Kyle Dubas Discussion

[ToneDog]

Tampa's best attribute was offense. That seemed to be all that mattered when you went around falsely labelling the Leafs.

You were talking about Dubas/Keefe, and they've had a grand total of 5 playoff games, against the best defensive team in the league, and a goalie playing out of his mind. They barely lost. A little premature to be drawing conclusions.

Tampa also got offence from their D. The Leafs got 1 goal from Ceci.

We get another kick at the can starting in two weeks. Dubas has upgraded our D, added some grit, leadership, forward depth and Keefe gets a full season. Lots to be positive about. If they can get out of the Canadian division I will call the season a success. If not, let the excuses begin.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tampa also got offence from their D.

That's already included as part of their offense.

 

[The Podium]

Brodie, Bogo in - Barrie, Ceci out. Unless you think Lehtonen is good defensive depth or Sandin/Lily are ready to make the jump, not sure why you think he addressed defensive depth. We might still be in a pickle if Muzzin goes down.

Lehtonen is great defensive depth and has a shot to be a top 4D while Sandin and Lilly are a year older.

The big difference is that if Muzzin goes down, the Leafs have Brodie or Bogo as defensive D to replace his usage. If Rielly goes down the Leafs have Sandin and Lehtonen to replace his usage.

This season the defensive depth is more versatile and Marincin is pushed further down the depth chart.

As an aside, Dubas went all out trying to cover depth with Dell as a 3rd string and way too many capable NHL forwards.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We're still scoring goals at will. The difference is now we actually have defense.

That's not true. Tampa (you know, that team that just won the cup) spends the most on their forward group, and there are about 6-7 teams near us. This despite the fact that we just signed multiple franchise forwards over the last couple years. There is nothing unusual about our positional cap distribution, and unlike some teams, we actually get elite scoring from that spending.

Offense and goaltending have actually proven to be most important.

Except they weren't. The only thing they were winning more of was shootouts.

This is not even close to true. We were better at pretty much everything under Keefe. If anything, Babcock sabotaged our playoffs with stupid decisions and a highly questionable system.

There is no basis to claim that Dubas and Keefe's strategy is "to clearly offense". Unlike Lou, Dubas has actually addressed the defense quite significantly. Unlike Babcock, Keefe actually got good defensive results.

Yeah, it's not like the best offensive team in the league just won the cup or something... oh wait.

-He made the logical choice for backup goalie, that every GM would have made. Neither would have played anywhere close to the 2017-2018 McBackup Vezina level. We now have a better backup than either of them.
-Dubas has always valued leadership and toughness.
-He could and he did sign everybody, despite difficult negotiations.
-Telling Nylander we had no plans to trade him helped him feel comfortable signing long-term, and everybody involved knows plans can change over time. Dubas is not limited by anything.

Kadri was not "one of the best contracts in the league"...

There's really no evidence this is true. It's just something you've arbitrarily come up with, so you can exclude when the team was actually relatively healthy and completely dominated.

Ah yes, I'm sure there's no reason you're starting at the point that our team got decimated by injury, and Andersen fell off a cliff...

Offense has won 2 or 3 years out of over 100 ..
Tampa is at 45M per on CAP as per CAPFriendly (you can't count LTIR ) ...
Just FACTs please not opinion thanks

 

[Dekes For Days]

Offense has won 2 or 3 years out of over 100 ..

That is not even close to true. Looking at the last 13 Cup winners, and their seasonal rankings in offense, defense, and goaltending, Cup winners on average have been the best in goaltending, and then offense, and then defense. More teams have won with offense or goaltending as their best attribute than defense.

Tampa is at 45M per on CAP as per CAPFriendly

Only with Kucherov on LTIR, and we don't know how Tampa will do without their best forward. Even if you don't count Tampa, fact remains that more teams are close to us than you suggested, and Toronto has got some of the best return on that investment. Our positional cap allocation is not currently an issue.

