Post-Game Talk: Kraken 4 - Jets 3

[DRW204]

Pionk drives me to gin. Such inconsistency.....

there was a lot of talk about unpredictability, or tough playing with others .... sometimes i am like do you watch neil pionk play defense?

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

No, it's a valid question. Be nice to explore it. See what Connor can produce on the second line, if there isn't much drop off then maybe the first line winning more matchups makes it a net benefit

He produces very well whenever he plays on the 2nd line. I was even looking back in this first 2 years, and whenever he was either coming up, or being demoted to the 3rd and 4th lines, he rang the bell and produced.

If he played with Names and Iaffalo, he'd still produce, they'd cover for his defensive weaknesses. He needs a half-decent passer, and a guy who bangs more. I've never found that putting him with two other scorers is the way to go.

Of course, the new narrative would be how he needs Names and Iaffalo to do ALL of the work, but... It's also funny how the other guy routinely can't get the 2nd power play unit going, and his own line, being the great line driver and all. Kyle Connor isn't the Pino Noir that people (Ehlers' fans) make him out to be, it's the other guy that needs X,Y & Z to happen to make him look good.

 

[KingBogo]

He produces very well whenever he plays on the 2nd line. I was even looking back in this first 2 years, and whenever he was either coming up, or being demoted to the 3rd and 4th lines, he rang the bell and produced.

If he played with Names and Iaffalo, he'd still produce, they'd cover for his defensive weaknesses. He needs a half-decent passer, and a guy who bangs more. I've never found that putting him with two other scorers is the way to go.

Of course, the new narrative would be how he needs Names and Iaffalo to do ALL of the work, but... It's also funny how the other guy routinely can't get the 2nd power play unit going, and his own line, being the great line driver and all. Kyle Connor isn't the Pino Noir that people (Ehlers' fans) make him out to be, it's the other guy that needs X,Y & Z to happen to make him look good.

I appreciate Dale all the work you have put in to try and balance the Connor Vs. Ehlers debate as much as I wish it would just go away. A team needs 8 wingers and they are our 2 best, after that it comes down to stacking lines or balancing lines and handling X amount of minutes while being most effective. Saying that I never expect this debate to go away until one isn't on the team, and even then it will flair up occasionally over the next few years.

 

[Jet]

I appreciate Dale all the work you have put in to try and balance the Connor Vs. Ehlers debate as much as I wish it would just go away. A team needs 8 wingers and they are our 2 best, after that it comes down to stacking lines or balancing lines and handling X amount of minutes while being most effective. Saying that I never expect this debate to go away until one isn't on the team, and even then it will flair up occasionally over the next few years.

Yeah I'm not participating any more. I've said my piece and it's just becoming maddeningly cyclical.

Not going to change anyone's mind and sure as hell aren't going to convince the Jets coaches to do anything other than what they want to do.

So, I'm just going to relax and enjoy the fact that they both play on my favorite team.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

I appreciate Dale all the work you have put in to try and balance the Connor Vs. Ehlers debate as much as I wish it would just go away. A team needs 8 wingers and they are our 2 best, after that it comes down to stacking lines or balancing lines and handling X amount of minutes while being most effective. Saying that I never expect this debate to go away until one isn't on the team, and even then it will flair up occasionally over the next few years.

Believe you me, I know it's not a good look.

If I felt that it was a balanced effort in this ongoing debate, or better yet, everyone's rooting for everyone on the team (past and present) which will never happen, I would have only been an occasional lurker and nothing more.

I've rarely heard any of the Kyle Connor fans mount a preemptive attack on Ehlers, most of them seem to like him quite a bit, and generally walk back whatever it is that they're saying - should they be critical of him - to appease the other side; who seem to want it all (and credit to them I suppose for never giving an inch). They're clearly better at mounting offensive attacks (like Russian poker and chess players).

Buffdog, Voyajeur (not the '80s short-lived TV show with Meenu Peluce), and a host of other people that I assume are KFC fans, at least challenge whatever information is being passed down as "facts". Sometimes, I truly wonder if people in general think for themselves, and at the very least question not only the things that they dislike, but the things that they generally agree with.

There are a number of Ehler's fans who are fair, good-natured, and want everyone on the team to succeed.

 

[GNP]

Dallas has to have the best scouts … their kids score 5 of 6 goals and set up the game winner.

Indeed, you are right on, as I've been very impressed as well with the scouting the Dallas team has done. They will be a force to be reckoned with for some time to come.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

I appreciate Dale all the work you have put in to try and balance the Connor Vs. Ehlers debate as much as I wish it would just go away. A team needs 8 wingers and they are our 2 best, after that it comes down to stacking lines or balancing lines and handling X amount of minutes while being most effective. Saying that I never expect this debate to go away until one isn't on the team, and even then it will flair up occasionally over the next few years.

