LA KINGS 2023/4 Regular season discussion

[BaileyFan]

It's just unrealistic to sign him. Check out our current cap situation. There are 10 free agents on this current roster, most of which are due HEAVY raises.

I f***ing love him and wish he could be a King forever but he's gotta cash in.

And it's not just Roy, it's Gavrikov the following year, the price of having so many vets on the roster and refusing to play ELC/RFA youth before waivers, hence we're running into a cap wall. That was one of our biggest criticisms of Blake, he's put us to the end of our assets and picks and cap flexibility before even winning a round.

Edit: and thats not counting the AHL guys, theyr'e basically all RFAs/graduating ELCs, so even graduating kids replacing those guys may cost a raise.

I mean if Roy will take a sweetheart deal good for us but the low end of the comparables is Zub at 4 years x 4.6m, i can see him getting 6x5.5 easy and it's less that he's not worth it and more where is the money coming from?

Would be pretty nice to have Faber on a sweetheart contract right about now eh, but that would have required some vision...

I see no reason why Blake wouldn’t offer him 6x5.5 easily. Does it make sense with the cap? Not really but since when has that ever stopped him? Plus letting him walk so that they can play Spence AND Clarke would be very unKingslike.

They can find the money by bridging Byfield instead of locking him up to a value contract, jettisoning Spence before they have to pay him like with Vilardi, and running it back in net with Rittich and another bargain bin Talbot clone. The Kings will be all-in again next year with Gavrikov expiring and I don’t see Blake willingly parting with a veteran talent that’s been as reliable as Roy.

 

[tigermask48]

If Blake knew how good QB would be this year do you think he still acquires PLD?

Probably, because I think Blake specifically saw Center as the position of need.
Byfield for as good as he's been this year has done it all as a wing. As good as Vilardi has been this year, it's as a wing.
To me the question is why couldn't Fiala be the driving offensive force on that 2nd line? He was already doing that, and him and Danault seem to have some chemistry together. So was an elite 2C that important?
Of course this topic has been debated to death so... sorry if re-open this can of worms.

But yes I do think Blake still acquires PLD.

 

[chris kontos]

the way the kings have developed/treated bjornfot is awful.
jim fox and all the experts seem to forget that not being noticiable can be a desirable quality in a defenseman. too many examples present and past of guys like this that are very successful in the roles they are given and have long careers.

 

[tigermask48]

He reminds me a bit of Scuderi early in his career, doesn't do much of anything to stand out but also doesn't have any real blatant flaws. He's just kind of there and exists. And a little like the Penguins struggling to find a place for Scuderi, the Kings are struggling to find a place for Bjornfot.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I see no reason why Blake wouldn’t offer him 6x5.5 easily. Does it make sense with the cap? Not really but since when has that ever stopped him? Plus letting him walk so that they can play Spence AND Clarke would be very unKingslike.

They can find the money by bridging Byfield instead of locking him up to a value contract, jettisoning Spence before they have to pay him like with Vilardi, and running it back in net with Rittich and another bargain bin Talbot clone. The Kings will be all-in again next year with Gavrikov expiring and I don’t see Blake willingly parting with a veteran talent that’s been as reliable as Roy.

Okay, let me play with that exercise. Hope you don't mind the relative stream-of-consciousness.

Projected cap is 87.7.

signed forwards--Kopitar, Dubois, Fiala, Danault, Kempe, Moore -- 41,575,000
signed D--Doughty, Anderson, Roy at 5.5, Englund, Gavrikov -- 27,500,000
Signed G--lol jk there are no signed goalies

UFA--
Lewis, Arvidsson.
Copley, Talbot.
(Hodgson, Tynan,)

RFA--Lizotte, Grundstrom, Byfield, Kaliyev, JAD, -- (Turcotte, Thomas, Lee, Fagemo, Madden, Ward, Maltsev).
Moverare.
Spence.

Okay, so 18,625,000 to plug two goalies, 6 forwards, and a dman or two.

-----------

Have to assume Spence is a goner in that scenario so bring in Clarke's 863,333 to anchor the D. keep Toby as #7 at his 775 or preferably imo Moverare at lets say 875 if he stays. Let's also say we're incredibly lucky and are able to get two goalies again but for 3m. That completes the D and G so your'e rolling

Anderson-Doughty
Gavrikov-Roy
Englund-Clarke
Moverare

and Goalie A and Goalie B. I think that's cheap-ish and realistic. Which leaves us with 13,886,667 to sign 6 forwards. Eep.