 

[The Podium]

Offense has won 2 or 3 years out of over 100 ..
Tampa is at 45M per on CAP as per CAPFriendly (you can't count LTIR ) ...
Just FACTs please not opinion thanks

Maybe you should take your own advice and post FACTs not opinion. Did you go through the 100 year history of the NHL and check how many Teams won the cup that were mainly defensive vs offensive? I can guarantee that it’s more than 2 or 3. Hell that’s how many there have been in the last decade. D, goaltending and physicality won in the 90s and 2000s, before and after it was usually the most balanced team.

 

[Pookie]

The name of the game is winning and it's hard to escape the conclusion that they were doing more winning under the previous GM.

Except they weren't. The only thing they were winning more of was shootouts.

Lou's last season here, his team went to OT 19 times. A rate of 23% of the total games played.

Dubas' last season, his team went to OT 17 times. A rate of 24% of the total games played last season.

As you might expect with a better performing team, Lou's collection of players had a stronger will to win. They didn't look as good on paper but managed to get it done.

And Lou went to the Island and took two of those gritty guys with him. And has outperformed the Leafs there despite losing Tavares.

There is no escaping the conclusion that Lou has outperformed Dubas thus far. Try as you might.

 

[4thline]

Offense has won 2 or 3 years out of over 100 ..
Tampa is at 45M per on CAP as per CAPFriendly (you can't count LTIR ) ...
Just FACTs please not opinion thanks

FACT - the last 10 teams to play in the Stanley cup finals have done so with a playoff top 6 defensemen (by ice-time, majority of games played) that have averaged 19.07 against an 81.5 million cap.

Leaf top 6 for this season will be ~19.5

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lou's last season here, his team went to OT 19 times. Dubas' last season, his team went to OT 17 times.

Not sure what this has to do with anything. Dubas' teams have won more. Dubas' team has the best finish in ROW - actual hockey, despite Lou having basically every advantage possible. Lou got good shootout results, which is essentially a coin flip and has nothing to do with Lou or the quality of the team.

As you might expect with a better performing team, Lou's collection of players had a stronger will to win. They didn't look as good on paper but managed to get it done.

They did not have a "stronger will to win", and they didn't "get it done". They had an inflated point total in one singular season, mainly because our journeyman backup goalie waiver claim fluked into a Vezina-quality season, after Lou's original backup choice bombed.

There is no escaping the conclusion that Lou has outperformed Dubas thus far.

Dubas has done a way better job than Lou did. It's time to move on from the Lou lovefest.

 

[Pookie]

Not sure what this has to do with anything. Dubas' teams have won more. Dubas' team has the best finish in ROW - actual hockey, despite Lou having basically every advantage possible. Lou got good shootout results, which is a essentially a coin flip and has nothing to do with Lou or the quality of the team.

They did not have a "stronger will to win", and they didn't "get it done". They had an inflated point total in one singular season, mainly because our journeyman backup goalie waiver claim fluked into a Vezina-quality season, after Lou's original backup choice bombed.

Dubas has done a way better job than Lou did.

of course dekes... of course.

 

[The Podium]

of course dekes... of course.

He’s right pooks...

 

[Pookie]

He’s right pooks...

Of course.

Lou has increased his point total by +23 in his first season with the Islanders.

Dubas declined his by 5.

Lou’s Islanders team won 3 playoff rounds in 2 seasons making it to the conference final.

Dubas had a first round exit and failed to qualify.

Of course. Dubas is clearly better.

Now if you don’t mind, I think it would be more productive for me to find an anti-masker and spend the day showing him medical studies than it would be to have Deksie acknowledge that a conference final is more successful than missing the playoffs.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Maybe you should take your own advice and post FACTs not opinion. Did you go through the 100 year history of the NHL and check how many Teams won the cup that were mainly defensive vs offensive? I can guarantee that it’s more than 2 or 3. Hell that’s how many there have been in the last decade. D, goaltending and physicality won in the 90s and 2000s, before and after it was usually the most balanced team.

