Value of: Jvr

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Someone mentioned a Ladd comparison. For a couple of months of play Ladd cost the Hawks Dano and the 22 overall pick.

Surely JVR would be worth more than that on a nice 2 year deal. Still, I don't think JVR is going to be traded, he's about the only establishing scoring winger the Leafs have. Maybe at TDL in 2018 he could be traded and maybe get the same return as Ladd.

Some comments about Leaf fans wanting JVR to be traded. On these type of posts fans tend to trade all players for "futures". That is not rebuilding. I guess at the beginning of the season, we should decide who is going to win the Cup and then the other 29 teams trade players to the Cup winning team.

 

[jacks*]

Ok so...

Juulsen
2017 1st
De la Rose
DD

For

JVR

That's a more than fair offer.Leafs would jump at this.

 

[ThatSaid]

For JvR?

From Chicago:

Pokka
This year's first
Kruger
B Prospect of your choice.

For:

JvR

 

[34]

JVR will not be moved. No way.

 

[Dustin]

Good value comparison: Bobby Ryan in 2013

Ryan was 27, JVR is 27 now
Ryan had 2 years to UFA when he was traded, JVR has 2 year to UFA right now
Ryan is a big-bodied RW, JVR is a big-bodied LW
Ryan had a very similar PPG and GPG in 2012/13 as JVR in 2015/16
Ryan had a history of scoring 30 goals, JVR has had a pace of around 30 goals on a worse team with worse linemates
Ryan was a rather one-dimensional guy, JVR is a rather one-dimensional guy

If JVR was to be traded, I think he'd probably return a good young forward (eg. Silfverberg), good prospect (eg. Noesen) and a 1st round pick, just like Ryan. Although maybe GMs around the league are aware what a bad trade that was for the Sens and are unwilling to follow in their footsteps.

I don't know why Leafs fans are so eager to throw him around in trade proposals. Their forward group and all their forward prospects are small, JVR looks like he fills a big niche as a big power winger. Probably will be a great complement to Matthews/Nylander as well. Unless he's not willing to re-sign in Toronto long-term, don't understand why the Leafs would trade him.

I'm just going to throw this up again as we are now on the third page and this person summed it up perfectly on page one.

 

[bobg1]

I dont get why the leafs would want to trade him at all given his size, skill, age and contract.

I would not want to

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Probably not as much as leaf fans thinks he worth.

 

[BlueBaron]

Probably not as much as leaf fans thinks he worth.

Last few trade deadlines we have generally had a good idea of what our players are worth. Keep in mind worth is subjective. To us he is worth more than he would garner in a trade. He is also not really available.

 

[sansabri]

We're good for now with Lehkonen.

 

[gabeliscious]

That's a more than fair offer.Leafs would jump at this.

dlr and dd have no value to the leafs. they dont have roster spots for them. Juulsen and a 1st are good starting points.

either way these are not pieces that would excite me to move jvr with term on his deal.

 

[4thline]

For JvR?

From Chicago:

Pokka
This year's first
Kruger
B Prospect of your choice.

For:

JvR

Good offer, last year I would have been all over this. But right now Pokka would be in a dog fight with Carrick and Corrado on the right side. I'd want one of Forsling/Schmaltz/Motte

 

[ThatSaid]

Good offer, last year I would have been all over this. But right now Pokka would be in a dog fight with Carrick and Corrado on the right side. I'd want one of Forsling/Schmaltz/Motte

Too many holes to fill. Wouldn't be willing to move any of those three unless we keep Kruger and you retain on what is already a very good contract. Might be able to include Motte. It would be something like this.

Pokka
Motte
1st
B prospect

For:
JvR @ 50%

 

[93LEAFS]

Can we just sticky a JVR thread in the trade section? He has a thread with him involved on the 1st page almost every day since the Kessel trade. Just simplify it, have a stickied thread for all JVR talk.

 

[Liferleafer]

That's a more than fair offer.Leafs would jump at this.

Ah yes...we are just chomping at the bit to get DD and a late 1st....

Juulsen is about the best piece in that offer and none of them are top 4 RHD, so no thanks.

 

[91Fedorov]

Good value comparison: Bobby Ryan in 2013

Ryan was 27, JVR is 27 now
Ryan had 2 years to UFA when he was traded, JVR has 2 year to UFA right now
Ryan is a big-bodied RW, JVR is a big-bodied LW
Ryan had a very similar PPG and GPG in 2012/13 as JVR in 2015/16
Ryan had a history of scoring 30 goals, JVR has had a pace of around 30 goals on a worse team with worse linemates
Ryan was a rather one-dimensional guy, JVR is a rather one-dimensional guy

If JVR was to be traded, I think he'd probably return a good young forward (eg. Silfverberg), good prospect (eg. Noesen) and a 1st round pick, just like Ryan. Although maybe GMs around the league are aware what a bad trade that was for the Sens and are unwilling to follow in their footsteps.

I don't know why Leafs fans are so eager to throw him around in trade proposals. Their forward group and all their forward prospects are small, JVR looks like he fills a big niche as a big power winger. Probably will be a great complement to Matthews/Nylander as well. Unless he's not willing to re-sign in Toronto long-term, don't understand why the Leafs would trade him.

I think this is one big difference. Bobby Ryan was scoring 0.41 goals per game at the time of the trade. He had also actually scored 30 goals four seasons in a row. His best season was 35 goals. He also had a 0.80 PPG pace at that point.

