Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal part 2

[Kobe Armstrong]

+/- sucks as a stat. Use something else.

And like I said, you don’t even need to do that. We’re all in agreement with you that he’s played poorly this year.

Right but it takes a special kind of bad to have a +/- that low, it's almost unexplainable.

 

[Andy]

Right but it takes a special kind of bad to have a +/- that low, it's almost unexplainable.

It’s very explainable. He’s not producing offensively to bring him closer to zero. And he’s not getting pluses from his ice mates scoring.

What I would like to see is how much more he is in the ice for goals against relative to his teammates. For sure worse, but how much worse would be interesting. I’ll look it up

 

[Andy]

So I had a look.

Dach has been on the ice for 29 EV GA. Same as Caufield.

Suzuki has been on ice for 33 EV GA. Newhook has been ice for 28GA, Slaf for 27 GA

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context.

So defensively, he’s been “as bad” as the rest of the top 6 in terms of this stat.

The issue is that he’s been really bad offensively, which yah we’ve all seen it. I do feel like he’s been playing much better the last 5 games. We’ll see

 

[Sorinth]

Purely looking at +/- is silly, but that's not what I'm doing. We have both seen all of the games and what has happened on the ice. +/- IS useful with context.

Hutson and Dach play for one of the worst teams in the league and are both brutal defensively.

Hutson is an undersized rookie who was always going to be subpar defensively, and he's playing 20+ minutes a game. Having a bad +/- makes sense.

Dach is on the 2nd line getting 16 minutes a game with 56% offensive zone starts. He gets the easier matchups. There's no way his +/- should be that bad unless he is having an awful year.

Some of it can be chalked up to luck, it seems like every Dach turnover results in a goal against these days and it feels like he can't catch a break. Still, if he played better, his +/- would be better.

Nobody will dispute that Dach has been bad, but why use a bad/flawed stat when there are plenty of other ways to show why Dach has been bad. And it's flawed even in Dach's case, of his -24, almost 40% hasn't come at 5 on 5, do we really think his -5 while we've pulled the goalie is a representation of his play.

Dach has been bad, there's no need to bring +/- into it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Right but it takes a special kind of bad to have a +/- that low, it's almost unexplainable.

Right. It’s unexplainable because the stat sucks so bad.

Ovechkin had back to back anlmost identical seasons. The only real difference was a massive difference in plus minus. His possession numbers were close. His goals and assists were close. It was the same season but a FORTY FIVE point swing in plus/minus. There’s a whole lot of noise in that stat.

Yeah, Dach’s been bad but he’s also been really snakebit. It seems like anytime he makes a mistake it’s in the net. That’s not normal either.

 

[The Great Weal]

So I had a look.

Dach has been on the ice for 29 EV GA. Same as Caufield.

Suzuki has been on ice for 33 EV GA. Newhook has been ice for 28GA, Slaf for 27 GA

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context

So you ignore how Suzuki and Caufield face way harder matchups yet are upset about the lack of context. Very ironic. If Dach was playing 20 minutes a game facing the hardest matchups, the +/- argument wouldn’t hold much weight. But yes, you are right that him being dog shit offensively is making it look worse. It’s not an argument that works in Dach’s favour.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

So I had a look.

Dach has been on the ice for 29 EV GA. Same as Caufield.

Suzuki has been on ice for 33 EV GA. Newhook has been ice for 28GA, Slaf for 27 GA

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context.

So defensively, he’s been “as bad” as the rest of the top 6 in terms of this stat

Dach is also sporting an ugly PDO of 940.

 

[morhilane]

So I had a look.

Dach has been on the ice for 29 EV GA. Same as Caufield.

Suzuki has been on ice for 33 EV GA.

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context

Yeah, his differential is mostly that his line rarely produce, the definition of a blackhole sucking offense.

 

[Andy]

So you ignore how Suzuki and Caufield face way harder matchups yet are upset about the lack of context. Very ironic. If Dach was playing 20 minutes a game facing the hardest matchups, the +/- argument wouldn’t hold much weight. But yes, you are right that him being dog shit offensively is making it look worse. It’s not an argument that works in Dach’s favour.

Caufield haven’t played all their games together this season though. They were split for a number of games. The whole top 6 has similar GA stats. So there is no outlier defensively.

This is classic trying to problematize something when the data shows the outlier to be elsewhere: bad offence.

Yeah, his differential is mostly that his line rarely produce, the definition of a blackhole sucking offense.

Exactly. But the narrative, at least to me, has been to use the stat to show how bad he is defensively, when in fact the problem is reverse.

 

[Sorinth]

So I had a look.

Dach has been on the ice for 29 EV GA. Same as Caufield.

Suzuki has been on ice for 33 EV GA.

So his poor plus/minus is purely from the fact that he’s generated very little offence this season. In fact, he’s been the worse at this season for skaters who played more than 20 games.

I’m sad at the mental laziness of this board to have spoken so much about this stat with providing zero context

Not that I like expected goals stat, but there's a pretty wild divergence between GF% and xGF% in Dach's case. He's at 25.81% GF%, but his xGF% is 42.90% which is isn't really far off Caufield's 44.39%. And when we look at the GF and GA it shows exactly what you're saying, the lack of scoring is the issue. He has 8 GF but an xGF of 17.71, his GA is 24 and his xGA is 23.57.

