Kingston Frontenacs 2023-24 Season Thread (Part 2)

[OMG67]

Are we still on for the 100$ bet? Gens finish ahead of 67S.

Let’s make it more interesting. Let’s do $100 that the 67’s win the division. I think that is more fair…

 

[ScoutLife4]

Let’s make it more interesting. Let’s do $100 that the 67’s win the division. I think that is more fair…

I agree to that!

Also need to consider how weak the East is and how there is no clear cut dominant force this season.
There is 5 teams right now with minor changes could turn out to be the Peterborough from last season in my opinion. Kingston has the draft cupboard to take a run this season.
I would agree that it may not be the strongest OA group but if you remove them and possibly Ludwinski + still not having reliable goaltending and there is a lot of missing pieces for next season.

If i were GM this is what i would be doing:
Acquire Dubois from Peterborough to upgrade Poole.
Improve Goaltending (Maybe Dono from Ottawa)
Find a way to Keep Vann Williamson in the Line-up. (I'd like to see him over Uens)
Keep Callens out of the lineup. (Trade / Scratch / whatever it takes

Basically my whole list was checked off minus the goaltending improvement.
Although i'm disappointed they did not address this issue i'm confident the team is better suited for a playoff run then they were a couple weeks ago.

 

[frontsfan67]

Looking at the remaining fronts games I believe they will go and win the next 22/31 games. Will be interesting to see how accurate this is looking back. Fairly confident in them though.

Factored in games they’ll likely lose and likely win. Poor Pete’s have to play us a bunch of times

 

[leafs4life94]

Nice little tribute to Callens - even though it's a little annoying they never posted anything about him being released.

I'm still of the mind that the Brantford approach of moving Ludwinski for assets next year would have been the way to go - but this small "tweak and run with what we've got" was second. I fully expect our first round match-up to be a division rival in the 4-5 slot, whether that's Ottawa, Oshawa or Brantford.

Hopefully the playoff experience ends up being valuable and they set themselves up to be big-time buyers next year. I'll be curious if they shoot for the moon with an import or make an arrangement with an NHL team to bring someone over like they did with Merilainen (not a goalie though).

Looking at the remaining fronts games I believe they will go and win the next 22/31 games. Will be interesting to see how accurate this is looking back. Fairly confident in them though.

Factored in games they’ll likely lose and likely win. Poor Pete’s have to play us a bunch of times

I think the 4 games over the next month against Oshawa are going to give us a really good idea about where we stand.

I hope they give Salajko a chance to play against the Peterboroughs and the Niagaras on the schedule - they need to make sure Vaccari is rested and ready to go for the playoffs.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Nice little tribute to Callens - even though it's a little annoying they never posted anything about him being released.

I'm still of the mind that the Brantford approach of moving Ludwinski for assets next year would have been the way to go - but this small "tweak and run with what we've got" was second. I fully expect our first round match-up to be a division rival in the 4-5 slot, whether that's Ottawa, Oshawa or Brantford.

Hopefully the playoff experience ends up being valuable and they set themselves up to be big-time buyers next year. I'll be curious if they shoot for the moon with an import or make an arrangement with an NHL team to bring someone over like they did with Merilainen (not a goalie though).


I think the 4 games over the next month against Oshawa are going to give us a really good idea about where we stand.

I hope they give Salajko a chance to play against the Peterboroughs and the Niagaras on the schedule - they need to make sure Vaccari is rested and ready to go for the playoffs.

So you think they don’t win the division then? I honestly think it might be a four team race down the stretch. I’m not sure Brantford sold off enough to fade away. And Oshawa got stronger.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Meh. First round is pretty much a waste of time. The 4-5 series is usually pretty good but the top 3 seeds typically always make it out of round one. 7-8 seeds rarely win first round. It happens but it is more of a rare exception.

The playoffs start in round 2. So, whoever snags the #1 and #2 seeds should go to round 2 with little concern. Seed #3 this year will also likely make it to round 2 with little concern. The NB/SUD teams both seem really solid.

