Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko: Part IV

[bondra]

As a Finn Kakko's situation is kind of opposite of Laine. Laine is scoring but thats about it.

Kakko in other hand does everything right on the ice and has been pretty much best player of the Rangers by advanced stats. He doesnt look bad at all but scoring isnt there.

Somebody above suggested trading Kakko, thats always one solution but when I watch Rangers play, Kakko and his poor stats are smallest problem Rangers have.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

As a Finn Kakko's situation is kind of opposite of Laine. Laine is scoring but thats about it.

Kakko in other hand does everything right on the ice and has been pretty much best player of the Rangers by advanced stats. He doesnt look bad at all but scoring isnt there.

Somebody above suggested trading Kakko, thats always one solution, but when I watch Rangers play Kakko and his poor stats are smallest problem Rangers have.

Fans want to see goals. I get it. Ultimately that is what it's all about. But this isn't a 27 year old player we pay 10m a year. This is his 2nd season and, as you said, he is among the best players on this team every game.

Underlying numbers look good. Those numbers matter. I rather have this than a Brandon Pirri-type.

 

[Zub]

A week ago everyone was raving of how he's playing now all the sudden some of you want him traded already, jeez.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I'm the biggest advocate of advanced metrics in the world but he has the worst PPG among every single 2nd overall pick in their sophomore season in the last 20 YEARS.

Who cares. He has played 84 NHL games.

If he was playing the same as he did last year that would be at least something to go on to be concerned, but he looks like a completely different player this season, so much improvement.

It’s like some people dont even watch games and just look on hockeydb.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Doesn't matter. It's clear Kakko is the most naturally gifted Ranger behind only, maybe Panarin and Laf, and Panarin is a fully mature player at the peak of his abilities. What matters is that he keeps developing over the next few years. The development staff seems to be doing a good job, but Quinn is not helping (rather the opposite) with lack of knowledge of advanced systems and tactics. Fire Quinn and let Martin take over for now. Kakko and Laf et al are too important for the Rangers to allow them to be stunted by a college coach.

Kakko can't even get himself to the middle of the ice and he has no vision. He's a complete perimeter player. I'm just sick of the excuses. Guys who were advertised to be NHL ready producers, which Kakko was, and he hardly creates anything dangerous, just stickhandles and shoots everything from the boards. I want Quinn fired too but I have a hard time believing he is just the entire reason Kakko can't do shit offensively.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Who cares. He has played 84 NHL games.

If he was playing the same as he did last year that would be at least something to go on to be concerned, but he looks like a completely different player this season, so much improvement.

It’s like some people dont even watch games and just look on hockeydb.

I've watched every single game this season buddy. I'm glad about the improvements he's made and the underlying numbers look solid but the guy can't even create separation from a defender in transition. Just because he's played only a certain amount of games doesn't mean you can't see a trajectory. These players don't have forever to develop and you need to expect some production from a top 2 pick. Simple as that. Or else they wouldn't be a top draft pick.

 

[bondra]

I've watched every single game this season buddy. I'm glad about the improvements he's made and the underlying numbers look solid but the guy can't even create separation from a defender in transition. Just because he's played only a certain amount of games doesn't mean you can't see a trajectory. These players don't have forever to develop and you need to expect some production from a top 2 pick. Simple as that. Or else they wouldn't be a top draft pick.

You claimed that Laf has bad puck luck which metrics shows, how about Kakko? I mean Kakko's advanced stats are much better than Laf's.

With young players important thing is how they develop and improve.

He has become more active in the offence. Kakko’s increased aggressiveness on the puck has allowed him to generate chances from the slot rather than sticking to the perimeter as he used to.

Defensively, Kakko has been unrecognizable (in a good way). His newfound awareness has resulted in very good defensive contributions on his part. He has been a force to be reckoned with off the puck, constantly forcing turnovers and initiating pressure to create opportunities on the rush. He has been winning more puck battles down low and preventing chances for the opposition. There are notable improvements in all RAPM categories, where Kakko is now a net-positive player.

Soon enough, as Kakko continues to develop in the top-six, the Rangers will have their hands on an elite group of youngsters with the potential to do some serious damage around the league.

 

[rdhstlr23]

As a Finn Kakko's situation is kind of opposite of Laine. Laine is scoring but thats about it.

Kakko in other hand does everything right on the ice and has been pretty much best player of the Rangers by advanced stats. He doesnt look bad at all but scoring isnt there.

