Confirmed with Link: Juuse Saros Extended

[hockey diva]

I appreciate what Saros brings to the team but this is a dumb contract and will hurt the organization down the line.

 

[herzausstein]

The problem i see with this contract is:

If Saros doesnt rebound, this becomes extremely hard to move.

If saros does rebound and we hold onto askarov, it creates a chokepoint for askarov if he proves NHL capable. At that point we can trade someone.... BUT if you look historically... Schneider returned the 8th overall.... so trading Askarov for a similar return after investing so much time and drafting him 11th overall would be underwhelming. Atleast it would be something though. Trading Saros would require him waiving him NMC.

Atleast it is insurance for Askarov busting but then that was a waste of 11th overall when it already appeared that saros was going to be successful in the NHL having already played several games including the starters load in 19-20 (40 of 69 games).

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Was there a presser where Trotz explained his thinking on the extension as well as his thoughts on Askarov?

 

[Softball99]

Trotz didn't specifically say it. But I also believe he would do Saros like TBL did with McD only it's...back up G or trade. So, unless he gets the trade he wants for Asky...Development or over cooking however you want to look at it. It's definitively not the worst problem to have.

 

[Armourboy]

I guarantee he tells Askarov and his agent to win the starting job and the team will figure it out. He bought out Duchene whose contract was larger than Saros is.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Was there a presser where Trotz explained his thinking on the extension as well as his thoughts on Askarov?

He made some tangential comments in his post-FA presser. But I don't think we need to really read too much anymore into what Trotz says publicly... I don't think he's "dishonest" at all in his public comments... but he's also very "eager/keen" and his actions at the end of the day will probably always override whatever he might have said publicly?

He's "going for it" is my take-away. And I won't ever again take anything he says publicly very seriously. It's earnest enough "in the moment/context"... but his underlying motivations are more easily sussed out from his actions than from his words.

 

[PredsV82]

I guarantee he tells Askarov and his agent to win the starting job and the team will figure it out. He bought out Duchene whose contract was larger than Saros is.

This is exactly right. Askarov hasn't proven anything yet. If and when he proves he deserves to be the starter, Trotz will figure something out.

You have to think if Askarov ends up outstanding but Saros is still decent Saros would agree to waive rather than be the backup. We would probably have to retain but that shouldn't be a problem. And if Saros craters and is terrible then he will get bought out. But the chances of him getting that bad, that fast have to be pretty slim, as are the chances of Askarov taking the starters spot anytime before 26-27, and by then our "Stamkos window" will be closing so we will have shot our shot and done the best we can

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is exactly right. Askarov hasn't proven anything yet. If and when he proves he deserves to be the starter, Trotz will figure something out.

You have to think if Askarov ends up outstanding but Saros is still decent Saros would agree to waive rather than be the backup. We would probably have to retain but that shouldn't be a problem. And if Saros craters and is terrible then he will get bought out. But the chances of him getting that bad, that fast have to be pretty slim, as are the chances of Askarov taking the starters spot anytime before 26-27, and by then our "Stamkos window" will be closing so we will have shot our shot and done the best we can

This, but also I will just keep re-iterating that I don't think Trotz really needed to hand out ALL the candy that he did to Saros. The guy wanted to stay here, and if we were a little more "ruthless" we could have leveraged that. Oh well.

 

[PredsV82]

This, but also I will just keep re-iterating that I don't think Trotz really needed to hand out ALL the candy that he did to Saros. The guy wanted to stay here, and if we were a little more "ruthless" we could have leveraged that. Oh well.

To what end? Piss off the guy badly enough that he says "screw you" and leaves next summer? I don't think Trotz could have leveraged enough to make a difference. The NMC was probably the most important thing to saros and he likely gave us a break on the AAV to get it. The term is pretty irrelevant. No way he would sign for less than 6 or 7 years and that would have probably been at a higher AAV so would have basically been a wash.
There were basically two options: Sign him long term for terms that aren't ideal but he will sign, or trade him. There is no fantasy world where he agrees to a 4 or 5 year deal or signs now without a NMC

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To what end? Piss off the guy badly enough that he says "screw you" and leaves next summer? I don't think Trotz could have leveraged enough to make a difference. The NMC was probably the most important thing to saros and he likely gave us a break on the AAV to get it. The term is pretty irrelevant. No way he would sign for less than 6 or 7 years and that would have probably been at a higher AAV so would have basically been a wash.
There were basically two options: Sign him long term for terms that aren't ideal but he will sign, or trade him. There is no fantasy world where he agrees to a 4 or 5 year deal or signs now without a NMC

6 years and no NMC is something I do still firmly believe Saros would have ultimately agreed to. Maybe that is "fantasy". But he wanted to be here, and that would have also been a very nice contract for him. I would have waited until June 30th, 2025, if that's what it took to figure out if such a deal was going to fly or not. Trotz was impatient, he signed a guy who just underperformed to a contract based on historical data. If Saros bounces back as a Vezina candidate it's all good. I don't think he will. But that's what the Preds are expecting here.

