Proposal: Karlsson to Ottawa

[Dust]

San Jose needs to decide what direction they are going. They're not close to a playoff team at the moment, and they're not bad enough to get a really good draft pick.

 

[Gecklund]

I respect the take, he's one of the guys I'd probably hold through a rebuild/tool as well. Or at least attempt to.

That being said, isn't it kind of presumptuous to know the plan before a new management group comes in? I understand Wilson would never make the move, I understand what ownership has said when DW had the reigns. But assuming whoever is coming in has full autonomy, they very may well find that a soft return on EK is more desirable than some of the other ways to open up flexibility.

It's obviously still a far fetched idea as far as Ottawa specifically, although they're probably one of the only teams willing to eat the full hit (assuming deeper pocketed owners) and might still be on Karlsson's shortlist of destinations that he can handpick.

I don’t think it’s presumptuous at all and only for a very specific reason. The committee for the search for GM is Joe Will (AGM), Hasso Plattner (owner) and John Beecher (CEO). All of them have said multiple times that they are not doing a tear down rebuild.

I don’t think it’s a safe assumption to think they have full autonomy or if they do, they’ll be looking to continue retooling the same way they did last season. Last season they identified their needs (goalie, 3C, leadership, depth). They went out and got Reimer/Hill, Bonino, Cogliano, and Pederson. They also had a few young guys come in and compete and they didn’t do great in all honesty apart from Middleton.

I think it’s safe to assume they will keep a majority of their picks and if they are trading them, it’s for guys that are max 25-26 like they did with Hill and Pederson. I think you’ll see a lot of big risks in their picks coming up and hope they get a star or two from them. From their current prospect pool guys with star potential are Merkley, Eklund, Gushchin, Gaudreau, Bordeleau. Now out of those I think you get Gaudreau as a solid 1G in about 5ish years and Eklund as a 1st liner.

That's likely the decision the Sharks will make, since they made a massive mistake choosing not to commit to a full rebuild and will likely wallow in mediocrity for the foreseeable future, not good enough to contend but not bad enough to finish at the bottom of the league.

In 4 years they will be paying a total of 42 million dollars to:

40YR old Burns
38YR old Vlasic
37YR old Couture
35YR old Karlsson
33YR old Hertl

That's insane.

If they were smart they'd be trying to offload those long-term contracts now while the players are still good.

I mean I don’t know if I would take advice from a Sens fan on how to run a team. Out of those contracts right now the only one that is very overpaid is Vlasic but he will likely be bought out soon. Burns is worth about what he makes, EK overpaid by a few million, Couture is worth about what he makes and Hertl is for sure worth what he makes. Will they all be at that level for the rest of their time? I mean I’d put money on no but you also can’t be sure of it. Jumbo put up a PPG season at like 37 (don’t remember off the top of my head) and I think Sens fans should remember guys like Spezza and Alfredsson producing into their later years.

You’re (not just you but anyone) are basing this off the current salary cap too. The cap is already going up this season even if it’s a small increase and should be going up more and more as more seasons go on. Also I think you will see at least one of Burns or Couture moved both without retention. We will likely take back a few bad contracts but contracts that give more flexibility. Just for an example of something off the top of my head but Burns and Bonino for something around say Faksa and Khudobin from DAL. Now I think Khudobin might be joining LTIR island soon but I’m not sure.

One other thing that I think you as a Sens fan (or Sens fans since this is a Sens/Sharks thread) is the Sharks have a pretty underrated prospect pool. Their future defense doesn’t look too great on all star level players but they have some interesting prospects in Merkley (2nd pair), Kniazev (2nd pair), Ferraro (complimentary 1st pair or good second pair), Hatakka (complimentary 2nd pair or good 3rd pair), Laroque (3rd pair) coming along. At forward they have a lot better than most people see on the outside though, obviously you see Eklund and Bordeleau who are likely the Sharks two best prospects but you also have guys like Robins (middle 6), Coe (middle 6), Wiesblatt (middle 6), Gushchin (top 6), Oberg (offensive bottom 6), Raska (pest bottom 6). That’s to go along with some of the young (ish) talent already on the roster in Balcers, Dahlen, Timo.

I totally understand your point about the mediocrity but my counter to that is if we get rid of all these vets and rush prospects and ruin them, does it really matter if we have all of these high picks? I think the Oilers are a perfect example. If they don’t luck into McDavid, they are still the laughing stock of the league even now. One of the reasons for that is bad drafting for sure but I think another reason is you’re forcing young guys into roles that they might not be quite ready for. Then they end up losing confidence and stop improving. By keeping guys like EK rather than dumping him, you give a bit of insulation for a guy like Merkley to learn the game and the NHL and learn from a guy like EK. Same thing with Hertl and a lesser extent with Burns and Couture.