I'd even go as far to say the high danger s% when he's on the ice is the culprit. He's been on the ice for 69 HD chances for (Suzuki is 68 for reference), but they only scored on 2 of those 69 chances, whereas Suzuki is at 10. And honestly last game had the annectodal evidence of that phenomenon, where Dach actually made a great play to get inside the D and throw a reverse hit to get space but then gets stopped twice.

 

[The Great Weal]

Caufield haven’t played all their games together this season though. They were split for a number of games.

If you're talking about Suzuki and Caufield, they've been together for over 320 minutes at even strength. After that, Cole played with Jake and Gally for 43 minutes. Did you expect them to play together 100% of the time? Not to mention that Dach also did play with both on a line for 78 minutes.

The whole top 6 has similar GA stats. So there is no outlier defensively.

This is classic trying to problematize something when the data shows the outlier to be elsewhere: bad offence.

But like I said, ice time and matchup differences need to be taken into account. If a player plays 30 minutes a game against the other team's top players, their -30 looks a lot different than a guy who's -30 and plays 10 minutes a game against the other team's 4th line.

Do you genuinely believe that Dach has been equally bad defensively as Suzuki and Caufield?

 

[Ozmodiar]

+/- sucks as a stat. Use something else.

And like I said, you don’t even need to do that. We’re all in agreement with you that he’s played poorly this year.

It’s not useless. It’s just useless when used alone.

It’s definitely a stat that will get the attention of decision makers, but they’ll use it carefully. They’ll ask:

- how does he compare to team/line mates?
- does this confirm what we see on the ice?
- zone starts / usage related?

When it comes to Dach, and you see Evans and Suzuki with +2 and 0, respectively, and watch the games … you’ll conclude that Dach’s and his line are being exploited, and he’s -10 worse than any team mate. He’s worse than his bad team’s differential.

 

[Andy]

If you're talking about Suzuki and Caufield, they've been together for over 320 minutes at even strength. After that, Cole played with Jake and Gally for 43 minutes. Did you expect them to play together 100% of the time? Not to mention that Dach also did play with both on a line for 78 minutes.

But like I said, ice time and matchup differences need to be taken into account. If a player plays 30 minutes a game against the other team's top players, their -30 looks a lot different than a guy who's -30 and plays 10 minutes a game against the other team's 4th line.

Do you genuinely believe that Dach has been equally bad defensively as Suzuki and Caufield?

It’s for you to demonstrate that Kirby is on the ice for an equal amount of goals against lesser competition.

When I look at the EV GA for the top 6, Kirby doesn’t really appear as an outlier:
Suzuki 33
Caufield 29
Dach 29
Newhook 28
Slaf 27
Then you have Evans 25

So somehow despite being in the same range as his top 6 peers for GA, it’s only Kirby that is worse because of some ill defined concept of quality of opposition?

Your counter argument just screams shifting of narrative.

At the end of the day, Kirby’s +/- is bad because his offense has been trash. Because defensively in terms of pure GA, he’s in the same ball park as his peers. He also gets the same OZ % as his top 6 peers, so it’s not like Nick and Cole are starting behind the play.

 

[The Great Weal]

It’s for you to demonstrate that Kirby is on the ice for an equal amount of goals against lesser competition.

If you can't put together that facing harder matchups and playing more minutes on a really bad team will likely result in more goals allowed than the secondary players with way easier minutes, then I can't help you with that. It's common sense. You tried to bring up "lack of context" yet ignore this and are being deliberately obtuse.

 

[Andy]

If you can't put together that facing harder matchups and playing more minutes on a really bad team will likely result in more goals allowed than the secondary players with way easier minutes, then I can't help you with that. It's common sense. You tried to bring up "lack of context" yet ignore this and are being deliberately obtuse.

If that is the case, then YOU show it.

Show that Dach is on the ice for MORE GOAL AGAINST while facing LESSER OPPOSITION.

This is your claim so demonstrate it.

 

[The Great Weal]

If that is the case, then YOU show it.

Show that Dach is on the ice for MORE GOAL AGAINST while facing LESSER OPPOSITION.

This is your claim so demonstrate it.

You mean like how I demonstrated that your "Caufield haven’t played all their games together this season though. They were split for a number of games." argument was complete nonsense? Or is my minutes breakdown which you ignored not good enough?

You brought up how upset you were about the lack of context but you do it yourself. It's incredibly hypocritical.

 

[Andy]

You mean like how I demonstrated that your "Caufield haven’t played all their games together this season though. They were split for a number of games." argument was complete nonsense? Or is my minutes breakdown which you ignored not good enough?

You brought up how upset you were about the lack of context but you do it yourself. It's incredibly hypocritical.

How does Caufield’s minute mistake change what I asked you?

Show that Kirby has been in the ice for a similar amount of goals as his top 6 peers while playing against “lesser opposition” and in more favourable situation.