So, from my perspective, your point regarding the playoffs really only matters in Round #1 if the Fronts are in the 4-5 seed. Maybe it matters in Round 2 but I think we need to see more out of the teams in the East division for round 2 discussions to be more relevant. If I had to put $$$ down now, I would think it will be a Northern Conference Final. If MacKenzie is healthy and plays like he can, he could steal a series but the 67’s are sorta small. I think they will struggle a bit in round #2.

From a 67’s perspective, I was reasonably certain the moves they made were what they would do. I thought they would bring in a replacement Import and a depth player with some jam. It doesn’t look like they did that. I feel they fell short again from a playoff team perspective.

I agree that is normally the case, but this year we have 7 teams that still are in the hunt. Usually post-deadline, there is a clear line, often around the top 5, where the bottom 3 have sold off hard. That isn’t the case in the East so I think you will have those longer first round series, where you might see attrition come into play. Even at the 2-7, which could be Ottawa-Oshawa for example.

An earlier point I wanted to make, I think everyone on here realizes Ottawa has a good team. And will be better with the trades. I’m just not sure we all feel they are a tier above the Fronts as you seem to feel (and have been quite vocal about on the Fronts board).

As stated in my other post, I could even see a four headed race for the division, depending on how Brantford reacts to the move to sell, and how the new additions go for the rest.

 

[leafs4life94]

So you think they don’t win the division then? I honestly think it might be a four team race down the stretch. I’m not sure Brantford sold off enough to fade away. And Oshawa got stronger.

Honestly it's more that I just went with the percentages, I don't think one team separated themselves apart in the division so I figure 25% they win, 75% chance they don't.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Honestly it's more that I just went with the percentages, I don't think one team separated themselves apart in the division so I figure 25% they win, 75% chance they don't.

Makes sense. I agree.

 

[frontsfan67]

Little bit of a take here but could see Oshawa with all their moves finish first in the east division. I think it’ll be kingston or Ottawa but could see Oshawa. Gotta remember for a good chunk of the year they didn’t have Ritchie

Oshawa key additions- punnett, sandhu
Key losses: N/A

Ottawa key additions- Mayer, kressler, maillet
Key losses: Donoso, Lawrence

Kingston key additions- Schmidt, Dubois
Key losses N/A

^above is since the last week before the Christmas break the moves that have been made between the 3 teams here

In my opinion kingston has the best forward depth, Oshawa as a whole has the best defence, and Ottawa has the strongest starter. No team is leaps and bounds better than the other. So it’s silly to assume Ottawa, kingston or Oshawa are locking up first place in the east division. Will be tight between all 3 teams I’m sure.

Honestly it's more that I just went with the percentages, I don't think one team separated themselves apart in the division so I figure 25% they win, 75% chance they don't.

Yes will be close absolutely anyone suggesting otherwise is showing their bias.

 

[OMG67]

I agree that is normally the case, but this year we have 7 teams that still are in the hunt. Usually post-deadline, there is a clear line, often around the top 5, where the bottom 3 have sold off hard. That isn’t the case in the East so I think you will have those longer first round series, where you might see attrition come into play. Even at the 2-7, which could be Ottawa-Oshawa for example.

An earlier point I wanted to make, I think everyone on here realizes Ottawa has a good team. And will be better with the trades. I’m just not sure we all feel they are a tier above the Fronts as you seem to feel (and have been quite vocal about on the Fronts board).

As stated in my other post, I could even see a four headed race for the division, depending on how Brantford reacts to the move to sell, and how the new additions go for the rest.

Apologies for the long winded post below but it takes some words to explain where I am coming from. Easier to do it this way than in five separate “Yeah, but what about…” Posts.


From my perspective, Kingston caught Ottawa on a three game stretch over the holiday break where they were hobbled. In all honesty, we were just about getting by with the roster we had the first half and even with that deficient roster, we still managed to win close games Because of solid goal suppression.

I’ve always said there are eight key positions that need to be filled competently. They don’t need to be elite in any way, but they do need to be filled by players capable of handling those positions. You need three centres, four D-Men and a starting goalie. Again, they don’t need to be great, just competent. Ottawa was running with One Centre, Three D-Men (two of them 17 years old), and the goalie. They did acquire Lawrence on the cheap early on but he really is a winger and a depth winger at that! the rest are what you consider depth pieces and your top 6 wingers. You do need some solid wingers but wingers aren’t key positions.

