Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal part 2

[Ozmodiar]

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context.

I’m afraid context isn’t going to help Dach.

High o-zone starts
Low d-zone starts

PP1 before Laine return, almost 3m/game.
No PK time.
(Not +/- but speaks to usefulness)

2nd worst +/- in the league. Worst on his team by 10.

Poor faceoff percentage.

There’s no “ya take the bad with the good” here.

Caufield has the same GA? Well, maybe he gives up a little defense to produce … thus, why folks discuss +/- instead of GA.

 

[Goalfield13]

Dach supporters are easily the biggest goalpost movers on this entire board. You'd think Kirby has ilicit pictures of them the way they'd jump in front of a bus to defend him.

They are extremely protective of him in the 2C spot. Any mention of any other player in that spot, and they are quick to tell you how terrible that suggestion is.

I’m afraid context isn’t going to help Dach.

High o-zone starts
Low d-zone starts

PP1 before Laine return, almost 3m/game.
No PK time.
(Not +/- but speaks to usefulness)

2nd worst +/- in the league. Worst on his team by 10.

Poor faceoff percentage.

There’s no “ya take the bad with the good” here.

Caufield has the same GA? Well, maybe he gives up a little defense to produce … thus, why folks discuss +/- instead of GA.

Production doesn't matter though. Improved skating is all we are looking at here. Also, faceoffs don't matter, either.

 

[ryan callahan]

Until our talented sandbaggers figure it out, MSL should just send Jake Evans on the ice for 20 minutes a game. Dach can be a PP specialist for now (even though he sucks at that too right now).

 

[Goalfield13]

Until our talented sandbaggers figure it out, MSL should just send Jake Evans on the ice for 20 minutes a game. Dach can be a PP specialist for now (even though he sucks at that too right now).

I look forward to the day when Beck and Demidov replace Dach and Newhook.

 

[Andy]

Dach def zone starts 44.3%
Suzuki def zone starts 44.2%
Caufield def zone starts 42.3%
Slaf 45.5

Ozone starts
Dach 55.7
Suzuki 55.1%
Caufield 57.3%
Slaf 55.5%

All have comparable goals against totals.

since Nov 1, he’s actually been on the ice for the least amount of GA by a fair margin compared to his other top 6 counter parts.

His awful Plus minus is a function of an awful October and atrocious offensive production

 

[Ozmodiar]

Our top-5 in OZ% is Roy, Laine, Dach, Pezzetta, Caufield. Sure some good ones there but also not clearly our best.

If your going by raw OZ starts then honestly that's just a slightly modified TOI.

No.

Ozone starts are a *percentage* of how they begin their shifts. Players listed have the highest % starts in the ozone. It’s not a slightly modified TOI.

You prove as much by listing 2 statistically insignificant players above, in Roy and Pez.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Why are you combining games? That's outrageously disingenuous. Each game is its own game. You can't just pick and choose games to your liking. So if you consider Larkin/Raymond as the toughest matchups (which would be appropriate), Dach played against them for 1 minute and 1 second in one game while Suzuki/CC had 5 minutes and 21 seconds. In the other game, it was 25 seconds for Suzuki/CC and 4 minutes and 23 seconds for Dach.

So even with your disingenuous way of combining games, Suzuki/CC played 5 minutes and 46 seconds against them while Dach had 5 minutes and 24 seconds. You are still wrong here.

You can't say I'm wrong when you admit it's not an appropriate sample size. In fact, you are also wrong here because the Columbus game shows that Suzuki/CC in fact played more against their top line (which you said otherwise making you dead wrong). I mentioned this in my previous post and you failed to acknowledge it. It's probably because you are the wrong one but can't admit it. Hell, even in that Columbus game, not only did Suzuki/CC face Monahan's line more than Dach did, but they also faced Sillinger's line for over 6 minutes in addition to the Monahan matchup.

You're proving my point for me. Take the L and move on. If you want to make the argument that Suzuki/CC don't face the toughest competition every single game then yes you made that point in the isolated Detroit game from the 3 game sample sizes you're using. But you're contradicting yourself all over the place and are incorrectly calling me wrong.

I think @Sorinth brought up a good point regarding home vs away and last change.

Dach probably gets tougher matchups in away games when teams are looking to exploit him, but that just means he's exploitable.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Dach def zone starts 44.3%
Suzuki def zone starts 44.2%
Caufield def zone starts 42.3%
Slaf 45.5

Ozone starts
Dach 55.7
Suzuki 55.1%
Caufield 57.3%
Slaf 55.5%

All have comparable goals against totals.

since Nov 1, he’s actually been on the ice for the least amount of GA by a fair margin compared to his other top 6 counter parts.

