LA KINGS 2023/4 Regular season discussion

[DAkings20]

Safety aside, Kopi actually looks good with the neck guard!

 

[kilowatt]

Safety aside, Kopi actually looks good with the neck guard!

View attachment 764004

Love this

 

[johnjm22]

I know things are going well right now but PLD needs to pick it tf up....

He and Blake Lizotte have the exact same number of point, goals, and assists. Lizotte is a +6 and has a better faceoff record. PLD's line are the only Kings players who aren't a positive in terms of +/-.

I understand the advanced stats might be solid and understand the matchup nightmares having him on the team creates but at a certain point you have to produce if you're being paid $8.5 million. Need that line to get hot ASAP and would love to see it start with PL himself.

Fiala and PLD have the most negative GAE on the team at -2.3 (KF) and -1.4 (PLD). Dubios has the the second highest xG/60 on the team behind only Kempe.

So the production should come.

 

[King'sPawn]

Paul LaDue's contributions

 

[AbsentMojo]

Fiala and PLD have the most negative GAE on the team at -2.3 (KF) and -1.4 (PLD). Dubios has the the second highest xG/60 on the team behind only Kempe.

So the production should come.

It better.. they play against 3rd lines. Expecting a hell of lot more out that line

 

[Bandit]

So we have an all-star break in November? Weird shit.

 

[Fishhead]

It better.. they play against 3rd lines. Expecting a hell of lot more out that line

What makes you think this?

Here are who the Dubois line has been facing the most from ice time:

Philly - Farabee/Brink, who were 1 & 4 among forwards in ice time. So 1/2nd line

Ottawa - Tarasenko-Batherson-Norris, so 2nd line

Toronto - Domi/Kneiss with either Tavares or Kampf - They jumbled things. 2 line in ice time.

Vegas - Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault - 1st line.

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

I could keep going back but you get the point.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What makes you think this?

Here are who the Dubois line has been facing the most from ice time:

Philly - Farabee/Brink, who were 1 & 4 among forwards in ice time. So 1/2nd line

Ottawa - Tarasenko-Batherson-Norris, so 2nd line

Toronto - Domi/Kneiss with either Tavares or Kampf - They jumbled things. 2 line in ice time.

Vegas - Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault - 1st line.

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

I could keep going back but you get the point.

Most of those are on the road so it tells me that opposing coaches know what line they should be attacking

 

[FSL KINGS]

What makes you think this?

Here are who the Dubois line has been facing the most from ice time:

Philly - Farabee/Brink, who were 1 & 4 among forwards in ice time. So 1/2nd line

Ottawa - Tarasenko-Batherson-Norris, so 2nd line

Toronto - Domi/Kneiss with either Tavares or Kampf - They jumbled things. 2 line in ice time.

Vegas - Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault - 1st line.

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

I could keep going back but you get the point.

Remember back in 12-14 when the King's ran 3 strong lines. Other teams would shutdown 1 or 2 of the lines. The other line would light things up. It would occasionally rotate which line got the harder matches.

Pld, Not worried at all. New team, new coach, new system, new line mates. The depth is killing teams & Fiala isn't shooting at 3% forever.

Campbell on waivers!!! Still think he'd be a decent backup around 2.5M. You have to play defense in front of goalies. No way he turns into Cal 2.0.

 

[johnjm22]

I think his assumption was based on the false premise that the PLD line is the "3rd line". Therefore they must be facing other teams 3rd line.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Re: goalies there's just not a lot out there. This is why it's dangerous to go into the season with questionmarks at goaltender.

You can easily get a 1B/backup guy no problem, the league is littered with them. Even for the Kings, if Copley tanks out, you still have Rittich to try out and maybe even Portillo before you start giving up assets for 'similar' guys. I'm thinking of the various trade board threads where teams are trying to hold the Kings ransom for random dudes like Allen. At this point, both the Oilers and Kings would be on the lookout for a differencemaker, not a plug. Actually, the Oilers may just be looking to stop the bleeding/gain stability, but you get my drift.

