Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal part 2

[Victoire HuGo]

Why is comparing him to Suzuki and Caufield supposed to make us feel better? Caufield and Suzuki are not good NHL 5v5 1st liners. Complimentary players on a contending team. Caufield and Suzuki are DeBrincat and Stephenson type of players, not of prime Kane and Kopitar's caliber. Stop deluding yourselves.

You know that them with Slaf was among the most dominant lines in the NHL last year right? Seems like a ridiculous thing to say. Suzuki is better than Stephenson and one cam argue Caufield is better than Debrincat who is more one dimensional, older and hasn't produced crazy numbers without Kane.

 

[ryan callahan]

You know that them with Slaf was among the most dominant lines in the NHL last year right? Seems like a ridiculous thing to say. Suzuki is better than Stephenson and one cam argue Caufield is better than Debrincat who is more one dimensional, older and hasn't produced crazy numbers without Kane.

Looking back at their advanced stats my comp might have been a hyperbole but I still stand on my point. We need a better star than those two to lead the way if we want to be a bonafide SC contender (Demidov hopefully).

 

[Sorinth]

Actually it's Dach is equally bad defensively as others when you completely disregard matchup quality and ice time differences. So that's more context that was ignored for some weird reason. It's like saying playing against a teams 1st line is the same as playing against their 4th line which is untrue.

If quality of competition is still using CF% like it was 10 years ago then it's kind of useless. On our own team the CF% leader is Pezzetta, Heineman and Condotta are 3rd and 4th on the team, Dvorak is ahead of Evans, etc...

It was a nice idea but as a stat it just didn't pan out.

And although a small sample size, against CLB Suzuki's line was out against the Monahan line for 4:16 while the Dach line was against them for 2:55, and in the game in Detroit where they had last change, Suzuki's line faced the Larkin line a measly 0:25 while Dach faced them 4:23. Over the long term Dach is going to get the easier matchups, but it's not as big as you might imagine.

 

[The Great Weal]

If quality of competition is still using CF% like it was 10 years ago then it's kind of useless. On our own team the CF% leader is Pezzetta, Heineman and Condotta are 3rd and 4th on the team, Dvorak is ahead of Evans, etc...

It was a nice idea but as a stat it just didn't pan out.

So logically speaking, do you think fewer minutes against weaker opposition should be held to the same standard as more minutes against harder opposition? It's a yes or no question.

And although a small sample size, against CLB Suzuki's line was out against the Monahan line for 4:16 while the Dach line was against them for 2:55, and in the game in Detroit where they had last change, Suzuki's line faced the Larkin line a measly 0:25 while Dach faced them 4:23. Over the long term Dach is going to get the easier matchups, but it's not as big as you might imagine.

"Although a small sample size...it's not as big as you might imagine". So you acknowledge that it's not enough of a small sample size, yet criticize me that the discrepancy isn't as large as I anticipated.

 

[Andy]

So logically speaking, do you think fewer minutes against weaker opposition should be held to the same standard as more minutes against harder opposition? It's a yes or no question.

"Although a small sample size...it's not as big as you might imagine". So you acknowledge that it's not enough of a small sample size, yet criticize me that the discrepancy isn't as large as I anticipated.

How about you do the work and show your point?

 

[Sorinth]

So logically speaking, do you think fewer minutes against weaker opposition should be held to the same standard as more minutes against harder opposition? It's a yes or no question.

"Although a small sample size...it's not as big as you might imagine". So you acknowledge that it's not enough of a small sample size, yet criticize me that the discrepancy isn't as large as I anticipated.

In those 2 games Dach faced the opposing teams top line more then Suzuki did, I don't expect that to hold up over the whole season, but it's pretty obvious that you are wrong in claiming that Dach faces much easier competition then Suzuki.

But hey feel free to manually go through every game and then post the results. Just don't expect other people to do the work for you. I was using the stats compiled here Montreal Canadiens 2024-25 season data

 

[The Great Weal]

How about you do the work and show your point?

You don't even do your own work to prove a point with your argument (which was wrong) about Caufield's minutes, why are you expecting me to do it?

In those 2 games Dach faced the opposing teams top line more then Suzuki did

You literally said, "CLB Suzuki's line was out against the Monahan line for 4:16 while the Dach line was against them for 2:55". So he didn't face the top line more than Suzuki did here.

I don't expect that to hold up over the whole season, but it's pretty obvious that you are wrong in claiming that Dach faces much easier competition then Suzuki.

Again, you literally acknowledged that it's a small sample size but are saying that I'm wrong. You can't even correctly count the two games here as you contradicted yourself. Either own up and admit that one game against Detroit is telling and that Suzuki actually doesn't face harder competition (in which case you shouldn't have said it's a small sample size since it defeats your argument here), or admit that it's a small sample size so this competition quality isn't entirely representative (which means I'm not actually wrong).

