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Kevyn Adams - New GM

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I can’t find his comments, but Friedman spoke with Jeremiah Crowe about the teams direction. Analytics heavy with a combination of live AND video scouting. It honestly sounds like the organization hasn’t been on the same page in years

I’m becoming optimistic again. Help me.

EDIT : found the tweet

 
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It’s not hard to be optimistic because the last guy was a clown show who never had any semblance of a plan.

they could come out and say their plan was to throw darts at names and I’d still think it had a decent chance of succeeding more than Botterill.

telling me they’re finally joining the 2010s in 2020 is even better
 
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BuffaloGooner said:
I can’t find his comments, but Friedman spoke with Jeremiah Crowe about the teams direction. Analytics heavy with a combination of live AND video scouting. It honestly sounds like the organization hasn’t been on the same page in years

I’m becoming optimistic again. Help me.

EDIT : found the tweet

Click to expand...


If we look at Botterill getting fired and the cleansing of management in a vacuum, they were both overdue. (not talking feeling's on the Pegula's, or money/pandemic)

The first promotions made show me Adams' words aren't just politico-speak. Analytics will be taken more seriously in this management.

I think, for now, optimism is the right feeling to have.

We'll see what part of this broken hockey structure they prioritize fixing first this off-season, because that'll say a lot (focus on re-building a prospect pool? focus on adding future picks? focus on the current team? I think most of us hope it's that last one).
 
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Ah the good ole optimism is seeping back in only for it to be crushed in a season and the complaining and comparison of how much of a better GM Botterill was than Adams will start.

I will be a spectator this time. I hope for the best but expect the worst outcome. When you stop caring and putting optimism in with the Sabres it becomes more liberating. You can actually objectively see things better from both sides.

Current Sabres Mood: It is what it is. I've already excepted the fact Eichel is going to want out very soon.
 
Gabrielor said:
I think, for now, optimism is the right feeling to have.
Click to expand...

Its ok to be optimistic since they are saying good things. But oh boy is there a ton of work to do to fix things. We have so many bad analytic guys on the roster that its hard for me to get excited even a little bit until i see some action
 
"And with the 8th overall pick in the 2020 NHL draft, the Buffalo Sabres select: Maryoh Lemieux."
 
truthbluth said:
There isn’t a single person on the planet serious about hockey analytics that doesn’t think the Sabres are better off without Risto. If the Sabres don’t come to that conclusion, they aren’t serious about analytics. It’s not melodrama, it’s logic.
Click to expand...


You're ignoring the bigger picture (roster building decisions*) and that's not how the numbers work (that simply trading Risto makes us better).

Risto plays roughly 18mins/game at 5v5 with a defensively skewed deployment (OZS% of 45% give or take). The numbers analyzing his play can only tell us how he is doing in that usage (poorly for the most part) not if we would be better without him. Could we do better? Obviously yes, but that hinges on who takes his minutes. Its pretty hard to assert we would be better by simply trading him without knowing who replaces him in that usage. "Replacement level dman" is not the answer in the real world. Can who we have in house at RHD do better? The answer to this is what matters.

Miller and Joker aren't viable options to take over those minutes. Miller because he would be crushed in that type of usage and Joker isn't ready for it yet (though he's the one we're hoping becomes that guy). Montour is a possibility but they have to decide what to do with him contractually. That could lead to anything from a long term extension to him getting traded. He's not exactly an analytics darling either. I'm real curious to see what they decide with him.


*From a roster building perspective, our management is going to have a lot of issues to address and decisions to make this offseason. They won't be able to address them all. They can use analytics to help prioritize where best to focus their efforts upgrading the team. The biggest issues we have at the moment are up front and in goal. Believe it or not, Risto isn't at the top of the issues list. Which tells you how much work our management has in front of them.

Management knows someone will need to play the "Risto role" minutes. They will also know we have no obvious upgrade in house. Do they want to get into trying to upgrade Risto this offseason? They might. But if they chose to wait on upgrading Risto I can understand why. They have a lot of other things to address. It doesn't mean they aren't committed to analytics.

By you making it such a simplistic focus on what our new management does with Risto. I think your missing the bigger picture with the role analytics can/will play and putting an unfair test to the new management team. That's without even getting into the cap/economic issues that could make trading Risto very difficult.
 
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joshjull said:
You're ignoring the bigger picture (roster building decisions*) and that's not how the numbers work (that simply trading Risto makes us better).