So, when Ottawa acquired the two pretty good centres and the top pairing D-Man this week, that completed the top 8 positions. What Ottawa did have is significant winger depth with talent. Guys with a varying skill set that can score. The top 5 wingers returned from last year accounted for 110 goals. The centres counted for 19. Our depth came from the wings. Now that we have the centres, we add all the goals that they will account for PLUS the wingers will have a centre so they can return to form. That is the point that was lost on the outsiders looking in.

Going into the Christmas break, Ottawa was 6 games above .500 with a deficient group. Kingston was 4 games above after the coaching change. I think those teams with no injuries were relatively close. Same with Oshawa and Brantford. When Ottawa made the three pretty big adds in the key positions and the other teams made one add and Brantford sold some pieces, I do feel the team that made the bigger additions combined with their elite starting goalie returning soon created a separation.

If Ottawa had only added Dubois, we’d be screwed. Royally. And I am not exaggerating. I would have agreed fully with the comments on here regarding Ottawa’s chances. However, I knew they would at minimum add the two centres and D-Man. It was more a matter of whether they were going to also add an impact Import. It did look like they were going to for a while yesterday. Looks like that deal fell through. Regardless, they did fill the remaining three key positions.

So, all that said, I do feel Ottawa is in the drivers seat. If they do not win the division, they will have no one to blame but themselves (barring significant injury). Some of that will depend on how much longer MacKenzie is out.

Playoffs? Errrr. I don’t know. They have a strong mix of players but not really heavy bodies. If they win the division and capture the #2 seed, I think they will be fine. Second round? 50-50 Maybe? Not sure. We will have to wait and see.

From a Kingston perspective, I don‘t feel you addressed your goal suppression in a meaningful way. The adds that were made earlier helped to reduce the goals against but even against a hobbled Ottawa team with one competent centre, you gave up 10 goals over three games. The other three games in that six game stretch, we scored 6 (Missy and NBx2).

If I were to ignore all the games through mid-Nov and only include games after the coaching change and Chromiac addition etc, Kingston will have surrendered 4+ goals in 11 games. If I take away the last six games for Ottawa and run through the first game of the season, Ottawa had 10 games with 4+ goals surredered. Ottawa’s stretch in that sample size was 30 games. Kingston’s stretch in that sample size was only 18. You can see from my perspective that even after the coaching change and the addition of Schmidt and Chromiac, Kingston still gives up too many goals.

Kingston has five key experienced players at 19 or 20 years old (Ludwinski, Dubois, Hemstrom, Schmidt and Holmes). Ottawa has seven (Kressler, Maillet, Gerrior, Stonehouse, MacKenzie, Mayer, and Mayich). Ottawa slants older in the key positions. For example, Kingston willbe strong next year with returning players. Ottawa? Ummmm, not so much. Ottawa graduate a lot of players.

This is why I don’t feel (post-deadline) Kingston and Ottawa are on the same tier. It would not be fair to place them on the same tier based on many of the metrics used to evaluate the leading indicators. If the expectation of Kingston fans is to win the division in light of the changes made at the deadline, I think it is unrealistic. I do agree that Kingston is right there with Oshawa and probably a half step ahead of Brantford. Brantford sold off Donovan and that will hurt them badly.

Again, apologies for the long post. This is my thought process on the topic. We will see how it all plays out.

 

[frontsfan67]

Apologies for the long winded post below but it takes some words to explain where I am coming from. Easier to do it this way than in five separate “Yeah, but what about…” Posts.


From my perspective, Kingston caught Ottawa on a three game stretch over the holiday break where they were hobbled. In all honesty, we were just about getting by with the roster we had the first half and even with that deficient roster, we still managed to win close games Because of solid goal suppression.

I’ve always said there are eight key positions that need to be filled competently. They don’t need to be elite in any way, but they do need to be filled by players capable of handling those positions. You need three centres, four D-Men and a starting goalie. Again, they don’t need to be great, just competent. Ottawa was running with One Centre, Three D-Men (two of them 17 years old), and the goalie. They did acquire Lawrence on the cheap early on but he really is a winger and a depth winger at that! the rest are what you consider depth pieces and your top 6 wingers. You do need some solid wingers but wingers aren’t key positions.