Assuming
Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe
Fiala-Danault-Moore
Turcotte/Kaliyev-PLD-Laferriere
(Grundstrom)-Lizotte-UFA

I think unless you're using THomas in place of lewis Blake is gonna find a cheap-ish 4th liner to fill that role, won't use Fagemo et. al. there. I think Grundstrom will price himself out as someone will give him opportunity on a worse team for more money. I also wonder who along with Spence is trade bait--Kaliyev? Turcotte? Fagemo? so those spots are more flexible. But assuming Turcotte or Kaliyev bridging at about 1m, Laferriere's 875, Lizotte getting a decent raise (2m? tough to say), lets say thomas/ufa at 875, that leaves you 8,636,667 for Byfield and one more forward. Not TOO bad, but we also have to take off 2,725,000 for Provorov and Richards, leaving us just under 6m.

Not gonna complete the exercise becasue I have no clue what a Byfield bridge would look like but that MAY be more do-able than I initially thought, I thought there's no way in hell they could extend Roy buuuuuut with some of the usual shenanigans--being cheap on goalies notably--it's possible if tight and would also likely leave us at 21 players again, bad for injury (see: Gavrikov in NY).

Edit: also note i'm never great at cap math so I'm likely missing something

 

[Kudelski37]

Okay, let me play with that exercise. Hope you don't mind the relative stream-of-consciousness.

Projected cap is 87.7.

signed forwards--Kopitar, Dubois, Fiala, Danault, Kempe, Moore -- 41,575,000
signed D--Doughty, Anderson, Roy at 5.5, Englund, Gavrikov -- 27,500,000
Signed G--lol jk there are no signed goalies

UFA--
Lewis, Arvidsson.
Copley, Talbot.
(Hodgson, Tynan,)

RFA--Lizotte, Grundstrom, Byfield, Kaliyev, JAD, -- (Turcotte, Thomas, Lee, Fagemo, Madden, Ward, Maltsev).
Moverare.
Spence.

Okay, so 18,625,000 to plug two goalies, 6 forwards, and a dman or two.

-----------

Have to assume Spence is a goner in that scenario so bring in Clarke's 863,333 to anchor the D. keep Toby as #7 at his 775 or preferably imo Moverare at lets say 875 if he stays. Let's also say we're incredibly lucky and are able to get two goalies again but for 3m. That completes the D and G so your'e rolling

Anderson-Doughty
Gavrikov-Roy
Englund-Clarke
Moverare

and Goalie A and Goalie B. I think that's cheap-ish and realistic. Which leaves us with 13,886,667 to sign 6 forwards. Eep.

Assuming
Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe
Fiala-Danault-Moore
Turcotte/Kaliyev-PLD-Laferriere
(Grundstrom)-Lizotte-UFA

I think unless you're using THomas in place of lewis Blake is gonna find a cheap-ish 4th liner to fill that role, won't use Fagemo et. al. there. I think Grundstrom will price himself out as someone will give him opportunity on a worse team for more money. I also wonder who along with Spence is trade bait--Kaliyev? Turcotte? Fagemo? so those spots are more flexible. But assuming Turcotte or Kaliyev bridging at about 1m, Laferriere's 875, Lizotte getting a decent raise (2m? tough to say), lets say thomas/ufa at 875, that leaves you 8,636,667 for Byfield and one more forward. Not TOO bad, but we also have to take off 2,725,000 for Provorov and Richards, leaving us just under 6m.

Not gonna complete the exercise becasue I have no clue what a Byfield bridge would look like but that MAY be more do-able than I initially thought, I thought there's no way in hell they could extend Roy buuuuuut with some of the usual shenanigans--being cheap on goalies notably--it's possible if tight and would also likely leave us at 21 players again, bad for injury (see: Gavrikov in NY).

Edit: also note i'm never great at cap math so I'm likely missing something

The Kings cap situation might push the bonuses for Byfield and Talbot to next season. Not sure how that will work with people on LTIR this season. This would decrease the Kings spending ability for next season by 1-2 million if the bonuses are pushed to next season.

 

[Nasti]

Probably, because I think Blake specifically saw Center as the position of need.
Byfield for as good as he's been this year has done it all as a wing. As good as Vilardi has been this year, it's as a wing.
To me the question is why couldn't Fiala be the driving offensive force on that 2nd line? He was already doing that, and him and Danault seem to have some chemistry together. So was an elite 2C that important?
Of course this topic has been debated to death so... sorry if re-open this can of worms.