JVR is scoring 0.30 goals per game. He scored 30 once, was on pace for 30 one other time , but that was it. His best season was 30 goals. JVR's PPG is 0.62.

It is a valid point that Ryan played for a better team. But he also very often got 2nd PP looks and played on the 2nd or 3rd line (RW behind Perry and Selanne). If he did get top line looks he had to do it out of position. JVR has been the best player getting the best opportunities for a while now.

JVR is a good player. But Ryan is not exactly a perfect comparable.

 

[Dustin]

I think this is one big difference. Bobby Ryan was scoring 0.41 goals per game at the time of the trade. He had also actually scored 30 goals four seasons in a row. His best season was 35 goals. He also had a 0.80 PPG pace at that point.

JVR is scoring 0.30 goals per game. He scored 30 once, was on pace for 30 one other time , but that was it. His best season was 30 goals. JVR's PPG is 0.62.

It is a valid point that Ryan played for a better team. But he also very often got 2nd PP looks and played on the 2nd or 3rd line (RW behind Perry and Selanne). If he did get top line looks he had to do it out of position. JVR has been the best player getting the best opportunities for a while now.

JVR is a good player. But Ryan is not exactly a perfect comparable.

Sure but there is never an exact comparable for players. I Think Bobby Ryan is the closest one. Again the poster even stated that the trade value may not be exact but the return is close to what the Leafs would be looking for.

 

[Kelly]

Personally I would rather keep JVR unless we can flip him for a similar caliber defenseman. A package of smaller assets really doesn't interest me.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

For JvR?

From Chicago:

Pokka
This year's first
Kruger
B Prospect of your choice.

For:

JvR

Well that beats my offer.

 

[4thline]

I think this is one big difference. Bobby Ryan was scoring 0.41 goals per game at the time of the trade. He had also actually scored 30 goals four seasons in a row. His best season was 35 goals. He also had a 0.80 PPG pace at that point.

JVR is scoring 0.30 goals per game. He scored 30 once, was on pace for 30 one other time , but that was it. His best season was 30 goals. JVR's PPG is 0.62.
.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it's based on the argument that value is based on past achievements, based on an entire career body of work. Which is an awfully good way to get ripped off as what you're getting is the current play from now projected x number of years into the future. Pay for the player you're getting, not what that player was.

Ryan's career Gpg/Ppg may have been 0.41 and 0.80. But he wasn't "scoring at" those rates at the time of the trade. In the three years prior he was at .36/.75. Two year average falls to .33/.68. JVR's rates in the same periods: .35/.72 and .34/.7. All the numbers you posted show us is that Ryan was better in his first couple years in the league, not that he was any better at the time of the trade.

 

[Balthazar]

Bobby Ryan was seen as a significantly better player with a higher upside back then than JVR now.

 

[Nithoniniel]

^pacing is different then actual production though because 1 means you have to play at the exact pace you were all year. Everyone has hot and cold streaks. I used to be a big JVR fan but he hasn't played as well the past 2 or 3 years. I was beyond disappointed in him with the WC stuff this summer.

JVR has produced at that rate the last 3 years. I'd assume as 3 year sample would include hot and cold streaks. Furthermore, there's nothing that suggests that his performance last season, the only one that had to use pace, wouldn't have continued the same way. He performed just in line with what he usually does in every metric, or better.

Furthermore, JVR hasn't been as good for the last 3 years? The year before he played exactly the same, and before that he was the disappointment that Philly gave up for Luke Schenn of all people.

You're not exactly making a solid argument here.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I'd actually like to see a deal with ANA for Montour/Fowler and Stoner. Not sure how it would work but something like Montour/Fowler, Stoner, player/prospect/pick for JVR, Polak/Hunwick.

 

[Maple Leaf]

JVR will not be moved. No way.

If the leafs are smart, they will move JVR for a defenseman

 

[dubplatepressure]

If the leafs are smart, they will move JVR for a defenseman

Does that mean I'm smart for suggesting it?

 

[tucker3434]

Good value comparison: Bobby Ryan in 2013

Ryan was 27, JVR is 27 now
Ryan had 2 years to UFA when he was traded, JVR has 2 year to UFA right now
Ryan is a big-bodied RW, JVR is a big-bodied LW
Ryan had a very similar PPG and GPG in 2012/13 as JVR in 2015/16
Ryan had a history of scoring 30 goals, JVR has had a pace of around 30 goals on a worse team with worse linemates
Ryan was a rather one-dimensional guy, JVR is a rather one-dimensional guy

If JVR was to be traded, I think he'd probably return a good young forward (eg. Silfverberg), good prospect (eg. Noesen) and a 1st round pick, just like Ryan. Although maybe GMs around the league are aware what a bad trade that was for the Sens and are unwilling to follow in their footsteps.

I don't know why Leafs fans are so eager to throw him around in trade proposals. Their forward group and all their forward prospects are small, JVR looks like he fills a big niche as a big power winger. Probably will be a great complement to Matthews/Nylander as well. Unless he's not willing to re-sign in Toronto long-term, don't understand why the Leafs would trade him.

Because he isn't going to be "the guy" in Toronto, but they'd have to pretty much pay him as one. You say teams may be wary of making the next Bobby Ryan trade. I think the leafs may be wary of signing the next Bobby Ryan contract.