But hey feel free to manually go through every game and then post the results. Just don't expect other people to do the work for you. I was using the stats compiled here Montreal Canadiens 2024-25 season data

I'm good. You're contradicting yourself nonstop so I'm not going to do your homework for you when you're not even doing a good job at presenting it.

Hell even in the other Detroit game it actually says that Suzuki's line faced Larkin's line for 2:43 (more than any other matchup) minutes while Dach's faced Kane's line for 1:57.

 

[Andy]

In those 2 games Dach faced the opposing teams top line more then Suzuki did, I don't expect that to hold up over the whole season, but it's pretty obvious that you are wrong in claiming that Dach faces much easier competition then Suzuki.

But hey feel free to manually go through every game and then post the results. Just don't expect other people to do the work for you. I was using the stats compiled here Montreal Canadiens 2024-25 season data

I’ve been looking at the site. Two things that are apparanr

1. It’s hard to define what is a team’s toughest matchups
2. Dachs icetime gets split mostly among the opposing teams 1st or 2nd lines. Rarely the fourth. Sometimes their 3rd.

What does that say? I’m not sure, because quality opposition is such a nebulous term

You don't even do your own work to prove a point with your argument (which was wrong) about Caufield's minutes, why are you expecting me to do it?

I misremembered and didn’t check the actual usage. You brought data and I concede.

Now bring the data for the rest of your point

 

[Sorinth]

You don't even do your own work to prove a point with your argument (which was wrong) about Caufield's minutes, why are you expecting me to do it?

You literally said, "CLB Suzuki's line was out against the Monahan line for 4:16 while the Dach line was against them for 2:55". So he didn't face the top line more than Suzuki did here.

Again, you literally acknowledged that it's a small sample size but are saying that I'm wrong. You can't even correctly count the two games here as you contradicted yourself. Either own up and admit that one game against Detroit is telling and that Suzuki actually doesn't face harder competition (in which case you shouldn't have said it's a small sample size since it defeats your argument here), or admit that it's a small sample size so this competition quality isn't entirely representative (which means I'm not actually wrong).

I'm good. You're contradicting yourself nonstop so I'm not going to do your homework for you when you're not even doing a good job at presenting it.

In the two games Dach played against the top line for a combined 7:18 while Suzuki played against the top line for a combined 4:41. So there's no contradiction, yes it's a small sample size so I'm not going to make any sweeping statements but so far the only evidence presented shows that you are wrong. If you'd like to go through more games to provide evidence that you aren't wrong feel free. But as of right now the evidence says you are wrong.

 

[Andy]

to add to the above point, Dach played 8 games or so with Caufield and Nick (according to that website) so he would have faced the “best opposition.”

Then he played another 5ish games with Nick and Slaf. In theory he would have also faced the “best opposition.”

In any event, the argument is meaningless until that poster shows his workm

 

[Sorinth]

I’ve been looking at the site. Two things that are apparanr

1. It’s hard to define what is a team’s toughest matchups
2. Dachs icetime gets split mostly among the opposing teams 1st or 2nd lines. Rarely the fourth. Sometimes their 3rd.

What does that say? I’m not sure, because quality opposition is such a nebulous term

Some teams are comfortable playing power on power, others prefer to use a shutdown line against opposing teams best lines and try to get their top lines out against weaker matchups. Plus with changes on the fly and icing rules for the most part everybody will get time against everyone. Which is why quality of competition just isn't worth all that much.

 

[The Great Weal]

In the two games Dach played against the top line for a combined 7:18 while Suzuki played against the top line for a combined 4:41. So there's no contradiction, yes it's a small sample size so I'm not going to make any sweeping statements but so far the only evidence presented shows that you are wrong. If you'd like to go through more games to provide evidence that you aren't wrong feel free. But as of right now the evidence says you are wrong.

Why are you combining games? That's outrageously disingenuous. Each game is its own game. You can't just pick and choose games to your liking. So if you consider Larkin/Raymond as the toughest matchups (which would be appropriate), Dach played against them for 1 minute and 1 second in one game while Suzuki/CC had 5 minutes and 21 seconds. In the other game, it was 25 seconds for Suzuki/CC and 4 minutes and 23 seconds for Dach.

So even with your disingenuous way of combining games, Suzuki/CC played 5 minutes and 46 seconds against them while Dach had 5 minutes and 24 seconds. You are still wrong here.

