Rumor: Juuse Saros Signs 8 Year / $7.74 AAV Contract

[Kat Predator]

The median starting/workload goalie gave up just under 3 GAA last year. Juuse is better than that. For round numbers, let's say he saves an additional goal 1 out of 3 games.

Elite goal scorers score roughly .75 goals per game. (Scoring goals isn't necessarily the right metric for a #1C anyway.) Some of the names at C that would balance the equation, returning 1 goal every 3 games, from last year are: Bergeron, Malkin, Eichel, PLD, Pavelski, Kopitar, Necas.

What are the chances of trading Saros for someone who plays centre and scores like, say, Kopitar?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The median starting/workload goalie gave up just under 3 GAA last year. Juuse is better than that. For round numbers, let's say he saves an additional goal 1 out of 3 games.

Elite goal scorers score roughly .75 goals per game. (Scoring goals isn't necessarily the right metric for a #1C anyway.) Some of the names at C that would balance the equation, returning 1 goal every 3 games, from last year are: Bergeron, Malkin, Eichel, PLD, Pavelski, Kopitar, Necas.

What are the chances of trading Saros for someone who plays centre and scores like, say, Kopitar?

I think such trades would be highly situational, right? You have to find a team that is bleeding in net, and at the same time has a top center who is maybe getting older/going UFA/disgruntled/can't-be-retained-for-some-reason/surplus/Cap-casualty... something that is probably quite an exceedingly rare market niche.

And then... we just signed ROR to be our Kopitar-ish guy. Finding an older/surplus/etc center isn't the thing we need. It's getting the young stud we'll have for 15 years. And that part is simply not going to happen. So we need to be keeping Saros.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

The median starting/workload goalie gave up just under 3 GAA last year. Juuse is better than that. For round numbers, let's say he saves an additional goal 1 out of 3 games.

Elite goal scorers score roughly .75 goals per game. (Scoring goals isn't necessarily the right metric for a #1C anyway.) Some of the names at C that would balance the equation, returning 1 goal every 3 games, from last year are: Bergeron, Malkin, Eichel, PLD, Pavelski, Kopitar, Necas.

What are the chances of trading Saros for someone who plays centre and scores like, say, Kopitar?

The chances of getting that player for Saros is zero. In fact, there probably isn't any asset we have that could fetch that level of player. At best we get something like the Ekholm deal and I even find that unlikely (Ekholm is older but was signed longer and plays a position that generally holds way more value than goalie).

 

[wmupreds]

Why would we trade for million year old Kopitar even if LAK would trade him

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Why would we trade for million year old Kopitar even if LAK would trade him

I don't think Kat was literally suggesting trading for Kopitar, more that the level of production needed to offset Saros' value to the team results in a very select caliber of player.

 

[Kat Predator]

I don't think Kat was literally suggesting trading for Kopitar, more that the level of production needed to offset Saros' value to the team results in a very select caliber of player.

Exactly. I'm not interested in Kopitar himself. Could be anybody with Kopitar-like production. The problem is there aren't very many of those guys period. Looking at the list, none of them are even available.

So you'd give up the advantage Saros gives a team in net (defense) for something inferior in the other end (offense). Sounds like a suck deal.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think such trades would be highly situational, right? You have to find a team that is bleeding in net, and at the same time has a top center who is maybe getting older/going UFA/disgruntled/can't-be-retained-for-some-reason/surplus/Cap-casualty... something that is probably quite an exceedingly rare market niche.

And then... we just signed ROR to be our Kopitar-ish guy. Finding an older/surplus/etc center isn't the thing we need. It's getting the young stud we'll have for 15 years. And that part is simply not going to happen. So we need to be keeping Saros.

I wasn't thinking Kopitar because he's old. Purely his goal production last season.

But there is only 1 young guy on the list that fits the point: Dawson Mercer. Nick Suzuki is young and if you throw in assists, he'd be another comparable.

There is no way New Jersey or Montreal trade either of those guys. And for Saros straight up?

 

[glenngineer]

Unless you get the return you want for Saros, he’s not going anywhere.

Watching this team thru 6 games, 5 of them were winnable. We won 3. The 2 losses came on the road against 2 veteran teams. The PP after game 6 looks markedly different then after game 1.

The team still needs elite talent up front and moving Saros will not get you that in return. As I said earlier, if you get the haul you do it.

I was all for moving him last year when we blew it up. Right now, let’s see where we are 20 games. If we continue to do the things analytics are telling us, we should be above .500.

My bigger concerns are Glass’s health and Tomasino’s lack of growth. Novak and Evangelista are players. Need more out of the other two. You just never know, we could catch lightning in a bottle. Then again, we could suck and be vying for a top 5 pick.

 

[Kat Predator]

My bigger concerns are Glass’s health and Tomasino’s lack of growth. Novak and Evangelista are players. Need more out of the other two. You just never know, we could catch lightning in a bottle. Then again, we could suck and be vying for a top 5 pick.