Curious why you'd single me out?

 

[Howard Chuck]

From the above few posts…. I don’t want anyone to think that I’m anti-anyone and I’m definitely not a ‘one or the other’ fan. I’m a fan of the Jets and I like discussing the team and sharing my opinion. I think this is what we do here.

I personally don’t care who plays where, as long as we become the best team that we can with players we have. I just happen to think that 55 and 81 aren’t the best fit for the optimization of the team.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Jack, is hn777 your burner account?

 

[Buffdog]

From the above few posts…. I don’t want anyone to think that I’m anti-anyone and I’m definitely not a ‘one or the other’ fan. I’m a fan of the Jets and I like discussing the team and sharing my opinion. I think this is what we do here.

I personally don’t care who plays where, as long as we become the best team that we can with players we have. I just happen to think that 55 and 81 aren’t the best fit for the optimization of the team.

I think I'll say this and then bow out of this discussion a la @Jet because I don't think that there is a single person who is swinging from the "Ehlers Nutsack" who can think objectively, so...

I think the Org realizes that there are two guys in the top 6 who can drive a line - schief and ehlers - and they want them on separate lines

I think the Org knows that when ehlers' minutes are in a certain range, he does very well (thanks for the digging on that @Dale53130 )

I also think the Org has the same data showing that schief and ehlers dominate vs schief and Connor

So look at the above and ask yourself... "why do they keep schief and Connor together?"

The answer is:

1. The top two lines both have a guy who can drive a line
2. Ehlers on the second line limits his minutes, which ups his effectiveness
3. The org believes that the upside of the two above facts exceeds the upside of playing ehlers with schief

No conspiracy, no dinosaur coach with biases, etc.... just the org coming to a different conclusion than you

 

[Inanna]

No conspiracy, no dinosaur coach with biases, etc.... just the org coming to a different conclusion than you

Isn't that true of every player assignment, starting goalie, bench demotion, or whatever? The organization comes to a different conclusion than me.

The big difference is the organization sees and works with the players constantly and knows them intimately, while I have trouble even spelling some of their names correctly.

 

[Gm0ney]

He produces very well whenever he plays on the 2nd line. I was even looking back in this first 2 years, and whenever he was either coming up, or being demoted to the 3rd and 4th lines, he rang the bell and produced.

If he played with Names and Iaffalo, he'd still produce, they'd cover for his defensive weaknesses. He needs a half-decent passer, and a guy who bangs more. I've never found that putting him with two other scorers is the way to go.

Of course, the new narrative would be how he needs Names and Iaffalo to do ALL of the work, but... It's also funny how the other guy routinely can't get the 2nd power play unit going, and his own line, being the great line driver and all. Kyle Connor isn't the Pino Noir that people (Ehlers' fans) make him out to be, it's the other guy that needs X,Y & Z to happen to make him look good.

Connor's line production over the last 3 years at 5v5. I'm assuming "with Scheifele" is 1st line, "without Scheifele" is 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Connor + Scheifele	1414:36	3.05	3.18	72	75	-3
Connor w/o Scheifele	1770:40	2.44	2.37	72	70	+2
Scheif w/o Connor	1821:27	2.80	2.27	85	69	+16

His line production without Scheifele is 0.61 GF/60 less (worse) - but his GA/60 is 0.81 lower (better). So a net goal differential gain of +0.20.

Here's Ehlers on the 1st vs 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Ehlers + Scheifele	829:24	3.69	1.95	51	27	+24
Ehlers w/o Scheifele	1429:27	3.15	2.10	75	50	+25
Scheif w/o Ehlers	2406:39	2.64	2.92	106	117	-11

Ehlers line without Scheifele produces 0.51 GF/60 less, and the GA/60 is 0.15 higher (worse). So net goal differential loss of -0.66.

So the total net goal differential of putting Ehlers on line 1 and Connor on line 2 is +0.86/60...which is substantial.

I'm making assumptions here about the goal scoring rates applying consistently. But we have pretty big samples over multiple seasons.

The analytics provide more reassurance that this is not just a mirage - Ehlers+Scheifele out-shoot, out-chance, out-everything their opponents. Connor+Scheifele do not. Ehlers+Scheifele get more - and give up fewer - shots and chances together than Connor+Scheifele. It's a slam dunk.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[surixon]

These were the line rushes:

KC Scheifele Namestnikov
Ehlers Monohan Iafallo
Nino Perfetti Barron
Gus Kupari

JoMo DeMelo
Dillon Pionk
Snerg Stanley
Schmidt

That makeshift third line would be quite interesting to see if Appelton and Lowry can't go.