You can't say I'm wrong when you admit it's not an appropriate sample size. In fact, you are also wrong here because the Columbus game shows that Suzuki/CC in fact played more against their top line (which you said otherwise making you dead wrong). I mentioned this in my previous post and you failed to acknowledge it. It's probably because you are the wrong one but can't admit it. Hell, even in that Columbus game, not only did Suzuki/CC face Monahan's line more than Dach did, but they also faced Sillinger's line for over 6 minutes in addition to the Monahan matchup.

You're proving my point for me. Take the L and move on. If you want to make the argument that Suzuki/CC don't face the toughest competition every single game then yes you made that point in the isolated Detroit game from the 3 game sample sizes you're using. But you're contradicting yourself all over the place and are incorrectly calling me wrong.

 

[Sorinth]

Why are you combining games? That's outrageously disingenuous. Each game is its own game. You can't just pick and choose games to your liking. So if you consider Larkin/Raymond as the toughest matchups (which would be appropriate), Dach played against them for 1 minute and 1 second in one game while Suzuki/CC had 5 minutes and 21 seconds. In the other game, it was 25 seconds for Suzuki/CC and 4 minutes and 23 seconds for Dach.

So even with your disingenuous way of combining games, Suzuki/CC played 5 minutes and 46 seconds against them while Dach had 5 minutes and 24 seconds. You are still wrong here.

You can't say I'm wrong when you admit it's not an appropriate sample size. In fact, you are also wrong here because the Columbus game shows that Suzuki/CC in fact played more against their top line (which you said otherwise making you dead wrong). I mentioned this in my previous post and you failed to acknowledge it. It's probably because you are the wrong one but can't admit it. Hell, even in that Columbus game, not only did Suzuki/CC face Monahan's line more than Dach did, but they also faced Sillinger's line for over 6 minutes in addition to the Monahan matchup.

You're proving my point for me. Take the L and move on. If you want to make the argument that Suzuki/CC don't face the toughest competition every single game then yes you made that point in the isolated Detroit game from the 3 game sample sizes you're using. But you're contradicting yourself all over the place and are incorrectly calling me wrong.

So how would you propose measuring who faces the toughest competition over the course of a season if you don't add the games together?

For the record I skipped over the game where Detroit had 12 different line combinations because I didn't feel like doing all that work. Since you did the numbers are now Suzuki facing the top line for 10:02 vs Dach at 8:19, doesn't seem like a big difference in quality of competition there.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Okay, but we’re not talking about the same thing.

I am talking about the misleading nature of the plus minus stat. It’s atrocious because his offense has been been. Not only is he not putting up points, but when he’s on the ice his ice mates are also not scoring.

In terms of defensive GA, shots, he’s no worse than his top 6 peers. In fact, over the past two months, they have been performing worse in that category.

What does it all mean? Nothing really other than the plus minus really doesn’t indicate much without deeper analysis. It’s so bad that it can be used to support many different, sometimes competing narratives

His terrible offense outweighs whatever his defensive impact is. Similar to how someone's terrible defense can outweigh whatever their offensive impact is.

Isn't that just the nature of the +/- stat? Not sure why it's so misleading

You only see high scoring Stars like Ovechkin have huge negative seasons when they get tons of PP points

 

[The Great Weal]

So how would you propose measuring who faces the toughest competition over the course of a season if you don't add the games together?

For the record I skipped over the game where Detroit had 12 different line combinations because I didn't feel like doing all that work. Since you did the numbers are now Suzuki facing the top line for 10:02 vs Dach at 8:19, doesn't seem like a big difference in quality of competition there.

Overall, even in your cherry-picked games, you were wrong. 0/2 on Dach facing top competition more than Suzuki.

 

[Sorinth]

Overall, even in your cherry-picked games, you were wrong. 0/2 on Dach facing top competition more than Suzuki.

Reading comprehension doesn't seem to be your strong suit but I'm not 0 for anything, my claim was that there probably isn't a significant difference between the two. And so far it's less then 2mins over 3 games which isn't significant. Your claim was that there was a significant difference, so please explain how 10min over 3 games of facing the opposing teams best line is significantly different then 8min over 3 games of facing the opposing teams best line, or go through more games to show that there is a bigger difference. Because right now you are 100% wrong and doubling down on nonsense.

 

[Ozmodiar]

So how would you propose measuring who faces the toughest competition over the course of a season if you don't add the games together?

For the record I skipped over the game where Detroit had 12 different line combinations because I didn't feel like doing all that work. Since you did the numbers are now Suzuki facing the top line for 10:02 vs Dach at 8:19, doesn't seem like a big difference in quality of competition there.

QoC found to be of little use over short time frames like a game or a few games.

Even over a full season, I believe quality of team mates is preferable because it offers more consistency.

