Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko

[mas0764]

For reference... P/GP in D+4

Sasha Barkov: 0.85
Patrick Marleau: 0.64
Sam Reinhart: 0.61
Blake Wheeler: 0.56 (D+5)
James van Riemsdyk: 0.53
David Legwand: 0.50
Henrik Sedin: 0.50
Radek Bonk: 0.46
Kaapo Kakko: 0.44
Nino Niederreiter: 0.44
Andrew Ladd: 0.42
Daniel Sedin: 0.40
Kyle Turris: 0.38
Mikko Koivu: 0.33 (D+5)
Olli Jokinen: 0.32
Shane Doan: 0.28

Holding out hope he's a Sedin.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Good study Dirty.

I wish there was a way to measure 3rd assists or possession/touch metrics leading to goals scored. Same for leading to high danger chances. This year he has to be very high in that regard.

He starts and maintains so many high pressure shifts in the o-zone. Its hard to quantify but if you watch every night you see it. His puck possession ability and recently improved skills and decision making in that regard has lead to a lot of goals and almost goals, after he wouldve received a point

 

[Rongomania]

Good study Dirty.

I wish there was a way to measure 3rd assists or possession/touch metrics leading to goals scored. Same for leading to high danger chances. This year he has to be very high in that regard.

He starts and maintains so many high pressure shifts in the o-zone. Its hard to quantify but if you watch every night you see it. His puck possession ability and recently improved skills and decision making in that regard has lead to a lot of goals and almost goals, after he wouldve received a point

100000% this.

 

[will1066]

The most interesting stat for me in relation to Kakko is IPP (individual points percentage) which measures what percent of the goals scored while the player is on the ice the player got a point on. Last year I saw that the average for a forward was around 65%. Kakko has averaged well below that for his career, having only last year hit 65 (nearly exactly at 65.22%).

Just for fun I was comparing Kakkos age 21 season (this year) to some of the more prominent Finnish stars in the league (Rantanen, Barkov, Aho, Hintz, and Laine). And it was intriguing to see how closely nestled he is with the rest of them in the majority of 5v5 stats. Unsurprisingly, he fares better with "play driving" stats like xG, and not as well with scoring rates and actual goals. Maybe unsurprisingly, each of those players had significantly higher IPPs in those years. This year Kakko's IPP sits at 55.56%.

IPP like SH% is often glanced at to spot outliers, and just like that stat, doesn't tell us the actual cause of it's distribution. It could be the case that Kakko is just worse at getting points than the average player. But I don't think that's likely to bear out. There's yet to be a stretch of Kakko's career where the IPP and On Ice Sh% are high at the same time, but then Kakko's never spent even 50% of one season's 5v5 time with a single teammate and only this season has done so with two linemates. By comparison, those other Finns in their age 21 seasons had the following splits:

Player (Age 21 Season)	IPP	On Ice Sh% (Player)	On Ice xGF/60	On Ice xGF Relative to Team	Most Common Teammate (5v5 Time %)	Most Common Line (5v5 Time %)
Barkov	75.61%	8.56	2.42	.13	Jagr (88%)	Barkov-Jagr-Huberdeau (43%)
Aho	63.49%	8.56	3.31	.25	Teravainen (49.92%)	Aho-Williams-Neiderreiter (48%)
Rantanen	72.41%	8.06	2.53	.12	MacKinnon (85%)	Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog (93%)
Laine	66.04%	10.58	2.23	.03	Scheifele (73%)	Laine-Scheifele-Connor (74%)
Hintz	68.42%	5.82	2.31	-.07	Radulov (34%)	Hintz-Radulov-Seguin (46%)
Kakko	55.56%	8.56	2.78	.12	Zibanejad (47%)	Kakko-Zibanejad-Kreider (50%)