 

[Softball99]

He kind of did since he can be traded afer year 6 as it is... I could also see him waiving for an expansion draft if he knew Askarov was Rinne 2.0 to get another couple years starting. NHL conracts are real money. He got the Payday he wanted.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He kind of did since he can be traded afer year 6 as it is... I could also see him waiving for an expansion draft if he knew Askarov was Rinne 2.0 to get another couple years starting. NHL conracts are real money. He got the Payday he wanted.

For sure, Saros got everything HE wanted. That's a sweet sweet deal for him.

For us... uh...

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It's one thing to be a fan and not like the contract, or even hate it, but it's another to act like we know anything about the negotiations.

 

[Predsanddead24]

If you compare Saros, Hellebuyck, and Sorokin's stats over the last several years there really isn't much difference between them and he signed a contract that is completely in line with what those two signed last offseason. Maybe we could have played hardball and gotten slightly more favorable terms but that relies on us trying to guess how much Saros actually wants to be here. The downside to that is also if things go south and he walks then you're left with a complete question mark in goal after adding a bunch of guys to try and make a push as a contender.

 

[PredsV82]

6 years and no NMC is something I do still firmly believe Saros would have ultimately agreed to. Maybe that is "fantasy". But he wanted to be here, and that would have also been a very nice contract for him. I would have waited until June 30th, 2025, if that's what it took to figure out if such a deal was going to fly or not. Trotz was impatient, he signed a guy who just underperformed to a contract based on historical data. If Saros bounces back as a Vezina candidate it's all good. I don't think he will. But that's what the Preds are expecting here.

You're being silly if you think he would have signed June 30 2025. If he was going to go that far he would surely go to July 1 and see what else was out there. I know he wanted to stay but I suspect he wasn't desperate to stay. Obviously no one will ever know, but I think your scenario is highly unlikley

 

[Armourboy]

If you compare Saros, Hellebuyck, and Sorokin's stats over the last several years there really isn't much difference between them and he signed a contract that is completely in line with what those two signed last offseason. Maybe we could have played hardball and gotten slightly more favorable terms but that relies on us trying to guess how much Saros actually wants to be here. The downside to that is also if things go south and he walks then you're left with a complete question mark in goal after adding a bunch of guys to try and make a push as a contender.

Dunno I'd almost rather be left with a question mark rather than that contract. I mean he himself could fill one year of that question mark if you did absolutely nothing. There were other options available that didn't include giving a 30 year old goalie an 8 year deal with a full NMC that hampers you if expansion rolls around or Askarov does turn out to be good 3-4 years down the road.

 

[Armourboy]

6 years and no NMC is something I do still firmly believe Saros would have ultimately agreed to. Maybe that is "fantasy". But he wanted to be here, and that would have also been a very nice contract for him. I would have waited until June 30th, 2025, if that's what it took to figure out if such a deal was going to fly or not. Trotz was impatient, he signed a guy who just underperformed to a contract based on historical data. If Saros bounces back as a Vezina candidate it's all good. I don't think he will. But that's what the Preds are expecting here.

You've been holding onto that creation in your head for well over a year now, its time to let it go. Those of us that wanted him traded a year ago sat right here and argued with everyone that it was going to take 8 years and a NMC to sign him, which is why we wanted him traded.

A year later and what do you know, 8 years and a NMC. Shocking.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Dunno I'd almost rather be left with a question mark rather than that contract. I mean he himself could fill one year of that question mark if you did absolutely nothing. There were other options available that didn't include giving a 30 year old goalie an 8 year deal with a full NMC that hampers you if expansion rolls around or Askarov does turn out to be good 3-4 years down the road.

I absolutely would take the question mark. And I have no great faith in Askarov either.

I will never ever never let go of my belief that the Preds could have talked him down from that contract. I don't believe they tried very hard, because end of the day I don't think Trotz is that concerned about things like Expansion drafts and buyouts and so on. He just isn't a cautious thinker when it comes to managing, which is an interesting contrast to his coaching approach. We'll see how it plays out in the end. Being a little reckless and throwing caution to the wind is something we haven't seen before here. If it pays off, nobody will care that he took these risks and handed out candy contracts like he thought July 1st was Hallowe'en. If it blows up in his face, I'm all ready to pile on. But we've got a few years before we'll know.

 

[wmupreds]

I absolutely would take the question mark. And I have no great faith in Askarov either.

I will never ever never let go of my belief that the Preds could have talked him down from that contract. I don't believe they tried very hard, because end of the day I don't think Trotz is that concerned about things like Expansion drafts and buyouts and so on. He just isn't a cautious thinker when it comes to managing, which is an interesting contrast to his coaching approach. We'll see how it plays out in the end. Being a little reckless and throwing caution to the wind is something we haven't seen before here. If it pays off, nobody will care that he took these risks and handed out candy contracts like he thought July 1st was Hallowe'en. If it blows up in his face, I'm all ready to pile on. But we've got a few years before we'll know.

I will agree on one point. I don't get the feeling the contract was heavily negotiated on the org's end given how quickly it was signed.