But yes I do think Blake still acquires PLD.

At what point does it fall on the shoulders of Kings development when seemingly no one is able to play the center position? The only ones who can were developed by others and Blake Lizotte.

 

[Fishhead]

At what point does it fall on the shoulders of Kings development when seemingly no one is able to play the center position? The only ones who can were developed by others and Blake Lizotte.

The blame does fall there, but I'm not sure how much that matters. Two cups were won with centers like Stoll, Carter, and Richards who came from other teams. What really matters is if you can develop enough players overall to bring in what you need when the time comes.

 

[tigermask48]

At what point does it fall on the shoulders of Kings development when seemingly no one is able to play the center position? The only ones who can were developed by others and Blake Lizotte.

That is the core of the issue I see with the trade. There were internal options available before something had to be done, switch Byfield to center, move Vilardi back to center, heck Iafallo was a center in college try him at 3C and keep Danault and Fiala together.

There was any myriad of possibilities before an external solution needed to be looked at, and you're right that does fall on the shoulders of the Kings development.

 

[bland]

Here in lies the rub, too may good RHD . You have Spence, Clarke, and a hypathetical Faber with only 1 spot available. Next year, say Roy leaves, now you have 2 top RHD', and only one can play. Someone is getting traded.

Clarke is years away from being a top pairing defender.

I am just as excited about Clarke as anyone, but sometimes I think the projections here aren't realistic. Clarke isn't a Doughty type that you can use to match up against the oppositions best, especially just out of the shute. He is an adequate defender who leans heavily to the offensive side of the game. His all-around game isn't as strong as Spence's yet. Its going to take some time with him once he hits the league and there will be some definite speedbumps.

It should be well worth it in the end, and honestly trading Roy to make space for him now would be the best bet.

 

[dman3474]

Also there is 2.75 million in dead cap to povorov and Mike Richard’s

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That is the core of the issue I see with the trade. There were internal options available before something had to be done, switch Byfield to center, move Vilardi back to center, heck Iafallo was a center in college try him at 3C and keep Danault and Fiala together.

There was any myriad of possibilities before an external solution needed to be looked at, and you're right that does fall on the shoulders of the Kings development.

Especially when they guy they traded for looks lke he'd be--and historically has been-- muchmore effective at wing, ironically

 

[Nasti]

The blame does fall there, but I'm not sure how much that matters. Two cups were won with centers like Stoll, Carter, and Richards who came from other teams. What really matters is if you can develop enough players overall to bring in what you need when the time comes.

I think there’s a big difference here. The cup teams had an internally developed number 1 center while the others were added as secondary players. The current Kings were desperate and made a crippling trade to fill a future void they couldn’t fill themselves due to bad development and lack of patience.

 

[Fishhead]

I think there’s a big difference here. The cup teams had an internally developed number 1 center while the others were added as secondary players. The current Kings were desperate and made a crippling trade to fill a future void they couldn’t fill themselves due to bad development and lack of patience.

Absolutely. But how many teams develop a number 1 center like Kopitar? Not to mention a Norris winner and a world-class goalie within a few years of each other? Very few. I'm sure the team's point of view is that they are better off trying to win with a Kopitar and Doughty in their 30's rather than trying to develop one. And you know what, they probably aren't wrong. It's difficult to win in the NHL.

Waiting for guys like Clarke and Byfield to develop into the top players needed to win a cup is a viable strategy, but are the odds as good as what they've done now? Impossible to say, but Doughty and Kopitar were obvious all-stars right off the bat while Clarke and Byfield have never been near that level as of yet.

I don't think it's a lack of patience, it's just a realistic view of how hard it is to draft and develop a great core like they did in the 2000's and how low the odds are of that happening again. We were spoiled by that and it's easy to say "Just do the same thing again", but if it was simple every team in the league would do it.

The odds of winning a cup are low regardless of which path they took, which led to their current decisions. Right or wrong, they have a really strong roster that can match up with anyone.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I think there’s a big difference here. The cup teams had an internally developed number 1 center while the others were added as secondary players. The current Kings were desperate and made a crippling trade to fill a future void they couldn’t fill themselves due to bad development and lack of patience.

