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Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

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I think any team that goes for the "gold" (Marner) in the RFA market, is going to regret it due to the number of picks they would have to send to Toronto.

I think the strategy discussed above by @kovacro where you go after solid players a team can't afford and you give up a 2nd round pick is the correct approach for an offer sheet.
 
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kovacro said:
I'd toss Andreas Johnsson (TOR) into that group. If you offer sheet him close to $4 million per, it would be tough for the Leafs to match. Good solid hockey player and should carve out a role as a top 6 forward.

I would have no problem relinquishing a 2nd round pick for him.
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Im sure Kapanen was mentioned somewhere earlier, but I’d include him as well.
 
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kovacro said:
I'd toss Andreas Johnsson (TOR) into that group. If you offer sheet him close to $4 million per, it would be tough for the Leafs to match. Good solid hockey player and should carve out a role as a top 6 forward.

I would have no problem relinquishing a 2nd round pick for him.
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Yup, agree on Johnsson being a smart value that could be targeted. In reality, it’s doubtful that a bunch of offer sheets happen. We’ll be lucky if there is one across the whole league, nevermind it being the Kings.

What would be amusing is if someone offer sheets a Kings player. Not likely to happen, but if some team made offers on Kempe or Iafallo something like 4 years, $3.75M, NTC, would the Kings want to match that or are the returns worth it.

A second round pick for those guys would be garbage. But an inflated deal would be pretty bad as well.
 
KINGS17 said:
I think any team that goes for the "gold" (Marner) in the RFA market, is going to regret it due to the number of picks they would have to send to Toronto.

I think the strategy discussed above by @kovacro where you go after solid players a team can't afford and you give up a 2nd round pick is the correct approach for an offer sheet.
Click to expand...

correct approach to trying to get marner is acquire his rights via trade and then sign him
 
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DoktorJeep said:
Yup, agree on Johnsson being a smart value that could be targeted. In reality, it’s doubtful that a bunch of offer sheets happen. We’ll be lucky if there is one across the whole league, nevermind it being the Kings.

What would be amusing is if someone offer sheets a Kings player. Not likely to happen, but if some team made offers on Kempe or Iafallo something like 4 years, $3.75M, NTC, would the Kings want to match that or are the returns worth it.

A second round pick for those guys would be garbage. But an inflated deal would be pretty bad as well.
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Kings match those deals in a heartbeat.
 
DoktorJeep said:
Wow, I’d definitely pause at paying either of those guys more than $2.5m per, but probably less with the younger Kempe, on deals over 2 years.
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I think it all depends on where you slot those guys re: Kempe/Iafallo on your board of 12 forwards over the next so many years. I think if you are looking at them in top 6 roles, it's good value but, if you are envisioning them in the bottom 6, is it then worth it to pay them closer to $4 million?

That's why for me, a guy like Johnsson is a no brainer. I think it's great value for a guy who can be a legit top 6 player and is proving he can put the puck in the net (AHL and NHL level) already at this stage of his career. He's got speed and skill. I would take the risk on him, proven asset for a lottery ticket.

I know Kapanen was mentioned above, but I think you are looking at $5+ million per and that puts you in 1st round territory in terms of compensation. Don't think I would have the appetite to do that.
 
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kovacro said:
I think it all depends on where you slot those guys re: Kempe/Iafallo on your board of 12 forwards over the next so many years. I think if you are looking at them in top 6 roles, it's good value but, if you are envisioning them in the bottom 6, is it then worth it to pay them closer to $4 million?

That's why for me, a guy like Johnsson is a no brainer. I think it's great value for a guy who can be a legit top 6 player and is proving he can put the puck in the net (AHL and NHL level) already at this stage of his career. He's got speed and skill. I would take the risk on him, proven asset for a lottery ticket.

I know Kapanen was mentioned above, but I think you are looking at $5+ million per and that puts you in 1st round territory in terms of compensation. Don't think I would have the appetite to do that.
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For me I think of it as, could they be moved at 3.75M/yr if you had to. my answer is I think so
 
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DoktorJeep said:
Wow, I’d definitely pause at paying either of those guys more than $2.5m per, but probably less with the younger Kempe, on deals over 2 years.
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I wouldn't, not in a heartbeat, neither would the organization, tying them up for 4 years at less than 4 million is an absolute steal, go look at the comparables.
 
