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Kevin Musto's 2023 NHL Draft Ranking

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Doug Prishpreed said:
Looks like the list of a man who really values high upside.
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There's nothing wrong with certainty and high floors, I value those guys too. You need depth/role players.

But I'm looking at who's going to be the best in 5+ years, not who's necessarily the best right now or even the best in a year or two.

So I tend to value upside, but there is a balance. There are times when floor wins out over ceiling.
 
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hawksrule said:
We’ll see in retrospect. I respect when people put in the effort and stick their necks out.
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People sometimes seem offended when opinions don’t line up. I welcome ass much feedback as humanly possible from people who log as many games as musto seems to.

Kevin Musto said:
There's nothing wrong with certainty and high floors, I value those guys too. You need depth/role players.

But I'm looking at who's going to be the best in 5+ years, not who's necessarily the best right now or even the best in a year or two.

So I tend to value upside, but there is a balance. There are times when floor wins out over ceiling.
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That makes sense - especially once I studied your list more. I wouldn’t be surprised if your list matches the actual draft more than most, there’s a lot of logic there.
 
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Patty Ice said:
Musto forgot to check out Russian prospects.
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Michkov, Gulyayev, Simashev, and But are on my board. (Chaly too if you count Russians playing abroad)

I don't feel as though I'm missing anyone notable.

But if you think I am, feel free to let me know.
 
Kevin Musto said:
Michkov, Gulyayev, Simashev, and But are on my board. (Chaly too if you count Russians playing abroad)

I don't feel as though I'm missing anyone notable.

But if you think I am, feel free to let me know.
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More in reference to their lower than consensus rankings. Like they were added for validity sake.
 
Doug Prishpreed said:
People sometimes seem offended when opinions don’t line up. I welcome ass much feedback as humanly possible from people who log as many games as musto seems to.


That makes sense - especially once I studied your list more. I wouldn’t be surprised if your list matches the actual draft more than most, there’s a lot of logic there.
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Who doesn't?
 
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Thanks for the list...I didn't make one so I can't criticize. I was surprised by milic in round 1. And not much Czech love at all.lol
 
Nice for going against "consensus".

Obviously disagree on some.

Michkov shouldn't be that low. Yeah there's flaws to him, but same with other high end guys.

I'm higher than others on Cristall too, though you really value him.

Leonard at 3 was quite surprising. I would take him high, but not that high.

Reinbacher is a bit high for me, He'll be good, but I just don't love his upside to be ranked that high. I prefer ASP.

Maybe the biggest thing I disagree with is Milic. He's good, but it'd be quite a risk to go with a goalie and a 20 year old goalie at that in the 1st round. I'd rather swing on Hrabal or Augustine.

Simashev I'm surprised you're quite low on. His rankings are all over the place, so he doesn't really have a consensus ranking, but it's still a pretty low ranking. With his size and defensive play, he's kind of a safe pick and yet has pretty high upside too. I think he for sure deserves a 1st round ranking.
 
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Props for the effort. Honestly lots of good stuff. Some stuff that’s trash too. But mostly good.

(Michkov at 9 is crazy, Cristall doesn’t have high compete and won’t sniff the top 10)

Other than that actually think you did a real nice job.
 
I disagree with some of your choices but that is just my opinion versus yours. I’m not one to say that I am right and only my opinion matters. So I will give you full credit for posting this and putting it out there. Their will be a bunch of critics but that is them and you are you.

Thanks for all of the hard work you put into this.
 
I love bold takes even if they are wrong most of the time. The Andrew Cristall>>>>>>Michkov reminds me of the Kaut>>>>>>Makar take Musto had in 2018. Mixing it up every once in a while is fun for these boards.
 
TryamkinPleaseReturn said:
Please post your list here. Not top 80 but at least first round. Or at minimum top 15.
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Ah yeah, I'll get right on that.

There are umpteen prospect lists floating around and if you look at a lot of them you come away with a sort of BobbyMac lite consenesus. There are outliers to be sure but I don't think I'm out of line calling Musto's list the outliering outlier I've seen.
 
spfan said:
Simashev I'm surprised you're quite low on. His rankings are all over the place, so he doesn't really have a consensus ranking, but it's still a pretty low ranking. With his size and defensive play, he's kind of a safe pick and yet has pretty high upside too. I think he for sure deserves a 1st round ranking.
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I don't dislike Simashev.

