Value of: JT Miller to the Leafs.

[7even]

First off, the offers you proposed are nowhere near Miller’s value. Once again we need quality not quantity or we will gladly hold onto him, he’s still young and has another year on his contract after this year.

Secondly, Kyle Burroughs is a RHD and is nowhere near our problem this season, he’s actually done a solid job as a #6 dman. We don’t want Kerfoot, Ritchie etc. We want a 1st and Top prospect or a Young future top RHD

I don't think there's precedent for an acquisition like this returning a player like that. Young future top RHDs don't get traded, nevermind for a scoring winger.

I think the proper scaffolding for a JT Miller acquisition is the Jake Muzzin trade -- a 1st and two good prospects, neither bluechips. The players had similar levels of competence at their positions at similar ages with similar contract status.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

I don't think there's precedent for an acquisition like this returning a player like that. Young future top RHDs don't get traded, nevermind for a scoring winger.

I think the proper scaffolding for a JT Miller acquisition is the Jake Muzzin trade -- a 1st and two good prospects, neither bluechips. The players had similar levels of competence at their positions at similar ages with similar contract status.

I see what you’re saying, but Miller has an additional year on his contract he’s not a rental. Not to mention he’s on a very affordable contract just over 5 million per, and has been our best forward all year and a PPG. He can also play all three forward positions and anywhere in the lineup. He elevates his game in the playoffs and has a mean streak. He’s the perfect deadline acquisition for any team. There’s going to be a huge bidding war.

 

[7even]

I see what you’re saying, but Miller has an additional year on his contract he’s not a rental. Not to mention he’s on a very affordable contract just over 5 million per, and has been our best forward all year and a PPG. He can also play all three forward positions and anywhere in the lineup. He elevates his game in the playoffs and has a mean streak. He’s the perfect deadline acquisition for any team. There’s going to be a huge bidding war.

Muzzin had the same contract status, the current year and the one after.

By all means squeeze the grape for all the wine it's got, but I think that trade represents a decent set-point upon which you can ballpark a return, depending on what the market layout does end up being.

 

[seanlinden]

I see what you’re saying, but Miller has an additional year on his contract he’s not a rental. Not to mention he’s on a very affordable contract just over 5 million per, and has been our best forward all year and a PPG. He can also play all three forward positions and anywhere in the lineup. He elevates his game in the playoffs and has a mean streak. He’s the perfect deadline acquisition for any team. There’s going to be a huge bidding war.

Muzzin also had an extra year on his deal, and a bit of a mean streak, along with a ring.

Is Miller worth more? certainly possible with Miller being younger, likely more versatile, and if Vancouver is retaining 50%.

The challenge is -- there are 12 teams that are projected to end the season with more than $2m in cap space (what you'd need to take Miller at the full $5.25m), and none of them are really spectacular teams.

Even if you retain 50%, a team is likely going to need to clear out at least a $2.5m player to make room for him.... and most good teams like their $2.5m players.

You say you want a future top RHD, while I can understand and appreciate that wish, it's important to consider that if a team has a player of that projected ilk, they're probably considered untouchable. LA isn't trading Brandt Clarke, Anaheim isn't trading Jamie Drysdale, New York isn't trading Braden Schneider, Detroit isn't trading Moritz Seider, Arizona isn't trading Victor Soderstrom. I'd question whether Edmonton would trade Evan Bouchard.

You rarely, rarely, see player-for-premier young asset type of deals. When doing "now-for-future" trades, especially among the more valuable guys, it's always multiple pieces on the other end.

Would the Leafs move Liljegren if that is the guy the Canucks really wanted? probably... but the kind of deal that they move Liljegren in is going to be a lot less appealing in terms of other assets than the kind of deal they move their 1st, or even Robertson in.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Leafs should just stand pat. How many assets have they already burned only for this core to shit the bed repeatedly in the playoffs? I am not wasting any more assets till these guys show they can actually win in the playoffs. Giving up a ludicrous package for JT Miller is insanity when it might not move the needle at all at the end of the day.