Hockey is much less then it once was when gladiator warriors won every year up to AROUND 2000 ... da more we had on our team better chance for victory in playoffs when refs threw away da whistle ... it is why best hockey line ever was Rocket Mess and Gordie bottom line no one could match their vicious will to win ... each of those guys would literally take a bullet to win ... while no one else likely will ever match them in both skill and will to win combined we need a few more guys who have da skill but have an greater will to win then everyone else on ice with them

 

[Dekes For Days]

a conference final is more successful than missing the playoffs.

Leafs didn't miss the playoffs, and there's a lot more to evaluating a GM than the cherry picked, misleading way you are looking at it.

 

[zeke]

It's actually incredible the job Dubas has done, when you consider he didn't have the benefit of elite players on ELCs like Lou did, and he's still managed to upgrade the team from top to bottom, adding both more elite talent and more depth, making it more skilled, faster, better defensively, and bigger, too.

Lou's Leafs → Dubes' Leafs

(Asterisk = Entry Level Contract)
(Bold = replaced player)

Matthews* 20yrs, 6'3"/220 → Matthews 23yrs, 6'3"/220
Marner* 20yrs, 6'0"/175 → Marner 23yrs, 6'0"/175
Nylander* 21yrs, 6'0"/195 → Nylander 24yrs, 6'0"/195

Kadri 27yrs, 6'0"/190 → Tavares 30yrs, 6'1"/215
Hyman 25yrs, 6'1"/210 → Hyman 28yrs, 6'1"/210
VanRiemsdyk 28yrs, 6'3"/215 → Mikheyev 26yrs, 6'3"/195

Bozak 31yrs, 6'1"/200 → Kerfoot 26yrs, 5'11"/185
Marleau 38yrs, 6'2"/215 → Thornton 41yrs, 6'4"/220
Brown 23yrs, 6'0"/185 → Vesey 27yrs, 6'3"/205

Plekanec 35yrs, 5'11"/190 → Spezza 37yrs, 6'3"/215
Komarov 30yrs, 5'11"/210 → Simmonds 32yrs, 6'2"/210
Moore 37yrs, 6'0"/190 → Boyd 27yrs, 6'0"/190

Gauthier 23yrs, 6'5"/235 → Engvall 24yrs, 6'5"/215
Kapanen* 21yrs, 6'1"/195 → Robertson* 19yrs, 5'9"/165
Johnsson* 23yrs, 5'10"/195 → Barabanov* 26yrs, 5'11"/195
Leivo 24yrs, 6'2"/195 → Anderson 22yrs, 5'11"/190



Rielly 23yrs, 6'1"/215 → Rielly 26yrs, 6'1"/215
Gardiner 27yrs, 6'2"/205 → Muzzin 31yrs, 6'3"/215

Hainsey 36yrs, 6'3"/205 → Brodie 30yrs, 6'1"/185
Zaitsev 26yrs, 6'2"/190 → Holl 28yrs, 6'4"/210

Dermott* 21yrs, 6'1"/205 → Dermott 24yrs, 6'1"/205
Polak 31yrs, 6'2"/240 → Bogosian 30yrs, 6'3"/225

Carrick* 23yrs, 5'11"/190 → Lehtonen* 26yrs, 6'0"/195
Borgman* 22yrs, 6'0"/200 → Sandin* 20yrs, 5'11"/185



Anderson 28yrs → Anderson 31yrs
McElhinney 34yrs → Campbell 28yrs
Pickard 25yrs → Dell 31yrs

​

Last year was tainted by a big dip in goaltending (which will likely correct itself), massive injuries (which will likely correct themselves), and an inexplicable self-immolation by Mad Coach Babcock (which has already been corrected).....but we really shouldn't let that taint the pretty incredible job Dubey has done.

And now we really get to see the benefits when the next wave of ELCs start rolling into the lineup - Robertson, Sandin, Amirov, Liljegren, Hirvonen, Neimola, etc. over the next few years.

 

[Pookie]

Leafs didn't miss the playoffs, and there's a lot more to evaluating a GM than the cherry picked, misleading way you are looking at it.

dude. If you want any credibility, you’ve got to acknowledge a basic fact.

there were playoffs last year. We weren’t in them.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Kadri was not "one of the best contracts in the league"....