Of course, there aren't any hard-line truths to glean here, but considering how Kakko fares relative to these players at the same age in driving xGF and even in the rate that shots are going in when he's on the ice, he comes out not quite fitting the bill of a player hurting his team's finishing ability, but certainly one struggling to get in on the scoring. Kakko himself has been an efficient shooter this season, scoring nearly in line with his own xG rate and shooting just a bit over his usual range at 11%. I include the linemate piece because it's a personal hypothesis that this has something to do with his IPP. Having mostly inconsistent linemates, until this season (and still not consistent to the scale of Rantanen, Barkov, or Laine), may be impacting the amount of points Kakko's been able to get in on. It's just a guess that none of these numbers will verify, but it's worth noting that the line of Kakko-Zibanejad Kreider has shot under 7% as a line across two seasons (this year at 6.95%). I find Hintz's example here adds to this picture as well since he did not "break out" as a 21 year old.

TLDR; hard to summarize, but I spent some hours today avoiding emails to compare Kakko's 21y/o season to other star Finns. Found that he compares well in most everything except points, IPP, and (withe exceptions) linemate consistency. The real TLDR might be, leave Kakko where he is and I suspect that line will start scoring more often and Kakko will be getting points on a larger share of those goals, and by the end of the season, could conceivably compare even more favorably against his higher-profile comparisons here.

work emails?

 

[mas0764]

The most interesting stat for me in relation to Kakko is IPP (individual points percentage) which measures what percent of the goals scored while the player is on the ice the player got a point on. Last year I saw that the average for a forward was around 65%. Kakko has averaged well below that for his career, having only last year hit 65 (nearly exactly at 65.22%).

Just for fun I was comparing Kakkos age 21 season (this year) to some of the more prominent Finnish stars in the league (Rantanen, Barkov, Aho, Hintz, and Laine). And it was intriguing to see how closely nestled he is with the rest of them in the majority of 5v5 stats. Unsurprisingly, he fares better with "play driving" stats like xG, and not as well with scoring rates and actual goals. Maybe unsurprisingly, each of those players had significantly higher IPPs in those years. This year Kakko's IPP sits at 55.56%.

IPP like SH% is often glanced at to spot outliers, and just like that stat, doesn't tell us the actual cause of it's distribution. It could be the case that Kakko is just worse at getting points than the average player. But I don't think that's likely to bear out. There's yet to be a stretch of Kakko's career where the IPP and On Ice Sh% are high at the same time, but then Kakko's never spent even 50% of one season's 5v5 time with a single teammate and only this season has done so with two linemates. By comparison, those other Finns in their age 21 seasons had the following splits:

Player (Age 21 Season)	IPP	On Ice Sh% (Player)	On Ice xGF/60	On Ice xGF Relative to Team	Most Common Teammate (5v5 Time %)	Most Common Line (5v5 Time %)
Barkov	75.61%	8.56	2.42	.13	Jagr (88%)	Barkov-Jagr-Huberdeau (43%)
Aho	63.49%	8.56	3.31	.25	Teravainen (49.92%)	Aho-Williams-Neiderreiter (48%)
Rantanen	72.41%	8.06	2.53	.12	MacKinnon (85%)	Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog (93%)
Laine	66.04%	10.58	2.23	.03	Scheifele (73%)	Laine-Scheifele-Connor (74%)
Hintz	68.42%	5.82	2.31	-.07	Radulov (34%)	Hintz-Radulov-Seguin (46%)
Kakko	55.56%	8.56	2.78	.12	Zibanejad (47%)	Kakko-Zibanejad-Kreider (50%)

Of course, there aren't any hard-line truths to glean here, but considering how Kakko fares relative to these players at the same age in driving xGF and even in the rate that shots are going in when he's on the ice, he comes out not quite fitting the bill of a player hurting his team's finishing ability, but certainly one struggling to get in on the scoring. Kakko himself has been an efficient shooter this season, scoring nearly in line with his own xG rate and shooting just a bit over his usual range at 11%. I include the linemate piece because it's a personal hypothesis that this has something to do with his IPP. Having mostly inconsistent linemates, until this season (and still not consistent to the scale of Rantanen, Barkov, or Laine), may be impacting the amount of points Kakko's been able to get in on. It's just a guess that none of these numbers will verify, but it's worth noting that the line of Kakko-Zibanejad Kreider has shot under 7% as a line across two seasons (this year at 6.95%). I find Hintz's example here adds to this picture as well since he did not "break out" as a 21 year old.

