Value of: Kirill Kaprizov

[AKL]

What would the Wild need in addition to Zegras?

I posted the framework of something with Buffalo earlier in the thread

Peterka or Cozens
Kulich or Ostlund or Helenius
1st, with protections

Think if we were dealing with Anaheim instead, assuming the Wild would be interested in Zegras, he would satisfy the Peterka/Cozens part of the deal, but we'd still be looking for the prospect and pick to be included. I'm not sure what Anaheim has for prospects that would be in that same tier as the three Buffalo guys. To my eyes they either have guys who are way better, or guys who aren't good enough.

But I'm sure the actual pieces could be adjusted to make it come out to similar value.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Do you believe having 1 year until a player hits UFA is the same as having 1 year until a player hits RFA?

Tkachuk didn't have one year until his final RFA year, he was going into his last RFA year when traded. Meier was a TDL acquisition that had immense risk because he could have just signed his absurd $10M qualifying offer and left as a free agent after the following year. Total time with new team could have been 1 year and 3 months.

It's absurd that you think there's some gigantic difference in value between these situations and Kaprizov being a year from free agency.

 

[AKL]

Yep.

But let's go back to the huberdeau deal.

Surely, since both these guys had 1 year until UFA status, they were traded 1 for 1?

Wait, the team trading away the 28 year old without RFA rights (Huberdeau/Kaprizov), had to add a 1st+top pairing dman to get the 24 year old with RFA rights. Hmmm, interesting.
So exactly like I said.

You're still not getting it.

RFA rights had nothing to do with the value of that trade.

 

[MMC]

I posted the framework of something with Buffalo earlier in the thread

Peterka or Cozens
Kulich or Ostlund or Helenius
1st, with protections

Think if we were dealing with Anaheim instead, assuming the Wild would be interested in Zegras, he would satisfy the Peterka/Cozens part of the deal, but we'd still be looking for the prospect and pick to be included. I'm not sure what Anaheim has for prospects that would be in that same tier as the three Buffalo guys. To my eyes they either have guys who are way better, or guys who aren't good enough.

But I'm sure the actual pieces could be adjusted to make it come out to similar value.

Luneau?

 

[dgibb10]

Tkachuk didn't have one year until his final RFA year, he was going into his last RFA year when traded. Meier was a TDL acquisition that had immense risk because he could have just signed his absurd $10M qualifying offer and left as a free agent after the following year. Total time with new team could have been 1 year and 3 months.

It's absurd that you think there's some gigantic difference in value between these situations and Kaprizov being a year from free agency.

Except NJD opted for arbitration, meaning he wouldn't have gotten 10 mill in any scenario.

And yet, when Florida and Calgary swapped between a 24 year old's RFA rights, and a 28 year old with 1 year until UFA (this is the exact situation of Kaprizov you are suggesting), Florida had to add a 1st and a top pairing dman.

You are offering the Huberdeau in this scenario, not the Tkachuk

 

[AKL]

Luneau?

I think Luneau would definitely be of interest, I just don't know how to value him because I don't know enough about him. I also figured Ducks fans were quite high on him and he wouldn't be on the table at all.

 

[dgibb10]

You're still not getting it.

RFA rights had nothing to do with the value of that trade.

Except I mentioned age as well. And Huberdeau didn't even have a full NMC like Kaprizov does.

Once again. Kaprizov is the Huberdeau, or as I mentioned, similar to whatever you would pay for Mitch Marner.

 

[AKL]

And yet, when Florida and Calgary swapped between a 24 year old's RFA rights, and a 28 year old with 1 year until UFA (this is the exact situation of Kaprizov you are suggesting), Florida had to add a 1st and a top pairing dman.

Because it has nothing to do with the RFA vs UFA angle you keep trying to force, and everything to do with Tkachuk and Hubderdeau as players.

It's stupid that you're even taking it this far. For starters, that trade, and the Meier trade, were both brought up to show that players with one season until UFA can return as much value as we think, contrary to your first post on this topic:

For 1 year of control on a guy who in this scenario doesn't want to resign? Less than you'd think

They were not brought up to provide exact comparables to what Kaprizov should/would/could return.