If it makes us feel any better--kinda doesn't for me--as mad as I was that we couldnt swing the trade to position ourselves for Wallstedt, the Oilers actually traded out of it.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Re: goalies there's just not a lot out there. This is why it's dangerous to go into the season with questionmarks at goaltender.

You can easily get a 1B/backup guy no problem, the league is littered with them. Even for the Kings, if Copley tanks out, you still have Rittich to try out and maybe even Portillo before you start giving up assets for 'similar' guys. I'm thinking of the various trade board threads where teams are trying to hold the Kings ransom for random dudes like Allen. At this point, both the Oilers and Kings would be on the lookout for a differencemaker, not a plug. Actually, the Oilers may just be looking to stop the bleeding/gain stability, but you get my drift.

If it makes us feel any better--kinda doesn't for me--as mad as I was that we couldnt swing the trade to position ourselves for Wallstedt, the Oilers actually traded out of it.

Finding a starting goalie is priority 1, but King's need a good playoff goalie & not just an Allen. This option may not be available right now.

Next option if getting a #1 by the deadline falls through is getting a solid 1B, backup to finish the season & target a playoff caliber goalie in the off-season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Finding a starting goalie is priority 1, but King's need a good playoff goalie & not just an Allen. This option may not be available right now.

Next option if getting a #1 by the deadline falls through is getting a solid 1B, backup to finish the season & target a playoff caliber goalie in the off-season.

I agree, and the Kings have bought themselves some time with Talbot performing and incredible team defense. I think Copley will come around a bit. Unless one falters, I wouldn't go fishing for a minor upgrade. I really think the Kings need to keep their powder try for a true bluechipper. Just bringing it up because the Oilers are the opposite--out of time and ripe for the picking (and with ongoing sketchy defense). Kings don't want to be backed into the same corner. But it's kind of funny to see the preseason predictions say the Kings goaltending isn't enough and the Oilers is flipflop in disastrous manner

 

[johnjm22]

I think Reimer is very capable of getting hot. But I doubt LA would ever trade for him.

If the Kings can't get a Saros/Ullmark, they're going to have to find their version of Adin Hill; a seemingly average/undervalued goalie that can come out of nowhere.

I think Mrazek is another guy who can get hot. Anton Forsberg's numbers don't look good, but he's coming back from injury. Prior to the injury his analytics were top tier.

Allen has shown he can carry a team for short/medium stints. That's not a bad thing.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think Reimer is very capable of getting hot. But I doubt LA would ever trade for him.

If the Kings can't get a Saros/Ullmark, they're going to have to find their version of Adin Hill; a seemingly average/undervalued goalie that can come out of nowhere.

I think Mrazek is another guy who can get hot. Anton Forsberg's numbers don't look good, but he's coming back from injury. Prior to the injury his analytics were top tier.

Allen has shown he can carry a team for short/medium stints. That's not a bad thing.

Those guys seem to fit the analytics profiles the Kings look at, as well, like Korpi last year.

Just need to get closer to the deadline and cross-reference guys on teams missing the playoffs with good GSAA/low-danger save %s for a volume guy and good GSAA/high-danger for a game stealer haha

 

[Pucknut50]

What makes you think this?

Here are who the Dubois line has been facing the most from ice time:

Philly - Farabee/Brink, who were 1 & 4 among forwards in ice time. So 1/2nd line

Ottawa - Tarasenko-Batherson-Norris, so 2nd line

Toronto - Domi/Kneiss with either Tavares or Kampf - They jumbled things. 2 line in ice time.

Vegas - Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault - 1st line.

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

I could keep going back but you get the point.

I do notice the PLD line gives opponents chances, do to Fiala's high risk high reward style. Fiala is an unique player and line mates can get caught standing and watching not knowing where to go. One thing for sure is PLD, Fiala, and Laffy all like having the puck and that seems to be their strength so maybe move Kaliyev and move Laffy with Moore and Danault. "Arvy would be perfect on that PLD line"

 

[AbsentMojo]

I think his assumption was based on the false premise that the PLD line is the "3rd line". Therefore they must be facing other teams 3rd line.

Based on your understanding - can you rank the lines in terms of hardest matchups over the season? Do you think theyre getting the hardest matchups or 2nd hardest and so on

 

[Steve Zissou]

 

[AbsentMojo]

What makes you think this?

