Justin Holl

[zeke]

Then you deal Dermott.

and then you risk losing another player to seattle on TOP of losing dermott.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Then you deal Dermott.

Lehtonen might well be an ace in the hole in terms of dealing with Seattle. I would imagine they, and the rest of the league, see him as a higher ceiling player than Dermott (which probably isn't true, Dermott's a good one) because of the perceived offense and all of the hype about him being a potential top pair dman coming into this year. He's put up a bit of offense in a really small sample and his performance has been generally fine. So if we want to keep Dermott and he's the one that's going to be exposed, I would think that Seattle would take a small asset to choose Lehtonen instead.

 

[Buds17]

Its not that leaving Muzz unprotected would solely to make it more attractive for Seattle to take Kerf, I honestly think we have the organizational depth to accommodate either one of them leaving. When you factor in their contracts as well, and our need to resign Hyman, It just makes sense.

Fair enough. I'll grant that identifying Kerfoot's replacement likely requires dipping into the UFA pool. I still suspect that will be easier to accomplish than trying to replace Muzzin at this point though.

 

[TheShape]

Holl won't be exposed. If anything. I say Kerfoot. he's been good this year but 3.5MM can go elsewhere. He's not playing centre. I'll let him go and bring up Robertson next year. Dermott, Holl, Mikheyev, Engvall are all cheaper options and are proving to be good players for the Leafs in their roles so they are too valuable to be expansion casualties

Ideally they take Kerfoot off our hands, I wouldn't be against Dubas throwing a pick their way to make sure they take Kerfoot. But if I'm Seattle I'm gunning for Mikheyev. Holl will be protected and I feel Dermott will be moved for assets before then. Either picks or a youngish player exempt from draft.

 

[EC]

Ideally they take Kerfoot off our hands, I wouldn't be against Dubas throwing a pick their way to make sure they take Kerfoot. But if I'm Seattle I'm gunning for Mikheyev. Holl will be protected and I feel Dermott will be moved for assets before then. Either picks or a youngish player exempt from draft.

I just went to capfriendly and went to Seattle expansion section...it shows Mikheyev as exempt/protected. Am I missing something?

 

[TheShape]

So if we want to keep Dermott and he's the one that's going to be exposed, I would think that Seattle would take a small asset to choose Lehtonen instead.

Lehtonen's a UFA after this season, he won't be included in the expansion draft.

 

[zeke]

I just went to capfriendly and went to Seattle expansion section...it shows Mikheyev as exempt/protected. Am I missing something?

no.

he is exempt.

 

[zeke]

For the record, the only players that need to protected (unless for some dumb reason we re-sign one of the impending UFAs before the draft) are:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares (must protect, no choice)
Kerfoot
Engvall
Anderson
Brooks
Petan
Malgin

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl
Dermott

Campbell
Hutchinson

 

[Randy Randerson]

Lehtonen's a UFA after this season, he won't be included in the expansion draft.

Sorry, assuming we re-signed him. He would have to be on board with the plan I think, but there would be a lot of opportunity for him on an expansion team and cap space to go around.

If he was expansion exempt after re-signing, Lehtonen is the trade piece and someone else is the expansion draft piece, someone super expendable. I think the concept still might work

 

[TheShape]

I just went to capfriendly and went to Seattle expansion section...it shows Mikheyev as exempt/protected. Am I missing something?

I initially thought Mikheyev was exempt too considering he's a 2nd year NHLer, but I've been seeing mixed things around here.

 

[Stephen]

tbh the guy i'm most worried about losing is Engvall. I think they'd scoop him right up at his price.

he's the guy Dubas needs to protect imo. Kerfoot and Dermott are more expendable considering contracts.

even worried they might scoop up Anderson.

I think the most important thing to realize is if we do nothing we only lose one good piece.

I think we protect Holl because he’s just a better player than Dermott at the moment and we are a team of this moment.

In terms of Engvall he has a unique body and skill set which seems to imply he might have some unique upside but he’s also got a lot of vanilla games. Hard to say.

Kerfoot actually seems like a decent expansion draft pick up.

 

[Stephen]

Sorry, assuming we re-signed him. He would have to be on board with the plan I think, but there would be a lot of opportunity for him on an expansion team and cap space to go around.

If he was expansion exempt after re-signing, Lehtonen is the trade piece and someone else is the expansion draft piece, someone super expendable. I think the concept still might work

Do we just pay a second round pick to dictate who we get to keep?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Do we just pay a second round pick to dictate who we get to keep?

Something like that, if it was Lehtonen that we wanted them to take it may not even be that much depending on how they viewed him vs Dermott

 

[Menzinger]

Do we just pay a second round pick to dictate who we get to keep?

Depending on what happens at the tdl I won't be surprised to see that happen

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Do we just pay a second round pick to dictate who we get to keep?