So, when Ottawa acquired the two pretty good centres and the top pairing D-Man this week, that completed the top 8 positions. What Ottawa did have is significant winger depth with talent. Guys with a varying skill set that can score. The top 5 wingers returned from last year accounted for 110 goals. The centres counted for 19. Our depth came from the wings. Now that we have the centres, we add all the goals that they will account for PLUS the wingers will have a centre so they can return to form. That is the point that was lost on the outsiders looking in.

Going into the Christmas break, Ottawa was 6 games above .500 with a deficient group. Kingston was 4 games above after the coaching change. I think those teams with no injuries were relatively close. Same with Oshawa and Brantford. When Ottawa made the three pretty big adds in the key positions and the other teams made one add and Brantford sold some pieces, I do feel the team that made the bigger additions combined with their elite starting goalie returning soon created a separation.

If Ottawa had only added Dubois, we’d be screwed. Royally. And I am not exaggerating. I would have agreed fully with the comments on here regarding Ottawa’s chances. However, I knew they would at minimum add the two centres and D-Man. It was more a matter of whether they were going to also add an impact Import. It did look like they were going to for a while yesterday. Looks like that deal fell through. Regardless, they did fill the remaining three key positions.

So, all that said, I do feel Ottawa is in the drivers seat. If they do not win the division, they will have no one to blame but themselves (barring significant injury). Some of that will depend on how much longer MacKenzie is out.

Playoffs? Errrr. I don’t know. They have a strong mix of players but not really heavy bodies. If they win the division and capture the #2 seed, I think they will be fine. Second round? 50-50 Maybe? Not sure. We will have to wait and see.

From a Kingston perspective, I don‘t feel you addressed your goal suppression in a meaningful way. The adds that were made earlier helped to reduce the goals against but even against a hobbled Ottawa team with one competent centre, you gave up 10 goals over three games. The other three games in that six game stretch, we scored 6 (Missy and NBx2).

If I were to ignore all the games through mid-Nov and only include games after the coaching change and Chromiac addition etc, Kingston will have surrendered 4+ goals in 11 games. If I take away the last six games for Ottawa and run through the first game of the season, Ottawa had 10 games with 4+ goals surredered. Ottawa’s stretch in that sample size was 30 games. Kingston’s stretch in that sample size was only 18. You can see from my perspective that even after the coaching change and the addition of Schmidt and Chromiac, Kingston still gives up too many goals.

Kingston has five key experienced players at 19 or 20 years old (Ludwinski, Dubois, Hemstrom, Schmidt and Holmes). Ottawa has seven (Kressler, Maillet, Gerrior, Stonehouse, MacKenzie, Mayer, and Mayich). Ottawa slants older in the key positions. For example, Kingston willbe strong next year with returning players. Ottawa? Ummmm, not so much. Ottawa graduate a lot of players.

This is why I don’t feel (post-deadline) Kingston and Ottawa are on the same tier. It would not be fair to place them on the same tier based on many of the metrics used to evaluate the leading indicators. If the expectation of Kingston fans is to win the division in light of the changes made at the deadline, I think it is unrealistic. I do agree that Kingston is right there with Oshawa and probably a half step ahead of Brantford. Brantford sold off Donovan and that will hurt them badly.

Again, apologies for the long post. This is my thought process on the topic. We will see how it all plays out.

Omg, the fronts have went though coaching changes, injuries and lots of trades this year. You can’t say kingston just caught Ottawa in a bad stretch. Kingston has struggled at certain points of the year as well.

ottawas only win against kingston is an overtime win in which kingston outshot Ottawa for the game (donoso 34 shots, 32 saves)

The season series goal differential is +13 in favour of kingston in 6 games. Kingston has averaged 5 goals against the 67’s in 6 games.

Are you sure mckenzie is really that much better than donoso? He’s the reason you aren’t 0-6 against kingston this year. Even if kingston lets in more goals than they should sometimes- they still are 5-0-1 against Ottawa with a +13 goal differential

Age 19+ key pieces is a hand picked stat. Kingstons forward depth and young guys are way better overall.

