Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal part 2

[DAChampion]

I do expect some successes. In particular, Hutson and Mallioux, but I’ve never seen a single line of prospects workout, ever. It just doesn’t happen and it won’t this time either.

I think the way to go is simply to use expected number of players = number of prospects times average probability of success of each player. So when there are a lot of legit prospects, you expect a few successes, even if you don't know which ones.

For the forwards (feel free to replace the numbers with what you seen more appropriate):

Heineken: 0.20
Roy: 0.33
Farrell: 0.10
RHP: 0.20
Kidney: 0.05
Mesar: 0.05
Beck: 0.20
Ylonen: 0.20
All others combined: 0.17

Where the numbers are the probability of a player becoming an effective middle six forward. So given that, we should expect 1 or 2 effective NHL middle six forwards, regardless that we don't know whom it will be.

What happens if you assign the numbers?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

First season with Habs he show that why he has been compared to Ryan Getzlaf in his draft year. He have better skating ability too. Really good protection of puck, really good two-way game, really good passing ability, really good hands aswell. This guy is special and he is my favorite forward at this moment. Yeah I'm a big fan of Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf, but Dach have the highest potential in my mind. Even if Slaf looks very unique aswell. I think Dach have much more to show than his actually show with Habs so far!

I’d be happy if he were to turn into Gtzlaff light.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The Habs farm system is stacked in potential middle six forwards and top four dmen, so I think it's fair to expect some successes in those areas.

I think we’ll see some moves from us trading D for forwards. We’ve actually got a logjam of blueliners coming up.

As for Dach, I think 20 goals is a nice target for him this year. Anything below that I think he’ll see as a disappointment. I’m hopeful for 60+ points but that’s going to depend a lot on how he’s used. As I said, if we’re going to use him as a center, I’d start him with CC to begin the year. Get his confidence going. Give Slaf some time with Nick. We shouldn’t be worrying about the standings, it’s entirely about development.

 

[26Mats]

Monahan is a fine RW complement to the CC-Suzuki duo for now.
Maybe not as good as Dach but still much more offensively capable than Anderson. Could also take faceoffs on his strong side.

Letting Dach continue his work at center, this time with much better wingers than Drouin and Hoffman.

CC-Suzuki-Monahan
Slaf-Dach-Newhook

personally i'd give CC-Dach a shot, but otherwise this is how i hope MSL sees it

I agree that I want to see Dach continue to develop at C, and also that I'd like to see him with Dach. I also agree with Slaf and Newhook in the top six on the wings, and not Anderson with Suzuki and Caufield.

Only thing I'll say is, I see RHP and anderson as an excellent duo of wingers, especially only on the 3rd line. But I'd rather they have a good C. So I'd use Monahan between them on the 3rd line. Who then plays with Suzuki and Caufield? I'd hope someone can emerge out of camp like Heineman or Roy. I also think it's possible when Dvo comes back he could produce next to Cole and nick, and thus get his trade value up.

Maybe Dach does get Cole eventually, and then RHP and Anderson play with Suzuki again. That leaves Monahan with 2 of Slaf, Newhook, and hopefully a young guy like Heineman or Roy. Some good options. Maybe if Beck emerges at camp as the 3c, Monahan plays with Cole and Nick... Would be nice to get Monahan, Dvo, and Anderson producing and their trade values up. I'm liking what we're doing with our 1sts and 2nds.

 

[Kaladin]

We’re talking about an 22 year old player. Again, nobody is expecting him to be Brett Hull. But there’s obviously been improvement and your posts talk as though there hasn’t.

Don’t confuse negativity with being ‘realistic.’

Dach is working on a weakness. That’s it. He’s been working on it for a while and last year saw some results. No more, no less.

And I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think he can crack 20 goals. If he doesn’t then I think everyone here will be disappointed on that front.

