Kitchener Rangers 2023-24 Season Thread (Part 2)

[rangersblues]

The Petes are going to want a 16 or 17 year old player plus two 2nds and one or two, 3rds for Owen Beck. There is no way they will trade him straight up for a 16 year old player. Draft picks will be an important part of any deal for him. He is likely going be the most sought after player at the trade deadline. He is a player who plays a 200 foot game, he is among the league leaders in face off wins and face off win percentage. He is currently on a tear offensively. After only having one point in his first 6 games he has scored 10 goals and 8 assists in his last 11 games including 10 points in the last four games.

It sure isn't what you think Beck is worth. You're asking close to what you paid to get him last season as an 18 year old.

 

[RangerNation]

12 games in 22 days coming up. This truly is the final test.

Out of 24 possible points, what does MM think is reasonable for this team to "go for it"? 16-20 points? What does everyone else think is a comfortable record going into Christmas break with?

 

[rangersblues]

12 games in 22 days coming up. This truly is the final test.

Out of 24 possible points, what does MM think is reasonable for this team to "go for it"? 16-20 points? What does everyone else think is a comfortable record going into Christmas break with?

We are going to be missing considerable players due to WJC. This needs to be taken into account.

I think the compete level the remaining players display during this time is almost as important as the results.

 

[EvenSteven]

Not only do fans on the Rangers board not like moving quality first round picks, that seems to also be the consensus among OHL GMs. Very rare deals.

They are rare deals. But they do happen. Either where the team dealing the 1st rounder has exhausted most of their picks (ie Sarnia last year Del Mastro/Martone) or if there is a bidding war for a player and the piece that pushes one team ahead of the other over the finish line is the inclusion of the 1st rounder.

 

[EvenSteven]

Not only do fans on the Rangers board not like moving quality first round picks, that seems to also be the consensus among OHL GMs. Very rare deals.

Believe me, I don’t want to deal a 1st rounder either. But, MM’s ill-advised purging of assets last season has us in this position.

So now, to try and improve this year’s team, while protecting the future, means he’s going to have to get pretty inventive.

As I said, if he was a buyer last year, when the team was as dysfunctional as it was (is there any other way to describe the gong show that was last year? That veteran a team not being able to get it together?), and buried in the standings, no doubt unless this thing crashes in the next few weeks, MM will not sell.

 

[RangerNation]

We are going to be missing considerable players due to WJC. This needs to be taken into account.

I think the compete level the remaining players display during this time is almost as important as the results.

This may only affect 3-4 games before the Christmas break. After the break is a different story and I 100% agree. Players I have seen on lists are Rehkopf, Mesar, Bruz. Mesar is a lock, but the other two are still up in the air.

 

[rangersblues]

This may only affect 3-4 games before the Christmas break. After the break is a different story and I 100% agree. Players I have seen on lists are Rehkopf, Mesar, Bruz. Mesar is a lock, but the other two are still up in the air.

Historically USA frowns on CHL players but Brzustewicz is going to be hard to ignore. I think Rehkopf too. Am I just imagining or did I hear something that Parson was also receiving consideration?

 

[RangerNation]

Historically USA frowns on CHL players but Brzustewicz is going to be hard to ignore. I think Rehkopf too. Am I just imagining or did I hear something that Parson was also receiving consideration?

Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman at The Athletic both have Brzustewicz making the team. Only Pronman thinks Rehkopf cracks the team (3rd line). They are still hung up on him being 18, despite leading the entire CHL in points. I only see Rangers fans hyping up Parsons. I don't think he gets an invite.

 

[Krangers08]

Rehkopf is 50/50 and depends on what the selection team wants in the bottom 6.A comparison would be Jordan Dumais from Halifax. He was leading the league in goals and points last year at the start of camp (finished with 140) and didn’t get an invite.

I think Rehkopf and Cowan might be battling for that extra forward role. Might be a low OHL representation year.

 

[GeoBlue]

Umm, this is another long one.

I’m also a very firm, “I don’t know which direction the Rangers should go” guy.

We have a few more weeks to see where we are, but I’m betting there’s no way MM looks at the current team and it’s standing, and sells. Though I’m not in favour, that’s why a Romano may be in play.