 

[Boondock]

If the Canucks don't want / need a first out of the deal, I can certainly see the Leafs parting with a top prospect.

As for the "LHD" -- Canucks have Hughes, OEL, and Kyle Burroughs.... sure, Hughes is great, and OEL is still pretty solid, but Travis Dermott is a fiarly substantial upgrade on Kyle Burroughs. He's also only 24 years old and shown the ability to play the right side.

Ultimately, I think Kerfoot makes more sense as the "salary" than Ritchie does. He's a better player, while Miller does everything that Kerfoot does, and if doing that, perhaps the Leafs can keep Dermott instead of having to do the Dermott-Schenn swap.

Maybe you do something along the lines of:
To Vancouver: Kerfoot, Robertson or Amirov, 2022 2nd Round Pick, 2023 3rd Round Pick
To Toronto: Miller @ 50% Retained, 2022 3rd Round Pick

If the Cancuks had a 2nd this year, then yes, forsure, give up Toronto's 1st and get Vancouver's 2nd back, and don't really have to value it on the same level as a Robertson/Amirov, but Toronto is already woefully short on picks, and Vancouvers 2nd best pick in the draft is Winnipeg's 3rd rounder.

The ask would be for a top 6 forward with a large list of other positives from a trade value perspective. If the Leafs are unable or unwilling to part with a 1st and a top prospect (3-5 on the list) then Miller is not a target.

As for Vancouver's LHD, you think there is value in an upgrade to the 3rd pairing LHD on a team with Rathbone in the AHL and Hughes and OEL signed for more than $7 each for the long term. Dermott is an upgrade to Burroughs (who happens to be RHD) but carries no value in a trade for Miller - If the Leafs want the Canucks to take on the additional salary - sure, but as an asset, lower the rest of the return, it makes zero sense. The ability to play the right side is not what the Canucks need. They need a RHD to pair with Hughes for the next 5-7 years and Dermott isn't that.

Canucks giving up picks also makes no sense for a team with few prospects and very little draft equity over the past 8 years because Benning loves to throw in that extra pick. Van's #2 and Tor #1 are probably going to be 5-8 picks apart. So again not good value.

Your offer doesn't come close to either addressing a need or providing value for the Canucks. Kerfoot, is not a Miller replacement. Robertson and Amirov are both wingers (the one position outside of LHD the Canucks have players. The package would need to be 1st + Niemela with more added for retention.
That is the price for players of Miller's caliber.

This doesn't mean the Leafs would be in, but anything short of that type of value would be a loss for Vancouver - something too many people in VanCity don't seem to be overly bothered by anymore.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Muzzin also had an extra year on his deal, and a bit of a mean streak, along with a ring.

Is Miller worth more? certainly possible with Miller being younger, likely more versatile, and if Vancouver is retaining 50%.

The challenge is -- there are 12 teams that are projected to end the season with more than $2m in cap space (what you'd need to take Miller at the full $5.25m), and none of them are really spectacular teams.

Even if you retain 50%, a team is likely going to need to clear out at least a $2.5m player to make room for him.... and most good teams like their $2.5m players.

You say you want a future top RHD, while I can understand and appreciate that wish, it's important to consider that if a team has a player of that projected ilk, they're probably considered untouchable. LA isn't trading Brandt Clarke, Anaheim isn't trading Jamie Drysdale, New York isn't trading Braden Schneider, Detroit isn't trading Moritz Seider, Arizona isn't trading Victor Soderstrom. I'd question whether Edmonton would trade Evan Bouchard.

You rarely, rarely, see player-for-premier young asset type of deals. When doing "now-for-future" trades, especially among the more valuable guys, it's always multiple pieces on the other end.

Would the Leafs move Liljegren if that is the guy the Canucks really wanted? probably... but the kind of deal that they move Liljegren in is going to be a lot less appealing in terms of other assets than the kind of deal they move their 1st, or even Robertson in.