Damn this post got away from me. Sorry.

 

[Bizz]

when he's already on the decline in his early 30s.

This is 100% objectively false.

 

[sens13]

at least 2 1sts and a high end prospect. add from there.

Yeah, that’s probably what it would take to dump that contract.

 

[sens13]

It’d be nice to get some input from more level-headed Sharks fans on EK’s trade value besides from the three posters who think two fists and Josh Norris is an underpayment.

 

[c_mak]

Is he as bad as his stats suggest? There were rumours he wasn't a fantastic leader, however I feel like those were PR spin.
If its bad contract for bad contract I'd do Karlson for Zaitsev and 2nd.
Some guys just play better for certain teams maybe this happens for Karlson. The "Trevor Linden affect". Crappy as an Islander awesome as a Canuck.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

He's not as bad as people make him out to be. He is overpaid, yes, but still a good defenseman in any top-4, and most top pairings.

He's not the superstar some Sharks fans claim, but also not a total cap dump that would require us to move first round picks to move him. Especially if retained (although it would never happen) he would have high value.

 

[Gecklund]

It’d be nice to get some input from more level-headed Sharks fans on EK’s trade value besides from the three posters who think two fists and Josh Norris is an underpayment.

yep because that’s what the offer was for. You wanna read up above where we explain why it would take more than anyone is willing to pay or are you just going to continue with your bullshit?

 

[North Cole]

The other option is they eat the whole amount . The Sharks signed it they have to live with or pay their way out . fans like to toss around the owners money like it is nothing but they never became billionaire's by wasting money . I could see an owner tell his GM to move the contract even if it only saves him 1/2 the money .

Money is not really being wasted in any sense here. I think they are more than happy to live with it, at the end of the day he sells jerseys and is still one of their better D, he likely a net positive for the Org.

 

[Gecklund]

Money is not really being wasted in any sense here. I think they are more than happy to live with it, at the end of the day he sells jerseys and is still one of their better D, he likely a net positive for the Org.

Literally exactly this.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That's likely the decision the Sharks will make, since they made a massive mistake choosing not to commit to a full rebuild and will likely wallow in mediocrity for the foreseeable future, not good enough to contend but not bad enough to finish at the bottom of the league.

In 4 years they will be paying a total of 42 million dollars to:

40YR old Burns
38YR old Vlasic
37YR old Couture
35YR old Karlsson
33YR old Hertl

That's insane.

If they were smart they'd be trying to offload those long-term contracts now while the players are still good.

Not if all they’re going to get are proposals where the Sharks pay for another team to take them as has been prevalent in these threads.

 

[bert]

Sharks aren’t retaining that much for that long for a bottom 6 prospect a first and a couple guys that wouldn’t even crack our roster. Try again.

Fair not to want that much retention but based on the bolded clearly you arent looking at this objectively. Maybe try that and come back with a counter.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Fair not to want that much retention but based on the bolded clearly you arent looking at this objectively. Maybe try that and come back with a counter.

The only really disputable claim in there is that Zaitsev wouldn’t crack our roster. Murray wouldn’t and it’s fair, even if I’m not of the same mind, to think Greig is a bottom six prospect.

 

[NyQuil]

I mean I don’t know if I would take advice from a Sens fan on how to run a team.

You should probably be aware that there is no Senators fan who is harsher (critical? objective?) on Senators management than him.

 

[North Cole]

Literally exactly this.

I just don't get where we stop digging once we get into the "money being wasted" rabbit hole. These owners operate in a league where you are required to spend minimum 60M to open the doors and have the lights on. Even if you plan on having a team that totally sucks for the purposes of losing games to draft better, you don't really save money.

Is he as good as he was in Ottawa at his peak? No. But I think I'd rather pay him 11M than pay the equivalent salary to three Zack Kassian clones. At least he will get some jerseys out the door and maybe put some butts in seats if you choose to rebuild.

I get that you can have paper contracts like the coyotes, but I'm not sure many owners are sitting here saying "well that's how you save money, that's a good model, I want my team to operate that way"... Probably not where we want to be looking for answers. Besides, they're getting a bunch of his 11M back on escrow anyways in the short term. It all balances out in the end, better to pay bigger names more money than a bunch of cast offs, team performance being equal. Especially if you have to sell of additional assets to get out from under it.