Risto plays roughly 18mins/game at 5v5 with a defensively skewed deployment (OZS% of 45% give or take). The numbers analyzing his play can only tell us how he is doing in that usage (poorly for the most part) not if we would be better without him. Could we do better? Obviously yes, but that hinges on who takes his minutes. Its pretty hard to assert we would be better by simply trading him without knowing who replaces him in that usage. "Replacement level dman" is not the answer in the real world. Can who we have in house at RHD do better? The answer to this is what matters.

Miller and Joker aren't viable options to take over those minutes. Miller because he would be crushed in that type of usage and Joker isn't ready for it yet (though he's the one we're hoping becomes that guy). Montour is a possibility but they have to decide what to do with him contractually. That could lead to anything from a long term extension to him getting traded. He's not exactly an analytics darling either. I'm real curious to see what they decide with him.


*From a roster building perspective, our management is going to have a lot of issues to address and decisions to make this offseason. They won't be able to address them all. They can use analytics to help prioritize where best to focus their efforts upgrading the team. The biggest issues we have at the moment are up front and in goal. Believe it or not, Risto isn't at the top of the issues list. Which tells you how much work our management has in front of them.

Management knows someone will need to play the "Risto role" minutes. They will also know we have no obvious upgrade in house. Do they want to get into trying to upgrade Risto this offseason? They might. But if they chose to wait on upgrading Risto I can understand why. They have a lot of other things to address. It doesn't mean they aren't committed to analytics.

By you making it such a simplistic focus on what our new management does with Risto. I think your missing the bigger picture with the role analytics can/will play and putting an unfair test to the new management team. That's without even getting into the cap/economic issues that could make trading Risto very difficult.
Click to expand...

Crazy concept for 2 players who had done this for ages before they got to Buffalo: play Risto & Dahlin on their off hands. They know how to pick pockets in their own end; they know how to use the center of the ice to break out.

Stop pounding square pegs into round holes. This is an anti-stats/common sense argument where looking back in history suggests the better path.

For some reason I can imagine that both Dahlin/Risto can manage a dump in on their backhand.

Playing on his off hand never bothered Ray Bourque.
 
When did Heather Engel become the Sabres correspondent for NHL.com?

Did they fire Jason LaBarbera? Jordan? i forget the exact name.
 
joshjull said:
You're ignoring the bigger picture (roster building decisions*) and that's not how the numbers work (that simply trading Risto makes us better).

Risto plays roughly 18mins/game at 5v5 with a defensively skewed deployment (OZS% of 45% give or take). The numbers analyzing his play can only tell us how he is doing in that usage (poorly for the most part) not if we would be better without him. Could we do better? Obviously yes, but that hinges on who takes his minutes. Its pretty hard to assert we would be better by simply trading him without knowing who replaces him in that usage. "Replacement level dman" is not the answer in the real world. Can who we have in house at RHD do better? The answer to this is what matters.

Miller and Joker aren't viable options to take over those minutes. Miller because he would be crushed in that type of usage and Joker isn't ready for it yet (though he's the one we're hoping becomes that guy). Montour is a possibility but they have to decide what to do with him contractually. That could lead to anything from a long term extension to him getting traded. He's not exactly an analytics darling either. I'm real curious to see what they decide with him.


*From a roster building perspective, our management is going to have a lot of issues to address and decisions to make this offseason. They won't be able to address them all. They can use analytics to help prioritize where best to focus their efforts upgrading the team. The biggest issues we have at the moment are up front and in goal. Believe it or not, Risto isn't at the top of the issues list. Which tells you how much work our management has in front of them.

Management knows someone will need to play the "Risto role" minutes. They will also know we have no obvious upgrade in house. Do they want to get into trying to upgrade Risto this offseason? They might. But if they chose to wait on upgrading Risto I can understand why. They have a lot of other things to address. It doesn't mean they aren't committed to analytics.

By you making it such a simplistic focus on what our new management does with Risto. I think your missing the bigger picture with the role analytics can/will play and putting an unfair test to the new management team. That's without even getting into the cap/economic issues that could make trading Risto very difficult.
Click to expand...
The domino effect of keeping Risto is just as complicated:
  • You have to trade/bench an RD or play someone on the off-side (Montour/Miller have also depreciated and Joki is still mostly potential)
  • You continue to lose 1/3rd of ES, often against key opposition, or have to slot another ill-suited RD in that role
  • You (most likely) sabotage any effort to upgrade the LD position on that pairing, while making it more likely assets get invested in v4 of the "fix Risto partner"
  • You gatekeep the (admittedly limited) chance of in-house upgrades from players like Borgen, even though the 19-20 right side was meh after Joki

Part of the organizational shift to analytics will be convincing Ralph that getting caved for 18 minutes is bad, regardless of what they actually do with Risto. We'll have to see whether that manifests as a replacement level trade, further minute reduction, moving another RD, or some other type of move.
 
