Speculation: Justin Holl Discussion Thread

[zeke]

Why is that worse than taking the word of a public site stat run by people you also don't know?

Because the public stats explain how they do the calculations and are frequently tested by everyone trying to figure out which are the most reliable and predictive, and I can look at their years od data and test it and compare myself in any way I can think of.

Whereas this guys is just saying a random number that I have no idea what it is or what it means.

Surely you see the difference?

 

[Reydin]

Brodie-Holl pairing looks really good to me. Rielly-Lyubushkin did not look too bad except for the too many man penalty. Wild card is Muzzin. Sandin is a fixture in the line up or should be. Liljegren has been not bad at all considering this is his first full season. I do not want him traded. Can we shelter Muzzin? How?

 

[Leafsfan74]

Brodie-Holl pairing looks really good to me. Rielly-Lyubushkin did not look too bad except for the too many man penalty. Wild card is Muzzin. Sandin is a fixture in the line up or should be. Liljegren has been not bad at all considering this is his first full season. I do not want him traded. Can we shelter Muzzin? How?

Shelter Muzzin once he is healthy? Not a chance. He will be back in his shutdown role, clearing the crease, battling opponents and playing with conviction. His return would be huge for this team.

I do hope he takes his time and accepts that he should remain out until the playoffs. Why take any chances with his health when the team is safely in a playoff spot and other players did the same for less career threatening issues?

The reality is that there isn't any urgency for him to return, so, he should heal up and return at 100% and reinvigorated for the postseason.

At worst, in his first game he plays on the third pair and then he is back in the saddle in his usual top four for game two.. That is my take, he.isn't going to forget how to play his game and he isn't going to age 15 years over the next six weeks or so.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Top ten NHL dmen for XGA/60 REL since January 1st (min 400+ 5v5 minutes and 17+ 5v5 minutes a night, 73 dmen total) :
1. Morrisey
2. Doughty
3. Holl
4. Matheson
5. Siegenthaler
6. Orlov
7. Braun
8. Provorov
9. Anderson
10. Ceci

Top ten NHL dmen for GA/60 REL since January 1st: (min 400+ 5v5 minutes and 17+ 5v5 minutes a night, 73 dmen total) :
1. Ceci
2. Holl
3. Heskenin
4. Dobson
5. Maatta
6. Suter
7. Fowler
8. Dahlin
9. Matheson
10. Jones

Looking at usage, Holl is rocking team D MVP numbers for both expected and actual results this calendar year. Ceci making the board on a 2nd straight team confused as they had heard he was bad but looks good most nights (just like he was here). Holl is the same type of guy as he has a week or two of great play but as soon as he has a questionable game in super tough usage, the folks in the peanut gallery start saying "SEE!!, I TOLD YOU HE WAS BAD!!!".

Anyone with sense not trust these numbers for defence. Some name there you know by merit they good. Defence you have to look. Advanced stat still too basic to judge defence. Defence is strategy like chess and prevent/change outcomes. You have to study the board and plan next move. You must be some sort of god if can measure outcomes that never exist. It easy to think. One bad D position/play wrong, puck go direction x. One good D position/play right, puck go direction y. Every split second of game the outcomes all change if defence position well and do right things. Only thing stat measure is hand pick characteristic to look for it not measure how these outcomes are changing.

Maybe in year 2050 they will have stat to judge D by just looking at number but people going to make fun of this place if keep using these stat for individual defender.

After expansion Kraken, Holl put trade block asap and already scratch twice. NHL team not using these numbers to judge D so why are you? We should follow you and not professional NHL? Adventure to other hockey place and they know Holl is not good defenceman. Actually I think it not problem because if make Holl poll here I think majorly will say he not good, so this place okay.

 

[Zybalto]

Anyone with sense not trust these numbers for defence. Some name there you know by merit they good. Defence you have to look. Advanced stat still too basic to judge defence. Defence is strategy like chess and prevent/change outcomes. You have to study the board and plan next move. You must be some sort of god if can measure outcomes that never exist. It easy to think. One bad D position/play wrong, puck go direction x. One good D position/play right, puck go direction y. Every split second of game the outcomes all change if defence position well and do right things. Only thing stat measure is hand pick characteristic to look for it not measure how these outcomes are changing.

Maybe in year 2050 they will have stat to judge D by just looking at number but people going to make fun of this place if keep using these stat for individual defender.

After expansion Kraken, Holl put trade block asap and already scratch twice. NHL team not using these numbers to judge D so why are you? We should follow you and not professional NHL? Adventure to other hockey place and they know Holl is not good defenceman. Actually I think it not problem because if make Holl poll here I think majorly will say he not good, so this place okay.

Teams don't use goals against to judge D? I'm not sure what to say about that one.

As far as Holl on the trade block stuff goes, I could understand somewhat as the team is super high on Lilegren/Sandin (with good reason). Holl has been pretty effective in his role though but I do think the Leafs are looking at a Gio/deHann for this years playoff run. With Holl finding chemistry with Brodie to go along with Muzzin, in very tough minutes too, it makes Dermott the odd man out (or at least first out). If injuries happen, Holl is more valuable to step up than Dermott IMO.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Teams don't use goals against to judge D? I'm not sure what to say about that one.