That is simply incorrect

 

[Dekes For Days]

there were playoffs last year. We weren’t in them.

There were playoffs last year, and we were factually a part of them. The NHL decides, not you.

That is simply incorrect

It's not. Kadri's value has been massively exaggerated in hindsight. He was a middle-six player, highly reliant on the PP, coming off a disappointing season and two straight playoff suspensions.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

There were playoffs last year, and we were factually a part of them. The NHL decides, not you.

It's not. Kadri's value has been massively exaggerated in hindsight.

I disagree. Quite obviously underrated. Over ppg in playoffs. 30 goal pace 3 out of last four years.
terrific contract. That’s okay though.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

You were talking about Dubas/Keefe, and they've had a grand total of 5 playoff games, against the best defensive team in the league, and a goalie playing out of his mind. They barely lost. A little premature to be drawing conclusions.

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying here, but the "they barely lost" statement doesn't hold much water here. I get why you're using it. It's a way for fans to feel better about losses. But at the end of the day, a loss is a loss. Slovakia can say "well, we barely lost to Canada in the World Juniors" but in reality, they're still a team that isn't in medal contention. Toronto can feel even worse. They lost to Columbus. Neither team is in "medal" contention.

 

[The Podium]

Hockey is much less then it once was when gladiator warriors won every year up to AROUND 2000 ... da more we had on our team better chance for victory in playoffs when refs threw away da whistle ... it is why best hockey line ever was Rocket Mess and Gordie bottom line no one could match their vicious will to win ... each of those guys would literally take a bullet to win ... while no one else likely will ever match them in both skill and will to win combined we need a few more guys who have da skill but have an greater will to win then everyone else on ice with them

You do realize that the will to win and defense aren’t the same thing? Yes this team needs a truck load more intensity and killer instinct. Doesn’t mean it has to be at the expense of offense....

 

[LeafsNation75]

It was more the Marleau and Zaitsev contracts that impacted those.

6 million for a 4th liner(in his 3rd year) and 4.5 million for a 3rd pairing dman.

That's horrible value.

At least when Dubas signed Thornton he only gave him 1 year at $700,000 AAV.

Lamoriello signing Marleau was 3 years and $6.25 million AAV.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Let’s see what Lou does moving forward, he came in to Toronto and did the same thing. It’s easy when you have no expectations and all the cap space in the world. As of now his best player remains unsigned and he has very limited cap space.

Dubas improve ROW last year and was the same as the 105 season this year. Unless you value SOs that doesn’t seem like a regression.

Weird that you think I’m an anti-masker. Don’t see how that is connected at all.

The mistake Lou made not getting Nylander signed to a contract extension 1 year before he was an RFA in July 2017, he did the exact same thing with Barzal. Despite him currently being an RFA today he could have signed him to a new contract starting on July 1, 2019 and like with Nylander he never did that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Over ppg in playoffs. 30 goal pace 3 out of last four years.

He had 10 points in 19 playoff games, and had just been suspended for two playoffs in a row. He hit 30 goals by heavily relying on the PP, which was driven by Marner, and was coming off a mediocre season where he did not come close to that mark. The contract was pretty good, but it was not nearly as special as some people around here seem to think, based on the return they expected. I understand people have opinions on the fit of the return, and it sucked seeing Kadri have the luckiest year of his career this year, but the value of the return was perfectly fine.

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying here, but the "they barely lost" statement doesn't hold much water here. I get why you're using it. It's a way for fans to feel better about losses. But at the end of the day, a loss is a loss.

While it's true that a loss is a loss in the sense of whether you still have the opportunity to win, it's not just about "feeling better". It's about properly evaluating the team. If we were getting swept in the playoffs every year, that would indicate different and bigger concerns than taking teams (mostly the elite powerhouses of the league) to the limit.

 

[Pookie]

No one on here is calling Dubas a soon to be Hall of Fame GM.

If anything we are comparing what he's done in Toronto to what Lamoriello has done in Toronto.

right. Which clearly hasn’t been good enough.