 

[OMG67]

Omg, the fronts have went though coaching changes, injuries and lots of trades this year. You can’t say kingston just caught Ottawa in a bad stretch. Kingston has struggled at certain points of the year as well.

ottawas only win against kingston is an overtime win in which kingston outshot Ottawa for the game (donoso 34 shots, 32 saves)

The season series goal differential is +13 in favour of kingston in 6 games. Kingston has averaged 5 goals against the 67’s in 6 games.

Are you sure mckenzie is really that much better than donoso? He’s the reason you aren’t 0-6 against kingston this year. Even if kingston lets in more goals than they should sometimes- they still are 5-0-1 against Ottawa with a +13 goal differential

Age 19+ key pieces is a hand picked stat. Kingstons forward depth and young guys are way better overall.

MacKenzie
2022-23 -> 1.88 .928 over 30 games
2023-24 -> 2.79 .914 over 15 games

Donoso
2022-23 -> 2.72 .898 over 47 games
2023-24 -> 3.45 .891 over 25 games

If MacKenzie had managed to get in about 2 more games last year, he would have run away with the GAA and Save% lead. He came up just shy of the required minutes. He also didn’t play “backup games.” He mostly platooned equally with Donoso but Donoso got the extra games as the older player.

If MacKenzie were to be qualified for this year in minutes, he’d be 3rd in GAA and 1st in Save%. He’d only be 0.06 behind Simpson for first in GAA.

So, in answer to your question, yes. There is a significant difference. Just because Donoso is a good goalie, doesn’t mean there is not separation between the two. In goals against alone, they are about 3/4 of a goal per game difference this year and last year. That is almost the same separation between Vaccari and Salajko.

MacKenzie can win games all by himself and has done so many times, especially this year.

Regarding the rest, I laid out my argument and I don’t think rehashing it is meaningful. I will let it stand as is.

 

[frontsfan67]

MacKenzie
2022-23 -> 1.88 .928 over 30 games
2023-24 -> 2.79 .914 over 15 games

Donoso
2022-23 -> 2.72 .898 over 47 games
2023-24 -> 3.45 .891 over 25 games

If MacKenzie had managed to get in about 2 more games last year, he would have run away with the GAA and Save% lead. He came up just shy of the required minutes. He also didn’t play “backup games.” He mostly platooned equally with Donoso but Donoso got the extra games as the older player.

If MacKenzie were to be qualified for this year in minutes, he’d be 3rd in GAA and 1st in Save%. He’d only be 0.06 behind Simpson for first in GAA.

So, in answer to your question, yes. There is a significant difference. Just because Donoso is a good goalie, doesn’t mean there is not separation between the two. In goals against alone, they are about 3/4 of a goal per game difference this year and last year. That is almost the same separation between Vaccari and Salajko.

MacKenzie can win games all by himself and has done so many times, especially this year.

Regarding the rest, I laid out my argument and I don’t think rehashing it is meaningful. I will let it stand as is.

With goalies sometimes the more games you play your numbers go down. If you don’t play a lot of games, a lot of times they’re inflated.

This is why you have to hit a certain amount of games to qualify for goalie of the year for example.

Also if you’re on a better team or one that’s strong defensively often times numbers get inflated too. Look at some nhl goalies statistics when on Colorado- pavel francouz, alex georgiev, Philip grubauer and on the kings this year cam talbot

 

[OMG67]

With goalies sometimes the more games you play your numbers go down. If you don’t play a lot of games, a lot of times they’re inflated.

This is why you have to hit a certain amount of games to qualify for goalie of the year for example.

Also if you’re on a better team or one that’s strong defensively often times numbers get inflated too. Look at some nhl goalies statistics when on Colorado- pavel francouz, alex georgiev, Philip grubauer and on the kings this year cam talbot

I’m comparing stats of goalies on the same team playing similar number of minutes…. If you look at last year’s 67’s squad vs this years, you can see MacKenzie with higher GAA and lower Save% but those weaker numbers still compare against the TOP goalies in the league with far more complete teams in front of them than what Ottawa had in the first half.

I’m laying it down. If you don’t want to pick it up, that’s ok. I haven’t heard a valid counter argument that suggests that Kingston is a better team.

