Kyle Dubas - - Horrible Asset Mismanagement

[Pookie]

I'm not a dubas fan boy there's things i like what he did things i didn't like I'm just tired of the same people complaining about everything he does no matter what

that’s a fair point.

His past is not successful. The value of analytics... at least the way he manages/interprets and acts on them.... is nil. His team building has been a failure.

there’s really nothing left to discuss about the past.

so I’m choosing to meet this season with indifference.

whatever they do. Any move. Even winning the president’s trophy is getting a “yeah but wait for the playoffs” from me.

 

[ACC1224]

The point is he should of been traded last year... because even last year you knew you couldn't re-sign him.

That’s crazy

 

[The Blueprint]

After the Jones/Hamilton/Werenski deals I really hope management has a gameplan for Rielly.

No chance in hell we can afford extending him and we can't afford losing him for nothing.

Yikes

 

[Sypher04]

Just a few thoughts:
1) 7 vs 8 years. A 400k/year cap savings for 7 years (2.8M) is balanced out by paying a 37 year old, likely below replacement level, Hyman $5.1M in the 8th year. Is there really a net benefit?
2) That said, assuming the 8 year deal is better, then denying Edmonton this helps all the 30 other NHL teams by the same logic. However the highest benefit goes to their Pacific division opponents, then Central division and the lowest benefit to Eastern conference teams (i.e. Toronto).
3) However, if Toronto agrees to the sign and trade, then Edmonton arguably becomes stronger against the entire NHL, but that mostly affects Pacific division opponents, less so Central and barely affects Eastern conference teams.
4) With the sign and trade, in addition to being an Eastern conference team that is affected the least by Edmonton's benefit, Toronto will also gain a 5th and 7th round pick giving them a material advantage relative to the 30 other teams in the league. Draft picks are trade currency that mature into lottery tickets.

In trying to extract a "fair" price, Dubas was tunnel visioning on Edmonton's benefit and ignoring the fact that there are 30 other teams in the NHL to compete against, with half of those (Eastern conference) who's relative strength have a much higher impact on the Toronto Maple Leafs' future success. Or in colloquial terms, Dubas simply couldn't see the forest for the trees.

Even without the picks, by virtue of game theory, Toronto would have been in a better position than half the league by helping Edmonton with the sign and trade. In forgoing the two drafts picks, they also missed a free opportunity to improve their relative position against the entire league. These opportunities should not be squandered and that's why it is common to accept any compensation for a departing UFA (and it's unfathomable why the concept of fairness even entered the equation). One wonders what caused Dubas to act so stubborn and irrationally.

The lower cap hit over 8 is better for the GM signing it and potentially for the team as well

It's about creating a window where you can win. Lower cap hits help that immensely

Beyond that, the GM signing that deal is all but garaunteed to be gone in 7 years, so year 8 is of little consequence to him

 

[NJG]

That’s crazy

So trading a 5.5M player last year and getting back a player of the same value or prospects/picks is crazy? Letting him walk for nothing is crazy, just to keep him for another year.

 

[TMLAM34]

After the Jones/Hamilton/Werenski deals I really hope management has a gameplan for Rielly.

No chance in hell we can afford extending him and we can't afford losing him for nothing.

Yikes

Agreed. I understand the Makar contract but all these others at 9+ million is ridiculous. I thought we’d be able to re-sign Rielly at 7 million per but after seeing all these contracts handed out, there’s no chance.

 

[Stonehands1990]

After the Jones/Hamilton/Werenski deals I really hope management has a gameplan for Rielly.

No chance in hell we can afford extending him and we can't afford losing him for nothing.

Yikes

Well considering he’s nowhere nearly as good as any of those players and more like Torey Krug I don’t think we have anything to worry about

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Okay now do Dubas.

His worst move, so far, is signing Marner for $2 million too much... it's not even close.

 

[rumman]

That is the least. What is more is that maybe we didn't get some low pick, but we didn't volunteer to help another team's cap situation in exchange for lower round picks.