Internally developed? Kopitar spent an extra year in Sweden, and then was clearly good enough to play the most minutes at forward right away. He was considered a ready made guy the day he was drafted though. Nothing even close to what Byfield looked like at the same age. I know he fell in the draft, but he was a coach's son, strapping young lad, playing against men in Sweden, blah, blah, blah. Him and Doughty were already ready to play. If there was development, it was at the NHL, on a team that wasn't trying to win. For good or bad, the last rebuild was not about those prospects. It was about adding some assets to do what they've done with the roster.

A crippling trade. Hyperbole doesn't prove your point here. 30 games into the trade, they're tied for 2nd overall. The trade hasn't bruised them yet, let alone crippled them.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

You would think some of these fans would be absolutely over the moon with a team like Ottawa...that "built the right way" that since 2016 had a #11, #4, #26, #19, #,3, #5, #28, and a #10.....but haven't done jackshit....at all, except "build the right way" but can't win any way.

Absolutely mindboggling

 

[Schrute farms]

A crippling trade. Hyperbole doesn't prove your point here. 30 games into the trade, they're tied for 2nd overall. The trade hasn't bruised them yet, let alone crippled them.

You keep mentioning this. The fact is the Kings are not winning BECAUSE of PLD -- they are winning IN SPITE OF his on ice efforts. They would be the same, arguably better, if they hadn't traded for PLD. Other players are causing the wins and them being high up in the standings.

I do agree that "crippling" is the wrong word to describe the trade. It's more handcuffed them -- preventing them from improving the goalie position and do anything else roster wise to improve the team. Everything has to go perfectly (injuries, performance, etc.) for them to potentially improve on last year's season.

 

[SmytheKing]

Absolutely. But how many teams develop a number 1 center like Kopitar? Not to mention a Norris winner and a world-class goalie within a few years of each other? Very few. I'm sure the team's point of view is that they are better off trying to win with a Kopitar and Doughty in their 30's rather than trying to develop one. And you know what, they probably aren't wrong. It's difficult to win in the NHL.

Waiting for guys like Clarke and Byfield to develop into the top players needed to win a cup is a viable strategy, but are the odds as good as what they've done now? Impossible to say, but Doughty and Kopitar were obvious all-stars right off the bat while Clarke and Byfield have never been near that level as of yet.

I don't think it's a lack of patience, it's just a realistic view of how hard it is to draft and develop a great core like they did in the 2000's and how low the odds are of that happening again. We were spoiled by that and it's easy to say "Just do the same thing again", but if it was simple every team in the league would do it.

The odds of winning a cup are low regardless of which path they took, which led to their current decisions. Right or wrong, they have a really strong roster that can match up with anyone.

Indeed. And those that do are teams that have mostly won the Stanley Cup in the last 15 years. The Kings, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh. You can see the formula. 12/15 winners all got their cores in the draft over 3-5 years. You could even make an argument for Boston making it 13/15. Vegas is the lone exception to the rule in a cap era and, if you want to get technical, they TOO got their core from a draft.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

You keep mentioning this. The fact is the Kings are not winning BECAUSE of PLD -- they are winning IN SPITE OF his on ice efforts. They would be the same, arguably better, if they hadn't traded for PLD. Other players are causing the wins and them being high up in the standings.

I do agree that "crippling" is the wrong word to describe the trade. It's more handcuffed them -- preventing them from improving the goalie position and do anything else roster wise to improve the team. Everything has to go perfectly (injuries, performance, etc.) for them to potentially improve on last year's season.

Take every other upper echelon team out there...and the bold, is literally describing them as well.

Take every contender, and that bold is also describing, what it's gonna take to win the Cup....

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Small sample size but I'm happy for Moverare and if they're not gonna keep him as a #7 hope he gets to stick in the NHL somewhere this year or next. He does nothing but look vanilla solid every callup.



At this point I hope they keep him and move Toby. He's a better "#7" type than Toby, who doesn't seem to be able to handle the in-and-out of a not-everyday-dman, he thrives on minutes, reps, and rhythm, and hope some other team finds value in him after this team dumpstered him so we can get something decent in return and watch him crush his #4 minutes somewhere else like everyone else.

 

[KingsFan7824]

You keep mentioning this. The fact is the Kings are not winning BECAUSE of PLD -- they are winning IN SPITE OF his on ice efforts. They would be the same, arguably better, if they hadn't traded for PLD. Other players are causing the wins and them being high up in the standings.