My posts talk as if it's too soon to say if there has been improvement or not vs an outlier year. Which is simply a fact. If you came back and said his shooting percentage will likely go down from almost doubling but with his newfound confidence in his shot he'll shoot a lot more which will balance out the reduced % and get him to 20+ anyways. At least that's a argument based on some metrics I could get behind.

Instead, you come back with your hopes and dreams message. I would suggest Habs fan focus more on his amazing ability to pass to players with better shots. His on ice awareness and vision is honestly unreal. That's where the kid truly shines and will be a force for us. Nothing wrong with being a ~15 goals 50+ assists guy in his prime.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

My posts talk as if it's too soon to say if there has been improvement or not vs an outlier year. Which is simply a fact. If you came back and said his shooting percentage will likely go down from almost doubling but with his newfound confidence in his shot he'll shoot a lot more which will balance out the reduced % and get him to 20+ anyways. At least that's an argument based on some metrics I could get behind.

That’s the whole point man… he’s young and yet you’re going on about how he’s tried to improve but hasn’t.

Instead, you come back with your hopes and dreams message. I would suggest Habs fan focus more on his amazing ability to pass to players with better shots. His on ice awareness and vision is honestly unreal. That's where the kid truly shines and will be a force for us. Nothing wrong with being a ~15 goals 50+ assists guy in his prime.

I would suggest you practice what you preach. Either it’s too early to know what he’ll be or not. And if it’s too early then I see no reason for the negativity you’re bringing in terms of his goal scoring. It’s also strange you say he hasn’t improved when his numbers clearly have.

Everyone knows his shot needs work. He’s spending time after class working on it. That’s a good thing.

And if it’s too early to know anything, then stop telling everyone that he’s tried and failed to improve…. You can’t have it both ways.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Haven’t heard this before either!!

What other prospects did is irrelevant. Beck and Roy will be in the NHL even if it is only as 4th liners. RHP should be if he builds on last years performance.

 

[Miller Time]

I’d be happy if he were to turn into Gtzlaff light.

Forget "lite", it's not that much of a stretch to see Dach become even better... Very similar D+4 production, Getzlaf only became a ppg player in his D+5 season (& this as the #1C on a team with Pronger/Niedermayer as his top pairing D)...

Dach has the tools to be a better end to end player, the bigger question is wether he builds the confidence & gets the support to hit the high end of his offensive potential the way Getzlaf eventually did.

 

[Scriptor]

They already said Newhook was going to play in the top 6 rather than the 3rd line minutes he was getting in COL.

Fine, that changes what, exactly? My initialproposalhad Slafkovsky - Monahan - Nehook as the second line and a repeat of the chemistry between RHP and Anderson from last year, only with Dvorak C on the third line. I'd growth san NHL tryout for Beck between those two if Dvorak is out for a few games to start the season.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Forget "lite", it's not that much of a stretch to see Dach become even better... Very similar D+4 production, Getzlaf only became a ppg player in his D+5 season (& this as the #1C on a team with Pronger/Niedermayer as his top pairing D)...

Dach has the tools to be a better end to end player, the bigger question is wether he builds the confidence & gets the support to hit the high end of his offensive potential the way Getzlaf eventually did.

I think Dach will need CC to put up anything over 70 points. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. There’s not really another winger in the lineup who I see as a real trigger man right now. I suppose they could try Slaf but he should probably be in the AHL.

 

[Scriptor]

Forget "lite", it's not that much of a stretch to see Dach become even better... Very similar D+4 production, Getzlaf only became a ppg player in his D+5 season (& this as the #1C on a team with Pronger/Niedermayer as his top pairing D)...

Dach has the tools to be a better end to end player, the bigger question is wether he builds the confidence & gets the support to hit the high end of his offensive potential the way Getzlaf eventually did.

Build the confidence playing with the team's better offensive players while we have a good enough C to support the first line of Caufield - Suzuki- Dach on the 2nd line.

The confidence, right now, for Dach, at 22, is more important, IMO. He won't magically lose his skills or instincts as a C if he plays RW on the team's first line.