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kovacro said:
I think it all depends on where you slot those guys re: Kempe/Iafallo on your board of 12 forwards over the next so many years. I think if you are looking at them in top 6 roles, it's good value but, if you are envisioning them in the bottom 6, is it then worth it to pay them closer to $4 million?

That's why for me, a guy like Johnsson is a no brainer. I think it's great value for a guy who can be a legit top 6 player and is proving he can put the puck in the net (AHL and NHL level) already at this stage of his career. He's got speed and skill. I would take the risk on him, proven asset for a lottery ticket.

I know Kapanen was mentioned above, but I think you are looking at $5+ million per and that puts you in 1st round territory in terms of compensation. Don't think I would have the appetite to do that.
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There may still be time for Kempe to grow into a larger role, but in Iafallo's case he is a 25-year old player with 14 goals and 14 assists on a team where he was getting to play big minutes on the top line. You don't pay $4M a season for that kind of performance.

Unless Iafallo is a really late bloomer, he isn't going to significantly increase his production. Lewis makes $2M a season, I think that would be a very fair number for Iafallo on something like a 2 or 3 year deal.
 
For me, I wouldn't have anyone in my bottom 2 lines making close to $4 million. Fill those 6 spots with young kids who are hungry and a couple vets who will come in on shorter term deals that can provide some experience and leadership.
 
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GoldenBearHockey said:
I wouldn't, not in a heartbeat, neither would the organization, tying them up for 4 years at less than 4 million is an absolute steal, go look at the comparables.
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Here are my comparables from last year. Zero NT/MC handed out.

Last years 25yo rfa wings
Sven Baertschi VAN 3 $10,101,000 $3,367,000
Adam Lowry WPG 3 $8.75m $2.9m
Jimmy Vesey NYR 2 $4.6m $2.3m
Matt Nieto COL 2 $4m $2m

22 / 23 yo RFA C
Sam Reinhart BUF 2 $7.3m $3.7m
Robbi Fabri STL 1 $925k

Not sure what else applies from last year and didn’t bother going back, because it’s not like either Kempe or Iafallo is a top 10 rfa this year.
 
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DoktorJeep said:
Here are my comparables from last year. Zero NT/MC handed out.

Last years 25yo rfa wings
Sven Baertschi VAN 3 $10,101,000 $3,367,000
Adam Lowry WPG 3 $8.75m $2.9m
Jimmy Vesey NYR 2 $4.6m $2.3m
Matt Nieto COL 2 $4m $2m

22 / 23 yo RFA C
Sam Reinhart BUF 2 $7.3m $3.7m
Robbi Fabri STL 1 $925k

Not sure what else applies from last year and didn’t bother going back, because it’s not like either Kempe or Iafallo is a top 10 rfa this year.
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Curious as to how you see them as comparables? I don't know if you are right or wrong.....

But to me, both of them bring a lot more than anyone on that list, possible exception of Reinhart, and a decent argument for Lowry.
 
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GoldenBearHockey said:
Curious as to how you see them as comparables? I don't know if you are right or wrong.....

But to me, both of them bring a lot more than anyone on that list, possible exception of Reinhart, and a decent argument for Lowry.
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Yea, their agents have their work cut out for them.
 
GoldenBearHockey said:
Curious as to how you see them as comparables? I don't know if you are right or wrong.....

But to me, both of them bring a lot more than anyone on that list, possible exception of Reinhart, and a decent argument for Lowry.
Click to expand...

I went back and looked for a few more winger comparables for Iafallo by looking at 24-26 yo's.

Joel Armia MTL 1 $1,850,000
Thomas Wilson WAS 6 $31,000,000 $5,166,667
Anthony Mantha DET 2 $6,600,000 $3,300,000
Ryan Hartman NSH 1 $875,000

So, of course, Wilson is the outlier when it comes to salary, and he also is the only one who got some form of limited movement protection.

Looking at these examples, I think #1, both Iafallo and Kempe are looking at 2-3 year bridge deals, I don't see any reason why 4 years is even on the table.

And #2, when it comes to 2-3 year bridge deals for similar players, the pattern has been somewhere around $4M'ish for 2 years or $3M'ish for 3 years. So either way, you're not getting more than $8m or $9m out the deal at fair market value.

Another wrinkle is arbitration, and I'm not sure about either Iafallo or Kempe there.
 
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