Rumor: Juuse Saros Signs 8 Year / $7.74 AAV Contract

[Bringer of Jollity]

So you want to tank?

Pass. Hard PASS.

 

[Armourboy]

Just kick back and let things come to you. One thing I can put " book it " on though, Barry Trotz isn't going to trade Saros until he feels confident Askarov is the guy.

The only exception to that is if someone offers him a 1C for him and that ain't going to happen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just kick back and let things come to you. One thing I can put " book it " on though, Barry Trotz isn't going to trade Saros until he feels confident Askarov is the guy.

The only exception to that is if someone offers him a 1C for him and that ain't going to happen.

And then if you play that thought out... what even can Askarov possibly do to convince Trotz that he's The Guy, at any point this year? If he wrecks the AHL, a la Dustin Wolf say, then... he had a great AHL year. As we see with Wolf, however, it doesn't mean you're automatically going to be a star in the NHL the next season.. or even in the NHL at all!

And so even if that all goes aces for Askarov he's going to have to really stand on his head if/when he does get that NHL opportunity in 2024-25. But will the Preds have already extended Saros at the end of this season anyway? It's entirely possible. Teams don't normally like to go into a season with a big star player as an impending UFA.

I just don't see it as being very likely that anything Askarov does can fit the timeline here. Even if he's the greatest goaltending prospect in the world, it just doesn't line up.

 

[Armourboy]

And then if you play that thought out... what even can Askarov possibly do to convince Trotz that he's The Guy, at any point this year? If he wrecks the AHL, a la Dustin Wolf say, then... he had a great AHL year. As we see with Wolf, however, it doesn't mean you're automatically going to be a star in the NHL the next season.. or even in the NHL at all!

And so even if that all goes aces for Askarov he's going to have to really stand on his head if/when he does get that NHL opportunity in 2024-25. But will the Preds have already extended Saros at the end of this season anyway? It's entirely possible. Teams don't normally like to go into a season with a big star player as an impending UFA.

I just don't see it as being very likely that anything Askarov does can fit the timeline here. Even if he's the greatest goaltending prospect in the world, it just doesn't line up.

There is no reason to worry about extending Saros, you have 2 years to get it done. By the time those two years are over you will have a decent idea if you think he can be what you think he can be.

Besides we have no idea what Saros asks for or if he wants to sit in here while we get things back on track. He may decide he wants to try something else.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The recent Hellebuyck extension looks very palatable to me.

That’s actually the exact kind of deal that scares me. Goalies do generally age better than skaters but having big bucks tied up in a goalie until their late 30s is high risk.

I guess the follow up to that is if we do sign Saros to a Hellebuyck type deal that means we have him tied up until 2032 at which point Askarov would be turning 30. That isn’t really a good timeline for any sort of succession plan for going from Saros to Askarov. Not that Askarov is a guarantee but I think you have to consider that or I would just go ahead and move Askarov sometime soon.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

There is no reason to worry about extending Saros, you have 2 years to get it done. By the time those two years are over you will have a decent idea if you think he can be what you think he can be.

Besides we have no idea what Saros asks for or if he wants to sit in here while we get things back on track. He may decide he wants to try something else.

There are lots of reasons why teams (including our team in several recent examples) will typically extend a major star player in the year before their contract expires. It's just how the NHL works. You can leave it to the last minute and that just makes it easier for the player to say, hey, I got this close to free agency, why not test the market? And especially with the prospect of a rapidly rising Cap the next two offseasons, I don't expect that typical NHL process to change. Unless something very unusual happens this season for the team and/or Saros, I would fully expect to see Saros extended before training camp opens next season.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

That’s actually the exact kind of deal that scares me. Goalies do generally age better than skaters but having big bucks tied up in a goalie until their late 30s is high risk.

I guess the follow up to that is if we do sign Saros to a Hellebuyck type deal that means we have him tied up until 2032 at which point Askarov would be turning 30. That isn’t really a good timeline for any sort of succession plan for going from Saros to Askarov. Not that Askarov is a guarantee but I think you have to consider that or I would just go ahead and move Askarov sometime soon.

I think we saw that Trotz was quite ready to move Askarov. Obviously "if the price was right". But he wasn't clinging to him like a truckload of diamonds or anything.

We signed Rinne for 7 years when he was 30, and $7M in 2011-12 dollars might have been more than $8.5M in 2024-25 dollars. We even got to tack 2 more years onto his deal after that.

There was a transition period either way overlapping the back end of Rinne's deal, as there normally would be built into the idea of a long-term deal to Hellebuyck, as there would be with Saros and Askarov if he pans out. Except... this time I wouldn't worry too much about the overlap side of things... there WILL be Expansion during that Saros contract. 100% guaranteed. If Askarov is looking good and Saros is declining, we simply don't protect Saros in the Expansion draft. Or the vice versa if Askarov isn't making the grade. There isn't really a scenario where we have to worry much about it. The best goalie is #1 at every point along the way in every year, evaluated in real time, with a very likely "out" half-way through the deal due to Expansion.