His awful Plus minus is a function of an awful October and atrocious offensive production

He hasn't recorded a + game since November 16th.

He had 5 points in October, 3 in November, and 1 in December.

He was -12 in October and -6 in both November and December.

If he was -6 in October like the following 2 months he would still be -18 which would still be the worst on the Habs, followed by Newhook at -14 and Slafkovsky at -11. Those are 3 of the guys who have struggled the most with basic assignments this year so I would say the +/- stat is actually revealing here.

Just further contextualizing

 

[Andy]

He hasn't recorded a + game since November 16th.

He had 5 points in October, 3 in November, and 1 in December.

He was -12 in October and -6 in both November and December.

If he was -6 in October like the following 2 months he would still be -18 which would still be the worst on the Habs, followed by Newhook at -14 and Slafkovsky at -11. Those are 3 of the guys who have struggled the most with basic assignments this year so I would say the +/- stat is actually revealing here.

Just further contextualizing

Yes I know. I already provided that contextual data here

Other interesting things to note about EV GA

Since Dec 1:
Slaf 12
Nick 11
Cole 10
Newhook 9
Dach 6

Since Nov 1
Slaf 22
Nick 21
Cole 19
Newhook 19
Dach 15

So actually, Dach’s GA ratio is decreasing as the season progresses relative to his top 6 counter parts. In fact, they are all performing worse than him by quite a margin. In case of Slaf and Nick, it’s 40-50% worse

Seems like his atrocious plus minus is due to a bad month of October coupled with a complete inability to produce offense. In fact, it’s the latter that is maintaining a very poor plus/minus stat.

This is not to say Dach has been good. He’s been shit. But the plus/minute gets thrown around here so damn mindlessly to parrot a narrative.

Good day

Again, the awful plus minus is more of an indication of his atrocious offense. His EV GA numbers are comparable to his top 6 peers and since November he’s actually been on the ice for less goals against.

The issue with respect to plus:minus is he has been a black hole offensively for himself and Ice mates

 

[Sorinth]

No.

Ozone starts are a *percentage* of how they begin their shifts. Players listed have the highest % starts in the ozone. It’s not a slightly modified TOI.

You prove as much by listing 2 statistically insignificant players above, in Roy and Pez.

Not what I said. I wasn't sure whether you were talking about % or raw numbers. If it's % then you get a bunch of crappy players who the coach is trying to shelter, if you go by raw numbers it's going to be mostly TOI because the more you play the more faceoffs you'll end up taking.

Either way it's not a great way to measure QoC.

 

[ReHabs]

Dach probably gets tougher matchups in away games when teams are looking to exploit him, but that just means he's exploitable.

Shame on other teams for exploiting him. Sickening to see how dirty and senseless the violence has gotten.

Since when have they forgotten to ease up against players who had surgery over a year ago? What happened to the gentlemanly sport I loved?

 

[Andy]

I think @Sorinth brought up a good point regarding home vs away and last change.

Dach probably gets tougher matchups in away games when teams are looking to exploit him, but that just means he's exploitable.

So I don’t understand now, Dach has a terrible plus/minus because he’s playing against both lesser and tougher matchups?

The explanations are getting convoluted now. The simple answer is this:

He has comparable EV GA numbers to all top 6 forwards on the habs. In fact, since Nov he’s had the least EV GA of the top 6. He also has similar DZ and OZ % to Slaf, Suz, and Cole. Where he is atrocious is being on the ice for EV GF. This means his comparable GA to the other top 6 players aren’t being offset by EV GF because has been bad offensively. He’s not even getting pluses by other people on the ice scoring.

This doesn’t mean he’s playing well. He’s been bad. But the plus minus stat gets tossed around mindlessly when it doesn’t indicate exactly what people are trying to imply by pointing to it, i.e., atrocious defensive play. His defensive metrics are similar to Nick, Slaf, Caufield

Though I’m glad to see how much it has triggered the negative nancys in this thread

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

So I don’t understand now, Dach has a terrible plus/minus because he’s playing against both lesser and tougher matchups?

The explanations are getting convoluted now. The simple answer is this:

He has comparable EV GA numbers to all top 6 forwards on the habs. In fact, since Nov he’s had the least EV GA of the top 6. He also has similar DZ and OZ % to Slaf, Suz, and Cole. Where he is atrocious is being on the ice for EV GF. This means his comparable GA to the other top 6 players aren’t being offset by EV GF because has been bad offensively. He’s not even getting pluses by other people on the ice scoring.