TLDR; hard to summarize, but I spent some hours today avoiding emails to compare Kakko's 21y/o season to other star Finns. Found that he compares well in most everything except points, IPP, and (withe exceptions) linemate consistency. The real TLDR might be, leave Kakko where he is and I suspect that line will start scoring more often and Kakko will be getting points on a larger share of those goals, and by the end of the season, could conceivably compare even more favorably against his higher-profile comparisons here.

Interestingly I've long had this concept of IPP rolling around in my head and I wonder where Lafreniere ranks. I would bet not good.

 

[will1066]

Interestingly I've long had this concept of IPP rolling around in my head and I wonder where Lafreniere ranks. I would bet not good.

Ye of little faith. At least you're down with IPP. Who's down with IPP? Yeah, you know me.

 

[TheDirtyH]

work emails?

Fan letters

 

[SA16]

Good study Dirty.

I wish there was a way to measure 3rd assists or possession/touch metrics leading to goals scored. Same for leading to high danger chances. This year he has to be very high in that regard.

He starts and maintains so many high pressure shifts in the o-zone. Its hard to quantify but if you watch every night you see it. His puck possession ability and recently improved skills and decision making in that regard has lead to a lot of goals and almost goals, after he wouldve received a point

Just subtract points from GF and you can at least get a "Potential Third Assist" from there.

 

[QJL]

If all we get out of Kakko is a Jere Lehtinen player, I'm going to be sorely disappointed.

Lehtinen was a great PKer, but he was a 4th round pick who turned into a serviceable NHLer, not a #2 overall. Besides being Finnish, his playstyle has literally nothing in common with Kakko as Lehtinen's game was all about speed.

Worst case scenario, I'm hoping for a Jakub Voracek that scores more but gets fewer assists.

Best case scenario, I'm hoping for Barkov.

Lehtinen was still a borderline top 10 player in his draft year. I think Kakko will have more offense than that when he develops.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Lehtinen was still a borderline top 10 player in his draft year. I think Kakko will have more offense than that when he develops.

Sorely disappointed?

Lehtinen won 3 Selkes (Runner up 3x) and a Stanley Cup. You can sign me up for that and I dont care where the player is drafted. The flashy numbers are nice, sure. But in the end, for me - its about winning. Lehtinen was one of, if not the best at what he did for a decade.

Life is short, goals and assists only mean so much. Fans put too much stock into that.

 

[markymarc1215]

KK is going to be fine. He is exactly where we expected him to be this year. Driving the play and a puck possession beast. Let him grow into his role.

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

Sorely disappointed?

Lehtinen won 3 Selkes (Runner up 3x) and a Stanley Cup. You can sign me up for that and I dont care where the player is drafted. The flashy numbers are nice, sure. But in the end, for me - its about winning. Lehtinen was one of, if not the best at what he did for a decade.

Life is short, goals and assists only mean so much. Fans put too much stock into that.

Modano.
Nieuwendyk.
Hull.
Zubov.
Prime Sydor.
Verbeek.
Derian Hatcher/Richard Matvichuk in the height of the trap/clutch/grab era.
Peak Belfour.

All those were greater reasons why Dallas won a Cup. It allowed Lehtinen to basically play on the third line and kill penalties, which is where he was a fit.

Lehtinen was a decent player and very good in that role, but you're damn right I'm going to be disappointed if that's all Kakko turns into. He has the potential to be so much more. That's like test driving a Lambo on a closed course and saying you're thankful you got it to go 85 on the test track, because it was the thrill of a lifetime.

