Kyle Connor vs Jesper Bratt

[Clam Jensen]

He's spent the last two summers ripping on the Jets and their players. I suppose it's possible he hates New Jersey more, but the poll results are pretty conclusive here.

I don’t disagree that Connor is better; Bratt has to prove it for at least another season or 2…but 2-3 tiers above is hyperbolic garbage.

 

[TS Quint]

You asked about impact on winning hockey games - is outscoring the opponent not impactful?

When Connor is on the ice the Jets have been outscored by the opponent, but the inverse is true with Connor off the ice. Meanwhile, the exact opposite is true with respect to Bratt and the Devils.

But to say Connor is responsible for the entire ice and everything that happens on it is clearly not true.

I don't think I would generally get much argument to say that C/D Have far larger impacts on the ice than a winger. Centres have the middle of the ice and defensemen control half the defensive ice each including the middle. The middle of the ice being most important.

Connor not only plays the wing but he is also the F1 meaning he is first on the other team's defense in Connors offensive end which usually makes him last back and essentially having the least defensive impact on the ice. Sure Connor is pretty good for transporting the puck up the ice but as a winger he is given less opportunity to create turnovers in his own end. Like most teams the bulk defensive impact is held by the C/D to cause turnovers.

Connor's offense speaks for its self.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

But to say Connor is responsible for the entire ice and everything that happens on it is clearly not true.

I don't think I would generally get much argument to say that C/D Have far larger impacts on the ice than a winger. Centres have the middle of the ice and defensemen control half the defensive ice each including the middle. The middle of the ice being most important.

Connor not only plays the wing but he is also the F1 meaning he is first on the other team's defense in Connors offensive end which usually makes him last back and essentially having the least defensive impact on the ice. Sure Connor is pretty good for transporting the puck up the ice but as a winger he is given less opportunity to create turnovers in his own end. Like most teams the bulk defensive impact is held by the C/D to cause turnovers.

Connor's offense speaks for its self.

Bratt plays the same position but has a significantly positive impact on 5v5 outcomes. It's less about saying Connor is responsible, but to look at the very real impact that Bratt has when he's on the ice.

 

[Lays]

Start by picking any thread from last off season where you whined about Scheifele being voted ahead of Zibby for weeks on end in the polls section.

And look who ended up right

 

[TS Quint]

Bratt plays the same position but has a significantly positive impact on 5v5 outcomes. It's less about saying Connor is responsible, but to look at the very real impact that Bratt has when he's on the ice.

Prove it.

considering Connor’s position and strategic use is meant to produce offense his impact on the ice is huge.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Prove it.

considering Connor’s position and strategic use is meant to produce offense his impact on the ice is huge.

Look at the devils 5v5 goal differential with and without Bratt on the ice.

It's great that Connor scores goals, but it's not all that helpful when the other team scores more.

 

[cneely]

Impact on the ice? You mean like outscoring the opponent when you are on the ice?

5v5 numbers over the last 3 years:
Devils w/ Bratt +11 GD (120GF 109GA)
Devils w/o Bratt -101 GD (285GF 386GA)

Jets w/ Connor -6 GD (146GF 152GA)
Jets w/o Connor: +4GD (257GF 253GA)

So Bratt makes the Devils waaaay better, and the Jets are actually worse with Connor.

Um.... That's not actually how that works lol.

There are a lot of variables that need to be taken into consideration if you are comparing players on different teams. Advanced stats, like regular stats, are fine for adding additional insight and context into how a player plays, but cannot make definitive assessments.

You asked about impact on winning hockey games - is outscoring the opponent not impactful?

When Connor is on the ice the Jets have been outscored by the opponent, but the inverse is true with Connor off the ice. Meanwhile, the exact opposite is true with respect to Bratt and the Devils.

Are they on the ice by themselves?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Um.... That's not actually how that works lol.

There are a lot of variables that need to be taken into consideration if you are comparing players on different teams. Advanced stats, like regular stats, are fine for adding additional insight and context into how a player plays, but cannot make definitive assessments.



Are they on the ice by themselves?

There is nothing "advanced" about goal differential lol.

