Justin Holl

[Tak7]

I go back and forth with Holl - a lot.

There's times where I look at his game, don't really see him excel at anything, and wonder how / why he's an integral part of this blueline.

Then there other times, like the first couple of games of the season, where Holl not being noticeable is probably a real asset - a real steady eddy at the back who does his job with minimal fuss.

 

[The Iceman]

If the Leafs were deeper and Holl was only asked to play 3rd pair minutes and PK for $2 million/season I would be very pleased.

But he is asked to play the toughest opponents and even though he is holding his own I still consider him a 4-5. Not his fault, just his circumstance.

 

[Machinae]

Yep, when a team like the Isles has guys like Toews and Mayfield come out of nowhere to become good top 4 dmen, Leafs nation freaks out and wants to trade Nylander for him.

What makes it worse in this case is that there was no reason at all for Babcock to stiff Holl so completely when he had a right side of Hainsey Zaitsev Polak. Holl had turned himself into a dominant AHL dman by age 25 at the latest (he was very good at 23 and 24 too), but Babcock just refused to play this big strong great skating RHD because he hated Dubas. If Holl gets a legit chance at age 24/25 like he should have, suddenly his track record looks much more promising.

The worst part is that he looked good in his limited NHL. Didn't he score in each of his first two games? It was lunacy that he was kept out for so long.

 

[zeke]

If the Leafs were deeper and Holl was only asked to play 3rd pair minutes and PK for $2 million/season I would be very pleased.

But he is asked to play the toughest opponents and even though he is holding his own I still consider him a 4-5. Not his fault, just his circumstance.

the question is, why do you consider him only a 4-5? have you seen what most NHl teams have in their top 4s?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Not really a fault. The bigger issue was after the miscue by Muzzin they ran that Chinese fire drill trying to recover, which has killed them in the past.

Oh totally. I seem to have this weirdly accurate premonition every time there is a minor miscue that results in a GA. Like any true Leaf fan knew that puck was going in the back of our net once Muzz turned the puck over in his own end.... without any pressure... with under 2 minutes left in a 2 goal game. It was so on brand for the Leafs. I will say, that is the exact game they would either lose or walk away with 1 pt last year. One game that came to mind was last year against FLA late in the year, where they had a 2 goal lead early in the 3rd, after being the better team all game, and somehow managed to lose in regulation when they allowed 4 unanswered. This group finally played a decent 3rd period w/ a lead, despite the couple PK they had to kill off. Not to mention the fact it was their 4th game in 6 nights vs. a well rested Jets squad. I know the Jets looked to be pressing at times in that 3rd, but the Leafs really did not give them a lot. Most of their quality chances came at a man advantage. Very very pleased with that game last night. I think that was the most complete 60 minutes I have seen from this group since the core was in their rookie years 2016-17. I know that sounds like a hyperbole, but I really cant remember a game like that. Certainly not against a quality opponent like the Jets

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The worst part is that he looked good in his limited NHL. Didn't he score in each of his first two games? It was lunacy that he was kept out for so long.

Babs

 

[Zybalto]

I think folks get pretty tribal over players and once they are invested in hating someone on the team, its hard to bring them back.

The only really big disappointment on D overall was Barrie TBH. All the other dmen performed well in their roles in one way or another.

Looking at the time period since Keefe became coach, its insane that Barrie makes more money than Holl. Holl is on arguably the top shutdown pairing in the league and Barrie is an underperforming bottom pairing powerplay specialist.

Barrie can turn it around of course and Holl can falter but the pile on when it came to Holl in the off-season for a couple of off games is crazy. Holl wasn't even that bad away from Muzzin overall. It just becomes the narrative for some reason.

 

[zeke]

zeke hearts dom

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

zeke hearts dom

that's weird. I could have sworn Holl proved he was bad and Dubas overpaid him on a fat multi-year contract

 

[zeke]

that's weird. I could have sworn Holl proved he was bad and Dubas overpaid him on a fat multi-year contract

ok #6 dman looks like

 

[Nineteen67]

@zeke @Twine Tickler @Notsince67 @Gary Nylund @Zybalto .....

I have question for anyone on the board, but wanted to make you guys were tagged in case you know the answer.