 

[Buffdog]

Connor's line production over the last 3 years at 5v5. I'm assuming "with Scheifele" is 1st line, "without Scheifele" is 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Connor + Scheifele	1414:36	3.05	3.18	72	75	-3
Connor w/o Scheifele	1770:40	2.44	2.37	72	70	+2
Scheif w/o Connor	1821:27	2.80	2.27	85	69	+16

His line production without Scheifele is 0.61 GF/60 less (worse) - but his GA/60 is 0.81 lower (better). So a net goal differential gain of +0.20.

Here's Ehlers on the 1st vs 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Ehlers + Scheifele	829:24	3.69	1.95	51	27	+24
Ehlers w/o Scheifele	1429:27	3.15	2.10	75	50	+25
Scheif w/o Ehlers	2406:39	2.64	2.92	106	117	-11

Ehlers line without Scheifele produces 0.51 GF/60 less, and the GA/60 is 0.15 higher (worse). So net goal differential loss of -0.66.

So the total net goal differential of putting Ehlers on line 1 and Connor on line 2 is +0.86/60...which is substantial.

I'm making assumptions here about the goal scoring rates applying consistently. But we have pretty big samples over multiple seasons.

The analytics provide more reassurance that this is not just a mirage - Ehlers+Scheifele out-shoot, out-chance, out-everything their opponents. Connor+Scheifele do not. Ehlers+Scheifele get more - and give up fewer - shots and chances together than Connor+Scheifele. It's a slam dunk.

How do schief and ehlers do against 1st lines of Edm (mcdavid), Col (mackinnon), Vegas (eichel), etc?

Those are the teams that chevy is trying to build a line up to beat. Who gives a f*** if Ehlers - Schief can dominate vs Arizona or Chicago... if they lose vs contenders and all of a sudden our second line doesn't have a play driver, we're f***ed because we lose that matchup too

 

[Howard Chuck]

Connor's line production over the last 3 years at 5v5. I'm assuming "with Scheifele" is 1st line, "without Scheifele" is 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Connor + Scheifele	1414:36	3.05	3.18	72	75	-3
Connor w/o Scheifele	1770:40	2.44	2.37	72	70	+2
Scheif w/o Connor	1821:27	2.80	2.27	85	69	+16

His line production without Scheifele is 0.61 GF/60 less (worse) - but his GA/60 is 0.81 lower (better). So a net goal differential gain of +0.20.

Here's Ehlers on the 1st vs 2nd line:

	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF	GA	+/-
Ehlers + Scheifele	829:24	3.69	1.95	51	27	+24
Ehlers w/o Scheifele	1429:27	3.15	2.10	75	50	+25
Scheif w/o Ehlers	2406:39	2.64	2.92	106	117	-11

Ehlers line without Scheifele produces 0.51 GF/60 less, and the GA/60 is 0.15 higher (worse). So net goal differential loss of -0.66.

So the total net goal differential of putting Ehlers on line 1 and Connor on line 2 is +0.86/60...which is substantial.

I'm making assumptions here about the goal scoring rates applying consistently. But we have pretty big samples over multiple seasons.

The analytics provide more reassurance that this is not just a mirage - Ehlers+Scheifele out-shoot, out-chance, out-everything their opponents. Connor+Scheifele do not. Ehlers+Scheifele get more - and give up fewer - shots and chances together than Connor+Scheifele. It's a slam dunk.

This is the line that describes my last few posts. I think that KC actually hurts 55 by losing possession that otherwise turns into some amount goals.

I would love to see Ehlers and KC centered by Monahan and 55/13 with someone else (Try Barron? Names?) someone with tenacity.

Scheif w/o Connor

1821:27

2.80

2.27

85

69

+16

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[kanadalainen]

That may explain his performance during the last game.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

The analytics provide more reassurance that this is not just a mirage - Ehlers+Scheifele out-shoot, out-chance, out-everything their opponents. Connor+Scheifele do not. Ehlers+Scheifele get more - and give up fewer - shots and chances together than Connor+Scheifele. It's a slam dunk.

Slam dunk away, I wasn't protecting the rim. You're quoting something I wrote, that has nothing to do with your reply.

Prior to this year, Ehlers and Scheifele started games on the same line, a total of 178 games.