Somebody above suggested trading Kakko, thats always one solution but when I watch Rangers play, Kakko and his poor stats are smallest problem Rangers have.

I suggested trading Kakko, but ONLY for someone of Jack Eichel’s ilk. I’m not trying to trade Kaapo Kakko. I think he will wind up being a good player, not a great one.

Because we have such depth at winger, deciding who the best ones are is REALLY important. That’s where we are going to dip into as we try and upgrade the C position. LaFreniere, Kakko, Kravtsov, Buchnevich aren’t all going to be stars. Hell, none of them maybe.

It’s imperative that Gorton correctly self scouts these guys as we continue to improve the team.

 

[Peltz]

Kakko has improved a lot. Still, he has some ways to go. He wants to cycle and he wants to play a puck possession game. But he isn't quite there yet in terms of being able to shed people and make that next play after holding the puck a bit and throwing bad angle/prayer shots or passes.

It’s true. He may be able to play that game if he grows a bit more physically though. It’s hard to put on muscle for some kids at 20. It’s amazing to think what another 2-3 years may do for him.

 

[tailgunner]

still early but so far he is a huge huge bust
2 goals and 2 assists in 18 games this year ouch

 

[Peltz]

If Kravtsov lights things on fire when he comes over, there has to real consideration that it’s Kakko going in an Eichel trade, and not Kravtsov.

I think that would be a huge mistake. I do not want that Eichel contract on our books. It would be brutal to try and build a team around him.

 

[True Blue]

I mean...just do a little research dude. Some of those guys did come into the league at 18.

And I don’t know how many times it has to be said, but comparing the comeuppance of centers and wingers is a poor way of looking at things.

If you want to look at the points I’m making, I’m comparing wingers vs wingers.

Some does not mean all. Which is why I said "How many". One size does not fit all. I have seen enough growth in his game not to be worried.

 

[rdhstlr23]

Some does not mean all. Which is why I said "How many". One size does not fit all. I have seen enough growth in his game not to be worried.

I think you’re misconstruing multiple debates you’re having with people. You didn’t say anything about “how many”

Here was your original reply to my post.

I am sure that players like Barkov, Thorton and Marke Messier are not elite either. Did all of the players that you name enter the league at 18? Then played the sophomore year in circumstances like what has happened in the pandemic?

You replied to my response here.

Again, in my original post, I included the top wingers today. Many of them took off a young age, like Kakko. All of them, are producing significantly better ppg than he is.

 

[WojtekWolski86]

A week ago everyone was raving of how he's playing now all the sudden some of you want him traded already, jeez.

Everyone sees the shiny new sports car in Eichel available and they are ready to sell every animal on the farm. Trading for Eichel is the equivalent of an 18 yr old with their first steady job buying a brand new Mustang and having to eat noodles and McD's because they didn't take into account other cost factors like gas and insurance.

 

[rdhstlr23]

I think that would be a huge mistake. I do not want that Eichel contract on our books. It would be brutal to try and build a team around him.

We are going to agree to disagree there.

 

[True Blue]

I think you’re misconstruing multiple debates you’re having with people. You didn’t say anything about “how many”

Here was your original reply to my post.




You replied to my response here.

Again, in my original post, I included the top wingers today. Many of them took off a young age, like Kakko. All of them, are producing significantly better ppg than he is.

I see. Again, there are notable players that did not produce early. A 19 year old that is playing very well and is just a victim of the puck not going in, but otherwise does not appear like the game is too much for him is just simply not a worry for me. Not at this point.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I love Kakko and I really want to see him succeed. I think he's done some really great things with and without the puck.

He is very young and there is a lot of time for him to develop further, but man - I feel the pain of other fans, I do.

I just wish we didn't have this issue because its a constant debate as to whether its the coach & system, the circumstance, his skillset or lack thereof and the patience we all have and need for it all.

I cant say this is a "Ranger problem" because we've been fortunate with other young players not needing the debate. But the questions swirling around our top 1 & 2 draft picks for the first time in history makes it easy to fall into the frustrating "why us?" mentality.

All I know is we will all have to wait and see. It would be nice if he were like a Fox and we wouldnt even have to think about it and just enjoy watching him dominate. That's life!

 

[The New Russian Five]

Kakko is playing good hockey. I will start to worry about Kakko when our team is scoring and Kakko isn't. When he is the exception. Kakko's underlying numbers this season have been really good and that's a good reason to stay positive.