Talk about wasting money, paying Karlsson 5M to play else where is a big waste of money. Imagine the solution to not wasting money is too...pay money for them to not even be in your org anymore. Something something about cutting off your nose

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I just don't get where we stop digging once we get into the "money being wasted" rabbit hole. These owners operate in a league where you are required to spend minimum 60M to open the doors and have the lights on. Even if you plan on having a team that totally sucks for the purposes of losing games to draft better, you don't really save money.

Is he as good as he was in Ottawa at his peak? No. But I think I'd rather pay him 11M than pay the equivalent salary to three Zack Kassian clones. At least he will get some jerseys out the door and maybe put some butts in seats if you choose to rebuild.

I get that you can have paper contracts like the coyotes, but I'm not sure many owners are sitting here saying "well that's how you save money, that's a good model, I want my team to operate that way"... Probably not where we want to be looking for answers. Besides, they're getting a bunch of his 11M back on escrow anyways in the short term. It all balances out in the end, better to pay bigger names more money than a bunch of cast offs, team performance being equal. Especially if you have to sell of additional assets to get out from under it.

Talk about wasting money, paying Karlsson 5M to play else where is a big waste of money.

Wow you did a great job explaining this from an owner perspective. Lots of fans simply look at it from the hockey point of view, rather then bigger names affecting things such as merchandising, ticket sales, promotions, and just helping build a bigger brand for the organization. Karlsson is still a great defenseman in the league, and the money he brings in to Hasso Plattner off-the-ice makes up for the few million dollars he's overpaid.

 

[NyQuil]

Karlsson is still a great defenseman in the league, and the money he brings in to Hasso Plattner off-the-ice makes up for the few million dollars he's overpaid.

The gamble is whether it becomes more than a few million dollars and whether it's worth paying someone else to take that gamble on.

In any event, we've gone over this ground repeatedly.

Interesting discussion.

 

[Gecklund]

You should probably be aware that there is no Senators fan who is harsher (critical? objective?) on Senators management than him.

Twas more a joke than anything else. That’s why the sarcasm emoji was there.

 

[Gecklund]

Fair not to want that much retention but based on the bolded clearly you arent looking at this objectively. Maybe try that and come back with a counter.

What part is wrong? I don’t see Greig as being any more than a good third liner. I’m just not a fan of his. Zaitsev isn’t good and I’d rather have Ferraro, Knyzhov, Simek, Vlasic, Kniazev, Hatakka, Cicek over him (or what we already have). He’s not better than Simek right now but more expensive. We have Reimer, Hill, Kahkonen all better than Murray and we have Sawchenko who I’d rather have on the roster than him because of cap hit. Obviously the first is nice but it all depends on what lotto protected means. I’ve seen it be if they win the lotto or if they are in the lotto. There’s no clarification so I’m assuming the second one. So basically it’s a first that’s 15 or higher. What happens if it’s lower? There’s explanation of that so to me that means it just doesn’t transfer. So why are we moving our 1D for again 2 guys I don’t see making the roster, a guy who rightfully or wrongfully I see maxing out as a 3rd liner, and a 1st that might not transfer and if it does it’s mid to late?

 

[SpezDispenser]

What part is wrong? I don’t see Greig as being any more than a good third liner. I’m just not a fan of his. Zaitsev isn’t good and I’d rather have Ferraro, Knyzhov, Simek, Vlasic, Kniazev, Hatakka, Cicek over him (or what we already have). He’s not better than Simek right now but more expensive. We have Reimer, Hill, Kahkonen all better than Murray and we have Sawchenko who I’d rather have on the roster than him because of cap hit. Obviously the first is nice but it all depends on what lotto protected means. I’ve seen it be if they win the lotto or if they are in the lotto. There’s no clarification so I’m assuming the second one. So basically it’s a first that’s 15 or higher. What happens if it’s lower? There’s explanation of that so to me that means it just doesn’t transfer. So why are we moving our 1D for again 2 guys I don’t see making the roster, a guy who rightfully or wrongfully I see maxing out as a 3rd liner, and a 1st that might not transfer and if it does it’s mid to late?

If Greig is a 3rd liner, he would project to be an elite third liner. I think it would only be by numbers that he would be a 3rd liner, unless suddenly his scoring disappears. 39 games in the WHL, 26 goals, 63 points and 92 PIMs and if you've seen him play, he's 100% as advertised. Wait until this guy fills out...