Here are who the Dubois line has been facing the most from ice time:

Philly - Farabee/Brink, who were 1 & 4 among forwards in ice time. So 1/2nd line

Ottawa - Tarasenko-Batherson-Norris, so 2nd line

Toronto - Domi/Kneiss with either Tavares or Kampf - They jumbled things. 2 line in ice time.

Vegas - Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault - 1st line.

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

Arizona - Keller/Schmaltz - 1st line

I could keep going back but you get the point.

Are you trying to say they on average have harder matchups than the kopi or danault lines?

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Not to mention that he was robbed of a couple points as well…

 

[Fishhead]

Are you trying to say they on average have harder matchups than the kopi or danault lines?

What? I'm not trying to say anything. In looking at their matchups on NST, they are playing first and second-line competition, not 3rd line competition. That's it. The other team's lines have been fluid anyways, as teams have been trying to adjust to the Kings and play catch-up. In most cases other teams are trying to match their 3rd line with Danault, and the Kings are trying to get him out there against the other team's top line when they can.

If you were facing the Kings, wouldn't you want your scorers out there vs the Dubois line? They are certainly the weakest defensively. Stupidly, teams are still trying to match their #1 line against Kopitar, thinking (wrongly) that they can win that matchup.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

How important is shot speed and location in the NHL?

Do teams with harder shots score more goals above expected? Where do the most goals come from? Let's break it down.

theathletic.com

This has a good breakdown that adds some additional context to why xG models, which are based primarily on shot location, are pretty helpful in telling us which team is generating higher-quality scoring chances, which team is limiting higher-quality scoring chances against, etc.

Where do the most goals come from?

Here’s the breakdown.

Net front: 48.1 percent of all goals
Slot: 13.9 percent
Left slot: 8.7 percent
Right slot: 8.1 percent
Crease: 4.3 percent

Only one other area is above 2.5 percent and that’s the center point (3.1 percent). There’s a reason this is universally known as the scoring chance area: it’s where 83 percent of goals have been scored over the last two seasons.

That’s not new information, but it is valuable to know the exact amount. It also pays to know how often shots go in from those zones and unsurprisingly those are the most high-danger areas.

Net front: 17.7 percent
Slot: 12.4 percent
Left slot: 9.1 percent
Right slot: 9.0 percent
Crease: 23.8 percent

Scoring goals from the scoring chance area (R2 of 0.17) is more repeatable than scoring goals from the outside (R2 of 0.11). It’s even more telling when looking at shot selection weighted by the likelihood of the puck going in. Expected goals from scoring chances (R2 of 0.62) is significantly more repeatable than expected goals from outside shots (R2 of 0.30). Finally, the ability to score above expected is more repeatable for scoring chance shots (R2 of 0.18) than outside shots (R2 of 0.11).

Not surprising in the slightest, but it does show that getting to the scoring chance area is a repeatable skill for teams, and that they’ll have more luck finishing those chances than from the outside. Shots from there are less reliable and less likely to be finished with the same consistency as the year prior.

 

[Jungle Boy]

Since I watched the heritage Classic (Edm x Cal) I been thinking about moving JAD (Calgary native) for AJ Greer. This move will bring size and thoughness to the lineup, opens up a spot for Turcotte if someone gets injured and could make Grundstrom expendable so we could use him as a piece to get a solid backup.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Since I watched the heritage Classic (Edm x Cal) I been thinking about moving JAD (Calgary native) for AJ Greer. This move will bring size and thoughness to the lineup, opens up a spot for Turcotte if someone gets injured and could make Grundstrom expendable so we could use him as a piece to get a solid backup.

Value for Grundstrom and JAD is pretty much the same.....seems like an extra step to make an extra step

 

[Johnny Utah]

Since I watched the heritage Classic (Edm x Cal) I been thinking about moving JAD (Calgary native) for AJ Greer. This move will bring size and thoughness to the lineup, opens up a spot for Turcotte if someone gets injured and could make Grundstrom expendable so we could use him as a piece to get a solid backup.

I would take Greer also but Calgary just picked him up.