The whole argument of having two quality Cs per line during the Dubois thread still stands, Dubois or not. As the play evolves, Dach or Suzuki will trade off assuming C duties, both in the O-Zone, on the forecheck and the D-zone on the backcheck.

Dach will still regularly think and act like a C. Plus, he will get the occasional F/Os. Beyond that, he can practice with a skills coach until the roster fills out with more quality wingers for the top-6 -- at which time, he can return at C.

Montréal is still a couple of years away from knowing how good it's prospects up front -- Slafkovsky, Newhook, Roy, Beck, Farrell, Heineman, Kidney -- will be.

Dach could well return toC as early as the trade deadline if Monahan is traded by then, or at the start of next year, but, even if Dach were to resume a role as atop-6 C in 2025 only, as a 24/25 year old, there would be absolutely no negative impact on his development as a C, IMO.

To claim otherwise, IMO, is just a false narrative laden with unnecessary concern.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

What other prospects did is irrelevant. Beck and Roy will be in the NHL even if it is only as 4th liners. RHP should be if he builds on last years performance.

If they are 4th liners it proves my point. They aren’t guaranteed to be anything at this point.

 

[Mudz]

I think Dach will need CC to put up anything over 70 points. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. There’s not really another winger in the lineup who I see as a real trigger man right now. I suppose they could try Slaf but he should probably be in the AHL.

Newhook will be Dach trigger man. That's why I'm having an hard time guessing the lines on day 1.

15 with 22 and 14 makes a lot of sense. Or 15 with 77 right away.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I think Dach will become the Habs no. 1 center in two years. If he can get some quality wingers he develops chemistry with, he can be a 200 ft, big, physical 80+ center that plays against the other teams top lines and won’t get pushed around.

 

[26Mats]

Newhook will be Dach trigger man. That's why I'm having an hard time guessing the lines on day 1.
15 with 22 and 14 makes a lot of sense. Or 15 with 77 right away.

22-14-15 may be too small though.

 

[Scriptor]

I agree that I want to see Dach continue to develop at C, and also that I'd like to see him with Dach. I also agree with Slaf and Newhook in the top six on the wings, and not Anderson with Suzuki and Caufield.

Only thing I'll say is, I see RHP and anderson as an excellent duo of wingers, especially only on the 3rd line. But I'd rather they have a good C. So I'd use Monahan between them on the 3rd line. Who then plays with Suzuki and Caufield? I'd hope someone can emerge out of camp like Heineman or Roy. I also think it's possible when Dvo comes back he could produce next to Cole and nick, and thus get his trade value up.

Maybe Dach does get Cole eventually, and then RHP and Anderson play with Suzuki again. That leaves Monahan with 2 of Slaf, Newhook, and hopefully a young guy like Heineman or Roy. Some good options. Maybe if Beck emerges at camp as the 3c, Monahan plays with Cole and Nick... Would be nice to get Monahan, Dvo, and Anderson producing and their trade values up. I'm liking what we're doing with our 1sts and 2nds.

You guys might as well just trade Suzuki because you are all unwilling to give him the best odds of proving he is a PPG Center.

Why pigeon-hole him to the level of production he has already achieved?

Roy -- eventually -- could be a good partner for Caufield and Suzuki. As could Slafkovsky, or some other winger, but, IMO none of the targets at wing are givens to help Suzuki and Caufield produce at a new level right now.

Why make those two forwards' production stagnate with experiments on the RW when Dach can help them progress right now and, in the process, progress, himself, and gain the confidence that is the most important thing, right now, for him to also reach a higher level of production?

I don't see any narratives that insist on playing Dach at C that aren't also -- indirectly -- baling out on Suzuki's continued development as a potential #1C.

I don't understand why fans aren't intent on supporting Suzuki more, a C who has been consistently improving over the last three years and, logically, with the right support, should be a 70+ point-producer this season, if not closer to producing as a PPG C?

