Hate seeing non Rangers fans acting like this guy sucks. He's clearly got skill and he's becoming more consistent. He's got some great hands and an excellent passer. Would like to see him shoot more. Without the awful luck He's had he could have 7 to 10 more points. Keep him at all costs please.
Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko
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Amazing Kreiderman
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- Apr 11, 2011
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If it was about stats, they would at least understand. All they do is check the box-score and profile page.
Point production is not always the telling tale. I’m loving Kakko’s game now and if he had about maybe another 7 or 8 points and pacing for over 50 points would really change a lot of negativity towards him. Anything 50 points or more to me is Top 6 production.
If Kakko ends up being a two way 50-60 point power forward will be content. If he ends up better awesome but have to stay realistic.
Like I said in the Laf thread, a lot of players won’t break out till like 24-26 yo.
If Kakko ends up being a two way 50-60 point power forward will be content. If he ends up better awesome but have to stay realistic.
Like I said in the Laf thread, a lot of players won’t break out till like 24-26 yo.
Amazing Kreiderman
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Jere Lehtinen won 3 Selke trophies (last winger to win the Selke) and he hit 50 points only twice. I know we all want superstars out of top picks but if Kakko turns into a Lehtinen-type player who wins some individual silverware and solifies himself as an elite 2-way player, I am thrilled.
- Jul 16, 2005
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I can't be thrilled with that because that's not one of the best 2-3 forwards you need to win a Cup.
But if it's all we get out of him I'm still keeping him. I'm just going back into the lottery looking for my star center.
People on this very board are doing the same. People that should know better.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Lehtinen won a Cup on a team where he was arguably the third best forward.
- Jul 16, 2005
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Eh, close. Still, that's not one of your repeating Cup winners and it's arguable.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
TopShelfSnipes
Snipes Like Tarasenkoooo
If all we get out of Kakko is a Jere Lehtinen player, I'm going to be sorely disappointed.
Lehtinen was a great PKer, but he was a 4th round pick who turned into a serviceable NHLer, not a #2 overall. Besides being Finnish, his playstyle has literally nothing in common with Kakko as Lehtinen's game was all about speed.
Worst case scenario, I'm hoping for a Jakub Voracek that scores more but gets fewer assists.
Best case scenario, I'm hoping for Barkov.
Lehtinen was a great PKer, but he was a 4th round pick who turned into a serviceable NHLer, not a #2 overall. Besides being Finnish, his playstyle has literally nothing in common with Kakko as Lehtinen's game was all about speed.
Worst case scenario, I'm hoping for a Jakub Voracek that scores more but gets fewer assists.
Best case scenario, I'm hoping for Barkov.
Barkov isnt a PPG until D+5.
And he didn't have covid seasons which hurt development badly.
TopShelfSnipes
Snipes Like Tarasenkoooo
True but 59 points in 66 games in his third season in the league is not far off, and was a clear jump from his previous season.
Kakko definitely has it in him to make that kind of jump, and I as a fan remain committed to believing he will land somewhere between Voracek and Barkov.
I just find it frustrating how easy our fanbase tends to lower expectations for top prospects and be excited for them to turn into mediocre middle 6 players, that's all. Not singling anyone out with this, but it's just been a lifetime of 0 elite homegrown players.
- Jul 16, 2005
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I once upon a time had hopes that Gorton was constructing a team capable of winning more than once, like the Kings or Blackhawks, even lacking the double 1Cs like the Penguins had with Malkin and Crosby.
I think that ship has sailed.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
The only way to really do that is to have Hall of Famers just appear, whether that's in your system, or in the spot you're drafting.
That's really only happened with Fox and I would argue there's nothing we could have done different to make it happen.
Winning more than one Cup requires extraordinary luck. I would be very satisfied with this team becoming a consistent serious contender for a long time.
- Jul 16, 2005
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I would argue and have argued many times that I think some of our past commitments to veterans and/or adding grit instead of skill hampered our goals at building a team that can win more than once, and that we'd be closer in the long game... but that's water under the bridge at this point.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
We could have stayed bad longer but we already missed the chance to draft Hughes, and arguably never had that chance. If we were still bad now, we'd have (at best) like a 20% shot at Bedard, and that's if we were the worst team in the league.
As far as future HOF forward talents, that's pretty much your lot. The rest are going to be lower picks that had extraordinary development curves.
It goes beyond collecting lottery picks. It takes dumb luck too. The kind of dumb luck where Brian Leetch is reborn, we don't even draft him, and he ends up here somehow. Do that three or four times and you'll win multiple Cups.
- Jul 16, 2005
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But at the very least if you continue to give yourself lottery tickets, some dumb luck may strike.
One of the reasons I'm so adamant about not trading either of these 2023 firsts. Maybe we stumble into Brayden Point, David Pastrnak or Sebastian Aho, even picking in the 20s.
And if you drive yourself down for a bit longer, your own pick may not be Hughes or Bedard, but maybe it's Zegras or Mitchkov.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
I would agree with that.
I wouldn't necessarily sell, it's a business and that's not going to go over with the casual fans that saw us in the ECF last year, but I wouldn't buy on Kane or ROR either.