I think his positioning and awareness suffers at times. But I do believe these are things that he can overcome with experience and the right coaching. I like that he moves well for his size. I think he looks really good in juniors but it's also the MHL so it's a really poor league. In my viewings of his KHL games, he's a lot less noticeable.

I like him as a puck mover, but I think his shot is really bad. It can't beat goalies, and it makes him a lot less threatening as a quarterback.

So I like the tools with Simashev, but I'm unsure of how it will come together. I also think generally speaking, the KHL isn't a great place for developing defensemen. His organization's exports in recent years are Ilya Lyubushkin and Vladislav Gavrikov.

If Gavrikov is what Simashev amounts to, I think that's fine. But I also think this is a loaded draft class so the competition is stiff.
Jacob said:
I certainly appreciate the attention to negative aspects. Too many scouting reports read like a player has no weaknesses and is a guaranteed superstar.
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Thanks. Yeah I try to cite areas where I feel like prospects need to improve. It's rare that prospects are flawless so it's important to explain where there are weaknesses and if those things could potentially result in failure at the next level.
TK 421 said:
I find your lack of Strbak disturbing.
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I'm unsure about Strbak. I have a hard time seeing what he'll be at the next level.

He doesn't produce enough be effective as an offensive defenseman. His skating isn't very good, so I don't think he'll be an effective stay at home defender since fast NHL skaters will blow by him and he'll have difficulty keeping up.

I think he's a good junior player, maybe a good college player. Beyond that, I just don't know. He's not super projectable other than his size.
 
Euros only

Carlsson- Should not be lower that #3 at this point. From what I saw at U18 WJC no way Leonard or Cristall should be higher
Reinbacher- around 6 seems fine
Michkov-People around here are coming with ridiculous claims about his "generational season" in KHL which is just a myth, still, he is a prodigy, and scored at will at international junior competition while it was possible for him, should be TOP 5
Dvorsky-Got somewhat underrated during the season, I expect a breakout season next year, TOP 10
ASP-Boom or bust, but around #15 seems correct, might be a steal
Honzek-I don't know, haven't seen him much, good numbers in WHL
Sale-The most underrated player in the first round I think. Should be TOP 10, maybe around 6. Ironic how that happened on a year, when Czechs grabbed silver at WJC, I guess, Kulich took all the glory. Concern about Sale is only regarding him being a play driver at higher level, but I think he will
Lindstein-Good all around player, but I would not put him ahead of Wilander
Gulyaev-Boom or bust guy, Russia can't produce offensive defensemen lately

Also, Edstrom, Stenberg, Wilander, Wahlberg are all too low. Simashev is in the right spot.
 
Garl said:
Euros only

Carlsson- Should not be lower that #3 at this point. From what I saw at U18 WJC no way Leonard or Cristall should be higher
Reinbacher- around 6 seems fine
Michkov-People around here are coming with ridiculous claims about his "generational season" in KHL which is just a myth, still, he is a prodigy, and scored at will at international junior competition while it was possible for him, should be TOP 5
Dvorsky-Got somewhat underrated during the season, I expect a breakout season next year, TOP 10
ASP-Boom or bust, but around #15 seems correct, might be a steal
Honzek-I don't know, haven't seen him much, good numbers in WHL
Sale-The most underrated player in the first round I think. Should be TOP 10, maybe around 6. Ironic how that happened on a year, when Czechs grabbed silver at WJC, I guess, Kulich took all the glory. Concern about Sale is only regarding him being a play driver at higher level, but I think he will
Lindstein-Good all around player, but I would not put him ahead of Wilander
Gulyaev-Boom or bust guy, Russia can't produce offensive defensemen lately

Also, Edstrom, Stenberg, Wilander, Wahlberg are all too low. Simashev is in the right spot.
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The reality is when you have such a deep draft class, inevitably there's going to be many prospects that are ranked "too low".

If they're on my board, I'm willing to draft them at some point. There are plenty of guys I watched that didn't make the cut because I just wouldn't use a pick on them.

So if I were a GM/head scout and my team is telling me that we need to pick a guy at 30 that is ranked 60 on the board, I'm listening and that's a conversation worth having. I don't approach a board like this as etched in stone. I'm flexible with movement.
 
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