People should address this situation when discussing Dach's continued development as Dach's route to maturity as a top-6 forward (even Center) does not happen in a vacuum.

I think the way to go is simply to use expected number of players = number of prospects times average probability of success of each player. So when there are a lot of legit prospects, you expect a few successes, even if you don't know which ones.

For the forwards (feel free to replace the numbers with what you seen more appropriate):

Heineken: 0.20
Roy: 0.33
Farrell: 0.10
RHP: 0.20
Kidney: 0.05
Mesar: 0.05
Beck: 0.20
Ylonen: 0.20
All others combined: 0.17

Where the numbers are the probability of a player becoming an effective middle six forward. So given that, we should expect 1 or 2 effective NHL middle six forwards, regardless that we don't know whom it will be.

What happens if you assign the numbers?

I'm not sure how he will eventually turn out, but Heineken is expected to be a very popular contributor in the room.

 

[Scriptor]

I think we’ll see some moves from us trading D for forwards. We’ve actually got a logjam of blueliners coming up.

As for Dach, I think 20 goals is a nice target for him this year. Anything below that I think he’ll see as a disappointment. I’m hopeful for 60+ points but that’s going to depend a lot on how he’s used. As I said, if we’re going to use him as a center, I’d start him with CC to begin the year. Get his confidence going. Give Slaf some time with Nick. We shouldn’t be worrying about the standings, it’s entirely about development.

I'd argue that your approach is about development, but that it throws Suzuki under the bus, all for Dach's benefit in the short term.

I'm not sure this is a healthy or correct approach, even if I also have a lotto enthusiasm for Dach's potential at C -- that's always been the case for big-bodied Cs in our search for size and skill down the middle. I'd argue that this had more of an attraction than the local factor in the desire to acquire Dubois.

 

[Scriptor]

I agree that I want to see Dach continue to develop at C, and also that I'd like to see him with Dach. I also agree with Slaf and Newhook in the top six on the wings, and not Anderson with Suzuki and Caufield.

Only thing I'll say is, I see RHP and anderson as an excellent duo of wingers, especially only on the 3rd line. But I'd rather they have a good C. So I'd use Monahan between them on the 3rd line. Who then plays with Suzuki and Caufield? I'd hope someone can emerge out of camp like Heineman or Roy. I also think it's possible when Dvo comes back he could produce next to Cole and nick, and thus get his trade value up.

Maybe Dach does get Cole eventually, and then RHP and Anderson play with Suzuki again. That leaves Monahan with 2 of Slaf, Newhook, and hopefully a young guy like Heineman or Roy. Some good options. Maybe if Beck emerges at camp as the 3c, Monahan plays with Cole and Nick... Would be nice to get Monahan, Dvo, and Anderson producing and their trade values up. I'm liking what we're doing with our 1sts and 2nds.

This just re-emphasizes the fact that we are currently a top-6 winger away from finding an equilibrium the line-up. Unfortunately, we shouldn't bale on the continued development Caufield AND Suzuki by trying to split the offense over three lines.

Stack the Suzuki line with the best RW candidate we have, even if that happens to be Dach.

Support the three youngsters with a solid 2nd line, of which there are plenty of veterans (Monahan and Anderson), and/or youngsters with skill an potential (Slafkovsky and Newhook) from which to choose from to create this 2nd offensive line.

It makes more sense to pencil in a possible NHL spot right off the bat, after a good camp, for either Roy or Heineman, on a 3rd line.

Early on, Newhook will likely get the opportunity to play on a 2nd line, as professed by Hughes and MSL.

That would lead to a line of Slafkovsky-Monahan-Newhook, or Newhook-Monahan-Anderson.