Ludwinski is the best player. Kingston is the bigger team but much slower. But each team now has 7 guys with 10+ goals on the season. That -14 goal differential is glaring Though.

 

[Donnie740]

In my opinion kingston has the best forward depth, Oshawa as a whole has the best defence, and Ottawa has the strongest starter. No team is leaps and bounds better than the other. So it’s silly to assume Ottawa, kingston or Oshawa are locking up first place in the east division.

The defensive corp has been the weakest link for Oshawa this year.

Part of that stems from overuse thanks to the asinine insistence of using only five defensemen because the brain trust has ZERO trust in McDonnell and Rodriguez to play anything beyond a few shifts each game.

Punnett should be an upgrade from what Thomas Stewart was, but I’m not overly impressed by the Sandhu acquisition.

Maybe with six defensemen they can finally stick with three consistent pairings instead of this constant churning. It’s ridiculous how much line juggling Laxdal insists on doing with the defence AND the forwards every game.

I’d agree that Kingston and Oshawa are very evenly matched and only slightly behind Ottawa. But all three are in a second tier behind Sudbury, North Bay and Mississauga.

 

[frontsfan67]

The defensive corp has been the weakest link for Oshawa this year.

Part of that stems from overuse thanks to the asinine insistence of using only five defensemen because the brain trust has ZERO trust in McDonnell and Rodriguez to play anything beyond a few shifts each game.

Punnett should be an upgrade from what Thomas Stewart was, but I’m not overly impressed by the Sandhu acquisition.

Maybe with six defensemen they can finally stick with three consistent pairings instead of this constant churning. It’s ridiculous how much line juggling Laxdal insists on doing with the defence AND the forwards every game.

I’d agree that Kingston and Oshawa are very evenly matched and only slightly behind Ottawa. But all three are in a second tier behind Sudbury, North Bay and Mississauga.

You guys just picked up the best OA D man, will be a huge upgrade over Stewart, and sandhu is pretty steady. You’ll definitely be able to play all 6 guys.

Caputi was like that with the lines it was unreal- no guys would ever get any chemistry going because he would shift the third liner to the first line and then put him down to the 4th line the game after. Mann has thankfully kept the top line together and tweaked the rest here and there.

 

[beastintheeast]

What do you mean by this? The Petes were by far the biggest sellers this deadline!

But they also picked up players not just draft picks. There fore, they are going to be an interesting team. They should make the playoffs rather than just sell for picks they might not have.

 

[HockeyPops]

Petes will have a tough time making the playoffs

 

[beastintheeast]

Meh. First round is pretty much a waste of time. The 4-5 series is usually pretty good but the top 3 seeds typically always make it out of round one. 7-8 seeds rarely win first round. It happens but it is more of a rare exception.

The playoffs start in round 2. So, whoever snags the #1 and #2 seeds should go to round 2 with little concern. Seed #3 this year will also likely make it to round 2 with little concern. The NB/SUD teams both seem really solid.

So, from my perspective, your point regarding the playoffs really only matters in Round #1 if the Fronts are in the 4-5 seed. Maybe it matters in Round 2 but I think we need to see more out of the teams in the East division for round 2 discussions to be more relevant. If I had to put $$$ down now, I would think it will be a Northern Conference Final. If MacKenzie is healthy and plays like he can, he could steal a series but the 67’s are sorta small. I think they will struggle a bit in round #2.

From a 67’s perspective, I was reasonably certain the moves they made were what they would do. I thought they would bring in a replacement Import and a depth player with some jam. It doesn’t look like they did that. I feel they fell short again from a playoff team perspective.

LOL, this is the reason that we have the OHL. We never know what is going to happen.

There are a lot of ifs and, and buts in everyone's crystal ball.

Looking at my beer-filled bottle and the sand I see the following issues

Kingston

Is the defence strong enough and do they have their crap together
Can Salajko play enough games so that Vaccari does not get injured or too tired?

Ottawa

how much of a difference are the new acquisitions going to help, and can Pinelli, Mayer Gardner and Mallet get a little closer to 0 than their present minus in plus-minus?