Second of all, Kaprizov is a much better player than both Huberdeau and Meier, and he's also a better player than Tkachuk, so trying to say he's equivalent to Huberdeau value-wise because they're the same age is nothing short of incredibly bad logic.

 

[kp61c]

Except NJD opted for arbitration, meaning he wouldn't have gotten 10 mill in any scenario.

And yet, when Florida and Calgary swapped between a 24 year old's RFA rights, and a 28 year old with 1 year until UFA (this is the exact situation of Kaprizov you are suggesting), Florida had to add a 1st and a top pairing dman.

You are offering the Huberdeau in this scenario, not the Tkachuk

nah, kaprizov is a much better player than both trachuk and hubereau

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Except I mentioned age as well.

Once again. Kaprizov is the Huberdeau, or as I mentioned, similar to whatever you would pay for Mitch Marner.

One slight difference, the premise of this is that Kaprizov has an extension deal in place, whereas Huberdeau could've played out 1 season in Calgary and left.

Either way, if Kaprizov didn't want to extend here, I would definitely be open to a Kaprizov + 1st for a current version of Matt Tkachuk (taking Brodin out to account for the contract differences).

So, Kaprizov + 1st for a 24/25 year old 40+ goal, 100+ point player under contract long-term. Let's find one.

 

[dgibb10]

Because it has nothing to do with the RFA vs UFA angle you keep trying to force, and everything to do with Tkachuk and Hubderdeau as players.

It's stupid that you're even taking it this far. For starters, that trade, and the Meier trade, were both brought up to show that players with one season until UFA can return as much value as we think, contrary to your first post on this topic:

They were not brought up to provide exact comparables to what Kaprizov should/would/could return.

Second of all, Kaprizov is a much better player than both Huberdeau and Meier, and he's also a better player than Tkachuk, so trying to say he's equivalent to Huberdeau value-wise because they're the same age is nothing short of incredibly bad logic.

Huberdeau also cost 3.1 million dollars less, and had just finished 5th in hart voting.

You can argue about Matthew Tkachuk vs Kaprizov I don't particularly care which one is slightly better.

One slight difference, the premise of this is that Kaprizov has an extension deal in place, whereas Huberdeau could've played out 1 season in Calgary and left.

Either way, if Kaprizov didn't want to extend here, I would definitely be open to a Kaprizov + 1st for a current version of Matt Tkachuk (taking Brodin out to account for the contract differences).

So, Kaprizov + 1st for a 24/25 year old 40+ goal, 100+ point player. Let's find one.

Huberdeau did sign an extension. Kaprizov could also choose to play out his one season.

In terms of contract differences. Kaprizov makes 3.1 mill more than Huberdeau did. And has a full NMC whereas huberdeau had a partial NTC.

The value of a week or two difference in timing of negotiating the contract is not worth taking out a top pairing dman. The incentive is not there for the acquiring team to pay out the nose just to sign Kaprizov to the exact same contract they would a week later

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Huberdeau also cost 3.1 million dollars less, and had just finished 5th in hart voting.

You can argue about Matthew Tkachuk vs Kaprizov I don't particularly care which one is slightly better.


Huberdeau did sign an extension. Kaprizov could also choose to play out his one season.

In terms of contract differences. Kaprizov makes 3.1 mill more than Huberdeau did. And has a full NMC whereas huberdeau had a partial NTC.

Huberdeau's extension was not anywhere close to a sure thing at the time of the trade. He was traded against his preference and could've absolutely bolted. That is not applicable to this hypothetical situation that we are in here.

The premise of this thread is like the Tkachuk side of that trade, where his extension was agreed upon before filed, and signed maybe hours after.

 

[dgibb10]

Huberdeau's extension was not anywhere close to a sure thing at the time of the trade. He was traded against his preference and could've absolutely bolted. That is not applicable to this hypothetical situation that we are in here.

The premise of this thread is like the Tkachuk side of that trade, where his extension was agreed upon before filed, and signed maybe hours after.

And again, the premise is stupid.

"traded with extension" is something that fanbases use to pretend their pending UFA rentals aren't rentals.

Market value UFA extensions a few weeks earlier than they would be otherwise aren't something teams are lining up to pay through the nose for

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And again, the premise is stupid.