The simplest way to get an idea of QoC is to look at d-zone starts. Teams send out their best in the o-zone. Analytics folks have found looking at QoC AND D-zone % to be somewhat redundant.

Anyway…. Dach has the lowest D-zone start % on the team, 5 on 5, this season.

 

[The Great Weal]

Reading comprehension doesn't seem to be your strong suit but I'm not 0 for anything,

I would say rudimentary addition and logical thinking aren't strong suits for you, but stubbornness is one of your strengths for sure.

You acknowledged the sample size was small and are calling me wrong. That's contradictory as you admit your sample size doesn't mean much. You were wrong.

You said Dach faced the Monahan line more than Suzuki/CC. You were wrong.

You said Dach faced the Larkin/Raymond combo more than Suzuki/CC. You were wrong.

I don't know what's more impressive, your ability to be wrong about so many things in one topic, or your unwillingness to admit you are wrong about any of them.

 

[Goalfield13]

QoC found to be of little use over short time frames like a game or a few games.

Even over a full season, I believe quality of team mates is preferable because it offers more consistency.

The simplest way to get an idea of QoC is to look at d-zone starts. Teams send out their best in the o-zone. Analytics folks have found looking at QoC AND D-zone % to be somewhat redundant.

Anyway…. Dach has the lowest D-zone start % on the team, 5 on 5, this season.

Of course they started him in the O-zone because he's such an offensive beast and great at the dot! That's the only reasonable explanation!

 

[The Great Weal]

Anyway…. Dach has the lowest D-zone start % on the team, 5 on 5, this season.

Okay and? If you use that half-a-period sample in that random game back in November, Suzuki had fewer D-zone start than him. Checkmate.

 

[Sorinth]

You acknowledged the sample size was small and are calling me wrong. That's contradictory as you admit your sample size doesn't mean much. You were wrong.

It's not at all contradictory, a sample size of 2 games was better then the 0 game sample size you provided. You then added the Detroit game I skipped so we are now at a sample size of 3 games, and so far the data shows that you were wrong, there hasn't been a significant difference in quality of competition. More data might change that, but it might not, if you want to prove your right then provide the data that proves your point.

You said Dach faced the Monahan line more than Suzuki/CC. You were wrong.

No I didn't I said the opposite.

You said Dach faced the Larkin/Raymond combo more than Suzuki/CC. You were wrong.

In the one game I looked at yes Dach played against Larkin more then Suzuki. In the combined games yes Suzuki played more, but the amount is still very small which supports my point that there is no significant difference.

I don't know what's more impressive, your ability to be wrong about so many things in one topic, or your unwillingness to admit you are wrong about any of them.

Right back at you bud!

 

[Sorinth]

QoC found to be of little use over short time frames like a game or a few games.

Even over a full season, I believe quality of team mates is preferable because it offers more consistency.

The simplest way to get an idea of QoC is to look at d-zone starts. Teams send out their best in the o-zone. Analytics folks have found looking at QoC AND D-zone % to be somewhat redundant.

Anyway…. Dach has the lowest D-zone start % on the team, 5 on 5, this season.

Yes from what I recall most advanced stat places gave up on QoC using Corsi because it turned out to just not be very relevant. Whereas QoT was much more significant.

Zone starts tells a part of a story, just not really one relevant to QoC. Teams don't actually send out their best in the o-zone, it's also used to shelter people. I mean just look at Dach, we send him out for mostly o-zones but he's not the best.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Zone starts tells a part of a story, just not really one relevant to QoC. Teams don't actually send out their best in the o-zone, it's also used to shelter people. I mean just look at Dach, we send him out for mostly o-zones but he's not the best.

This is false.

Using both D-zone starts + QoC is avoided in analysis to avoid double counting.

The Habs send out send out their best in o-zone. Top 6 in o-zone starts is also their top 6 in the lineup.

Oilers top 3 o-zone starts, 5v5: mcdavid, Drai, Hyman
Leafs: matthews , marner, Nylander

 

[Sorinth]

This is false.

Using both D-zone starts + QoC is avoided in analysis to avoid double counting.

The Habs send out send out their best in o-zone. Top 6 in o-zone starts is also their top 6 in the lineup.

Oilers top 3 o-zone starts, 5v5: mcdavid, Drai, Hyman
Leafs: matthews , marner, Nylander

Our top-5 in OZ% is Roy, Laine, Dach, Pezzetta, Caufield. Sure some good ones there but also not clearly our best.

If your going by raw OZ starts then honestly that's just a slightly modified TOI.

 

[ryan callahan]

Dach supporters are easily the biggest goalpost movers on this entire board. You'd think Kirby has ilicit pictures of them the way they'd jump in front of a bus to defend him.