JVR at the deadline

[Menzinger]

I've said it before in other threads. Basically my thought with him is he should get somewhere in the neighborhood of six or seven years at six or seven million per year. In dollars that means 36-49 million dollars over the life of the deal. If someone offers him 7*7, I'm not in that game. But if we can get him at 8 years at 5 or less that's in the 40 million range and likely takes him to retirement. If you front load the real money, he will be a tradeable asset in the years you would be worried about major decline. I would be happy to keep him under that scenario.

Problem becomes he'll be a young UFa and will have multiple suitors - have a hard time seeing him take a discount

 

[White Shadow]

we have no guaranteed 25-30 goal scorer with size and scoring touch. we have prospects. on lw we have komorov right now or leivo, hyman and martin.

that doesn't scream cup contender.

even if kapanen makes, which he will, there is no guarantee that his point total or injury free time will be the same as jvr.

i'd rather have

jvr
kapanen
grundstrom
leivo/komorov

on the right, you'd have

marner
korshov
timashov/bracco/
brown/lindberg/engvall

another top winger would be nice, or a d.

centres are set in the future with

matthews
nylander
kadri
gauther/brooks/komorov

Ummm, Matthews?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Problem becomes he'll be a young UFa and will have multiple suitors - have a hard time seeing him take a discount

we do have a little leverage, we can start negotiating this summer where he's got a whole year to play before UFA where he could get hurt or regress. Hard to see him taking a Kadri deal or anything but I could see 6x6 - looks like a flat cap this year so he shouldn't be expecting inflation from the Okposo/Ladd/Lucic deals from last summer

the term beyond 5 years is the concerning part to me, he'll be 29 at the start of his next contract and the averages show that there's a pretty significant chance of regression beyond 31/32, I'd roll those dice for a couple of years but not 3-4. He was slow to start this season with the foot still healing but still produced, so maybe that bodes well for him

Would be nice if he was made redundant by a prospect though

 

[indigobuffalo]

you'd have to ask yourself would you get more trading JVR now - vs at Draft/In the Summer.

The answer would have to be a most obvious yes to higher value at the TD.

JVR is on a very, very well priced cap hit.

That opens the doors to a lot of teams that may look to add a strong addition at the TD, but might be hamstrung otherwise due to cap issues.

Add to that the ample cap space the Leafs have to take a cap dump back the other way.

A team like Chicago could add JVR in exchange for Kruger and the Leafs could easily pilfer a couple top prospects like DeBrincat and Forsling.

Maybe Leafs add a bit but overall that's probably close to fair value.

 

[a a ron]

JVR for Shattenkirk straight up! Then resign JVR when he's ufa in a couple years

 

[Randy Randerson]

JVR for Shattenkirk straight up! Then resign JVR when he's ufa in a couple years

that's been floated around the trade boards, St. Louis' LW situation is a combination of: Steen/Schwartz/Fabbri/Barbashev/Upshall so JVR is really not at the top of their needs list at all, they need a center

 

[Steveei]

I wouldn't trade JVR period. Unless its for some crazy offer lopsided in our favor..... which isn't going to happen.

 

[White Shadow]

Personally, I put the chances as follows:

2017 TDL trade: 15% (Expansion draft will mitigate demand)
Summer trade: 65%
2018 TDL trade: 15% (Bad optics when holding a playoff spot)
Re-signed: 5% (money better spent on defense)

 

[BlueBaron]

Problem becomes he'll be a young UFa and will have multiple suitors - have a hard time seeing him take a discount

Yes a lot of fans struggle to see hockey players as anything more than money obsessed mercenaries despite endless evidence that many of them will compromise on money to be in a place they are happy or for a chance to win a cup, see Steve Stamkos.

Rielly and Kadri both signed favorable deals because they want to be here, and all indications are everyone on the team is this way. We are a first class organization now and everyone knows this. We are a team on the rise, also well known. We have a great city and some of the best young players in the game and one of the worlds best coaches.

I do not think it is all that hard to imagine him signing for 5 years at 6 mil which our pay structure can handle. Why everyone is so closed to this possibility is beyond me but I suspect it is grass is always greener syndrome.