Here's Ehlers impressive totals:

Goals: 64
Assists: 86
Plus/Minus: +33
Shots: 553

And Scheifele's totals:

Goals: 80
Assists: 101
Plus/Minus: +33
Shots: 404

Impressive numbers. Really impressive.

The Jets won/loss totals in those games, was:

Wins: 87
Losses: 91

In that same batch of games, I excluded all of the games where Ehlers played less than 17 minutes per game. Here's Ehlers production now in those 104 games:

Goals: 32
Assists: 50
Plus/Minus: -4
Shots: 353

Scheifele in those 104 games where Ehlers only played 17 or more minutes:

Goals: 44
Assists: 56
Plus/Minus: 0
Shots: 259

The Jets won/loss totals is now:

Wins: 43
Losses: 61

To add, they were playing a lot of those games with prime Blake Wheeler. They weren't always considered as the 1st line when they played together, but almost always were.

Here are the records in those 104 games:

While you (and others) are busy trying to find ways how the Jets will lose, I'm trying to reverse-engineer (in rudimentary ways) why they've perhaps settled on certain ideas/drawn certain conclusions.

 

[Buffdog]

Slam dunk away, I wasn't protecting the rim. You're quoting something I wrote, that has nothing to do with your reply.

Prior to this year, Ehlers and Scheifele started games on the same line, a total of 178 games.

Here's Ehlers impressive totals:

Goals: 64
Assists: 86
Plus/Minus: +33
Shots: 553

And Scheifele's totals:

Goals: 80
Assists: 101
Plus/Minus: +33
Shots: 404

Impressive numbers. Really impressive.

The Jets won/loss totals in those games, was:

Wins: 87
Losses: 91

In that same batch of games, I excluded all of the games where Ehlers played less than 17 minutes per game. Here's Ehlers production now in those 104 games:

Goals: 32
Assists: 50
Plus/Minus: -4
Shots: 353

Scheifele in those 104 games where Ehlers only played 17 or more minutes:

Goals: 44
Assists: 56
Plus/Minus: 0
Shots: 259

The Jets won/loss totals is now:

Wins: 43
Losses: 61

To add, they were playing a lot of those games with prime Blake Wheeler. They weren't always considered as the 1st line when they played together, but almost always were.

Here are the records in those 104 games:

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Jesus, you keep digging up nuggets...

What I take away from this is that while ehlers and schief do better together ststs-wise, it appears that the combination actually makes the team, as a whole, worse (though I'd have to see won/loss records where schief played with Connor and ehlers was elsewhere int he line up)

What people can't get through their goddamned heads is the idea that both ehlers and schief drive lines, so it's beneficial for the TEAM in terms of actually WINNING GAMES (I know, crazy concept - actually winning a game instead of a hypothetical "maybe that could have been a goal" stat match up) to have them on different lines

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Jesus, you keep digging up nuggets...

What I take away from this is that while ehlers and schief do better together ststs-wise, it appears that the combination actually makes the team, as a whole, worse (though I'd have to see won/loss records where schief played with Connor and ehlers was elsewhere int he line up)

What people can't get through their goddamned heads is the idea that both ehlers and schief drive lines, so it's beneficial for the TEAM in terms of actually WINNING GAMES (I know, crazy concept - actually winning a game instead of a hypothetical "maybe that could have been a goal" stat match up) to have them on different lines

Thank you! Seriously, you get it, and you're likely the only person actually reading it.

And I know that you get it, because this is very much in line where I'm landing on too:

The answer is:

1. The top two lines both have a guy who can drive a line
2. Ehlers on the second line limits his minutes, which ups his effectiveness
3. The org believes that the upside of the two above facts exceeds the upside of playing ehlers with schief

 

[Jets 31]

Vilardi has missed almost as many games as he has played this season, it's really too bad.

 

[surixon]

I still say they are holding off announcing bad news until after the deadline.

They have been very coy on him.

 

[Atoyot]

Jesus, you keep digging up nuggets...

What I take away from this is that while ehlers and schief do better together ststs-wise, it appears that the combination actually makes the team, as a whole, worse (though I'd have to see won/loss records where schief played with Connor and ehlers was elsewhere int he line up)

What people can't get through their goddamned heads is the idea that both ehlers and schief drive lines, so it's beneficial for the TEAM in terms of actually WINNING GAMES (I know, crazy concept - actually winning a game instead of a hypothetical "maybe that could have been a goal" stat match up) to have them on different lines

This feels a whole lot like the "the Jets win more with Enstrom out of the lineup, so he shouldn't play" argument, despite the fact that he impacts the game positively whenever he's on the ice. Judging a single player by a team's win/loss record doesn't make any kind of sense.