But,

Should we decide to sell, I have a direction in which I think we should go.

Should we decide to buy, I have a pretty good way to do so that we can afford, that makes us better, and addresses the future.


How I’d sell:

First, I can get behind buying but only with the future in mind. My hypothetical two parter (Lardis/Rehkopf) a while back is a very good example but realistically, very hard to pull off. I mean, you’d have to target the right 05 that makes us that much better. Then, he has to play on a team that isn’t contending this year but will go all in next year. And, for that team to want to do it, Rehkopf would have to be an upgrade on next year’s version of the player coming our way at the deadline. For example, Owen Sound may not want to get tied up in a deal like this if they feel Colby Barlow will be on par with Rehkopf next year. So I’m not holding my breath on such a deal happening, but you never know.

Second, IMO, there’s no way we move young quality assets for graduating, high end ‘04’s. Those types of moves would cripple our future. The only way I make Romano or Reid available is if the return addresses the future in a significant way.

Standing pat isn’t an option in my mind. It won’t improve the team and doesn’t address the future.

But if we sell at all, even a soft sell that weakens this year’s team in the least, then we may as well be all out sellers.

Other contenders in the west will get better. Saginaw is already in “all in” mode. London, Guelph, and the Soo should follow suit in some manner. Owen Sound could be starting a climb up the standings. All have deeper draft cupboards than the Rangers. Unless we are willing to move youth, we cannot go all in hard.

So, if we’re selling, we don’t have to decimate this year’s team. I’d only shop graduating assets that will give us the biggest bang for our buck.

What’s the point in moving a lesser OA or two (Motew and/or a health questionable Martin) for that 3rd and 5th that Lockhart went for? They would likely be more value to us finishing the season here helping develop our youth.

So if we are selling graduating players, who gives us the biggest bang for our buck?

The answer is Brzustewicz, Sop and Mesar. I’d 100% put these three on the block. I sell these guys hard and I listen to offers on Parsons and Schmidt if there are any.

Those are big pieces who’d bring massive return collectively. The remaining players still allows us to be pretty good this year, make the playoffs and be a tough out in the first round. I think I may keep Schmidt, especially if Parsons was moved. Having a strong D, even in a sell year, is important.

And more importantly, next year, in a down year, we’ll have a good group to move for futures in Rehkopf, Andonovski, Swick, Miseljevic, etc.

Brzustewicz either brings us Del Mastro return (‘23 1st rounder, plus a 2nd. Maybe more depending on the quality of the 1st rounder), or at worst, Kyrou return (good ‘06 player. 2x2nds. 3rd. 4th. 5th)

Sop brings us Xhekaj / Morrison return. Currently the league’s top OA scorer, on pace for 40 goals and 100+ points, stellar 200 foot player. PK. PP. The list goes on. When was the last time he took a game off? Exactly! He’d be in demand and surely an upgrade on any team’s OA forward.

Mesar would bring Faksa return at least. 2x2nds, plus a possible cast off import. He’s at almost two points per game since his return. This year’s version of Mesar is leaps and bounds ahead of last year’s version.

If there’s a contender out there who is questioning their current goaltending, Parsons would be their answer. I think Jacob Ingham return makes sense. (2nd. 3rd. 3rd. 4th*). We’d be fine I think with Malboeuf and whoever came the other way. But if we keep Parsons, I make Schmidt available. If we deal Parsons, Schmidt stays.

All those deals in, we’re in the ballpark of 7x2nds. 5x3rds. 3x4ths added to the cupboard.

As far as dealing Rehkopf this year (in an all out sell, not a two parter) vs keeping him. As MM said, it would have to be a “blow the doors off” offer. For me, that’s Owen Beck return absolute minimum, but likely more. If he were put on the block today, you could make an argument that he’d be the #1 forward available. But it would depend a ton on the 1st rounder coming back to us. For instance, if Saginaw is the trade partner, the picks have to be more since Young was a late 1st rounder. I’ve been suggesting Sudbury as a trade partner. But I’m not so sure about Caden Taylor. His not being invited to the U17 could be a red flag, Tanner Lam’s exclusion notwithstanding. Same goes for London and Henry B. London displayed that Henry was worth 2x2nds and a 3rd. For me, we can get the Beck picks plus the Henry B return for Rehkopf next year.