I am not saying it is impossible he will want to cash in or play for a US city or go to a team closer to a Championship, but these things are far from certain and management will not know until July 1. Make more sense than just assuming the worst, July 1 if he does not want to extend at a price that makes sense, then you explore moving him. Trading him because your psychic predictions say he wants too much money is just daft.

 

[White Shadow]

Yes a lot of fans struggle to see hockey players as anything more than money obsessed mercenaries despite endless evidence that many of them will compromise on money to be in a place they are happy or for a chance to win a cup, see Steve Stamkos.

Rielly and Kadri both signs favorable deals because they want to be here, and all indications are everyone on the team is this way. We are a first class organization now and everyone knows this. We are a team on the rise, also well known. We have a great city and some of the best young players in the game and one of the worlds best coaches.

I do not think it is all that hard to imagine him signing for 5 years at 6 mil which our pay structure can handle. Why everyone is so closed to this possibility is beyond me but I suspect it is grass is always greener syndrome.

You make some great points and I think you are right about all the positive intangibles that come with playing in this market. Your positivity is great to see on here and hints and what is in the not too distant future. However, all three of your examples had different circumstances to what JVR will have.

I don't think anyone, Stamkos included, thought we would be this good, this fast. He re-signed in FLA where the tax laws made his dollars go a whole lot further than here. The difference in contracts would not have been very much at all when you look at how much goes in his pocket.

Both Rielly and Kadri re-signed in their RFA years. Their contracts are team friendly, but they know they still have at least one more big contract to sign in their careers. For JVR, this is his last chance to set his family up for the rest of their lives.

The good thing is, and this is one of the reasons I think JVR doesn't move thisTDL, we will have a chance to see what his expectations are before we need to make that decision.

 

[REGGIE DUNLOP77]

As a poster mention with so many teams in the playoff race the seller market is pretty bare,i think he would bring a better price at the deadline.

Thats if the leafs are interested in trading him and nobody knows that unless they are part of management.

 

[The CyNick]

Problem becomes he'll be a young UFa and will have multiple suitors - have a hard time seeing him take a discount

It's not really a discount though. In terms of total dollars, it's well within the range of what he will get in the open market. The difference is the term. He could sign a six year deal at 7 per, and get a couple million bucks, plus a chance to get another contract in years 7 and 8. But a 6*7 deal can work out badly for the player. If his production drops, he might be Lupul'd by a team. At 5 million, he's more likely to be a useable piece throughout the entire 8 year deal. Plus, you offer him as much real money up front as possible. It's better to have more money now, so that might make up the difference in the slightly less real dollars he would be getting under my deal.

 

[burpsalot]

I have zero interest in keeping a soft playing weak defensively forward that shows up about 20% of the season.

& signing him long term, no puck way.

Last year I thought he might be worth keeping but in his own end he looks like a defensive moron. I can't even imagine how a guy at his age that went through the US national development program could be so lost defensively. You could talk about his offensive game, when he shows up, but I still think his negatives are greater than the positives. I also wonder how invisible he would have been this year without Marner. I would stick Kapanen alongside Marner ahead of JVR any day. Ditto, Leivo & probably ditto Rychel. That's not even counting other potential future prospects like Grundstrom & Korshkov.

 

[The CyNick]

I have zero interest in keeping a soft playing weak defensively forward that shows up about 20% of the season.

& signing him long term, no puck way.

Last year I thought he might be worth keeping but in his own end he looks like a defensive moron. I can't even imagine how a guy at his age that went through the US national development program could be so lost defensively. You could talk about his offensive game, when he shows up, but I still think his negatives are greater than the positives. I also wonder how invisible he would have been this year without Marner. I would stick Kapanen alongside Marner ahead of JVR any day. Ditto, Leivo & probably ditto Rychel. That's not even counting other potential future prospects like Grundstrom & Korshkov.

Kapanen doesn't play the same type of game that JVR does. You need to replace him with a guy with some strength who plays in front of the net. If you put Kapanen on that line, it's likely a disaster. The others will likely take several years to make it to the big club.