In my view, Cody has noticeably worked hard to become physically stronger and able to hold his own as a 2-way center. I don't just throw him under the nearest bus for not scoring goals. Hope he can shake the LBI and get back to it. I like him, O'Reilly, Sissons, and Novak down the middle so far. Speaking of which, Novak has also noticeably improved his defensive game in the small sample size.

Tomasino is caught in a numbers game at this point. He's had some injuries last year and it may take him more time than some of the other guys in the system. Not sure we're going to give him enough runway or if more time is the only issue.

 

[glenngineer]

In my view, Cody has noticeably worked hard to become physically stronger and able to hold his own as a 2-way center. I don't just throw him under the nearest bus for not scoring goals. Hope he can shake the LBI and get back to it. I like him, O'Reilly, Sissons, and Novak down the middle so far. Speaking of which, Novak has also noticeably improved his defensive game in the small sample size.

Tomasino is caught in a numbers game at this point. He's had some injuries last year and it may take him more time than some of the other guys in the system. Not sure we're going to give him enough runway or if more time is the only issue.

Here's the thing with Glass, while he's gotten stronger, the production has to start happening. I know it's early this year but even last year, when given a larger role, Novak took the ball and ran with it, Glass sort of did. I'd like to see him put it together. In order for this team to have success, he's going to need to be a 50-60 point per year player and right now, I see him trending around 40 at best. Not trying to be a downer, trying to be realistic.

 

[Kat Predator]

Here's the thing with Glass, while he's gotten stronger, the production has to start happening. I know it's early this year but even last year, when given a larger role, Novak took the ball and ran with it, Glass sort of did. I'd like to see him put it together. In order for this team to have success, he's going to need to be a 50-60 point per year player and right now, I see him trending around 40 at best. Not trying to be a downer, trying to be realistic.

Fair enough. (I didn't mean to imply you were dumping on him. But there are some that would trade nearly all of the guys we're developing now for the hopes that float with a few draft picks some day in the future.)

 

[glenngineer]

Fair enough. (I didn't mean to imply you were dumping on him. But there are some that would trade nearly all of the guys we're developing now for the hopes that float with a few draft picks some day in the future.)

I didn't take it that way. It's all good. People have unrealistic expectations. The two players who I think have the most upside in our org are Kemell and Molendyk. They have that elite ceiling to me. We have some really nice players but I don't think any ever hit the highest level. And picks are just that, you're hoping someone pans out into an NHL player.

 

[herzausstein]

Glass' overall ability to stay healthy is of concern to me. He has had alot of issues in the past and i think it is ultimately going to hold him back.

 

[Olderfan]

Tomasino is fading fast. He may yet make it but probably not as the player we wanted him to become.
Evangalista had a good game but we shouldn’t go overboard; give it time and don’t expect too much yet.
Fagemo, nice shot. We were told to expect that. Hard to evaluate the rest of his game.
Parssinen still looks like a player but points yet to come in bunches.
Experiments are still in process right now. But the games are fun!

 

[wmupreds]

I think we're overreacting to 4 games for Tomasino. I understand he wasn't good and I have no issue with a little time in the box but he did put up 18 in 31 just last year. Was it what we all hoped for, no, was he consistent enough, no, but the doom and gloom around him here seems excessive.

 

[triggrman]

Glass is more of a 2 way center. His ice time will be high because he’s trusted in every situation.

 

[101st_fan]

I think we're overreacting to 4 games for Tomasino. I understand he wasn't good and I have no issue with a little time in the box but he did put up 18 in 31 just last year. Was it what we all hoped for, no, was he consistent enough, no, but the doom and gloom around him here seems excessive.

The reality for the road to Smashville goes through MIlwaukee is because most players, even early draft picks, need further development. The organization condeded that they rushed Tomasino his first year, the boards complained he was in the AHL for most of his second, now in his third season Bruno sits him and with the way other forwards are playing, he's got a challenge ahead of him. He didn't register a SOG until the second period of game 4 ... no goals, 1 PP assist.

 

[triggrman]

The reality for the road to Smashville goes through MIlwaukee is because most players, even early draft picks, need further development. The organization condeded that they rushed Tomasino his first year, the boards complained he was in the AHL for most of his second, now in his third season Bruno sits him and with the way other forwards are playing, he's got a challenge ahead of him. He didn't register a SOG until the second period of game 4 ... no goals, 1 PP assist.

While factually true, the board was upset that he was being replaced with guys that were not as good. It's okay to have 1 or 2 grinders, but when you add Jankowski, Sanford, Smith, McCarron, Jeannot, Trenin, etc, enough was enough.

 

[wmupreds]

While factually true, the board was upset that he was being replaced with guys that were not as good. It's okay to have 1 or 2 grinders, but when you add Jankowski, Sanford, Smith, McCarron, Jeannot, Trenin, etc, enough was enough.