Great post thank you. I think Rangers would defintely give up Schneider in a Miller deal though. They have Fox, Trouba and Lundqvist for the future

 

[elitepete]

Who said I was offended? You clearly don't know anything about the players we're talking about, so I'd just say you're ignorant.

Whatever makes you feel better. Liljegren sucks.

 

[elitepete]

Podkolzin, despite being a good young player with a lot of promise, only has 5 pts in 20 GP. Not exactly numbers you'd want drawn up from your 2nd/3rd liners.

to put it in perspective, 38 year old Jason Spezza, Defensive minded David Kampf, and 4th liner Wayne Simmonds all have more points than Vasili.

Which kind of goes back to my original point. If I were foolish enough to think that a 20 year old [Podkolzin] playing in his first NHL season would stay in his current role for the entirety of his career I would be dead ass wrong. Podkolzin will likely progress into a more meaningful role in due time. Same with Timmy. Not sure why anyone would label Timmy as a bottom pairing guy as if he has plateaued over his 27 NHL GP

He's 22 years old, and currently plays on the bottom pairing of a team that is allowing the 2nd fewest goals/GP in the NHL. Anyone who has eyes, and has watched a Leafs game this year would be able to tell you Timmy has been absolutely outstanding. Not to mention anyone who watched him with the Marlies for the last 2-3 years.

I never suggested Podkolzin is actually a 4th line grinder. Someone on here suggested that a package involving Timmy as part of a return is not good because he is a bottom pairing guy. Insinuating that he will never progress beyond that. Which is stupid. Just as stupid as me insinuating Podkolzin is a 4th line grinder. It was intended to be a stupid statement, to illustrate just how dumb the original claim of Timmy as a bottom pairing guy was.

As for Leaf fans thinking their young players are better than they actually are, it's almost as if you didn't see where I am from. Remember this dumb f***ing market that stitched a Gretzky clapper next to a Pettey clapper 2 years ago and talked about a single slap shot goal for almost 2 weeks? Remember when this fanbase almost burnt the city down after trading away future "franchise centremen" Cody Hodgson away, only to see him out of the show 4 years later? Remember when "the peoples show" had a poll this summer suggesting Bo Horvat should make team Canada over Mitch Marner? to which countless morons called in to provide their idiotically biased opinions.

This shit happens for every fanbase... Vancouver fans are every bit as obnoxious as Leaf fans.

Lmao someone is butthurt. I was going to respond to your nonsense about Podkolzin but the rest of your post is a joke. Insulting our fanbase and market by just making up bullshit. Well done.

All because I have a different opinion than you on Timothy f***ing Liljegren

 

[seanlinden]

Great post thank you. I think Rangers would defintely give up Schneider in a Miller deal though. They have Fox, Trouba and Lundqvist for the future

Yeah, maybe they would... but I think as far as "future top RHDs go" -- I'd question whether Schneider has that upside. For simplicity, I had included all of the recent top ~20 draft pick defencemen, Schnieder got there for the same reasons Schenn was drafted 5th overall -- he's a safe pick.

 

[seanlinden]

The ask would be for a top 6 forward with a large list of other positives from a trade value perspective. If the Leafs are unable or unwilling to part with a 1st and a top prospect (3-5 on the list) then Miller is not a target.

As for Vancouver's LHD, you think there is value in an upgrade to the 3rd pairing LHD on a team with Rathbone in the AHL and Hughes and OEL signed for more than $7 each for the long term. Dermott is an upgrade to Burroughs (who happens to be RHD) but carries no value in a trade for Miller - If the Leafs want the Canucks to take on the additional salary - sure, but as an asset, lower the rest of the return, it makes zero sense. The ability to play the right side is not what the Canucks need. They need a RHD to pair with Hughes for the next 5-7 years and Dermott isn't that.

Canucks giving up picks also makes no sense for a team with few prospects and very little draft equity over the past 8 years because Benning loves to throw in that extra pick. Van's #2 and Tor #1 are probably going to be 5-8 picks apart. So again not good value.