 

[burpsalot]

Kapanen doesn't play the same type of game that JVR does. You need to replace him with a guy with some strength who plays in front of the net. If you put Kapanen on that line, it's likely a disaster. The others will likely take several years to make it to the big club

I know, Kapanen plays a more physical 200' game & is oozing with speed that could take advantage of Marners quick thinking play.

Leivo's ready now, Rychel next year. Korshkov & Grundstrom might be a few years, about the same time as wh n we should start making a legit run towards a Stanley Cup. No hope in hell this or next year.

 

[The CyNick]

I know, Kapanen plays a more physical 200' game & is oozing with speed that could take advantage of Marners quick thinking play.

Leivo's ready now, Rychel next year. Korshkov & Grundstrom might be a few years, about the same time as wh n we should start making a legit run towards a Stanley Cup. No hope in hell this or next year.

In the Atlantic, just getting in, gets you a shot at the third round. From there, who knows.

Good luck with those other guys you mentioned replacing JVR.

 

[burpsalot]

In the Atlantic, just getting in, gets you a shot at the third round. From there, who knows.

Good luck with those other guys you mentioned replacing JVR.

Plus, we will gain what we get back in the trade. Bonus.

Continue your "who knows" dream. That mindset hugely contributed to the Leafs ****** record over the years. The let's just make the playoffs & "who knows" isn't conducive to building a Stanley Cup dynasty & the funny part, was a big reason why Shanahan left Hartford to go to Detroit.

 

[The CyNick]

Plus, we will gain what we get back in the trade. Bonus.

Continue your "who knows" dream. That mindset hugely contributed to the Leafs ****** record over the years. The let's just make the playoffs & "who knows" isn't conducive to building a Stanley Cup dynasty & the funny part, was a big reason why Shanahan left Hartford to go to Detroit.

So you think the return for JVR will turn us into a Cup contender? Neat.

 

[Kiwi]

In the Atlantic, just getting in, gets you a shot at the third round. From there, who knows.

Good luck with those other guys you mentioned replacing JVR.

He's a point scorer sure but he's also a black hole defensively and only brings an effort when he feels like it
You can see why lots of people don't want to sink a large amount of cap on him for his next deal when we need to use every dollar we have to fix the D
Also we have much better 2way players ready to take his spot for a fraction of the cost

I'd happily take a little less offensive production for a much better defensive game and trading JVR achieves that in the long run

 

[burpsalot]

So you think the return for JVR will turn us into a Cup contender? Neat.

Did I ever say anything like that? No.

Continue your dreamland.

P.S. I don't think keeping JVR "will turn us into a Cup contender" either.

Super neat.

 

[The CyNick]

He's a point scorer sure but he's also a black hole defensively and only brings an effort when he feels like it
You can see why lots of people don't want to sink a large amount of cap on him for his next deal when we need to use every dollar we have to fix the D
Also we have much better 2way players ready to take his spot for a fraction of the cost

I'd happily take a little less offensive production for a much better defensive game and trading JVR achieves that in the long run

That's fine, but then recognize that other teams in the league are aware of his warts. That will limit the return you get for him. It definitely won't return a piece that will put us over the top. We won't need the cap space for two years, but even then, who are we acquiring at that time that will make us substantially better at D? I'm all for saying let's hope some young guy steps up and replaces JVR for cheap, that would be great. But if you trade him before that guy establishes himself, you leave a huge hole in the lineup. And on top of that, you could make the move, get limited assets in return, and never find that right guy to use JVRs saved money on. It's not easy to find to 4 D in the open market.

 

[The CyNick]

Did I ever say anything like that? No.

Continue your dreamland.

P.S. I don't think keeping JVR "will turn us into a Cup contender" either.

Super neat.

Yeah, you kinda did. You said we should be ready to make a run at the Cup when the guys you mentioned are ready to take JVRs spot, then you said plus the guys we get back for JVR.

As this thread has well documented, JVR has lots of holes in his game, so teams will take that into consideration with their offer. The most likely scenario is we get a Harrington level protect and possible a late 1st. A 1st is great, but in all likelihood won't help for about 4 years.