Dubas didn’t improve his team at the expense of not improving a team in a totally different conference, makes sense to me.

 

[rumman]

The point is he should of been traded last year... because even last year you knew you couldn't re-sign him.

And it’s Rielly’s turn at bat, I’m expecting another swing and a miss from boy wonder.

 

[TMLAM34]

You can re-sign Rielly. You’ll just need to replace Kerfoot with Robertson to free up about 2.5 million dollars which go into Rielly’s extension which still might not be enough at 7.5 given the recent contacts handed out to dmen. Our depth just keeps getting hit harder and harder to keep the same core that has accomplished nothing.

 

[harvestglen]

Just a few thoughts:
1) 7 vs 8 years. A 400k/year cap savings for 7 years (2.8M) is balanced out by paying a 37 year old, likely below replacement level, Hyman $5.1M in the 8th year. Is there really a net benefit?
2) That said, assuming the 8 year deal is better, then denying Edmonton this helps all the 30 other NHL teams by the same logic. However the highest benefit goes to their Pacific division opponents, then Central division and the lowest benefit to Eastern conference teams (i.e. Toronto).
3) However, if Toronto agrees to the sign and trade, then Edmonton arguably becomes stronger against the entire NHL, but that mostly affects Pacific division opponents, less so Central and barely affects Eastern conference teams.
4) With the sign and trade, in addition to being an Eastern conference team that is affected the least by Edmonton's benefit, Toronto will also gain a 5th and 7th round pick giving them a material advantage relative to the 30 other teams in the league. Draft picks are trade currency that mature into lottery tickets.

In trying to extract a "fair" price, Dubas was tunnel visioning on Edmonton's benefit and ignoring the fact that there are 30 other teams in the NHL to compete against, with half of those (Eastern conference) who's relative strength have a much higher impact on the Toronto Maple Leafs' future success. Or in colloquial terms, Dubas simply couldn't see the forest for the trees.

Agreed with pretty much all this. I'd also add that unlike the cap trades that Dubas has felt forced to make at a high price (see Foligno) and that appears to perhaps bear some influence on the high ask here, this move wouldn't entail changing the Leafs' cap situation at all. It would be a different story if a move involved your team having to take on a burden of some sort to help out another team, but that is not the case here.

 

[rumman]

You can re-sign Rielly. You’ll just need to replace Kerfoot with Robertson to free up about 2.5 million dollars which go into Rielly’s extension which still might not be enough at 7.5 given the recent contacts handed out to dmen. Our depth just keeps getting hit harder and harder to keep the same core that has accomplished nothing.

Fixing the cap is easy, trade 2 of the 4 and stop giving out overpayments to players who have proved nothing.

 

[Maple Leaf]

first for folfigno

absolutely amazing

 

[NJG]

You can re-sign Rielly. You’ll just need to replace Kerfoot with Robertson to free up about 2.5 million dollars which go into Rielly’s extension which still might not be enough at 7.5 given the recent contacts handed out to dmen. Our depth just keeps getting hit harder and harder to keep the same core that has accomplished nothing.

Why even handicap your team like that even more? You've already done that with 4 other players... Sandin can take Rielly's spot and with 7.5M-8.5M you could sign one 4M defenseman and another 4M forward... that sounds better to me then keeping Rielly.

 

[rumman]

Why even handicap your team like that even more? You've already done that with 4 other players... Sandin can take Rielly's spot and with 7.5M-8.5M you could sign one 4M defenseman and another 4M forward... that sounds better to me then keeping Rielly.

Dubas isn’t winning this game of musical chairs, it gets worse the longer it goes………

 

[The CyNick]

Well mine is: of an extent, amount, or intensity considerably above average.

Ok then you are not applying it properly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Also, foligno himself said he was injured before he came here.