This would be my ideal solution. Moving a prospect or roster player has a high chance of burning you like Florida and Vegas. Picks at least aren’t a guarantee that Seattle is getting a gem, and given the Leafs window of contention and recent prospect pool rejuvenation I’d be fine with giving Seattle a 2nd with a “hands off” mandate.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

For the record, the only players that need to protected (unless for some dumb reason we re-sign one of the impending UFAs before the draft) are:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares (must protect, no choice)
Kerfoot
Engvall
Anderson
Brooks
Petan
Malgin

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl
Dermott

Campbell
Hutchinson

And people need to remember that we only lose one. No need to galaxy brain it, protect who you want, see who you lose, move on.

 

[Griffin76]

So this is just a thought. Resign Hyman as cheaply as possible before he has a chance to have some moron GM throw 6mil per at him. Protect 7-3-1.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Hyman, Engvall, Anderson (or top 6 winger at TDL)- Rielly, Brodie, Dermott - Campbell

Leaving Holl, Muzzin, Hutchinson, Kerfoot, Malgin, Brooks, Petan. Chances are it would be Holl or Kerfoot.

If Kerfoot then it clears 3.5 to put toward Hyman and to resign the vets. Mikheyev is exempt so there's 11 forwards plus the others not taken. Opens a spot for Robertson as well.

If Holl then Dermott or Liljegren fills that spot. Resign Bogosian to be 6 or 7. Lehtonen and Sandin battle it out for third pair LD.

I know keeping Dermott over Holl is not the popular choice around here but we've seen a somewhat steady progression in his development. He's younger. Cheaper. I believe he has a higher ceiling. Can play both sides and up or down in the lineup. Holl scares me to depend on him too much. Remember Zaitsev had one good season and then fell off the track. Just a little leary to invest too much in him.

I'm thinking they take Kerfoot anyway and I think he's the easiest to replace.

Thornton Matthews Marner
Robertson Tavares Nylander
Hyman Engvall Mikheyev
Anderson Spezza Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Dermott Holl
Muzzin Liljegren

Or

Thornton Matthews Marner
Kerfoot Tavares Nylander
Hyman Engvall Mikheyev
Anderson Spezza Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Liljegren
Sandin Dermott

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This would be my ideal solution. Moving a prospect or roster player has a high chance of burning you like Florida and Vegas. Picks at least aren’t a guarantee that Seattle is getting a gem, and given the Leafs window of contention and recent prospect pool rejuvenation I’d be fine with giving Seattle a 2nd with a “hands off” mandate.

Prospects are just as much unknowns.

We've got some prospects we can offer up, but I would just let Seattle take their pick of Kerfoot or Holl. They'll likely take the former.

 

[hockeyes]

Prospects are just as much unknowns.

We've got some prospects we can offer up, but I would just let Seattle take their pick of Kerfoot or Holl. They'll likely take the former.

I take/keep Holl over Kerfoot every day of the week.

 

[aingefan]

For the record, the only players that need to protected (unless for some dumb reason we re-sign one of the impending UFAs before the draft) are:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares (must protect, no choice)
Kerfoot
Engvall
Anderson
Brooks
Petan
Malgin

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl
Dermott

Campbell
Hutchinson

Thanks for posting this.

 

[4thline]

I suppose it would be too much to ask to have them sign Andersen in the early negotiation window and make that their pick

 

[aingefan]

I think the most important thing to realize is if we do nothing we only lose one good piece.

I think we protect Holl because he’s just a better player than Dermott at the moment and we are a team of this moment.

In terms of Engvall he has a unique body and skill set which seems to imply he might have some unique upside but he’s also got a lot of vanilla games. Hard to say.

Kerfoot actually seems like a decent expansion draft pick up.

I guess it will depend on Seattle’s agenda.

Take the most valuable/tradeable?
Take the most competitive?
Take the most projectable for themselves?

Stay the course. I’m okay with losing either Kerfoot or Dermott.

If TD had cemented himself as a viable second pair player this year, I’d give some thought to exposing Muzzin and having the cap space to use elsewhere.

If TD is lost, there’s already in house replacements, and LD are the more plentiful kind including Lehtonen. If Kerf is lost, there’s some cap flexibility and a flat cap and a good chance at getting a comparable player through FA.

 

[TheShape]

Kerfoot can go, 3.5m in cap space is more valuable to the team going forward than Kerfoot himself.

 

[Confucius]

Kerfoot can go, 3.5m in cap space is more valuable to the team going forward than Kerfoot himself.

He's got double the goals Eichel has this year or Taylor Hall for that matter

 

[Its not your fault]

and then you risk losing another player to seattle on TOP of losing dermott.

Which is why you make sure Dermott's value in that trade surpasses in which player you also loose. I would take a high first for him. Plus absorbe any extra loss.