Yes, I wish he had some more goals but on this team, where we have a coach who sucks the creativity out of the team, I can't really blame a 20 year old winger for not scoring. This team is ranked 26th in the league in goals at even strength.

I think next year is a bit of a make ore break year for him. Underlying stats are great, but if he's not getting on the scoreboard, eventually that's going to be a problem. If he can be a 20-20 player next year, I will stay optimistic. But if we get more of this great underlying stats without any actual points, then you have to wonder if the kid's ceiling isn't all that high.

 

[The New Russian Five]

A week ago everyone was raving of how he's playing now all the sudden some of you want him traded already, jeez.

He's still playing well, but eventually it has to start translating to points. I'm still patient with him, but how long should we be patient for? As I had just mentioned, I want to see what he looks like next season, when the team should be a bit better, managed under a different coach, and he gets one more year of development. The one silver lining is that you can totally tell Kakko is not happy about this. He worked his butt off last off-season, and his attitude strikes me that he will do it again this off-season.

 

[Synergy27]

I see. Again, there are notable players that did not produce early. A 19 year old that is playing very well and is just a victim of the puck not going in, but otherwise does not appear like the game is too much for him is just simply not a worry for me. Not at this point.

I think a good way to frame this debate might be to ask you to elaborate on your expectations for Kakko (and separately Laf). That's where the disconnect seems to be.

From my POV, based on the performance of most 1 and 2OA draft picks in recent years, I expected both players to be around 0.5PPG from day one and to be nearing the PPG mark by year 3 or 4. I thought that this would be reasonable to achieve given that they can play relatively sheltered minutes given the star power they are slotting in under. I expected both players to regularly be making plays that make me say "wow - not many guys in the league can do that" while also making many defensive mistakes and ill-advised passes/stickhandles/etc. I was not and am not expecting Crosby/McDavid/Mackinnon type of production from these guys, but I am expecting them to be amongst the top 25 or so scorers when fully developed. I am personally going to be disappointed if either of them end up topping out as 50-60 point players (0.66PPG).

I concede that COVID is a major mitigating factor. I need to adjust my expectations because of it. But if my baseline was say 0.5PPG, what's a reasonable adjustment? 0.25PPG? 0.15? Should I just completely ignore points because these circumstances are really that unprecedented?

Your answer to the last question might be yes, and you feel OK in that assessment because you believe in the underlying advanced metrics. But even if that's the case, I think we need a common benchmark that can be agreed upon in order for these conversations to mean anything. If we simply have different ultimate expectations for these players it's not even worth arguing over.

 

[rdhstlr23]

I love Kakko and I really want to see him succeed. I think he's done some really great things with and without the puck.

He is very young and there is a lot of time for him to develop further, but man - I feel the pain of other fans, I do.

I just wish we didn't have this issue because its a constant debate as to whether its the coach & system, the circumstance, his skillset or lack thereof and the patience we all have and need for it all.

I cant say this is a "Ranger problem" because we've been fortunate with other young players not needing the debate. But the questions swirling around our top 1 & 2 draft picks for the first time in history makes it easy to fall into the frustrating "why us?" mentality.

All I know is we will all have to wait and see. It would be nice if he were like a Fox and we wouldnt even have to think about it and just enjoy watching him dominate. That's life!

I agree. I love Kakko. And that’s half my problem. I had big expectations for him (same with LaFreniere).

The one thing people aren’t considering is how this can affect his confidence. He’s being told he’s doing all the right things, yet he isn’t seeing any results. Those results are what he’s going to be judged by, fair or not.

I hope he sticks with it. I hope he can have a nice game here soon and start to build off that.

 

[rdhstlr23]

I think a good way to frame this debate might be to ask you to elaborate on your expectations for Kakko (and separately Laf). That's where the disconnect seems to be.

From my POV, based on the performance of most 1 and 2OA draft picks in recent years, I expected both players to be around 0.5PPG from day one and to be nearing the PPG mark by year 3 or 4. I thought that this would be reasonable to achieve given that they can play relatively sheltered minutes given the star power they are slotting in under. I expected both players to regularly be making plays that make me say "wow - not many guys in the league can do that" while also making many defensive mistakes and ill-advised passes/stickhandles/etc. I was not and am not expecting Crosby/McDavid/Mackinnon type of production from these guys, but I am expecting them to be amongst the top 25 or so scorers when fully developed. I am personally going to be disappointed if either of them end up topping out as 50-60 point players (0.66PPG).

