Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko: Part IV

[huerter]

That is not what I said.

Sometimes a kid needs time to play a way the coach wants.

Why didn’t Kakko play on the top PP unit over Strome?

Because one of those guys has good vision and good/quick decision making (and experience) and the other is best known for a creepy cult following wearing pope hats. Ask the other 4 guys who they would rather have in that spot.

 

[Thirty One]

That is not what I said.

Sometimes a kid needs time to play a way the coach wants.

Why didn’t Kakko play on the top PP unit over Strome?

Good question. Very simple answer. PP1 clicked with Strome on it and Quinn, like every other NHL coach, valued results.

Zibanejad was PP1 almost the full year. Zibanejad on the ice with Strome at 5-on-4 produced 10.37 GF/60. Without Strome it was 4.97.

Coaches of 15 year olds don't ignore results the way this board wants an NHL team to.

 

[Ola]

Good question. Very simple answer. PP1 clicked with Strome on it and Quinn, like every other NHL coach, valued results.

Zibanejad was PP1 almost the full year. Zibanejad on the ice with Strome at 5-on-4 produced 10.37 GF/60. Without Strome it was 4.97.

Coaches of 15 year olds don't ignore results the way this board wants an NHL team to.

This would have made sense, if it weren’t for the fact that our PP was like 27th in the league after 30 games…

 

[SA16]

This would have made sense, if it weren’t for the fact that our PP was like 27th in the league after 30 games…

Or there is no need to make changes after small sample results? Conversely our PP was the third best in the league the last 2 months. Looks like he made a good decision to stick with it.

Here's a lazily made poor graph.
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The X axis is PP% up to March 19. The Y axis is PP% after March 19. Appears that there is near zero correlation.

 

[Ola]

Or there is no need to make changes after small sample results? Conversely our PP was the third best in the league the last 2 months. Looks like he made a good decision to stick with it.

Is 20-30 games (I am not sure exactly how many games had been played, but our PP was 27th or 28th long into the season) a small sample size??

 

[SA16]

Is 20-30 games (I am not sure exactly how many games had been played, but our PP was 27th or 28th long into the season) a small sample size??

Yes. People always do this. Why is 20-30 games a reasonable sample size? Because it's half the season and feels like it is? It's not. It may be reasonable for something with high volume like shot attempts but certainly is not for something more scarce with tons of variance like goals.

 

[Ola]

JMHO, but I think you give a top 2 pick a shot to play instead of giving a vet that isn’t even that good 30 games to prove himself.

 

[molotce]

Is 20-30 games (I am not sure exactly how many games had been played, but our PP was 27th or 28th long into the season) a small sample size??

30 games can also be called the majority of this past season so there's that.
Anyways to go back on kakko i still cant wait for an update on his training, his focus and any news

 

[Harbour Dog]

Of Rangers that played at least 10 games:

CF% - 1st
FF% - 1st
SF% - 1st
xGF% - 1st
SCF% - 1st
HDCF% - 2nd (Gauthier)
PDO - 17th
GF% - 7th

All in just two total minutes less than Panarin (at even strength).

Another summer of growth and focused training, and he is going to be a f***ing monster next season. An extra half-step coming out of corners, an extra moment of freedom in open space, an extra bit of steam on the shot.

 

[Rongomania]

Of Rangers that played at least 10 games:

CF% - 1st
FF% - 1st
SF% - 1st
xGF% - 1st
SCF% - 1st
HDCF% - 2nd (Gauthier)
PDO - 17th
GF% - 7th

All in just two total minutes less than Panarin (at even strength).

Another summer of growth and focused training, and he is going to be a f***ing monster next season. An extra half-step coming out of corners, an extra moment of freedom in open space, an extra bit of steam on the shot.

Cannot f*cking wait.

 

[Thirty One]

This would have made sense, if it weren’t for the fact that our PP was like 27th in the league after 30 games…

Through 30 games at 5-on-4:
Zibanejad with Strome: 8.75 GF/60
Zibanejad without Strome: 6.11 GF/60
Neither on the ice: 1.32 GF/60

Now that shows the first unit wasn't killing it, but the real anchor on the the PP% was the second. Now they had an option at that point: keep the unit together and hope they find another gear, or give someone from the unit that's floundering a promotion.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Of Rangers that played at least 10 games:

CF% - 1st
FF% - 1st
SF% - 1st
xGF% - 1st
SCF% - 1st
HDCF% - 2nd (Gauthier)
PDO - 17th
GF% - 7th

All in just two total minutes less than Panarin (at even strength).

Another summer of growth and focused training, and he is going to be a f***ing monster next season. An extra half-step coming out of corners, an extra moment of freedom in open space, an extra bit of steam on the shot.

Wait so Kakko was 1st on our team in all those categories?

 

[MysticLeviathan]

Of Rangers that played at least 10 games:

CF% - 1st
FF% - 1st
SF% - 1st
xGF% - 1st
SCF% - 1st
HDCF% - 2nd (Gauthier)
PDO - 17th
GF% - 7th

All in just two total minutes less than Panarin (at even strength).

Another summer of growth and focused training, and he is going to be a f***ing monster next season. An extra half-step coming out of corners, an extra moment of freedom in open space, an extra bit of steam on the shot.

I have no idea what half of those are, but it looks good.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I have no idea what half of those are, but it looks good.

Those stats look great but saying he did it with less time than Panarin is meaningless since those stats are percentage based.
So to me I’d be looking at who both played against.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Those stats look great but saying he did it with less time than Panarin is meaningless since those stats are percentage based.
So to me I’d be looking at who both played against.

