Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko

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bhamill

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Looking back at his career high pace through 5 seasons in the league is not logical. It's way more likely that that 36 game sample is an outlier especially when you consider his struggles playing up on the second line this season with much improved linemate talent.

Like I said it's possible Blais surpasses that number at some point but it's going to be an outlier. He's a sub-30 point player in this league on a regular basis. He's a winning player on the fourth line and merely an average one on the third line (and by average I mean if your whole third line was Sammy Blaises you are profiling as like an 8 seed/missing the playoffs in terms of your team's talent level - obviously this doesn't mean you can't win a Cup with Sammy Blais on your third line but in the macro sense you should be planning on that player being a plus fourth liner for you because you should want plus players in every spot instead of average players in every spot or net negative players in ANY spot).
Yes I'm aware of what you already said. Doesn't make it any less wrong. Hahaha.
It's not that it's his career high pace, it's his MOST RECENT pace with 15 or more games played. How do you not see that as a better measuring stick than when he was 21 or 22, even though the "career year" was at age 24? The fact that he improved at age 24 over 21, 22 or 23 is f***ing NORMAL.
You just cant let this die. Hahaha.
Edit: his ppg were .27 (in 11 games) at 21; .13 (32 games) at 22; .33 (40 games) at 23 and .42 (36 games) at 24. Do you see the trend there? If you don't you just don't want to. But again if you think we should move on because he's always hurt, that's a different story.
 
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NickyFotiu

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mas0764

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Yes I'm aware of what you already said. Doesn't make it any less wrong. Hahaha.
Yeah, and I'm aware of what you said. Even more wrong.

It's not that it's his career high pace, it's his MOST RECENT pace with 15 or more games played. How do you not see that as a better measuring stick than when he was 21 or 22, even though the "career year" was at age 24?

Because "with 15 or more games played" is completely arbitrary and you only selected it because it paints his numbers in the best light.

I could easily say the only numbers worth considering is his most recent season with 37 or more games played. Oops, that's his 23 year old season and we're back down to 0.33 ppg.

The logical selection is either some sort of average or his most recent production with the teammates he's likely to have next season.

The average is 0.29 ppg. The most recent season is 0.29 ppg. Everything except the 36 game sample you are choosing is way under 0.4 ppg. There is no reason that his year 24 season, which is now going on 2 years in the rearview mirror and is an outlier from his year 23 season and his year 25 season, should be the expectation.

And it doesn't change my position on him anyway because 0.4 ppg is still just 32 points in a season. So he's still not a 35-40 ppg player.

The fact that he improved at age 24 over 21, 22 or 23 is f***ing NORMAL.

But he didn't improve this year. He was worse this season despite higher usage than his previous year.

You just cant let this die. Hahaha.

Typing "hahahah" multiple times in every post isn't a substitute for logical discourse nor does it make you seem like you are right.

Edit: his ppg were .27 (in 11 games) at 21; .13 (32 games) at 22; .33 (40 games) at 23 and .42 (36 games) at 24. Do you see the trend there? If you don't you just don't want to. But again if you think we should move on because he's always hurt, that's a different story.

And it was 0.29 at 25 playing a middle six role. Do you not see that he's topped out? .40 ppg is his high water mark and a likely outlier.

Even if I take his totals over his last 3 seasons, it's 32 total points in 90 total games. That's his age 23, 24, and 25 seasons.

And it's 0.35 ppg.

Which is 28 points in a season.

He's not a 35-40 point player. For this kind of player, a low-end energy grinder, it's NOT REASONABLE to conclude that you will see scoring progression from 22 to 23 to 24 to 25 to 26 to 27. That's not what Blais is. He's not going to keep improving those scoring numbers. What you saw this year is all he will ever be offensively, and even on this team playing a second line role he's about a 4 points every 14 games player. Maybe if he gets hot a couple more over the course of a season. That's all he is.

I actually don't think we should automatically move on. If he's cheap enough I'd love him back.... on the fourth line.

If Drury is going to go off foolishly installing him into the second or third line over Kravtsov or something then we are better off not having him, but that's a different discussion. Setting aside the biases of the GM, Blais is a quality fourth liner to have. I'd love to see him with Goodrow on that fourth line too.

But as a third liner he's average and he's absolutely not a 40 point player. He may have a season where he approaches that like once in his career, but he will always regress back down because he doesn't have the talent to sustain a career as a consistent 35-40 point player.
 
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OTGHockey

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Kakko now has a sample of like 3 years.

Well, not exactly. He's played in three seasons, but none of them have been very normal. In his rookie season, the Rangers didn't play their last 12 games. Last year it was shortened to 56 games, and this year, well he's had the injuries.

Not to mention the odder schedules, COVID protocols, no crowds for part of the time....it's been an odd time for sure.

It's also worth considering his age. Arthur Staple had some useful perspective in his Mailbag yesterday, pointing out some recent Europeans who jumped straight to the NHl at a young age.

One of those examples was Aleksander Barkov, who didn't come flying out of the gate in his first two years either (and they were relatively normal), but has really turned into one of the best two way forwards in the game
Hockey Reference
Screenshot 2022-04-18 144753.png


Could we have hoped for more....sure, but I think the lack of PP time, the learning process coming from Europe and his age...you want to really temper expectations.

He's shown when he plays with confidence (also mentioned in the Mailbag article), he's looked pretty good, and he even did for stretch earlier in the season after his slow start.

As an aside, it might actually help the Rangers that he hasn't stood out to date, given that he's up for a new contract this Summer. Perhaps they can get somewhat cheaper for the next 2-3 years, and he finds his footing....alternatively, he's still young enough that he'd be an asset with value in a trade on an affordable contract.