But star players in their prime years get 8 years now, and usually NMCs although that seems to get negotiated a bit more. I agree with others that anything besides an 8 year deal was totally unrealistic.

 

[Armourboy]

I absolutely would take the question mark. And I have no great faith in Askarov either.

I will never ever never let go of my belief that the Preds could have talked him down from that contract. I don't believe they tried very hard, because end of the day I don't think Trotz is that concerned about things like Expansion drafts and buyouts and so on. He just isn't a cautious thinker when it comes to managing, which is an interesting contrast to his coaching approach. We'll see how it plays out in the end. Being a little reckless and throwing caution to the wind is something we haven't seen before here. If it pays off, nobody will care that he took these risks and handed out candy contracts like he thought July 1st was Hallowe'en. If it blows up in his face, I'm all ready to pile on. But we've got a few years before we'll know.

I mean you can hold onto it, but the proof is in the pudding. It ended up exactly where we thought when we all said he needed to be traded. Now we are stuck with it.

As far as Trotz mentality goes I'm not sold on him being a gunslinger type, all he did was burn up cap space by signing old guys. He didn't burn up draft capital, didn't use any of his prospect pool, it's all stuff that can be basically washed clean in 3-4 years outside two contracts.

I mean looking at it he really only had two options, make a good couple year stab at something or basically be stuck where he was for the next several years. Desperate to get out of the later situation maybe, but not reckless imo.

 

[glenngineer]

I absolutely would take the question mark. And I have no great faith in Askarov either.

I will never ever never let go of my belief that the Preds could have talked him down from that contract. I don't believe they tried very hard, because end of the day I don't think Trotz is that concerned about things like Expansion drafts and buyouts and so on. He just isn't a cautious thinker when it comes to managing, which is an interesting contrast to his coaching approach. We'll see how it plays out in the end. Being a little reckless and throwing caution to the wind is something we haven't seen before here. If it pays off, nobody will care that he took these risks and handed out candy contracts like he thought July 1st was Hallowe'en. If it blows up in his face, I'm all ready to pile on. But we've got a few years before we'll know.

Let me ask you one question; name a comparable player who accepted anything less than the 8-year max allowed. If you can name one or even many, I would say these are the exceptions, not the rule.

As far as your belief goes, you have no clue what happened behind closed doors so while you hold true to your belief, the facts tell us a much different story.

On to something much more interesting, Trotz has set this team up for two windows - the next 2-3 years and then the 10 or so after that.

The reason for the Saros deal is he wants to give his veterans every possible chance to win a Cup and he felt Saros gave him the best chance in doing so. During this window, kids will be eased into the lineup, probably 2-3 a year to help these vets in this window, all the while teaching them how to be professionals in the NHL.

Once that window is over, we hopefully have enough of the young kids developing into top 6 talents that the vets on the downside of their careers can fill a bottom-6 role. This is also the window where Askarov and Saros start transitioning from starter/backup to 1a/1b, with Askarov hopefully turning into the 1a solution.

Depending on if we win a Cup in the next 2-3 years or down the line will determine the fate of Saros. If he hasn't won one, he may be open to moving to a contender if the kids don't pan out or we're still a year or two away.

There are so many paths that can happen and while I don't love the Saros deal, I can understand the motivation behind it. And here's the thing, if we do happen to find lightning in a bottle and win the Cup, no one's going to give a crap about any of the contracts that got handed out this month.

 

[triggrman]

Agreed . Also if Saris is valuable in 4 years when we truly have to get younger he’s likely willing to waive his trade protection.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Agreed . Also if Saris is valuable in 4 years when we truly have to get younger he’s likely willing to waive his trade protection.

Has there been someone that 100% refused to waive? That shit just means they can control where they get traded to, just like McDonagh.

 

[jonu]

8M is soon to be the new 6M with cap raising. If you dont give Saros 8 years you pay more dollars and that kills the short term cup window going by how the team is assembled right now.

Halak who is a smaller goalie like Saros played well into his mid-late 30s in the NHL, I dont see any reason why Saros wouldn't be able to do the same.

 

[herzausstein]

8M is soon to be the new 6M with cap raising. If you dont give Saros 8 years you pay more dollars and that kills the short term cup window going by how the team is assembled right now.

Halak who is a smaller goalie like Saros played well into his mid-late 30s in the NHL, I dont see any reason why Saros wouldn't be able to do the same.

WRT Halak....
His last 5 seasons
18-19 : played 49% of the games - end of season age 34 - 5.5 million cap
19-20 : played 44% of the games - 5.5 million cap
20-21 : played 34% of the games - 2.25 million cap
21-22 : played 21% of the games - 1.5 million cap
22-23 : played 30% of the games -
end of season age 38 - 1.5 million cap

If Saros goes the way of Halak in terms of workload, that is one hell of an expensive backup. Halak's longest contract was 6 years (all prime). After his 30s, his longest was 4. His mid to late 30s, a 2 year contract, then two 1 year contracts.


It isnt the contract cap that bothers me right now... it is having that caphit until his is well past his prime for goalies attached to alot of trade protection.