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CrazyPsycho said:
Its ok to be optimistic since they are saying good things. But oh boy is there a ton of work to do to fix things. We have so many bad analytic guys on the roster that its hard for me to get excited even a little bit until i see some action
Click to expand...

It's taken some time to digest, because even in an interview where Terry was talking about giving me a million dollars cash, he'd find a way to come off as awkward, but Botterill being gone has me excited.

I also have faith in Krueger. He'll have more say on big decisions, and the players love him (Eichel, in particular).

With that in mind, and Adams' more scientific approach, its easier to believe that a good Reinhart deal will get done, that they'll handle other RFA/UFAs accordingly, and that they won't leave the 2C hole unattended with 11 NHL defensemen, like last year.

Jason Botterill is no longer in charge. I didn't even dream of that a few weeks ago.
 
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CrazyPsycho said:
Its ok to be optimistic since they are saying good things. But oh boy is there a ton of work to do to fix things. We have so many bad analytic guys on the roster that its hard for me to get excited even a little bit until i see some action
Click to expand...
It does make you wonder a bit about our analytics guy (Jason nightengale). He’s been here for a lot of these “bad analytics” player acquisitions. Did he just not have much of a voice? Let’s hope so, I guess.
 
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Tomorrow is supposedly when some of these people like Brackett and Futa shake loose. I’m not sure if that is 100% right with the current state of the season but I have read it from a few places online. I wonder if we will see some hiring in the next couple of weeks.
 
I doubt that Brackett would be given the free hand that it is said he wants. I think the changes already made in the scouting department make him a very unlikely hire by the Sabres. Too bad as he would help.
 
jc17 said:
As far as I know the only options are manually tracking (time consuming), data scraping (limited), and video tracking (don't know how advanced/accurate/useful it is now)

Not to keep beating a dead horse but idk why no one ever asks about this. Not expecting them to reveal all their secrets but none of the media even makes an attempt to get even basic info
Click to expand...

Similarly to Tsujimoto I'd be surprised if all teams doesn't subscribe to some of the data-providers available.

SHL has a contract with SportLogiq which is an AI based tracking tool. On Swedish television they have shown some of the data that is available, for the players they get an email after each game showing all their shifts, for the analysts, it's essentially everything from xG models, to zone entry, zone exit data, passing data, you name it.

I would guess all NHL teams also have this information.

If you listen to PDOcast Dimiti occasionally has a goaltender-analytics guy (don't remember the name) who has access to this data as well and he talks very highly about the amount of information they have compared to what is publicly available when it comes to shot location, shot speed etc.

For the NHL teams I don't think it's a lack of data available, but rather how integrated the Analytics is in the day-to-day decision making.

As for Sabres, Lance Lysowski recently talked to Ranting Ron, where he mentioned he knew Housley used analytics because he talked about changing a tactic based on how a specific team plays (although I wonder if that's more analyzing video, rather than number, just relaying what Lance said). Whereas he had never heard Krueger mention analytics.
 
SwedeChristoffer said:
<snip> For the NHL teams I don't think it's a lack of data available, but rather how integrated the Analytics is in the day-to-day decision making.

As for Sabres, Lance Lysowski recently talked to Ranting Ron, where he mentioned he knew Housley used analytics because he talked about changing a tactic based on how a specific team plays (although I wonder if that's more analyzing video, rather than number, just relaying what Lance said). Whereas he had never heard Krueger mention analytics.
Click to expand...
IIRC, Housley was going to match lines after the opening shift, but decided against it because it required too much thought and in-game decision-making.
 
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SwedeChristoffer said:
If you listen to PDOcast Dimiti occasionally has a goaltender-analytics guy (don't remember the name) who has access to this data as well and he talks very highly about the amount of information they have compared to what is publicly available when it comes to shot location, shot speed etc.
Click to expand...



Steve Valiquette's company Clearsight Analytics are the ones with the cutting edge goalie stats.
 
Sabre Dance said:
"Thanks, but we'll do it the hard way."

- Kim and Terry Pegula
Click to expand...
Tbf the hard way isn't that hard. Its just asking Ralph if he likes rick. Idk if Ralph wants to compete with another 1 syllable R name though
 
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