If Hughes/MSL aren't bent on playing Newhook in the top-6, to start, but willing to play him at C, on a 3rd line with quality wingers instead, this allows for proper development (playing to their strengths) of all the youngsters, all while also providing a balanced offense:

Caufield - Suzuki - Dach (1st line minutes for most skilled youngsters with proven chemistry)
Slafkovsky - Monahan - Anderson (Veteran, physical support with skill for Slafkovsky)
RHP - Newhook - Heineman/Roy (Offensive, two-way kid line facing lesser competition)
Armia - Dvorak - Gallagher (veteran forechecking line for puck-possession in O-Zone)

 

[Scriptor]

I think Dach will become the Habs no. 1 center in two years. If he can get some quality wingers he develops chemistry with, he can be a 200 ft, big, physical 80+ center that plays against the other teams top lines and won’t get pushed around.

I agree that Dach has the potential to become a top-line C, but I'm not sure that happens this early in his careers it often takes a little longer for bigger forwards to reach their full potential.

I'm happy with continued, consistent progress for Dach over the next couple of years, before a true breakout season at C in the 3rd or 4th year as a 25 or 26 yr-old.

I'd rather bet on Dach reaching 50 to 60 points this season, playing mostly on the RW with Suzuki and Caufield (until the trade deadline, barring injury) and resuming a role at C once Monahan is gone. In the meantime, we could legitimately see both Caufield and Suzuki have their breakout seasons.

For starters, how is this bad for Dach?

Beyond that, why would we not want to see both Caufield and Suzuki have breakout seasons?

 

[26Mats]

You guys might as well just trade Suzuki because you are all unwilling to give him the best odds of proving he is a PPG Center.

Why pigeon-hole him to the level of production he has already achieved?

Roy -- eventually -- could be a good partner for Caufield and Suzuki. As could Slafkovsky, or some other winger, but, IMO none of the targets at wing are givens to help Suzuki and Caufield produce at a new level right now.

Why make those two forwards' production stagnate with experiments on the RW when Dach can help them progress right now and, in the process, progress, himself, and gain the confidence that is the most important thing, right now, for him to also reach a higher level of production?

I don't see any narratives that insist on playing Dach at C that aren't also -- indirectly -- baling out on Suzuki's continued development as a potential #1C.

I don't understand why fans aren't intent on supporting Suzuki more, a C who has been consistently improving over the last three years and, logically, with the right support, should be a 70+ point-producer this season, if not closer to producing as a PPG C?

People should address this situation when discussing Dach's continued development as Dach's route to maturity as a top-6 forward (even Center) does not happen in a vacuum.


I'm not sure how he will eventually turn out, but Heineken is expected to be a very popular contributor in the room.

For me, the dream scenario is both Dach and Suzuki succeed, and neither limits the other, a la Crosby and Malkin.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You guys might as well just trade Suzuki because you are all unwilling to give him the best odds of proving he is a PPG Center.

Why pigeon-hole him to the level of production he has already achieved?

Roy -- eventually -- could be a good partner for Caufield and Suzuki. As could Slafkovsky, or some other winger, but, IMO none of the targets at wing are givens to help Suzuki and Caufield produce at a new level right now.

Why make those two forwards' production stagnate with experiments on the RW when Dach can help them progress right now and, in the process, progress, himself, and gain the confidence that is the most important thing, right now, for him to also reach a higher level of production?

I don't see any narratives that insist on playing Dach at C that aren't also -- indirectly -- baling out on Suzuki's continued development as a potential #1C.

I don't understand why fans aren't intent on supporting Suzuki more, a C who has been consistently improving over the last three years and, logically, with the right support, should be a 70+ point-producer this season, if not closer to producing as a PPG C?

People should address this situation when discussing Dach's continued development as Dach's route to maturity as a top-6 forward (even Center) does not happen in a vacuum.


I'm not sure how he will eventually turn out, but Heineken is expected to be a very popular contributor in the room.

It’s about development. CC can be split between them. Ditto for Slaf.

I don’t really care about Suzuki getting to 80 points if it means we stunt Dach. If Suzuki is the real number one people think he is, he should be able to do it regardless.