Show that any deviation in EV GA relative to quality of situation and opponent is statistically significant.

Show it like you showed Caufield minutes. This is your claim. Demonstrate it

 

[Goalfield13]

OK, so the context of Dach's horrible +/- is that he is average defensively and terrible offensively. I don't see how that makes things better, and I also don't see how it makes the stat irrelevant when you factor in other things that support his terrible +/-. Dach sucks.

 

[The Great Weal]

OK, so the context of Dach's horrible +/- is that he is average defensively and terrible offensively. I don't see how that makes things better, and I also don't see how it makes the stat irrelevant when you factor in other things that support his terrible +/-. Dach sucks.

Actually it's Dach is equally bad defensively as others when you completely disregard matchup quality and ice time differences. So that's more context that was ignored for some weird reason. It's like saying playing against a teams 1st line is the same as playing against their 4th line which is untrue.

 

[Andy]

Other interesting things to note about EV GA

Since Dec 1:
Slaf 12
Nick 11
Cole 10
Newhook 9
Dach 6

Since Nov 1
Slaf 22
Nick 21
Cole 19
Newhook 19
Dach 15

So actually, Dach’s GA ratio is decreasing as the season progresses relative to his top 6 counter parts. In fact, they are all performing worse than him by quite a margin. In case of Slaf and Nick, it’s 40-50% worse

Seems like his atrocious plus minus is due to a bad month of October coupled with a complete inability to produce offense. In fact, it’s the latter that is maintaining a very poor plus/minus stat.

This is not to say Dach has been good. He’s been shit. But the plus/minute gets thrown around here so damn mindlessly to parrot a narrative.

Good day

 

[Goalfield13]

Actually it's Dach is equally bad defensively as others when you completely disregard matchup quality and ice time differences. So that's more context that was ignored for some weird reason. It's like saying playing against a teams 1st line is the same as playing against their 4th line which is untrue.

I don't find it weird at all. It is par for the course in this thread.

Other interesting things to note about EV GA

Since Dec 1:
Slaf 12
Nick 11
Cole 10
Newhook 9
Dach 6

Since Nov 1
Slaf 22
Nick 21
Cole 19
Newhook 19
Dach 15

So actually, Dach’s GA ratio is decreasing as the season progresses relative to his top 6 counter parts. In fact, they are all performing worse than him by quite a margin. In case of Slaf and Nick, it’s 40-50% worse

Seems like his atrocious plus minus is due to a bad month of October coupled with a complete inability to produce offense. In fact, it’s the latter that is maintaining a very poor plus/minus stat.

This is not to say Dach has been good. He’s been shit. But the plus/minute gets thrown around here so damn mindlessly to parrot a narrative.

Good day

Offense is important, and the guy couldn't even raise the puck when he had the game on his stick last game, and he can't set-up Laine 5on5 for a few apples after many games as well.

 

[Andy]

I don't find it weird at all. It is par for the course in this thread.


Offense is important, and the guy couldn't even raise the puck when he had the game on his stick last game, and he can't set-up Laine 5on5 for a few apples after many games as well.

Okay, but we’re not talking about the same thing.

I am talking about the misleading nature of the plus minus stat. It’s atrocious because his offense has been been. Not only is he not putting up points, but when he’s on the ice his ice mates are also not scoring.

In terms of defensive GA, shots, he’s no worse than his top 6 peers. In fact, over the past two months, they have been performing worse in that category.

What does it all mean? Nothing really other than the plus minus really doesn’t indicate much without deeper analysis. It’s so bad that it can be used to support many different, sometimes competing narratives

 

[ryan callahan]

Why is comparing him to Suzuki and Caufield supposed to make us feel better? Caufield and Suzuki are not good NHL 5v5 1st liners. Complimentary players on a contending team. Caufield and Suzuki are DeBrincat and Stephenson type of players, not of prime Kane and Kopitar's caliber. Stop deluding yourselves.

 

[Goalfield13]

Okay, but we’re not talking about the same thing.

I am talking about the misleading nature of the plus minus stat. It’s atrocious because his offense has been been. Not only is he not putting up points, but when he’s on the ice his ice mates are also not scoring.

In terms of defensive GA, shots, he’s no worse than his top 6 peers. In fact, over the past two months, they have been performing worse in that category.

What does it all mean? Nothing really other than the plus minus really doesn’t indicate much without deeper analysis. It’s so bad that it can be used to support many different, sometimes competing narratives

You said +/- is misleading and then say it is bad because his offense is bad; thus, it isn't misleading. Deeper analysis of "it isn't his defense, it's his offense" isn't that deep, bro.

 

[Andy]

You said +/- is misleading and then say it is bad because his offense is bad; thus, it isn't misleading. Deeper analysis of "it isn't his defense, it's his offense" isn't that deep, bro.

The level of immaturity in this thread is really astounding.

Yes the reason I unpacked the stat was to actually look at what it’s telling us because it’s being thrown around this thread in an undefined way to suggest all around atrocious play when in fact it’s misleading because it masks that the primary issue is a lack of offense and not necessary defense below the level of his peers.

But there has been a mental laziness that has pervaded this board.