We don't have any other studs coming through the system. We have the big three young guys, who are already very good to elite players, but no other can't miss help is coming. There's reason to believe that if we were to add some help on the Blueline, we could compete for the next couple years. The problem is once the young guys get paid, we won't have the ability to add vets to the lineup to compliment the young guys. At that point we'll be in Chicago mode where we are constantly dumping good players and backfilling through the system, well we hope that's how it will work. But these next two years we could have the same team we have now, plus a few vets on D. You could have a scenario where a guy like Bozak's is our 4th line centre. But that window only lasts for two more years. That's why at the very least, I think we're better off overall to keep JVR and see what happens in the summer of 2018.

 

[Kiwi]

That's fine, but then recognize that other teams in the league are aware of his warts. That will limit the return you get for him. It definitely won't return a piece that will put us over the top. We won't need the cap space for two years, but even then, who are we acquiring at that time that will make us substantially better at D? I'm all for saying let's hope some young guy steps up and replaces JVR for cheap, that would be great. But if you trade him before that guy establishes himself, you leave a huge hole in the lineup. And on top of that, you could make the move, get limited assets in return, and never find that right guy to use JVRs saved money on. It's not easy to find to 4 D in the open market.

This team will score and I'm reasonably confident you can plug in a player on a line with Marner and you will get a reasonable amount of production
Not JVR production but reasonable and you would help shore that line up defensively if you put someone like Leivo or Kapanen on it

I'm less worried about JVR'S return and more worried about the cap implications he will create down the road when every resource we have should be going towards sorting out our defense

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes a lot of fans struggle to see hockey players as anything more than money obsessed mercenaries despite endless evidence that many of them will compromise on money to be in a place they are happy or for a chance to win a cup, see Steve Stamkos.

Rielly and Kadri both signed favorable deals because they want to be here, and all indications are everyone on the team is this way. We are a first class organization now and everyone knows this. We are a team on the rise, also well known. We have a great city and some of the best young players in the game and one of the worlds best coaches.

I do not think it is all that hard to imagine him signing for 5 years at 6 mil which our pay structure can handle. Why everyone is so closed to this possibility is beyond me but I suspect it is grass is always greener syndrome.

I am not saying it is impossible he will want to cash in or play for a US city or go to a team closer to a Championship, but these things are far from certain and management will not know until July 1. Make more sense than just assuming the worst, July 1 is he does not want to extend at a price that makes sense, then you explore moving him. Trading him because your psychic predictions say he wants too much money is just daft.

I've absolutely considered that and that's a very good point. I love the Rielly and Kadri deals partly for that reason, the precedent they set and the hope that others will follow. What I fear though is that it might be reasonable for JVR (or his agent) to think they could get a 6x7 deal in free agency and thus a 5x6 deal may be too much of a discount to hope for as it's probably his last big money contract and thus he might be more motivated to really make it count, more so than Kadri and certainly Rielly. You nailed the money IMO, I think if it was up to me, I'd draw the line somewhere around there, even 6x6 is too much of a risk IMO, would rather trade him for whatever we can get instead.

 

[The CyNick]

This team will score and I'm reasonably confident you can plug in a player on a line with Marner and you will get a reasonable amount of production
Not JVR production but reasonable and you would help shore that line up defensively if you put someone like Leivo or Kapanen on it

I'm less worried about JVR'S return and more worried about the cap implications he will create down the road when every resource we have should be going towards sorting out our defense

great strategy, but who are these D-men we will be spending money on down the road? Most likely, we will need to find help from within, so those guys will be on the cheap, just like the guys you expect to replace JVR.

Another option would be keep the guys like JVR and Bozak until their deals run out, sign some vets to short term deals, and hope that shores up the D enough to make a run for the next two years. Then after two years when we are more cap crunched, you hope you have seen the Marlies spit out a few viable pieces that can help the big club.

The trade JVR logic has to come with the idea that his return will yield a player that will help us in the next few years. I dont think that will be the case, because of the holes in JVR's game that guys like you use as reasoning to not keep him around long term.