The NHL now has player and puck tracking and they are recording speed, distance, and a million other things.
Where do we find this data? I haven’t seen any broadcast show this info yet.

TIA.

 

[Gary Nylund]

@zeke @Twine Tickler @Notsince67 @Gary Nylund @Zybalto .....

I have question for anyone on the board, but wanted to make you guys were tagged in case you know the answer.

The NHL now has player and puck tracking and they are recording speed, distance, and a million other things.
Where do we find this data? I haven’t seen any broadcast show this info yet.

TIA.

I have no idea myself, almost everything I know about stats comes from what people post here. I'm sure someone will be able to help you out though.

 

[The Iceman]

the question is, why do you consider him only a 4-5? have you seen what most NHl teams have in their top 4s?

For me it is just the eye test. I watch and replay plays within the game and the goal against last night is a good example.
Holl should have marked up Connor better on that play.
And Holl lacks the offensive instincts required to be a top 3 D.

Not at all slagging him, and in a salary cap world where our top forwards eat up so much cap space what he delivers for $2 million is a welcome sight.

 

[Twine Tickler]

@zeke @Twine Tickler @Notsince67 @Gary Nylund @Zybalto .....

I have question for anyone on the board, but wanted to make you guys were tagged in case you know the answer.

The NHL now has player and puck tracking and they are recording speed, distance, and a million other things.
Where do we find this data? I haven’t seen any broadcast show this info yet.

TIA.

I personally dont look into metrics like that. I think the only fancy metrics I pay attention to are xGF, xGA. The rest can get pretty convoluted. I think at one point in the broadcast last night they had mentioned Marner had skated something like 8000 feet in the 1st period, which sounds like he would have had to have had a massive period. When in actuality I thought that was maybe his weakest period in the game. In theory, turning the puck over on entry 2 times a shift will cause you to skate a lot. Not sure i'd value that particular metric in the same fashion as say a midfielder in soccer distance ran

 

[Notsince67]

@zeke @Twine Tickler @Notsince67 @Gary Nylund @Zybalto .....

I have question for anyone on the board, but wanted to make you guys were tagged in case you know the answer.

The NHL now has player and puck tracking and they are recording speed, distance, and a million other things.
Where do we find this data? I haven’t seen any broadcast show this info yet.

TIA.

I have been looking myself. Was planning on grabbing it with python when it has some history. I asked the same question on the mainboard in the analytics thread.

 

[zeke]

For me it is just the eye test. I watch and replay plays within the game and the goal against last night is a good example.
Holl should have marked up Connor better on that play.
And Holl lacks the offensive instincts required to be a top 3 D.

Not at all slagging him, and in a salary cap world where our top forwards eat up so much cap space what he delivers for $2 million is a welcome sight.

Well, he certainly has better offensive skills and instincts than a guy like, say, Eric Cernak, who was a fixture on Tampa's cup-winning primary defensive matchup D pairing.

 

[Notsince67]

I personally dont look into metrics like that. I think the only fancy metrics I pay attention to are xGF, xGA. The rest can get pretty convoluted. I think at one point in the broadcast last night they had mentioned Marner had skated something like 8000 feet in the 1st period, which sounds like he would have had to have had a massive period. When in actuality I thought that was maybe his weakest period in the game. In theory, turning the puck over on entry 2 times a shift will cause you to skate a lot. Not sure i'd value that particular metric in the same fashion as say a midfielder in soccer distance ran

Possession stats are proxied as a percentage of shots for over total shots. This data will really improve who really drives lines.
Edit..as far as turnovers go, if a player is holding the puck to find an open man, he will likely have greater takeaways over a person who just dumps it in. The very premise of takeaways should be contextually calibrated

 

[Gary Nylund]

I personally dont look into metrics like that. I think the only fancy metrics I pay attention to are xGF, xGA. The rest can get pretty convoluted. I think at one point in the broadcast last night they had mentioned Marner had skated something like 8000 feet in the 1st period, which sounds like he would have had to have had a massive period. When in actuality I thought that was maybe his weakest period in the game. In theory, turning the puck over on entry 2 times a shift will cause you to skate a lot. Not sure i'd value that particular metric in the same fashion as say a midfielder in soccer distance ran

Haha I'd have zero clue what to do with that little nugget of info, sounds completely useless to me.