I just think if we can move the graduating players I mentioned above, we still ice a competitive team this year and have multiple chips to sell in a down year next year. Do all that, and by the start of 25-26, this team should be lights out.

So, if we did move the players above, our lineup post trade deadline (mix and match):

Swick.Rehkopf. Miseljevic
Martin. Mercer. Lam.
Ellinas. Morey. Romano.
Bottineau. Stark. Pug.

Andonovski. Schmidt.
Motew. Reid.
Campbell. Scott.

Malboeuf

There’d likely be a castoff goalie and a forward or two coming back. Maybe an import. If both Sop and Schmidt go, no doubt an OA comes back. Someone among those players could step into the second line center spot. These castoff players would likely be of the Cole Carter / Andrew Burns calibre from the Bracco deal. Decent OHLers who wouldn’t have gotten the minutes had they stayed with their team. There could also be a young player or two coming back as well. Work all of these into the above post deadline lineup and we’d still have a competitive team that would be a tough out in the post season. Maybe even win a round depending on where we’d be seeded.

Going into next year, we’d have some pretty good returning 04’s to pick from as OA’s.
Miseljevic.
Swick.
Pugliese.
Malboeuf.

Our lineup going into camp next year:

Swick. Rehkopf.Miseljevic
Ellinas. Romano. Lam.
Bottineau. Stark. Mercer.
Arquette. Morey. 16 yr old.
16 yr old.

Andonovski. Reid.
Campbell. Scott.
MacNiel. 16 yr old.
16 yr old.

Malboeuf.
Edwards.

We’d have four 16 year olds mixed in from the ‘24 draft. Plus I hang onto Pugliese so that when a higher calibre OA is moved, he slots in.



How I’d buy:

Now there are arguments to be made about buying. About moving one or both our 1st rounders.

But we fell in love with the 05 group as 16 year olds. That draft looked great. To be sure, Rehkopf and Andonovski are studs. But Mercer is regressing offensively. I thought he could be another Scott Timmins type player, and there’s still time, but thus far he’s way behind where I’d hoped he’d be. I thought Zidlicky would be a close to a point a game player by now. He showed great promise as a 16 year old but hasn’t improved offensively. He’s a third year player and this year, sits at 5pts to date. Dealing him for picks doesn’t look like such a bad deal for us now. No other player from that draft is in the league. It doesn’t help that we didn’t have a 2nd rounder that year either.

My point is that we fell in love with the 05 group and we’re getting a little burned by them. Now fast forward to today and we’re raving about this group. Rightfully so. But is it possible that a couple of these guys don’t live up to expectations?
All four look like very good to high end players. But it is possible there may be a Mike Davies or Grayson Ladd 1st rounder in that group? Decent OHLers but by no means high end?

Are we putting too much value on these guys? It’s possible that from the start of the season to the deadline, there may be a reason that MM may think it would be worth it to move one from one of our 1sts. Not because they are a bust, but because the outlook on them today may differ a little to the outlook on them at the draft. Maybe that could make it easier to include one of them in a trade.

This is all speculation by me. From my vantage point, I see nothing that would indicate that there is any reason to move on from any of the 07’s. I’m just thinking out loud, if you will, wondering if there may be any more reason for motivation by MM to decide to move an 07 at the deadline other than the obvious - pay a steep price to get some help in here to contend.


So, total hypothetical. Not married to the players I suggest coming in. Just an example of the type of moves we’d make to improve the team, while not upsetting the apple cart, and help the future.

In:
C-Ryan Abraham.
D-Noah Van Vliet.
LW-Sandis Vilmanis.

Out:
Luca Romano
Justin Bottineau
Roman Schmidt


What could Ryan Abraham bring as a 3rd line center? In his injury shortened season last year he was over a point a game on a deep team. I think he’d be rejuvenated coming to a contender. Perhaps get back to last year’s offensive pace? He brings more than offence as well. He’s not having a good year this year, but nobody is in Windsor. Change of scenery could put the former 1st rounder back on track. Shouldn’t be too expensive. Can be a bit of a shift disturber here and there but Jussi could steer that act in the right direction.