This team doesn't need any more middle 6 players. Most Cup winners these days are built very differently than the teams in the 90s. Outside of St. Louis, few teams relied on depth and systems exclusively instead of talent to win.

It needs a young/durable elite forward who can play a dominant game, even against bigger players, and take some of the checking pressure off guys like Panarin and Zibanejad who while generally very good, struggle against the tighter checking in the playoffs.

We lost to Tampa because we simply did not have the scoring ability, especially at even strength.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Modano.
Nieuwendyk.
Hull.
Zubov.
Prime Sydor.
Verbeek.
Derian Hatcher/Richard Matvichuk in the height of the trap/clutch/grab era.
Peak Belfour.

All those were greater reasons why Dallas won a Cup. It allowed Lehtinen to basically play on the third line and kill penalties, which is where he was a fit.

Lehtinen was a decent player and very good in that role, but you're damn right I'm going to be disappointed if that's all Kakko turns into. He has the potential to be so much more. That's like test driving a Lambo on a closed course and saying you're thankful you got it to go 85 on the test track, because it was the thrill of a lifetime.

This team doesn't need any more middle 6 players. Most Cup winners these days are built very differently than the teams in the 90s. Outside of St. Louis, few teams relied on depth and systems exclusively instead of talent to win.

It needs a young/durable elite forward who can play a dominant game, even against bigger players, and take some of the checking pressure off guys like Panarin and Zibanejad who while generally very good, struggle against the tighter checking in the playoffs.

We lost to Tampa because we simply did not have the scoring ability, especially at even strength.

Different eras. Yes, if Kakko ends up averaging 50 points a season like Lehtinen that would be disappointing but I think the point is Lehtinen made a big impact on a highly successful team in ways other than pure scoring which is something Kakko may be able to do as well.

If Kakko becomes a perennial Selke candidate and scores in the 60-70 point range and the team wins a cup I'm OK with that outcome.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Modano.
Nieuwendyk.
Hull.
Zubov.
Prime Sydor.
Verbeek.
Derian Hatcher/Richard Matvichuk in the height of the trap/clutch/grab era.
Peak Belfour.

All those were greater reasons why Dallas won a Cup. It allowed Lehtinen to basically play on the third line and kill penalties, which is where he was a fit.

Lehtinen was a decent player and very good in that role, but you're damn right I'm going to be disappointed if that's all Kakko turns into. He has the potential to be so much more. That's like test driving a Lambo on a closed course and saying you're thankful you got it to go 85 on the test track, because it was the thrill of a lifetime.

This team doesn't need any more middle 6 players. Most Cup winners these days are built very differently than the teams in the 90s. Outside of St. Louis, few teams relied on depth and systems exclusively instead of talent to win.

It needs a young/durable elite forward who can play a dominant game, even against bigger players, and take some of the checking pressure off guys like Panarin and Zibanejad who while generally very good, struggle against the tighter checking in the playoffs.

We lost to Tampa because we simply did not have the scoring ability, especially at even strength.

Lethinen scored 30 goals twice and scored 20 or more 7 times, with all of the other hardware. He also had almost 150 power play points. He wouldnt have won all of the Selkes if he didnt have an offensive dimension to his game. He was a very well rounded, consistent player.

Not every 1st or 2nd draft pick has to be McDavid, Matthews or Crosby. At least thats my take on it. I'm more than fine if he turns into this type of player. Maybe he will offer something different that isnt as noticed but results in a stronger team that wins more.

If thats the case, the Rangers imho have a better shot at winning it all because of it - considering their penchant for signing and trading for big names with flashy stat totals. They cant get out of their own way in that regard. One of the only ways for any team to get a player of Lethinen's talents, you have to be lucky enough to draft one. I wouldn't care if its at #2.