We’re not going to win the cup this year and I doubt we make the playoffs. It’s all about development.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I agree that Dach has the potential to become a top-line C, but I'm not sure that happens this early in his careers it often takes a little longer for bigger forwards to reach their full potential.

I'm happy with continued, consistent progress for Dach over the next couple of years, before a true breakout season at C in the 3rd or 4th year as a 25 or 26 yr-old.

I'd rather bet on Dach reaching 50 to 60 points this season, playing mostly on the RW with Suzuki and Caufield (until the trade deadline, barring injury) and resuming a role at C once Monahan is gone. In the meantime, we could legitimately see both Caufield and Suzuki have their breakout seasons.

For starters, how is this bad for Dach?

Beyond that, why would we not want to see both Caufield and Suzuki have breakout seasons?

I think having Dach on the 2nd line would only go to enhance his learning curve and gain more confidence at center. With only he and Suzuki at the long term top 2 centres on the team, I don’t see why you’d play him on the wing.

Give him a scoring winger and a playmaker/chaos agent and let him develop at C. If he’s a long term solution at center why wait. Let him grow and learn so he’s up to the task when Habs are ready to start competing next year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'd argue that your approach is about development, but that it throws Suzuki under the bus, all for Dach's benefit in the short term.

Our problem is that we be only got so many good wingers. There’s got to be a way of sharing CC between them.

I just think Suzuki is more established than Dach. Dach needs the confidence and more development. Suzuki is now a vet. He should be able to carry a line. Spread things out a little.

I'm not sure this is a healthy or correct approach, even if I also have a lotto enthusiasm for Dach's potential at C -- that's always been the case for big-bodied Cs in our search for size and skill down the middle. I'd argue that this had more of an attraction than the local factor in the desire to acquire Dubois.

Another reason to try Dach with CC early. If it doesn’t work, then maybe we decide that he’s a winger. But we have to give it a real shot. Give him the tolls and see if he can swim. If he can, then maybe after 20 games we see how he does without CC…

I don’t think it makes sens. To weld CC to Suzuki when we’ve got another guy we’re trying to develop.

 

[Scriptor]

For me, the dream scenario is both Dach and Suzuki succeed, and neither limits the other, a la Crosby and Malkin.

It doesn't sound like it, though, from all the catering to Dach's progress at C at the expense of Suzuki continuing to progress beyond his current production level.

It's notably giving Suzuki RHP and Anderson that he will produce more than 66 points this upcoming season.

The only winger that has the projectable potential of helping Caufield-Suzuki produce at a high level is Monahan, if we don't just hand over Caufield to Dach. Unfortunately, for me, I would like Monahan to play with Dach if Dach plays at C, so it's another conundrum.

Again, ideally, we still lack a genuine 2nd line winger to complete the Suzuki-Caufield duo if Dach plays at C this season.

Many of our younger wingers are still developing and playing them with Suzuki, or Dach, as their Cs, won't necessarily help either Suzuki or Dach from reaching a higher level of production.

We need to stop projecting a player's eventual potential to today's production when we pencil in different lineups.

Ideally, we'd have:

Caufield - Suzuki - Other genuine top-6 winger to help Caufield and Suzuki reach a different level. Someone like a Keller, but weldon't have that player in the system.

At the same time, for this season at C, to further his development, Dach would be flanked by Monahan on the left wing and Anderson on the right wing.

With another year of experience behind the belt, and Monahan gone via the trade route, Dach could get a younger winger than Monahan, like Newhook, on the left wing.

RHP could get a partner like Heineman, with similar tools to Anderson, to play with.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

They may not have long term futures with the Habs but they will be NHLers. If they aren't on the Habs they will likely have been used as trade chips to add missing pieces.

Yeah, no.

If they are 4th liners it proves my point. They aren’t guaranteed to be anything at this point.

If these guys aren't good enough to have a long-term future in Montreal, they won't be worth a single thing on the trade market either.