I do agree that "crippling" is the wrong word to describe the trade. It's more handcuffed them -- preventing them from improving the goalie position and do anything else roster wise to improve the team. Everything has to go perfectly (injuries, performance, etc.) for them to potentially improve on last year's season.

I keep mentioning it because it has to be mentioned, as you'd think the Kings were a bad team around here. If they only had Faber and Vilardi. They'd probably be 2nd overall in the league right now. Imagine that! I don't care why or how the Kings are where they are. If they didn't do the trade, they still wouldn't have any cap space, and would still have cheap old Talbot. Pretty clear they didn't want to spend a lot on a goalie. Call.what Vegas was able to do with Hill rare, but that's where the Kings went, good or bad.

No team can have too many things go wrong and still win. That doesn't only apply to the Kings because of Dubois. And everything hasn't gone completely smooth for them yet either. Dubois has been an issue, Fiala has 6g, Kempe has gone cold for a month, they haven't had much of a backup G, had a couple injuries, the home record isn't great.

Yet there they currently are. Well yeah, but that's because Byfield is actually producing, and Kopitar is still scoring, and Moore is having a career year, and Talbot is saving some shots. Any team can be good if they have some guys doing something.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I keep mentioning it because it has to be mentioned, as you'd think the Kings were a bad team around here. If they only had Faber and Vilardi. They'd probably be 2nd overall in the league right now. Imagine that! I don't care why or how the Kings are where they are. If they didn't do the trade, they still wouldn't have any cap space, and would still have cheap old Talbot. Pretty clear they didn't want to spend a lot on a goalie. Call.what Vegas was able to do with Hill rare, but that's where the Kings went, good or bad.

No team can have too many things go wrong and still win. That doesn't only apply to the Kings because of Dubois. And everything hasn't gone completely smooth for them yet either. Dubois has been an issue, Fiala has 6g, Kempe has gone cold for a month, they haven't had much of a backup G, had a couple injuries, the home record isn't great.

Yet there they currently are. Well yeah, but that's because Byfield is actually producing, and Kopitar is still scoring, and Moore is having a career year, and Talbot is saving some shots. Any team can be good if they have some guys doing something.

They're not a bad team but their sagging play as of late had a lot to do with the Dubois line's lack of production allowing teams to load up against the Kopitar line.

On a contender, you're going to be calling out fine-tuning things that will prepare you for a deep playoff run. The Kings position in the standings matters, but what happens next matters more. If they can't get Dubois going, then yet again they're going to have gigantic matchup problems in a playoff series. It's not unlike the LHD/goalie issues of years past, only this time they traded INTO the problem.

So you can continue to obtusely handwave the concerns as "who cares, they've got results" but that's missing the forest for the trees and I know you know that.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Always like Moverare over Bjornfot. Dude blocks shots and actually saw him throw a nasty cross check and was like who was that - I checked the number and it was him.

 

[Fishhead]

Indeed. And those that do are teams that have mostly won the Stanley Cup in the last 15 years. The Kings, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh. You can see the formula. 12/15 winners all got their cores in the draft over 3-5 years. You could even make an argument for Boston making it 13/15. Vegas is the lone exception to the rule in a cap era and, if you want to get technical, they TOO got their core from a draft.

You can say pretty much all teams get their cup cores from a draft, but I see what you are saying would add Colorado to that list, but also note that St. Louis is a recent exception as well.

So yeah, it's a great formula, but you have to be bang-on drafting and there is a lot of luck involved. The Penguins won the ultimate lottery to get Crosby. Chicago was 8% to win the lottery the year they took Kane. Kopitar fell to the Kings, and Quick was a third rounder. TB is probably the true dominant drafting team who just hit pick after pick.

The odds are just really low.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

You can say pretty much all teams get their cup cores from a draft, but I see what you are saying would add Colorado to that list, but also note that St. Louis is a recent exception as well.

So yeah, it's a great formula, but you have to be bang-on drafting and there is a lot of luck involved. The Penguins won the ultimate lottery to get Crosby. Chicago was 8% to win the lottery the year they took Kane. Kopitar fell to the Kings, and Quick was a third rounder. TB is probably the true dominant drafting team who just hit pick after pick.

The odds are just really low.

Not only that, there are simply no guarantees it works, (Edmonton, Detroit, Vancouver (finally trending up) Ottawa, etc etc.)