I concede that COVID is a major mitigating factor. I need to adjust my expectations because of it. But if my baseline was say 0.5PPG, what's a reasonable adjustment? 0.25PPG? 0.15? Should I just completely ignore points because these circumstances are really that unprecedented?

Your answer to the last question might be yes, and you feel OK in that assessment because you believe in the underlying advanced metrics. But even if that's the case, I think we need a common benchmark that can be agreed upon in order for these conversations to mean anything. If we simply have different ultimate expectations for these players it's not even worth arguing over.

Well put. I think a lot of people aren’t considering expectations here. Maybe some didn’t expect Kakko to really take off until YR3. That’s fair. However, that’s definitely NOT what we were sold by pre-draft reporting.

 

[rdhstlr23]

I think next year is a bit of a make ore break year for him. Underlying stats are great, but if he's not getting on the scoreboard, eventually that's going to be a problem. If he can be a 20-20 player next year, I will stay optimistic. But if we get more of this great underlying stats without any actual points, then you have to wonder if the kid's ceiling isn't all that high.

I think that’s totally fair. I’m willing to give him another year before I really start worrying about him.

At this point, I do not expect him to be a star. I expect hill to be a good hockey player scoring 60pts/season. So, when I watch him next year, my expectation will be that he starts to be a secondary producer of points for this team.

What makes this all the more trickier though? Jack Eichel seems like a real possibility. And the price is going to hurt. That’s what it takes for great players, especially where we have a glaring need.

So, we may not be able to wait for a 3rd year with Kakko. It’s very important he start to produce on some level. He’s going to be part of those discussions. As of now, he’s untouchable, though I don’t think he should be.

 

[True Blue]

I think a good way to frame this debate might be to ask you to elaborate on your expectations for Kakko (and separately Laf). That's where the disconnect seems to be.

From my POV, based on the performance of most 1 and 2OA draft picks in recent years, I expected both players to be around 0.5PPG from day one and to be nearing the PPG mark by year 3 or 4. I thought that this would be reasonable to achieve given that they can play relatively sheltered minutes given the star power they are slotting in under. I expected both players to regularly be making plays that make me say "wow - not many guys in the league can do that" while also making many defensive mistakes and ill-advised passes/stickhandles/etc. I was not and am not expecting Crosby/McDavid/Mackinnon type of production from these guys, but I am expecting them to be amongst the top 25 or so scorers when fully developed. I am personally going to be disappointed if either of them end up topping out as 50-60 point players (0.66PPG).

I concede that COVID is a major mitigating factor. I need to adjust my expectations because of it. But if my baseline was say 0.5PPG, what's a reasonable adjustment? 0.25PPG? 0.15? Should I just completely ignore points because these circumstances are really that unprecedented?

Your answer to the last question might be yes, and you feel OK in that assessment because you believe in the underlying advanced metrics. But even if that's the case, I think we need a common benchmark that can be agreed upon in order for these conversations to mean anything. If we simply have different ultimate expectations for these players it's not even worth arguing over.

Depends we define expectations. I was not one that was penciling in kakko for 50 points. His performance last year was not a shock to me. This year, I expected improved play. We have vastly improved play and very little points> Both the eye test and the metrics tell you that he should have more points. The game is not too big for him. So do I want more points? Sure. But they are not an all an indicator of what is happening.

I will tell you that if you thought that Lafreniere would be at your expectations, I would tell you to put the crack pipe down. He dominated the Q. But was also older than a lot of the kids there. That led him to mask his issues and to run roughshod over the league. THEN he wound up not only not playing hockey for 10 months but his practice was limited to a friggin' back yard rink. I mean come one. Think that will not affect a 19 year old? His metrics and expected goals tell you that he should have a lot more points He has setup the vets with some gorgeous plays. So to me, given the pandemic issues, no his on ice play is about what I expected. The only difference is the points put up.

 

[Peltz]

He's still playing well, but eventually it has to start translating to points. I'm still patient with him, but how long should we be patient for? As I had just mentioned, I want to see what he looks like next season, when the team should be a bit better, managed under a different coach, and he gets one more year of development. The one silver lining is that you can totally tell Kakko is not happy about this. He worked his butt off last off-season, and his attitude strikes me that he will do it again this off-season.

I understand this frustration.

But you also have to agree - he's improved tremendously over the last year. He's clearly trending in the right direction. He just needs to continue that trend and the points will come.

The entire team has struggled to finish this year. It's not unique to Kakko. It feels more systemic team-wide than an individual failing on his part.