 

[TMLAM34]

Holl is more suited for the third pairing, but he has looked pretty good playing alongside Muzzin so can’t really complain.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, he certainly has better offensive skills and instincts than a guy like, say, Eric Cernak, who was a fixture on Tampa's cup-winning primary defensive matchup D pairing.

I'd even say that you don't need much in the way of offensive instincts at all to be a top 3 Dman anyway so who cares? And who cares if he's a #3, #4 or #9, he's playing a position that has been our biggest hole for years now and has been playing well above his pay grade. What more could anyone ask for?

 

[Nineteen67]

I have been looking myself. Was planning on grabbing it with python when it has some history. I asked the same question on the mainboard in the analytics thread.

I was expecting to see it on the TV broadcasts. I caught a the tail end of a conversation the Preds Canes game last night and they were talking about about someone skating 24mph.
Got me to thinking about it.

A lot of this will help with the sports science of each team if they develop and implement a protocol around sound data. Eg, The number of minutes a player plays may not be as useful or meaningful as “spurts of energy consumed” and recovery time. ....spit balling

 

[Swervin81]

Holl's been fantastic to start the year. It's pretty obvious that him and Muzzin just click and have a great thing going together.

I think the bottom pairing is pretty much gonna be a revolving door, though. Lehtonen looked good during most of his shifts yesterday and they gotta find a way to get him more playing time. 7D probably isn't a permanent solution.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Possession stats are proxied as a percentage of shots for over total shots. This data will really improve who really drives lines.

ya there is certainly room for these metrics in the game no doubt. I think they were talking about it on the SDP with Dom Luszcyszyn (jeez what a mouthful even typing that last name). I really like advanced stats, but they need to be interpreted on a game by game analysis in my opinion, and viewed as a whole not individually. They also have to align with the eye test. For example, I believe Cody Ceci had great advanced statistics. He was on the ice with Morgan Reilly most of the time, and often on the ice with the top 2 lines. He will likely show good advanced metrics as the shots/high danger chances come when those surrounding players are on the ice w/ him. whereas when you look at the game with your eyes, you can see areas of real weakness. So, similar to plus/minus some stats can be muddied positively or negatively depending on who that player plays with. Also I think, the first game of the year against MTL, we had an xGF of 4ish to MTL 3ish. However most of our high danger opportunities came while on a man advantage. We scored 2 times on the PP that game, and totaled 3 minutes of PP time prior to scoring those 2 goals. Knowing that you can only score 1 goal per PP, had we scored immediately into those PP's on our 1st high danger chance, we would have less high danger chances in that game, resulting in a much lower xGF. so when you look at the data from that game, both teams had 2 PPG, yet the 5v5 xGF was dead even. So the 1 goal gap in xGA only shows that the Leafs PP generated more chances on the PP prior to scoring (since they both had 2 PPG). so if you are purely looking at 1 metric, in this case xGF and not pairing it with the eye test or other advanced data, it can easily tell the wrong storyline IMO. But I am a big fan of advanced stats.

 

[zeke]

I'd even say that you don't need much in the way of offensive instincts at all to be a top 3 Dman anyway so who cares? And who cares if he's a #3, #4 or #9, he's playing a position that has been our biggest hole for years now and has been playing well above his pay grade. What more could anyone ask for?

yup.

and hey you know what? the ~5gl/25pt pace Holl has produced at even strength so far in his career is actually pretty good offense.


Even Strength 82gm pace, this year + last year:

Toronto and Tbay's Cup D:

Hedman: 40pts
Rielly: 33pts
Muzzin: 32pts
Shattenkirk: 32pts
Holl: 25pts
Sergachev: 24pts
Brodie: 23pts
McDonagh: 17pts
Cernak: 16pts
Bogosian: 16pts
Dermott: 15pts

 

[zeke]

Possession stats are proxied as a percentage of shots for over total shots. This data will really improve who really drives lines.
Edit..as far as turnovers go, if a player is holding the puck to find an open man, he will likely have greater takeaways over a person who just dumps it in. The very premise of takeaways should be contextually calibrated

to be fair I'm not sure we can conclude that pure possession (i.e. time of puck possession) is necessarily more or even as important as effective possesion (i.e. number and quality of chances created and prevented).