Can Micehelone fill the void until a healthy Mackenzie comes back, and when Mack comes back, how good is he going to be?

Brantford

Can they maintain the discipline and get the goaltending and defence to keep them in the hunt for the top?

The more interesting question is who is not making the playoffs?

I thought maybe Niagara could sneak in, and they still possibly can, but I am not holding my breath.

Then you have the Gens, Petes and Colts. The question here is simply how much did the Petes lose and how much can the coaches and systems help them.

Barring catastrophic injuries to teams I predict

1st place a team from the central division
2nd place is a team from the east division that has either B, K, or O at the start of their name.

Now, after all this hard work, it is time to get back to my other primary past time. Enjoying cold beer and 85-degree winter weather.

 

[dirty12]

Brantford and Ottawa have better w%, so it will be a challenge for Kingston to be first in division.
But at some point people will have to acknowledge 25-30 minutes of Schmidt and key face-off wins by Dubois are significant improvements to team defence.

 

[leafs4life94]

Brantford and Ottawa have better w%, so it will be a challenge for Kingston to be first in division.
But at some point people will have to acknowledge 25-30 minutes of Schmidt and key face-off wins by Dubois are significant improvements to team defence.

I know taking out 30% of the year is a significant chunk, but if we take out the Caputi start (4-7), the Fronts' winning % is actually higher than both Brantford/Ottawa at 0.596.

As for the whole Ottawa vs Kingston discussion - I think it'll come down to whoever's weakness is better than the others. Kingston's defense is their weak point, Ottawa's offense is theirs.

Ottawa definitely addressed their problem in bigger way with Kressler/Maillet and Mayer as opposed to the Fronts with Schmidt/Dubois - but the question is now are they better offensively than Kingston is defensively? The only way to know is to play the games - and the one thing I am sure of is that whenever the Fronts play the 67s these boards will be quite active with a little bit of "atodaso" - one way or the other.

 

[OMG67]

Petes will have a tough time making the playoffs

Let me rephrase that for you….

”If the Petes make the playoffs, I will chew my left arm off live on the Internet.”

There you go. You are welcome!

 

[OMG67]

I know taking out 30% of the year is a significant chunk, but if we take out the Caputi start (4-7), the Fronts' winning % is actually higher than both Brantford/Ottawa at 0.596.

As for the whole Ottawa vs Kingston discussion - I think it'll come down to whoever's weakness is better than the others. Kingston's defense is their weak point, Ottawa's offense is theirs.

Ottawa definitely addressed their problem in bigger way with Kressler/Maillet and Mayer as opposed to the Fronts with Schmidt/Dubois - but the question is now are they better offensively than Kingston is defensively? The only way to know is to play the games - and the one thing I am sure of is that whenever the Fronts play the 67s these boards will be quite active with a little bit of "atodaso" - one way or the other.

Savvy!

The only issue I have is we keep circling back to the acquisition of Schmidt. We need to remember that he would not have been an acquisition if not for Budnick demanding out of Kingston. Budnick was a +9 when he was traded. He was succeeding while the rest of the team was not. I am not calling the Schmidt/Budnick deal a wash but as I pointed out earlier, from mid-November (a couple weeks prior to the Schmidt addition), the Fronts are still regularly giving up 4+ goals per game. They gave up 10 goals over 3 games to a hobbling 67’s squad over the christmas break that had no business scoring any goals at all!

I have not seen anything to suggest the Kingston goal suppression has improved in any measurable way. They did nothing at the deadline that would suggest goal suppression will be improved. Dubois is a good player but one player will not make enough of a difference Over the half season.

Throw out anything any other team has done and simply only look at Kingston. There seems to be a lot of hope and prayer that things will simply come together. They acquired Chromiak on Nov 1. They acquired Schmidt (for Budnick) on Dec 12. The coaching change came around the last week of October. That was when the main difference happened. That and Chromiak happened pretty much at the same time. Things turned around then.

I can see Kingston run at around that .575 clip but their poor goal suppression will likely hurt their ability to be competitive against the top teams. This is still a good team. No doubt. Can it win the division? Yes it can. Is it likely at this point? Probably not.