 

[LeetchisGod]

His refusal to shoot the puck is infuriating.

 

[Leonardo87]

That 2 on 1 was really mind-boggling. Looked even worse in person. lol.

 

[bl02]

That 2 on 1 was really mind-boggling. Looked even worse in person. lol.

Who's fault was that tho? To me it seems like Lafreniere was too slow and indecisive with the puck but maybe I need to see it again. Like you said tho it was really sad to watch especially after Shesty made such a nice pass.

 

[Leonardo87]

Who's fault was that tho? To me it seems like Lafreniere was too slow and indecisive with the puck but maybe I need to see it again. Like you said tho it was really sad to watch especially after Shesty made such a nice pass.

I think it was a combination of both. Maybe Laf didn't make the best pass, or hesitated, but Kakko was not ready for it obviously. I also have to watch it again, I was at the game, so didn't see it on TV.

 

[CLW]

I think it was a combination of both. Maybe Laf didn't make the best pass, or hesitated, but Kakko was not ready for it obviously. I also have to watch it again, I was at the game, so didn't see it on TV.

Kakko needs to embrace shooting, even if it is not the optimal play. To me it seems he needs a longer and maybe stouter stick to help with longer reach and more oomph on his shots. Confidence finishing is the final piece to his game.

 

[Peltz]

Kakko shot a one timer from a gorgeous cross ice pass from Zibanejad in the first period and Fleury robbed him with the save of the game (a gorgeous glove save sliding post to post with a windmill at the end). There was no hesitation: he received the pass and shot it in one fluid motion and the placement was good too (more elevation would have been better but it was still an NHL goal-scorer's caliber shot).

So after that, Kakko may have gotten in his own head with the 2 on 1 opportunity with Laf. Kakko can think "shoot first" as he did earlier in the game. The kid just overthought it the second time around and that's okay. He's continuing to improve and look amazing every night so some mistakes are okay.

I'd rather he push slightly too hard to be creative and feel comfortable making a mistake than feel like he has to keep his game too simple or get yelled at by the coach.

As long as he holds onto the puck as well as he is, and playing responsible hockey in his own end, we should be cool with him screwing up here and there in the offensive zone. It's part of the process. We want him to shoot from the slot, but it's not like he's NOT doing that. He's just not doing it every time.

It's not like he's flubbing all of his opportunities either. He's starting to put up points and doing good things even in plays where he isn't credited with a point but still put in the work where his line mates score.

 

[bhamill]

Who's fault was that tho? To me it seems like Lafreniere was too slow and indecisive with the puck but maybe I need to see it again. Like you said tho it was really sad to watch especially after Shesty made such a nice pass.

The pass from Lafrenierre was fine, Kakko just chose to try to pass it back rather than shoot it. Which made me scream at my TV: "Why didn't you shoot that!" hahahaha.

 

[redwhiteandblue]

That 2 on 1 was really mind-boggling. Looked even worse in person. lol.

Agreed, but that was an amazing game to see. Bought me a Fox reverse retro when we were down 2-0, so you're all welcome!

 

[Ranger Wolf]

The pass from Lafrenierre was fine, Kakko just chose to try to pass it back rather than shoot it. Which made me scream at my TV: "Why didn't you shoot that!" hahahaha.

I felt like Kakko was unselfishly trying to get Laf going

 

[bhamill]

I felt like Kakko was unselfishly trying to get Laf going

Fair enough, but he should have shot. Hahaha.

 

[dangsLITE]

Is anyone working the kid on driving to center of the ice/driving the net? He might not have a ton of speed but he has the size/hands/balance to possess the puck in the middle of the ice not just on the boards. I know he's been snakebitten and seems to always get screwed out of points more than most, but he's never going to see a meaningful jump in/more consistency in points until he figures this out.

He's creating enough space that if a coach just worked with him, he would have pretty quick success IMO... think he did a better job of this pre-NHL too so maybe it's a confidence thing too.