"traded with extension" is something that fanbases use to pretend their pending UFA rentals aren't rentals.

Market value UFA extensions a few weeks earlier than they would be otherwise aren't something teams are lining up to pay through the nose for

It. Literally. Happened.

 

[dgibb10]

It. Literally. Happened.

Every fanbase is convinced it will happen with whatever UFA rental theyre trying to sell.

It rarely actually happens. I remember having this exact conversation about Guentzel, and Lindholm, and Hanifin. Everyone convinced them coming "with extension" would jack up the price.

RFAs, sure, happens all the time. UFAs, very rarely. And they're guys that are usually 27 when the contract ends. Not 29 like kaprizov will be. Because getting a guy at a massive cap hit until he's 37 isn't something you want to pay a bunch extra for

 

[Digitalbooya]

Trying to talk logic with gibb is a fool's errand at this point

 

[kp61c]

it's interesting that kaprizov is not appreciated by minnesota fans here. they must be thinking he is a goner in 2 years for sure. that will lower his value, i stand corrected.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

it's interesting that kaprizov is not appreciated by minnesota fans here. they must be thinking he is a goner in 2 years for sure. that will lower his value, i stand corrected.

It has nothing to do with appreciation. It is a complete hypothetical.

Every fanbase is convinced it will happen with whatever UFA rental theyre trying to sell.

It rarely actually happens. I remember having this exact conversation about Guentzel, and Lindholm, and Hanifin. Everyone convinced them coming "with extension" would jack up the price.

RFAs, sure, happens all the time. UFAs, very rarely. And they're guys that are usually 27 when the contract ends. Not 29 like kaprizov will be. Because getting a guy at a massive cap hit until he's 37 isn't something you want to pay a bunch extra for

So you are agreeing that it can happen? Thanks.

 

[dgibb10]

It has nothing to do with appreciation. It is a complete hypothetical.


So you are agreeing that it can happen? Thanks.

I cannot remember a time it has happened with a 29+ year old and increased the price significantly.

Now, full NMCs like kaprizov has tanking values? that happens all the time

 

[Digitalbooya]

What would the Wild need in addition to Zegras?

I hate the idea of Zegras being considered a main piece in any Kaprizov trade.

 

[kp61c]

It has nothing to do with appreciation. It is a complete hypothetical.

yes, hypothetically you think there's no way he stays. that'll make him a bargain for future trading partners. you should keep that in mind.

 

[AKL]

it's interesting that kaprizov is not appreciated by minnesota fans here. they must be thinking he is a goner in 2 years for sure. that will lower his value, i stand corrected.

I don't know why you guys get so weird about this. ViD did it earlier in the thread too. You guys take it so personally because he's Russian. There isn't a single Minnesota fan who doesn't appreciate him or want him to extend here. The reality is he's a superstar caliber player who wants to win playoff games, and Minnesota hasn't shown they can win playoff games. Why would we just assume he's going to stay? Why wouldn't we discuss possible options on a hockey discussion website? It doesn't mean we hate him and want him gone, it means we understand that it's his choice, and his choice may be to leave.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

yes, hypothetically you think there's no way he stays. that'll make him a bargain for future trading partners. you should keep that in mind.

I don't think that there is no way he stays. I don't really know what % I'd put on it at the moment, but I do know that the price is going to be extremely high.

 

[AKL]

yes, hypothetically you think there's no way he stays. that'll make him a bargain for future trading partners. you should keep that in mind.

What we think and talk about on here has no bearing on his trade value.

And even if it's known around the league that he's 100% not staying in Minnesota, other teams will still have to pay for him if they want him, and they're still competing against everyone else who wants him to build the best package.

I cannot remember a time it has happened with a 29+ year old and increased the price significantly.

Now, full NMCs like kaprizov has tanking values? that happens all the time

Like I said, go start your own thread if you want to create your own scenario. At this point, you're just trolling this one.

 

[kp61c]

I don't think that there is no way he stays. I don't really know what % I'd put on it at the moment, but I do know that the price is going to be extremely high.

then it looks like he walks like panarin did. win-win for everyone.