Yeah, my issue is with a guy who put up 32 points in 4th line ice time getting sent down in favor of, well, all of the above. At a certain point you're screwing with a guy's head more than you're helping. I simply don't buy into this idea that AHL time is inherently more developmentally valuable than NHL ice time, in fact, I think it can be the other way around if a guy is demonstrably NHL quality.

As I said before, if we had a team with a roster ready to make a real run it's a different calculus. As it stands let the kids play and work their issues out at the level we want them at, as long as they can hold their own.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

The median starting/workload goalie gave up just under 3 GAA last year. Juuse is better than that. For round numbers, let's say he saves an additional goal 1 out of 3 games.

Elite goal scorers score roughly .75 goals per game. (Scoring goals isn't necessarily the right metric for a #1C anyway.) Some of the names at C that would balance the equation, returning 1 goal every 3 games, from last year are: Bergeron, Malkin, Eichel, PLD, Pavelski, Kopitar, Necas.
What are the chances of trading Saros for someone who plays centre and scores like, say, Kopitar?

This is leaving out everything else a Center does, right? Defense, assists, controlling play, etc etc. Fully agreed we can't get a #1C for Saros, and we shouldn't trade him for meh assets, but I don't think it's fair to say Saros = .75 gpg Center just because of that stat.

 

[101st_fan]

While factually true, the board was upset that he was being replaced with guys that were not as good. It's okay to have 1 or 2 grinders, but when you add Jankowski, Sanford, Smith, McCarron, Jeannot, Trenin, etc, enough was enough.

Jankowski outperformed Tomasino in Milwaukee and earned the call up. Then Novak and Parssinen did the same thing. The rotation of 4th line players didn't keep Tomasino out of the lineup last season. He did it to himself by not beating out Sherwood at camp then not getting going in the AHL for about three weeks into their season ... then lagging behind the players who got the call up earlier than he did during the season. Tomasino is supposed to be growing into a scorer ... but once again struggles. He's not getting the puck on net. He's not feeding his linemates at ES ... his one assist on the PP.

Maybe he needs 4th line minutes against 3rd defensive pairings to score. There is a correlation to that.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Maybe he needs 4th line minutes against 3rd defensive pairings to score. There is a correlation to that.

Tomasino looked great in preseason this year. We all thought he was going to come into the regular season nice and warmed up but once again, when matched up against real NHL talent he wilted in the spot light. That's a correlation with causation.

Maybe he figures it out and becomes what we hope he can be but this is the NHL, not a developmental league. Management expects to win no matter how much apathy towards winning this board shows and Tomasino was not helping that happen.

 

[Kat Predator]

This is leaving out everything else a Center does, right? Defense, assists, controlling play, etc etc. Fully agreed we can't get a #1C for Saros, and we shouldn't trade him for meh assets, but I don't think it's fair to say Saros = .75 gpg Center just because of that stat.

Hunh?

Yes, I know a #1C does more than score goals. I even wrote that.

I also wrote Saros is roughly worth a -.33 GPG. The .75 GPG players are named Connor McDavid. There is no way Saros nets McDavid, but that would be a nice trade for us. That would have us come out +.42 GPG and be a good deal for us. I went on to write names of break-even #1Cs in the NHL. There are very few of them. None of them are available either.

The math is pretty simple. We'll never get a +.33 GPG player back for Saros so trading him should directly translate to losing more games. Which, I understand, is exactly what some people want apparently.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hunh?

Yes, I know a #1C does more than score goals. I even wrote that.

I also wrote Saros is roughly worth a -.33 GPG. The .75 GPG players are named Connor McDavid. There is no way Saros nets McDavid, but that would be a nice trade for us. That would have us come out +.42 GPG and be a good deal for us. I went on to write names of break-even #1Cs in the NHL. There are very few of them. None of them are available either.

The math is pretty simple. We'll never get a +.33 GPG player back for Saros so trading him should directly translate to losing more games. Which, I understand, is exactly what some people want apparently.

This seems more and more to me like the issue here. The "tank" people vs. those who want to see playoff games. I don't think we can ever bridge that gap by talking about the players. The players are who they are. But it comes down instead to philosophy. Which none of these arguments about player value is ever going to bridge. I say "play to win". Full stop.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Tomasino is fading fast. He may yet make it but probably not as the player we wanted him to become.
Evangalista had a good game but we shouldn’t go overboard; give it time and don’t expect too much yet.
Fagemo, nice shot. We were told to expect that. Hard to evaluate the rest of his game.
Parssinen still looks like a player but points yet to come in bunches.
Experiments are still in process right now. But the games are fun!

I think things will take time when it comes to our players and adapting to our new coaches system. I have already seen improvements from game 1 to game 6. So I’ll continue to have patience and enjoying seeing our players grow.