He said that he reinjured an area that had preexisting issues, not that he was injured when traded. Foligno may have had some bumps and bruises, like literally every player of that type and age, but whatever you think it was, it was not something that would impact his ability to play here. He was fine to play every game for Columbus, other than the usual one before the trade deadline. He then had two weeks to rest up and heal a supposed "day-to-day" injury. At the point where he joins our team, Foligno was fine. Foligno was not an injured player. That's why he played once his quarantine was over, and that's why those were his best games with us.

Then he got injured in a game with us in late April. Then he got injured in a game with us in early May. Then he got injured in a game with us in late May in the playoffs. Which, for the record, was an entirely different half of his body as what you're claiming he had before. The reason he missed games with us, was injuries while with us. If those injuries with us did not happen, he would have been perfectly fine to play. Thus, to represent it as trading for an injured player is intentionally misleading.

These are the risks you take with a player type like this - a player type that everybody who now dislikes it with hindsight, wanted at the time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Here is one example from this season where TBL gets a pick for UFA rights negotiations (twitter post below).

You mean the only cherry picked example, in an ocean of players talking to other teams and walking for free. It was a 7th round pick.

If Leafs did not want to do a sign and trade for less than 2nd or 3rd then they should have at least gotten something for giving early negotiating rights to edmonton for hyman.

Early negotiating rights to Hyman weren't worth anything. What was worth something was a sign and trade that saved Edmonton ~500k for 8 years. The only way to give yourself a chance at making that transaction, is Hyman talking with Edmonton to work out the value of that 8th year.

 

[The Blueprint]

Well considering he’s nowhere nearly as good as any of those players and more like Torey Krug I don’t think we have anything to worry about

He's closer to that group than he is to Krug. Even if he signs around 7.5 that's too much for us. I don't think he takes a discount.

 

[Bomber0104]

He's closer to that group than he is to Krug. Even if he signs around 7.5 that's too much for us. I don't think he takes a discount.

Prior to this year people were brushing off Hyman's eventual UFA contract the same way.

Rielly is going to get paid, and as it stands right now it likely won't be from us.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Ok then you are not applying it properly.

I am applying the way it is proscribed in the dictionary. You probably he Ave a different meaning.

 

[Garthinater]

He said that he reinjured an area that had preexisting issues, not that he was injured when traded. Foligno may have had some bumps and bruises, like literally every player of that type and age, but whatever you think it was, it was not something that would impact his ability to play here. He was fine to play every game for Columbus, other than the usual one before the trade deadline. He then had two weeks to rest up and heal a supposed "day-to-day" injury. At the point where he joins our team, Foligno was fine. Foligno was not an injured player. That's why he played once his quarantine was over, and that's why those were his best games with us.

Then he got injured in a game with us in late April. Then he got injured in a game with us in early May. Then he got injured in a game with us in late May in the playoffs. Which, for the record, was an entirely different half of his body as what you're claiming he had before. The reason he missed games with us, was injuries while with us. If those injuries with us did not happen, he would have been perfectly fine to play. Thus, to represent it as trading for an injured player is intentionally misleading.

These are the risks you take with a player type like this - a player type that everybody who now dislikes it with hindsight, wanted at the time.

Columbus said foligno had an injury before they traded him. If he was healthy, they would have scratched him.

Dubas paid a 1st round pick for an injured rental.

You can write as many sentences and paragraphs as you like but you cant change the facts.

 

[ACC1224]

This makes absolutely no sense.

The role of the gm is to improve our team.

How is refusing 2 free draft picks helping us get better? Edmontons cap is of no concern here.

These dubas fan boys are so lost its hilarious.

I was behind Dubas taking a stance assuming they may lose out on a 7th.
No idea how you turn down two picks though. Has it come out what exactly he was looking for?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas paid a 1st round pick for an injured rental.

He did not; that's being intentionally misleading. He traded for a player who was healthy and fully able to play when he joined us post-quarantine, who then got injured while in games with us, resulting in missed games.