My thoughts on a deal: I’m valuing Romano at 2x2nds, 2x3rds, 4th. I base this comparable on the ballpark return of past defected 1st rounders who were drafted around the middle of the 1st round. Based on his season so far this year, I’m valuing Abraham at 2x3rds. The conditions on the 4th’27(Kit) are on Abraham playing an OA season.

To Kitchener:
04-C-Ryan Abraham
2nd’24(Nia)
2nd’26(Win)
4th’26(Ott)

To Windsor:
Luca Romano
4th’27(Kit)*

This improves our third line and gives us an option that could move up to the top six if need be. It helps the future with the picks that come with Abraham. That 2nd’(Nia) would be huge.


Then, Noah Van Vliet.

Big, solid, stay at home vet with experience on a winner. Would solidify the third pairing if we wanted to keep Reid and Campbell on opposite pairings. But good enough to play top four. Replaces Schmidt who’d be the odd OA out.

To Brantford:
Justin Bottineau

To Kitchener:
04-LD-Noah Van Vliet.

Player for player. Brantford gets minimum 2.5 years of Bottineau who, with better opportunity should start putting up better offence. Currently buried down our lineup being asked to play grind-line hockey.


Then, Sandis Vilmanis.

The Hamara deal should have set the price for pretty good import 04’s. Sarnia is rebuilding so I expect they’d be happy with the picks.

To Sarnia:
3rd’27(Kit)
4th’25(Ott)

To Kitchener:
04-LW-Sandis Vilmanis

Vilmanis, like Abraham, gives us quality on the 3rd line. Can also move up the lineup if need be.


Then, Roman Schmidt.

Lleyton Moore went for a 2nd, 3rd, 8th. All picks a couple years away. Could we get the same for Schmidt? I’m skeptical. Maybe if they were very distant. ‘27 draft?

To Missy:
Roman Schmidt.

To Kitchener:
2nd’27(Mis).
3rd’27(Mis).

Missy has an OA spot open and not wanting to burn a ton of their draft capitol, a cheaper add of an NHL drafted D would shore up the back end.


This is how we’d look after the deadline:


Swick. Rehkopf. Mesar.
Martin. Sop. Miseljevic.
Vilmanis. Abraham. Lam.
Ellinas. Mercer. Pugilese.
Stark. Morey.

Brzustewicz. Andonovski.
Motew. Reid.
Van Vliet. Campbell.
Scott.

Parsons
Malboeuf


Going into the ‘24 draft, we’d have:
1st
2nd(Nia)
2nd(Er)
3rd(OS)
4th

I think that’s right where we want to be going into the draft. That gives us a great chance at a very good ‘08 draft class.


I don’t know if we’d be good enough to go all the way. But I do know that we’d be better than we are now. We didn’t break what didn’t need to be fixed by inserting a top end guy into the top six causing someone to play out of position or down the lineup. For the most part, we kept the gang together.

And we were able to address the future somewhat via picks and still have healthy group of quality returnees who could be moved next year for significant return. I suspect getting that 2nd’24(Nia) along with the landslide next year that dealing Rehkopf would bring would ease the pain of moving Romano.


At the end of the day, I really don’t see us selling now. We are passing all the tests. Everyone is clicking. Another big test this weekend. 4 of 6 points would further solidify a no-sell stance.






You have way too much time on your hands.

 

[EvenSteven]

You have way too much time on your hands.

You sir, may have something there!!!

 

[GeoBlue]

Believe me, I don’t want to deal a 1st rounder either. But, MM’s ill-advised purging of assets last season has us in this position.

So now, to try and improve this year’s team, while protecting the future, means he’s going to have to get pretty inventive.

As I said, if he was a buyer last year, when the team was as dysfunctional as it was (is there any other way to describe the gong show that was last year? That veteran a team not being able to get it together?), and buried in the standings, no doubt unless this thing crashes in the next few weeks, MM will not sell.

I am feeling warm and fuzzy about last year. But anything outside of that first playoff round didn't happen in my world.

 

[East Avenue Bully]

This may only affect 3-4 games before the Christmas break. After the break is a different story and I 100% agree. Players I have seen on lists are Rehkopf, Mesar, Bruz. Mesar is a lock, but the other two are still up in the air.