This doesn’t mean he’s playing well. He’s been bad. But the plus minus stat gets tossed around mindlessly when it doesn’t indicate exactly what people are trying to imply by pointing to it, i.e., atrocious defensive play. His defensive metrics are similar to Nick, Slaf, Caufield

Though I’m glad to see how much it has triggered the negative nancys in this thread

No it's unrelated I'm just reflecting on quality of competition debates and I tend to forget about last change and the effects it can have. It's hard to quantify though without going through and looking at every games

When given the choice I assume most teams would throw out their best defensive line against Suzuki, meaning Suzuki has tougher matchups in road games. I don't know enough about coaching around the league though, do teams want to go top line vs top line or top line vs checking line?

Then you have to factor in the score and whether it's a close game or not and it becomes extra hard to quantify, and what percentage of line changes are done on the fly vs after the whistle.

Anyways not sure how I'm triggered, we're mostly in agreement, he has been bad defensively this season and horrible offensively, that leads to a bad +/-. You're trying to have a gotcha moment and say his +/- is because of bad offense instead of bad defense... okay? You are the only one here saying +/- is only a defense stat, of course you have to factor offense in too.

 

[Andy]

No it's unrelated I'm just reflecting on quality of competition debates and I tend to forget about last change and the effects it can have. It's hard to quantify though without going through and looking at every games

When given the choice I assume most teams would throw out their best defensive line against Suzuki, meaning Suzuki has tougher matchups in road games. I don't know enough about coaching around the league though, do teams want to go top line vs top line or top line vs checking line?

Then you have to factor in the score and whether it's a close game or not and it becomes extra hard to quantify, and what percentage of line changes are done on the fly vs after the whistle.

Anyways not sure how I'm triggered, we're mostly in agreement, he has been bad defensively this season and horrible offensively, that leads to a bad +/-. You're trying to have a gotcha moment and say his +/- is because of bad offense instead of bad defense... okay? You are the only one here saying +/- is only a defense stat, of course you have to factor offense in too.

I’m not trying to make any gotchya. I just see people throw around this stat constantly and it has zero meaning without any context or detail to me.

 

[Sorinth]

When given the choice I assume most teams would throw out their best defensive line against Suzuki, meaning Suzuki has tougher matchups in road games. I don't know enough about coaching around the league though, do teams want to go top line vs top line or top line vs checking line?

That's the problem, the best defensive line doesn't mean toughest matchups. As an example against Detroit we saw them very deliberately use Compher as a checking line against Suzuki, and avoid the Larkin vs Suzuki matchup. For us, our best defensive line is probably Evans', but we don't generally play the matchup game very much and so generally have Suzuki going up against top lines when we are at home. It always varies by team/coach, and in the end it's just not that big of a difference over the course of the regular season, it takes on a bit more relevance in the playoffs where there's more focus on it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It’s not useless. It’s just useless when used alone.

When you have an almost identical season and a 45 point swing in plus minus - YES it’s a useless stat. It’s highly dependent on the team you play on, it’s got a lot of noise and you can benefit or be punished without being at fault or at credit for a goal.

Those ‘other stats’ you’re talking about? Use them instead. Plus minus is bullshit.

Dach supporters are easily the biggest goalpost movers on this entire board. You'd think Kirby has ilicit pictures of them the way they'd jump in front of a bus to defend him.

Uh, no.

He’s sucked. But using plus minus as a stat also sucks.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

They are extremely protective of him in the 2C spot. Any mention of any other player in that spot, and they are quick to tell you how terrible that suggestion is.

This isn’t true either. I think most people are all for getting a solid 2nd line center. We don’t have to get rid of Dach, but we clearly can’t count on him in that role going forward.

Production doesn't matter though. Improved skating is all we are looking at here. Also, faceoffs don't matter, either.

?????

The question was whether or not +/- was a garbage stat. It is.

That doesn’t mean Dach’s been good this year. It just means that there are far better ways of showing how a player is performing. Again, Lane Hutson is -16. There are tons of people using this to trash him on the main boards. It’s silly.

Dach def zone starts 44.3%
Suzuki def zone starts 44.2%
Caufield def zone starts 42.3%
Slaf 45.5

Ozone starts
Dach 55.7
Suzuki 55.1%
Caufield 57.3%
Slaf 55.5%

All have comparable goals against totals.

since Nov 1, he’s actually been on the ice for the least amount of GA by a fair margin compared to his other top 6 counter parts.

His awful Plus minus is a function of an awful October and atrocious offensive production

“But… but….”

I don’t get why people are hung up on this.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Again, Lane Hutson is -16

He’s not -16.

And the post you’re replying to was sarcastic, I believe.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He’s not -16.

-14?

Wow. Why didn’t you say so earlier? That changes everything!

And the post you’re replying to was sarcastic, I believe.

I replied to four or five posts….

None of it changes the fact that plus minus is a useless stat.