I do agree that the team is probably better built to be successful in the playoffs. They do have a lot of guy that can lean on you. I think that is a very valid point. But, regular season goal suppression is not good. It is well below average. Not enough was done at the deadline to address it.

 

[leafs4life94]

Savvy!

The only issue I have is we keep circling back to the acquisition of Schmidt. We need to remember that he would not have been an acquisition if not for Budnick demanding out of Kingston. Budnick was a +9 when he was traded. He was succeeding while the rest of the team was not. I am not calling the Schmidt/Budnick deal a wash but as I pointed out earlier, from mid-November (a couple weeks prior to the Schmidt addition), the Fronts are still regularly giving up 4+ goals per game. They gave up 10 goals over 3 games to a hobbling 67’s squad over the christmas break that had no business scoring any goals at all!

I have not seen anything to suggest the Kingston goal suppression has improved in any measurable way. They did nothing at the deadline that would suggest goal suppression will be improved. Dubois is a good player but one player will not make enough of a difference Over the half season.

Throw out anything any other team has done and simply only look at Kingston. There seems to be a lot of hope and prayer that things will simply come together. They acquired Chromiak on Nov 1. They acquired Schmidt (for Budnick) on Dec 12. The coaching change came around the last week of October. That was when the main difference happened. That and Chromiak happened pretty much at the same time. Things turned around then.

I can see Kingston run at around that .575 clip but their poor goal suppression will likely hurt their ability to be competitive against the top teams. This is still a good team. No doubt. Can it win the division? Yes it can. Is it likely at this point? Probably not.

I do agree that the team is probably better built to be successful in the playoffs. They do have a lot of guy that can lean on you. I think that is a very valid point. But, regular season goal suppression is not good. It is well below average. Not enough was done at the deadline to address it.

I would like to think that they would have been looking at an OA D man after Savard left - and it just so happened that they were able to accomodate Budnick at the same time while while making the deal for Schmidt who was a pure luxury item for Kitchener, as well as always having a Callens upgrade as part of the plan.

Honestly Chromiak hasn't really impressed me - for someone who at times had been projected as a top 2 round pick, he hasn't really stood out in a way (not necessarily bad for a D man) and taking away his 5 point game, he's only got 6 points in 20 games in Kingston.

I'd have to look back through clips of previous games to really see who's at fault - I remember one of the Pinelli goals in the NYD 6-3 game being an egregious turnover from Burns - but I feel like there's a trend with Kingston's goals against, that it's not as much a defensive system issue, but extremely poor turnovers leading to very high quality scoring chances.

At the end of the day, goals against are goals against no matter how they cross the line - but I would say it's easier to fix an issue with turnovers rather than a fundamentally flawed system.

If I'm bored later tonight before the Leafs/Fronts game I might dig through some highlights to see if my gut feeling is valid.

 

[OMG67]

I would like to think that they would have been looking at an OA D man after Savard left - and it just so happened that they were able to accomodate Budnick at the same time while while making the deal for Schmidt who was a pure luxury item for Kitchener, as well as always having a Callens upgrade as part of the plan.

Honestly Chromiak hasn't really impressed me - for someone who at times had been projected as a top 2 round pick, he hasn't really stood out in a way (not necessarily bad for a D man) and taking away his 5 point game, he's only got 6 points in 20 games in Kingston.

I'd have to look back through clips of previous games to really see who's at fault - I remember one of the Pinelli goals in the NYD 6-3 game being an egregious turnover from Burns - but I feel like there's a trend with Kingston's goals against, that it's not as much a defensive system issue, but extremely poor turnovers leading to very high quality scoring chances.

At the end of the day, goals against are goals against no matter how they cross the line - but I would say it's easier to fix an issue with turnovers rather than a fundamentally flawed system.

If I'm bored later tonight before the Leafs/Fronts game I might dig through some highlights to see if my gut feeling is valid.

The point I am making is there was an opportunity cost for Schmidt and that was Budnick. That is far different than adding Schmidt for draft picks without moving Budnick. You cannot suggest adding Schmidt was a game changer when the cost to do so was essentially Budnick. That is mor eof a wash than it is an addition. It would be like the Leafs trading for Connor MacDavid and not highlighting the fact they traded Mathews to get him….