Amazing Kreiderman
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For reference... P/GP in D+4
Sasha Barkov: 0.85
Patrick Marleau: 0.64
Sam Reinhart: 0.61
Blake Wheeler: 0.56 (D+5)
James van Riemsdyk: 0.53
David Legwand: 0.50
Henrik Sedin: 0.50
Radek Bonk: 0.46
Kaapo Kakko: 0.44
Nino Niederreiter: 0.44
Andrew Ladd: 0.42
Daniel Sedin: 0.40
Kyle Turris: 0.38
Mikko Koivu: 0.33 (D+5)
Olli Jokinen: 0.32
Shane Doan: 0.28
He gets more pressure because he was the consensus 2ndOA pick. If he got onto the 1st PP unit think he’d be on pace for 50ish. His puck hound ability on the PP would be huge but right now no one is changing the personnel on that 1st unit.
Remember he had 13 PP points in his rookie season.
Amazing Kreiderman
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PP TOI for Kakko:
2019-20: 2.14 (13 points)
2020-21: 1.19 (3 points)
2021-22: 1.14 (2 points)
2022-23: 1.03 (1 point)*
*After 41 games
HockeyBasedNYC
Feeling it
You nailed it.
Cant trade this guy for all of the reasons you stated above. Also, If the true value of him isn't really seen around the league, then you are selling too low on him anyway.
I also think he should shoot more and we will see that come with time.
Right now he has 71 SOG which is 7th on the team.
His shooting percentage is 6th at 12.7% (tied with Mika)
His 1.73 shots per game is 9th on the team. It would be good if he got closer to 2, where Chytil is. He is shooting everything and its resulting in more production.
Rongomania
Registered User
Literally f*cking came here to post this. Dead.
@Amazing Kreiderman thanks as always brother, my favorite part time legendary NYR beat reporter!
*
Edit:
Not only would he have plenty more points overall and swag - so would Laffy on PP1. Also, Kak has been getting straight robbed by bad luck since the PO's and the whole league has seen it.
Kak + prime PP1 time right now (not, 'oh but he got plenty of pp minutes in 2020' Yeah, holds no bearing on the man he is now) + him breaking through with all the bad luck he's had 5v5 , I am sorry, but that sure sounds like a superstar in the making.
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The most interesting stat for me in relation to Kakko is IPP (individual points percentage) which measures what percent of the goals scored while the player is on the ice the player got a point on. Last year I saw that the average for a forward was around 65%. Kakko has averaged well below that for his career, having only last year hit 65 (nearly exactly at 65.22%).
Just for fun I was comparing Kakkos age 21 season (this year) to some of the more prominent Finnish stars in the league (Rantanen, Barkov, Aho, Hintz, and Laine). And it was intriguing to see how closely nestled he is with the rest of them in the majority of 5v5 stats. Unsurprisingly, he fares better with "play driving" stats like xG, and not as well with scoring rates and actual goals. Maybe unsurprisingly, each of those players had significantly higher IPPs in those years. This year Kakko's IPP sits at 55.56%.
IPP like SH% is often glanced at to spot outliers, and just like that stat, doesn't tell us the actual cause of it's distribution. It could be the case that Kakko is just worse at getting points than the average player. But I don't think that's likely to bear out. There's yet to be a stretch of Kakko's career where the IPP and On Ice Sh% are high at the same time, but then Kakko's never spent even 50% of one season's 5v5 time with a single teammate and only this season has done so with two linemates. By comparison, those other Finns in their age 21 seasons had the following splits:
| Player (Age 21 Season) | IPP | On Ice Sh% (Player) | On Ice xGF/60 | On Ice xGF Relative to Team | Most Common Teammate (5v5 Time %) | Most Common Line (5v5 Time %) |
| Barkov | 75.61% | 8.56 | 2.42 | .13 | Jagr (88%) | Barkov-Jagr-Huberdeau (43%) |
| Aho | 63.49% | 8.56 | 3.31 | .25 | Teravainen (49.92%) | Aho-Williams-Neiderreiter (48%) |
| Rantanen | 72.41% | 8.06 | 2.53 | .12 | MacKinnon (85%) | Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog (93%) |
| Laine | 66.04% | 10.58 | 2.23 | .03 | Scheifele (73%) | Laine-Scheifele-Connor (74%) |
| Hintz | 68.42% | 5.82 | 2.31 | -.07 | Radulov (34%) | Hintz-Radulov-Seguin (46%) |
| Kakko | 55.56% | 8.56 | 2.78 | .12 | Zibanejad (47%) | Kakko-Zibanejad-Kreider (50%) |
Of course, there aren't any hard-line truths to glean here, but considering how Kakko fares relative to these players at the same age in driving xGF and even in the rate that shots are going in when he's on the ice, he comes out not quite fitting the bill of a player hurting his team's finishing ability, but certainly one struggling to get in on the scoring. Kakko himself has been an efficient shooter this season, scoring nearly in line with his own xG rate and shooting just a bit over his usual range at 11%. I include the linemate piece because it's a personal hypothesis that this has something to do with his IPP. Having mostly inconsistent linemates, until this season (and still not consistent to the scale of Rantanen, Barkov, or Laine), may be impacting the amount of points Kakko's been able to get in on. It's just a guess that none of these numbers will verify, but it's worth noting that the line of Kakko-Zibanejad Kreider has shot under 7% as a line across two seasons (this year at 6.95%). I find Hintz's example here adds to this picture as well since he did not "break out" as a 21 year old.
TLDR; hard to summarize, but I spent some hours today avoiding emails to compare Kakko's 21y/o season to other star Finns. Found that he compares well in most everything except points, IPP, and (withe exceptions) linemate consistency. The real TLDR might be, leave Kakko where he is and I suspect that line will start scoring more often and Kakko will be getting points on a larger share of those goals, and by the end of the season, could conceivably compare even more favorably against his higher-profile comparisons here.
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