As far as Holl on the trade block stuff goes, I could understand somewhat as the team is super high on Lilegren/Sandin (with good reason). Holl has been pretty effective in his role though but I do think the Leafs are looking at a Gio/deHann for this years playoff run. With Holl finding chemistry with Brodie to go along with Muzzin, in very tough minutes too, it makes Dermott the odd man out (or at least first out). If injuries happen, Holl is more valuable to step up than Dermott IMO.

The advance stats overall you use to show holl is good, not just the one in specific post i quote.

What kind of comment is "Teams don't use goals against to judge D?" as if I said not. Obvious the goals against spark a whole adventure into look into what happened / is happening when these goals go in and on flip side you still have to analyze properly what is happening when they don't go in either to make sure it don't start going in, in the future.


You are right from depth point of view with Holl but that only relative to Leaf. They don't want him in the top 4, it was purely logistic reasons he's here still. It seem more Dubas didn't get his asking price so it better to just keep him because he more valuable to us than he is to other team. That doesnt make him a good D it just mean our D need lots of help in top 4 so stuck with this guy for now because sadly the drop off is even worse, similar how you are saying Holl is valuable to step up than Dermott etc. That does not tell much because Dermott has play himself out of future plans.


I forget to mention there is still distrust from dubas as of march if sandin and lil is top 4 for playoffs, so holl on trade block all way in october still show they don't think he's a D good enough for their ideal playoff visions.

 

[Menzinger]

Stats aside He's also looked good when playing with Brodie

 

[Holls Blackmail]

I had some time tonight so I came up with a list of things I hate more than Justin Holl:




/end of list

 

[zeke]

 

[Holls Blackmail]

Any videos of him not being able to take an easy pass, fumbling the puck in his skates and causing an icing because he panicked and fired it down the ice?

His f***Upx60 was through the roof.

 

[zeke]

Any videos of him not being able to take an easy pass, fumbling the puck in his skates and causing an icing because he panicked and fired it down the ice?

His f***Upx60 was through the roof.

No there's no video of that.

 

[Zybalto]

Looking at the 78 Dmen who have played both 800+ 5v5 minutes and averaging at least 17 5v5 minutes a night since November 1st, here are the top rankings for both expected goal and actual goal differential:

xGF%:
1. McAvoy
2. Ekblad
3. Makar
4. Weegar
5. Toews
6. Heiskanen
7. Holl
8. Slavin
9. Hedman
10. Matheson

GF%:

1. Makar
2. Toews
3. Faulk
4. Forsling
5. Skjei
6. Ekblad
7. Dumoulin
8. Holl
9. McAvoy
10. Ekholm

Hope Holl isn't out long term as, outside of that rough first month, he has been one of the more solid 4's in the league on both the analytic side and the actual outcomes.

 

[Skullz]

He has been really good ever since playing with someone besides Muzzin. Seems as if he is the clear number 2 on a pairing he is excellent.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

Update on injury

 

[zeke]

Looking at the 78 Dmen who have played both 800+ 5v5 minutes and averaging at least 17 5v5 minutes a night since November 1st, here are the top rankings for both expected goal and actual goal differential:

xGF%:
1. McAvoy
2. Ekblad
3. Makar
4. Weegar
5. Toews
6. Heiskanen
7. Holl
8. Slavin
9. Hedman
10. Matheson

GF%:

1. Makar
2. Toews
3. Faulk
4. Forsling
5. Skjei
6. Ekblad
7. Dumoulin
8. Holl
9. McAvoy
10. Ekholm

Hope Holl isn't out long term as, outside of that rough first month, he has been one of the more solid 4's in the league on both the analytic side and the actual outcomes.

The names here that actually face top matchup duty and heavy dzone usage:

McAvoy
Ekblad
Weegar
Holl
Heiskenan
Slavin
Dumoulin
Faulk
Ekholm

 

[cipher]

My main issue with Holl is his ability to process a play when he has the puck has become to slow for this level. Too often he has the puck in our end and once the opposition attacks him he almost always end up on the boards tied up in a puck battle when 2-3 seconds earlier he had time to make a play or get it out of our zone. You can almost see him thinking what he should do with the puck, as he completely slows down during these moments, and that is a no-go for this level of hockey where almost instant reaction is needed.

I don't recall him playing with this level of uncertainty/hesitation in past years so I'm not sure if it's a confidence issue or something else.