Parsons will get a look

 

[dirty12]

It sure isn't what you think Beck is worth. You're asking close to what you paid to get him last season as an 18 year old.

I think Beck almost certainly returns a mid-1st plus 2, 2, 3, 3 as long as they are not trying to get those four picks in the next two drafts..

The Petes gave up a 6th over all pick to acquire Beck. That is worth 11-15 pick plus a future 2nd imo. If a 16-20 pick, add an additional 3rd.

 

[bobber]

I think Beck almost certainly returns a mid-1st plus 2, 2, 3, 3 as long as they are not trying to get those four picks in the next two drafts..

The Petes gave up a 6th over all pick to acquire Beck. That is worth 11-15 pick plus a future 2nd imo. If a 16-20 pick, add an additional 3rd.

Dirty if the Petes are in first in the east would they not want to take advantage of their success and keep Beck if they are in this position? Teams in first place going into the play offs might have their sites set on a Mem Cup run with it being in Ontario. The opportunity doesn't present itself that often for a lot of squads. Nothing is guarantied in junior hockey. Our host and whichever other squad gets in the tourney might both be under dogs to a Western or Quebec champ and get blown out.

 

[HockeyPops]

Teams in first place going into the play offs might have their sites set on a Mem Cup run with it being in Ontario.

Saginaw is in Ontario?

 

[dirty12]

Dirty if the Petes are in first in the east would they not want to take advantage of their success and keep Beck if they are in this position? Teams in first place going into the play offs might have their sites set on a Mem Cup run with it being in Ontario. The opportunity doesn't present itself that often for a lot of squads. Nothing is guarantied in junior hockey. Our host and whichever other squad gets in the tourney might both be under dogs to a Western or Quebec champ and get blown out.

Unlike Kitchener, the Petes do not have good ‘05s, or four good ‘07s, or 2, 3, 4 picks for the next draft.

 

[Krangers08]

All we know on the trade front it's that Kitchener won’t do anything this weekend. McKenzie and Zsolt are at the silver stick.

* is Carolina part of the OHL area? as they Jr Hurricanes are at the tournament

 

[Kingpin794]

All we know on the trade front it's that Kitchener won’t do anything this weekend. McKenzie and Zsolt are at the silver stick.

* is Carolina part of the OHL area? as they Jr Hurricanes are at the tournament

“It is a selection of players who are residents of the province of Ontario, the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York, and other designated U.S. states east of the Mississippi River plus Missouri.”

Carolina would be included as the Q only gets New England (Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont). Not that it matters to them as they basically given up on recruiting Americans in the Q.

 

[rangersblues]

I think Beck almost certainly returns a mid-1st plus 2, 2, 3, 3 as long as they are not trying to get those four picks in the next two drafts..

The Petes gave up a 6th over all pick to acquire Beck. That is worth 11-15 pick plus a future 2nd imo. If a 16-20 pick, add an additional 3rd.

Again you're forgetting you had Beck for more or less a full calendar year. And you are recovering players. Thus the premium paid last season.The price should be lower than last season.

But at the end, the market determines the value - if he's available.

 

[GeoBlue]

Saginaw is in Ontario?

Surprisingly, it is still in the same spot. Me thinks they mean Ontario League.

 

[dirty12]

Again you're forgetting you had Beck for more or less a full calendar year. And you are recovering players. Thus the premium paid last season.The price should be lower than last season.

But at the end, the market determines the value - if he's available.

I think you’re forgetting Petes gave up the 6th overall pick and another player. They will get back a mid-1st which is significantly less.

 

[bobber]

Saginaw is in Ontario?

Pops maybe ask Lefty Frizzel.

 

[bobber]

Surprisingly, it is still in the same spot. Me thinks they mean Ontario League.

Pops use to dance to Left Frizzell's number one hit back in the 40s. Saginaw Michigan.

 

[Matttheleaf]

“It is a selection of players who are residents of the province of Ontario, the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York, and other designated U.S. states east of the Mississippi River plus Missouri.”

Carolina would be included as the Q only gets New England (Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont). Not that it matters to them as they basically given up on recruiting Americans in the Q.

I looked into how many American players play in each CHL league, and it was OHL 40, WHL 34 and the Q with only 6!? That seems crazy to me that they wouldn't dip into the states more often.