Historically, yes, this is true. But I think the Canes' offer sheet might have changed the landscape of offer sheets moving forwards. Time will tell. The game of offer sheets is that the team who throws out the offer has to give up a compensatory draft pick. Usually, these are in the 1st, 1st+ variety, because the 2nd and lower compensation tier is less money.
For Kappo Kakko, it's pretty interesting because the 2nd compensation tier actually puts the Rangers in a position where they'd have to think about matching. Next year the Rangers have $8.8M in cap space, and this is assuming that performance bonuses this year don't cause an overage for next year - so it could be a little less. With that $8.8M, the Rangers have 9F, 8D, and 1G signed. They have to sign a goalie, so let's say league minimum so they have $8M left. On D they are fine. Of the forwards, they have to consider re-signing Strome, Kakko, Gauthier, and some scrubs. Gauthier will get, say, $1M. So $7M left for 2 forwards (to be at the minimum 12). If Kakko is signed at $4M, this gives them $3M left. It's doable, but you lose Strome and don't have much flexibility. It also gives an argument for Lafreniere to make at least that much.
It's not that the Rangers couldn't do it, but it would hurt them a little.
Now consider the teams who would make an offer sheet. A lot of teams have cap room next year, though most of them aren't contending. I could see Arizona dealing a 2nd for this offer. They have a million, after all. Or another team like Buffalo, Ottawa, and others just wanting to add this piece. A 2nd is nothing. If we get past that compensation to a 1st, then the bottom-dwelling teams need to think carefully because it could be a lottery pick. But the contending teams have a huge advantage here, because their 1st is inherently worth a lot less. There's always risk involved in any transaction, but I can see this contender-1st offer sheet scenario happening more often.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk. I'd like to thank my wife for her support, and for bernmeister for continuing to be the GOAT poster.