 

[IPS]

Looking at the 78 Dmen who have played both 800+ 5v5 minutes and averaging at least 17 5v5 minutes a night since November 1st, here are the top rankings for both expected goal and actual goal differential:

xGF%:
1. McAvoy
2. Ekblad
3. Makar
4. Weegar
5. Toews
6. Heiskanen
7. Holl
8. Slavin
9. Hedman
10. Matheson

GF%:

1. Makar
2. Toews
3. Faulk
4. Forsling
5. Skjei
6. Ekblad
7. Dumoulin
8. Holl
9. McAvoy
10. Ekholm

Hope Holl isn't out long term as, outside of that rough first month, he has been one of the more solid 4's in the league on both the analytic side and the actual outcomes.

So Holl > Hedman defensively confirmed?

There was also many stats referenced last year where Holl finished ahead of Hedman (and every other Tampa D) in these advanced defensive stats.

 

[Zybalto]

So Holl > Hedman defensively confirmed?

There was also many stats referenced last year where Holl finished ahead of Hedman (and every other Tampa D) in these advanced defensive stats.

xGF% is the expected goal differential.

GF% is goal differential.

Neither stat isolates D.

Hedman is a number 1 and Holl is a number 4 and Hedman is obviously the more important player and is lights out better in more than a few areas. You really do have to look at the roles of players, their usage and how they perform in that usage.

Just looking at the D end of things, one of the best players in the NHL to have on the ice this season has been Holl. From that list, his -.76 5v5 goals/60 fewer given up relative his teammates would rank 6th lowest out of 78 and that's despite the tough usage. I know things have been sketchy in net which may skew things but that doesn't take away from the fact that if you saw a goal go in with Holl out there, it was pretty rare compared to other dmen. (and Holl has solid analytics too)

I mean, Hedman gets beat quite a bit but his great offensive instincts help make people forget about his lapses quite easily. It would be a huge waste to use him in a more pure shutdown role like Holl is in most of the time too. Holl is actually no slouch in his role of sending things the other way either, just does it differently.

Looking at all the numbers, including the most important ones, the end results, he's a steal at on 2 million, thats for sure. He's not perfect but certainly a solid piece in the defensive depth we've built the last couple of years (and we've needed it). I think the Leafs in general are at a better place defensively than they have been in decades. (outside the injury bug right now of course)

 

[IPS]

I mean, Hedman gets beat quite a bit but his great offensive instincts help make people forget about his lapses quite easily. It would be a huge waste to use him in a more pure shutdown role like Holl is in most of the time too. Holl is actually no slouch in his role of sending things the other way either, just does it differently.

Yes I get that. Tampa uses McDonagh/Cernak how Toronto uses Holl. And I'm pretty certain there defensive stats referenced last year where Holl came out ahead of these guys. Personally I just can't wrap my head around Holl being better defensively than either of those guys.

Eventually, the actual GA's are going to have to start reflecting how allegedly elite Toronto is defensively. They've been in the 10-15 range for years now and it's been a constant. Blaming the goaltending just looks like the easy thing to do to justify this, but Toronto's high risk style has a lot to do with it as well. Our D get the green light to pinch basically at will and while that's good for jacking up the possession numbers, it really does make it so the opposing team doesn't need many HDSC's to score on us. I don't know if there's a stat that tracks odd-man rushes / breakaways but I would wager Toronto is near the top of that.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Guys like Marty and Holl are why I don't trust a single CURRENT advanced stat measurement .. it is simply too early in advanced stats to even know anything .. hockey guys look at hockey skills .. when you look at their skill measurements it shows AHL tweener types

 

[zeke]

So Holl > Hedman defensively confirmed?

There was also many stats referenced last year where Holl finished ahead of Hedman (and every other Tampa D) in these advanced defensive stats.

Have you ever considered that Hedman might not be great defensively?

 

[zeke]

Yes I get that. Tampa uses McDonagh/Cernak how Toronto uses Holl. And I'm pretty certain there defensive stats referenced last year where Holl came out ahead of these guys. Personally I just can't wrap my head around Holl being better defensively than either of those guys.

Eventually, the actual GA's are going to have to start reflecting how allegedly elite Toronto is defensively. They've been in the 10-15 range for years now and it's been a constant. Blaming the goaltending just looks like the easy thing to do to justify this, but Toronto's high risk style has a lot to do with it as well. Our D get the green light to pinch basically at will and while that's good for jacking up the possession numbers, it really does make it so the opposing team doesn't need many HDSC's to score on us. I don't know if there's a stat that tracks odd-man rushes / breakaways but I would wager Toronto is near the top of that.

Leafs and Bolts finished 6th and 7th in actual goals against last year.

And I think you'll agree Vasi gives them a teensy bit of an edge in net.

 

[notdoneyet]

If holl is your number 2 you aren’t winning a cup

He is slow and soft

Cant clear the front of the net

 

[zeke]

It's bizarre when people call Holl slow. It's like they don't even even watch.

 

[IPS]

Leafs and Bolts finished 6th and 7th in actual goals against last year.

And I think you'll agree Vasi gives them a teensy bit of an edge in net.

Since Keefe replaced Babcock Toronto's 12th in GA

In the 19-20 season they were 25th in GA

In the 20-21 season they were 7th

This year they're 17th thus far

The larger body of work says they're in that 10-15 range.