I meant that he played nearly as many minutes as Panarin did. He never put up wacky percentages in much less minutes (like Gauthier, to a degree).

I would guess his QoC was lower, yeah, but he demolished the opponents he faced; deserves to get a shot at the bigger guys.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Wait so Kakko was 1st on our team in all those categories?

Yup. And that includes defensemen.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I have no idea what half of those are, but it looks good.

To be fair, CF, FF, SF and all very similar.

CF being shot attempts, FF being shot attempts that don't get blocked before they get to the net (shots that go wide would still count), and SF being shots that hit the net.

 

[Ola]

Yes. People always do this. Why is 20-30 games a reasonable sample size? Because it's half the season and feels like it is? It's not. It may be reasonable for something with high volume like shot attempts but certainly is not for something more scarce with tons of variance like goals.

I get what you mean and agree in general, but the question here is why Strome played over Kakko on the No 1 PP unit.

The argument was made that the No 1 PP unit hit it of so DQ never had any reason to give a seasoned 2nd overall pick a shot on it. In this context, it’s definitely looooong to give a unit that is struggling tremendously 20-30 games. Right?

Also, re the with and without data. Help me out here. If two players is on the same unit, line or whatever — aren’t “with and without” stats to a large degree going to show what happen when line changes are taking place? What is Ziba’s stats on the PP when he is left on the ice while one of his linemates have changed? Sounds to me that I would like to analyze those situations very deeply and understand what situations are referred to before reading anything into them.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Found this earlier. Kakko is back in Turku, in case anyone was wondering. I expect him and Georgiev to start their off-season training soon. Not sure if it'll be the same rink but I expect Reunanen and some other TPS players to be there as well like last summer

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

Found this earlier. Kakko is back in Turku, in case anyone was wondering. I expect him and Georgiev to start their off-season training soon. Not sure if it'll be the same rink but I expect Reunanen and some other TPS players to be there as well like last summer

Can we get - and I know this might be a little too much - a Lauri Pajuniemi sighting out of this?

 

[SA16]

I get what you mean and agree in general, but the question here is why Strome played over Kakko on the No 1 PP unit.

The argument was made that the No 1 PP unit hit it of so DQ never had any reason to give a seasoned 2nd overall pick a shot on it. In this context, it’s definitely looooong to give a unit that is struggling tremendously 20-30 games. Right?

Also, re the with and without data. Help me out here. If two players is on the same unit, line or whatever — aren’t “with and without” stats to a large degree going to show what happen when line changes are taking place? What is Ziba’s stats on the PP when he is left on the ice while one of his linemates have changed? Sounds to me that I would like to analyze those situations very deeply and understand what situations are referred to before reading anything into them.

it’s because strome was on that unit the year before and it performed like one of the best units in the league so quinn stuck with it

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Can we get - and I know this might be a little too much - a Lauri Pajuniemi sighting out of this?

Hopefully he joins them for practice

 

[Thirty One]

Also, re the with and without data. Help me out here. If two players is on the same unit, line or whatever — aren’t “with and without” stats to a large degree going to show what happen when line changes are taking place?

No.

First half of the year, Strome was on for 69.3% of Zibanejad's 5-on-4 ice. Second half of the year, it was 92.4%. They didn't cut down their partial line changes by a factor of four. The difference is the they gave a lot of different looks on the first unit early in the year, a lot of them without Strome.

 

[Synergy27]

It’s pretty clear to me that PP1 played so much for two reasons:

1. They were good. Simple.

2. The stars demanded it and both didn’t respect the coach or the kids/2nd unit. The inmates were running the asylum, they decided that they were playing the entirety of most PPs.

I have no problem with the PP1 getting lots of usage, even them starting after drawing the penalty. It’s the fact that they played the entire two minutes, or at least most of the actual valuable portion of the two minutes far too often.

 

[SA16]

It’s pretty clear to me that PP1 played so much for two reasons:

1. They were good. Simple.

2. The stars demanded it and both didn’t respect the coach or the kids/2nd unit. The inmates were running the asylum, they decided that they were playing the entirety of most PPs.

I have no problem with the PP1 getting lots of usage, even them starting after drawing the penalty. It’s the fact that they played the entire two minutes, or at least most of the actual valuable portion of the two minutes far too often.

I posted these stats earlier in the year. It's simply not true that the Rangers PP1 played a significantly higher percentage than PP1s around the league. They were above average but by no means wildly above average. Many teams do it. Just you don't notice it because you don't watch them for 82 games.

Of the 31 teams the Rangers ranked 8th in the league at 67.1% of their PP time belonging to PP1. The league median was 63.9% and 9 teams were between 64 and 70%. They had 278 PP mins so the difference between their usage and league median usage comes out to a total of 9 minutes on the season.

Their usage was basically in line with most teams that do not run split units. The true extremes are Edmonton (87%), Florida (76%), Vancouver (76%), Washington (74%) on the high end and then Detroit (53%), Arizona (53%), Philadelphia (53%), Montreal (53%), and Anaheim (51%) on the low end.]

Their is also a pretty direct correlation between PP1 TOI % and PP%. In fact of the 11 teams with PP1 usage below 60% Arizona is the only one who had an above average PP% on the year. Conversely every single team above 65% (13 teams) with the exception of Vancouver had an above average PP% on the year (and Toronto who was dead average).

I would honestly not play the PP2 ever unless the game is out of hand (in either direction), the PP1 players were just on the ice and need a breather, or it's a 4+ min powerplay. That is, of course, not to say you can't mix up the personnel of who is on PP1 at times or even within a game.