That's why there's no way in the world Ottawa trades him unless it's a young, big time player coming back (in which, I understand Greig would be but one of the pieces).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If Greig is a 3rd liner, he would project to be an elite third liner. I think it would only be by numbers that he would be a 3rd liner, unless suddenly his scoring disappears. 39 games in the WHL, 26 goals, 63 points and 92 PIMs and if you've seen him play, he's 100% as advertised. Wait until this guy fills out...

That's why there's no way in the world Ottawa trades him unless it's a young, big time player coming back (in which, I understand Greig would be but one of the pieces).

Scoring often doesn't translate from the WHL to the NHL. I think Greig would probably end up 2nd line level on the Sharks because they have the spot available with Labanc, Dahlen, and Balcers all failing to establish themselves at that level. The Sharks will probably have Meier, Barabanov, and Eklund in top six winger spots next season. There's one available. I don't know if Greig is ready as of next season to take the spot but he'd have the spot open to take if he could. But there's still plenty of competition for that spot and guys take steps as they get more experience and work on their game.

I honestly wouldn't mind Greig as a part of the puzzle but that, a mid-round 1st, and a bunch of contracts for Karlsson is hardly worth it for me. As maligned as Karlsson seems to be to certain people, he's still a good enough player to keep if nothing impressive is being offered. I'm not moving Karlsson just to get out from his contract a few years earlier. Unless it makes a legitimate dent in finding a new core, I'm just not that interested. Another winger prospect and a pick at the 16-25 level wouldn't entice me to do such a deal.

I get why teams won't want Karlsson and that it ultimately adjusts his value but that's why I'm perfectly content with keeping him and rebuilding around him until he asks out or we can rent him at the tail end of the contract. Sharks aren't getting out of their situation until two things happen. One, ownership realizes the only legitimate path forward to competing again is rebuilding. Two, contracts and dead money simply run their course.

 

[Gecklund]

If Greig is a 3rd liner, he would project to be an elite third liner. I think it would only be by numbers that he would be a 3rd liner, unless suddenly his scoring disappears. 39 games in the WHL, 26 goals, 63 points and 92 PIMs and if you've seen him play, he's 100% as advertised. Wait until this guy fills out...

That's why there's no way in the world Ottawa trades him unless it's a young, big time player coming back (in which, I understand Greig would be but one of the pieces).

And I mean that’s fine. We all have different views of prospects. For example, I thought Chekhovich and Chmelevski were going to answer the Sharks prayers and both be top 6 forwards. Chmelevski is on the path of establishing himself as an NHL player but probably won’t be more than a complimentary top 6 forward if everything goes right for him. Chekhovich couldn’t even make it work in the AHL and isn’t Sharks property anymore. I just genuinely do not see it translating over as closely as you. I could very well be wrong and if I am kudos to you but I mean that’s the point of scouting and drafting and the risks of them. I have seen him play and I’m just not impressed. Probably not as much as you or other Sens fans for sure though.

 

[SpezDispenser]

And I mean that’s fine. We all have different views of prospects. For example, I thought Chekhovich and Chmelevski were going to answer the Sharks prayers and both be top 6 forwards. Chmelevski is on the path of establishing himself as an NHL player but probably won’t be more than a complimentary top 6 forward if everything goes right for him. Chekhovich couldn’t even make it work in the AHL and isn’t Sharks property anymore. I just genuinely do not see it translating over as closely as you. I could very well be wrong and if I am kudos to you but I mean that’s the point of scouting and drafting and the risks of them. I have seen him play and I’m just not impressed. Probably not as much as you or other Sens fans for sure though.

I respect all opinions, but if you've seen him play and weren't impressed, you are very hard to please lol.

 

[jbeck5]

40% retained seems about fair since he's only about 40% of the player he was when he left ..

Wouldn't it be fair if he was 60% of the player he was when he left? Lol

 

[Gecklund]

I respect all opinions, but if you've seen him play and weren't impressed, you are very hard to please lol.

I’ve just never really been a fan of those gritty type players especially ones that aren’t necessarily big (although still young). Those are the types of guys I don’t see the scoring translating. Now granted he’s more skilled than a majority of those guys and isn’t your typical pest type player but I just am not a huge fan. Basically I see him as maxing out at a Brendan Gallagher level but more likely to end up as a third liner. As you (or someone else earlier) said a good/elite one but still a third liner. Now again I could very well be wrong and just another guy on my blemish on my prospect future telling skills is John Leonard who I thought would be a top 6 player by this point based on his skill set who is just now establishing himself as a top 6 player.

With all this shitting on my future telling abilities that are happening currently, I’d like to say I also saw Josh Norris as a top 6 C even though people were down on him. So it’s not all bad I promise!