 

[cneely]

There is nothing "advanced" about goal differential lol.

LMAO Nope. Exactly why I included regular stats in my statement. If anything, "non-advanced" stats are subject to far more noise due to luck and other variables.

xGD is probably something that would be considered an advanced stat though, no? You had discussed a difference in xGD.

 

[ninetyeight]

Are they on the ice by themselves?

Are you suggesting that Bratt has better team mates?

 

[cneely]

Are you suggesting that Bratt has better team mates?

I'm not sure. Maybe better systems?
Point is there are simply too many variables.

Also why you can't just look at the fact that Connor scored more points and call him a better player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

LMAO Nope. Exactly why I included regular stats in my statement. If anything, "non-advanced" stats are subject to far more noise due to luck and other variables.

xGD is probably something that would be considered an advanced stat though, no? You had discussed a difference in xGD.

I haven't even mentioned xGD

I'm not sure. Maybe better systems?

Is that why the devils get dominated without Bratt on the ice?

 

[cneely]

I haven't even mentioned xGD


Is that why the devils get dominated without Bratt on the ice?

My bad. You did in the trade thread.

I'm not sure why they get dominated without Bratt on the ice. If I could definitively know that, I may not be working as an accountant, lol.

 

[Phrasing]

Sweeping generalisations are always a way to make yourself look very smart.

I thought Canucks fans wanted to Trade him and Miller in order to be the Belle of the Draft Ball?

Pot calling kettle black

 

[heretik27]

And look who ended up right

Who ended up right? It wasn't you who was expecting Zibby to be a 50 goal scorer because of a statistical anomaly of a season. Also, it's really weird to say you never harped on Jets players, but turn around and contradict yourself in the very next post. I'm going to let it go there because anything more is off topic.

 

[Xirik]

Pot calling kettle black

if you can't tell the difference between those two posts then..wow

 

[Phrasing]

if you can't tell the difference between those two posts then..wow

Are you contending both aren’t generalizations about a fan base? One being more overt doesn’t change that fact. “wow”….

 

[Xirik]

Are you contending both aren’t generalizations about a fan base? One being more overt doesn’t change that fact. “wow”….

So you don't get it.

Got it.

 

[NJ Devil]

And look who ended up right

Scheifele just had the better season on a worse team. Same amount of goals in 14 less games

 

[Clam Jensen]

Scheifele just had the better season on a worse team. Same amount of goals in 14 less games

Don’t bother.

 

[North Cole]

I haven't even mentioned xGD


Is that why the devils get dominated without Bratt on the ice?

His most common centres over that time frame were Hischier and Zacha, so is Hughes getting caved in that hard without Bratt? I guess it's good that he's +GD and Connor is -GD when they're both on the ice, but the off ice stats don't seem that important. One team has adequate depth and a top 10 goalie when Connor is off the ice and the other team has a bunch of replacement level players outside of 3 or 4 forwards and a revolving door of garbage goaltending.

To me, this just seems to say:
Connor is worse against elite talent than the rest of his team is against depth.
Bratt is better against depth than the rest of his team is vs elite talent.

And then trying to conclude that Bratt > Connor on the ice despite them playing different levels of competition that is borne out by the deployment difference.

 

[Lays]

Scheifele just had the better season on a worse team. Same amount of goals in 14 less games

Mika Zibanejad just had 12 points in 6 elimination games. Was 3rd in playoff scoring after McDrai when NYR were eliminated

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Mika Zibanejad just had 12 points in 6 elimination games. Was 3rd in playoff scoring after McDrai when NYR were eliminated

Scheifele had an equally great statline when the Jets made the 3rd round - 14 goals in 17 games

 

[NJ Devil]

Mika Zibanejad just had 12 points in 6 elimination games. Was 3rd in playoff scoring after McDrai when NYR were eliminated

Very true. I was speaking strictly to the regular season

To be fair the Rangers played at another level after the Pittsburgh series. We'll need to see if they can keep that up long-term

 

[Regal]

Scheifele just had the better season on a worse team. Same amount of goals in 14 less games

They had near equal points per game, and Scheifele was brutal outside of his scoring.