 

[Kat Predator]

If Saros finishes his career as a Pred, I may have to avoid walking too close to taller buildings downtown for fear of people launching themselves out of open windows.

 

[bdub24]

This seems premature. Dont feel bad, it happens to a lot of guys.

 

[Armourboy]

If Saros finishes his career as a Pred, I may have to avoid walking too close to taller buildings downtown for fear of people launching themselves out of open windows.

The real problem comes down to the fact that if Saros is here for a 7-8 year contract it means Poile wasted that first rounder on a goalie we didn't need and means those of us who thought drafting a goalie that high was a waste ended up being right.

 

[Olderfan]

Rinne was a star goalie. Saros is a good goalie. Askarov is a high draft pick. So far; so good.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The real problem comes down to the fact that if Saros is here for a 7-8 year contract it means Poile wasted that first rounder on a goalie we didn't need and means those of us who thought drafting a goalie that high was a waste ended up being right.

I don't think it'll count as a "waste" even then... we've drafted pretty well lately, and we'll probably have something to show for Askarov even if he can't ever be good enough to unseat Saros. If our drafting consistently sucked, then that's another story. But every team is going to blow some picks once in a while. Jarvis was my pick, but I'm not going to bemoan the Askarov selection even if he never leaves the AHL. We still don't have any other notable goalie prospect anywhere in the entire system. I still count it as an area of overall organizational weakness, even WITH Askarov. So the pick still made some sense.

 

[Kat Predator]

The real problem comes down to the fact that if Saros is here for a 7-8 year contract it means Poile wasted that first rounder on a goalie we didn't need and means those of us who thought drafting a goalie that high was a waste ended up being right.

In order for it to be a waste, I think we'd have to keep Saros forever and let Askarov walk for nothing. Developing Askarov and getting back something fair in trade for his value wouldn't necessarily be a waste. And there is more nuance than that. What if Askarov doesn't ever pan out as a starting NHL goalie? Does that make it a bigger or lesser waste? What if he never becomes as good as Saros is? Where does that fall on the spectrum?

At some point, Trotz will have to make his decisions. There are a range of options between tank now, trade Saros, cross your fingers throwing Askarov out there before he's ready doesn't "Flyers" him ... and keep Saros long term and let Askarov walk out the door for nothing.

 

[triggrman]

So many people don't remember Brian Finley....

 

[jumb0]

You don't trade Juice until 1 of 2 things happens:

1) We somehow get concrete proof that Askarov is what he was hyped to be
2) Another GM does their best George McPhee impression and makes a Godfather offer

 

[BigFatCat999]

So many people don't remember Brian Finley....

*nods* Preds fan since 2002. I remember, so does Pepperidge Farms, so does the standings. and oh Gawd, Chet Pickard

 

[herzausstein]

*nods* Preds fan since 2002. I remember, so does Pepperidge Farms, so does the standings. and oh Gawd, Chet Pickard

Thanks for recalling the more recent great Chet

 

[BigFatCat999]

Thanks for recalling the more recent great Chet

Just oy. The most NASHVILLE name and the biggest failure.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Thanks for recalling the more recent great Chet

 

[Predation]

It seems that elite goalies are as rare as elite centers. As others have said, I don’t think you trade Saros unless the return is stupid.

 

[Predsanddead24]

It seems that elite goalies are as rare as elite centers.

Probably true but I also think you're more likely to have a mediocre goalie get hot and play at an elite level for a playoff run then you are to have mediocre center play at an elite level that long which is why elite goalies are valued less.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Probably true but I also think you're more likely to have a mediocre goalie get hot and play at an elite level for a playoff run then you are to have mediocre center play at an elite level that long which is why elite goalies are valued less.

"But it worked for Colorado and Vegas"

-Signed,
Edmonton, Toronto, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Pittsburgh

 

[PredsV82]

So many people don't remember Brian Finley....

And Chet Pickard
Edit.. @BigFatCat999 beat me to it

 

[BigFatCat999]

And Chet Pickard
Edit.. @BigFatCat999 beat me to it

big brain....massive brain. Also I am a geek and look at Saros bumping up his trade value in NYC. LOL!

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

In a vacuum, I would be ok with trading Saros in the interest of young assets for all the reasons laid out in the OP (I am far more comfortable with a few thin years than others are here, posted a lot about that this off-season).

End fo the day though, goalies aren't going to be fairly valued in trades. I would only move Saros if we're getting a #1C or someone who very likely will be a #1C, and no team will trade one of those for any goalie. I don't expect to get fair value back, so we should and will keep him unless he asks out to chase a cup.