Right now the Rangers need players at different stages of their careers to fill in around the edges of a core that is being paid at, or close to the highest they'll ever make. I'm firmly for keeping Kakko, Lafreniere is more complicated because of the left wing issue, but I'd be inclined to keep him too until we know how Othmann and Cuylle fit (if at all) in the picture.
 

DoingItCoolKiwi

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@vzmercogliano: "I fully expect him to be back for the playoffs," GG said on Kakko. Said they're hoping he can play the final 2-3 regular season games.

I'm sure some are understandably skeptical, but it sounds like there's not any serious damage. #NYR

So, is it this or week to week? Regular season ends in 10 days, so it cant be both.

Gallants injury reports are something else
 

will1066

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I think Gallant is habitually on the aggressive side of recovery timetables to give people false hope -- including himself. I think he's trying to convince himself when he's saying these things out loud to media.
 

bhamill

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Yeah, and I'm aware of what you said. Even more wrong.



Because "with 15 or more games played" is completely arbitrary and you only selected it because it paints his numbers in the best light.

I could easily say the only numbers worth considering is his most recent season with 37 or more games played. Oops, that's his 23 year old season and we're back down to 0.33 ppg.

The logical selection is either some sort of average or his most recent production with the teammates he's likely to have next season.

The average is 0.29 ppg. The most recent season is 0.29 ppg. Everything except the 36 game sample you are choosing is way under 0.4 ppg. There is no reason that his year 24 season, which is now going on 2 years in the rearview mirror and is an outlier from his year 23 season and his year 25 season, should be the expectation.

And it doesn't change my position on him anyway because 0.4 ppg is still just 32 points in a season. So he's still not a 35-40 ppg player.



But he didn't improve this year. He was worse this season despite higher usage than his previous year.



Typing "hahahah" multiple times in every post isn't a substitute for logical discourse nor does it make you seem like you are right.



And it was 0.29 at 25 playing a middle six role. Do you not see that he's topped out? .40 ppg is his high water mark and a likely outlier.

Even if I take his totals over his last 3 seasons, it's 32 total points in 90 total games. That's his age 23, 24, and 25 seasons.

And it's 0.35 ppg.

Which is 28 points in a season.

He's not a 35-40 point player. For this kind of player, a low-end energy grinder, it's NOT REASONABLE to conclude that you will see scoring progression from 22 to 23 to 24 to 25 to 26 to 27. That's not what Blais is. He's not going to keep improving those scoring numbers. What you saw this year is all he will ever be offensively, and even on this team playing a second line role he's about a 4 points every 14 games player. Maybe if he gets hot a couple more over the course of a season. That's all he is.

I actually don't think we should automatically move on. If he's cheap enough I'd love him back.... on the fourth line.

If Drury is going to go off foolishly installing him into the second or third line over Kravtsov or something then we are better off not having him, but that's a different discussion. Setting aside the biases of the GM, Blais is a quality fourth liner to have. I'd love to see him with Goodrow on that fourth line too.

But as a third liner he's average and he's absolutely not a 40 point player. He may have a season where he approaches that like once in his career, but he will always regress back down because he doesn't have the talent to sustain a career as a consistent 35-40 point player.
You’re still doing the same thing. HAHAHA. Pretending that he hasn’t been trending upward in ppg when he gets games in.
Youre grasping at straws.
and BTW it’s .42 ppg which is 34.44 for 82 games. And yeah if he scored a point higher to be 35 points it wouldn’t surprise me (since I can tell you’ll grasp onto the .36 points over an 82 game season to say he couldn’t be a 35 point scorer.) You are trying so desperately to be “right” that you refuse to use conventional logic. Go on and tell us again how it’s not normal that a player improves between his age 23 and 26 seasons.
you are being ridiculous here. HAHAHA.
 
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IDvsEGO

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Is it worse than any other team in the league?
We’re probably about middle of the pack w injuries /games lost.
But we lost very little from the top of our lineup, or we’re able to move guys up to not feel it and keep moving.
Montreal was the worst team for injuries. Islanders were really injured as well.
 

mas0764

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You’re still doing the same thing. HAHAHA. Pretending that he hasn’t been trending upward in ppg when he gets games in.
Youre grasping at straws.
and BTW it’s .42 ppg which is 34.44 for 82 games. And yeah if he scored a point higher to be 35 points it wouldn’t surprise me (since I can tell you’ll grasp onto the .36 points over an 82 game season to say he couldn’t be a 35 point scorer.) You are trying so desperately to be “right” that you refuse to use conventional logic. Go on and tell us again how it’s not normal that a player improves between his age 23 and 26 seasons.
you are being ridiculous here. HAHAHA.

He hasn’t been trending up. He trended down last season.

And I didn’t tell you a player doesn’t improve between 23 and 26.
 

bhamill

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He hasn’t been trending up. He trended down last season.

And I didn’t tell you a player doesn’t improve between 23 and 26.
He’s been trending up when he gets the games in. He’s trended up every year he gets 30 plus games since he was 22. You can’t judge off a 14 game season. If he had gotten three assists more this season would you be saying he was a 40 point player by his ppg? Of course not. Because it’s a sample size to small to judge off of. You’re just being disingenuous now.
And yes. You’ve been saying it without saying it explicitly. What doyou think it implies when you say Blais won’t likely score at a better clip at 26 ( next season) than he did two years ago (23). Come on. You cant be that obtuse.
 

huerter

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Goodrow has actually won…twice. I love how Fast, a guy nobody wanted in the middle six, is suddenly being used as the better half of a comp with Goodrow. Aight.
What in the hell? Everyone I know was cised to have Fast playing with Panarin and most importantly, Panarin was in heaven.
 
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