Your offer doesn't come close to either addressing a need or providing value for the Canucks. Kerfoot, is not a Miller replacement. Robertson and Amirov are both wingers (the one position outside of LHD the Canucks have players. The package would need to be 1st + Niemela with more added for retention.
That is the price for players of Miller's caliber.

This doesn't mean the Leafs would be in, but anything short of that type of value would be a loss for Vancouver - something too many people in VanCity don't seem to be overly bothered by anymore.

Did Muzzin yield a 1st and a top prospect? no, he didn't. He got a 1st, Sean Durzi, and Carl Grundstrom. While both have blossomed into NHL players, Grundstrom was always viewed as a reasonably good bet to make the NHL, but limited in overall upside. Durzi was ~6 months removed from being drafted towards the end of the 2nd round as an overager. He hadn't done much to change his stock since then.

As for "value"; yes, Dermott does have value. He's a substantial upgrade on everyone on the roster except for OEL, Hughes & Myers. He's shown the ability to play both sides, is locked up to a very reasonable $1.5m deal, and fits the age bracket of the Canucks core.

Similar for Kerfoot, who likely slots in as immediate replacement centre. No, he's not JT Miller, but he is a competent middle-6 that the team will need if they're going to try and retool on the fly. If they're intent on blowing it up this year, then maybe Kerfoot goes in another deal / 3-way deal so the Canucks can get a 2nd rounder.

Maybe the more logical deal is Kerfoot (perhaps flipped for a 2nd), Robertson, Toronto's 2nd, and some sort of conditional 2024 pick based on the Leafs success.

You get a potential dynamic goalscorer that can immediately step into the lineup (1st round equivalent likely), and a pair of 2nd rounders.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Whatever makes you feel better. Liljegren sucks.

Really doubling down on that whole not knowing anything about the player.

 

[elitepete]

Did Muzzin yield a 1st and a top prospect? no, he didn't. He got a 1st, Sean Durzi, and Carl Grundstrom. While both have blossomed into NHL players, Grundstrom was always viewed as a reasonably good bet to make the NHL, but limited in overall upside. Durzi was ~6 months removed from being drafted towards the end of the 2nd round as an overager. He hadn't done much to change his stock since then.

As for "value"; yes, Dermott does have value. He's a substantial upgrade on everyone on the roster except for OEL, Hughes & Myers. He's shown the ability to play both sides, is locked up to a very reasonable $1.5m deal, and fits the age bracket of the Canucks core.

Similar for Kerfoot, who likely slots in as immediate replacement centre. No, he's not JT Miller, but he is a competent middle-6 that the team will need if they're going to try and retool on the fly. If they're intent on blowing it up this year, then maybe Kerfoot goes in another deal / 3-way deal so the Canucks can get a 2nd rounder.

Maybe the more logical deal is Kerfoot (perhaps flipped for a 2nd), Robertson, Toronto's 2nd, and some sort of conditional 2024 pick based on the Leafs success.

You get a potential dynamic goalscorer that can immediately step into the lineup (1st round equivalent likely), and a pair of 2nd rounders.

This is not a good offer at all. Kerfoot or Dermott are fine as salary dumps. Vancouver has no interest in giving up value from the rest of the trade to get them. We would rather take what the Wild have already offered for Miller over that. If you feel like you can get a 2nd for Kerfoot, then go ahead and do that.

The trade would have to be one of Robertson, Amirov, or maybe Sandin plus a 2022 1st for Miller. Then add a 2nd rounder or something equivalent that we would want for the 50% retention. Whatever contracts are needed to make the salary work can be added.

 

[seanlinden]

Leafs should just stand pat. How many assets have they already burned only for this core to shit the bed repeatedly in the playoffs? I am not wasting any more assets till these guys show they can actually win in the playoffs. Giving up a ludicrous package for JT Miller is insanity when it might not move the needle at all at the end of the day.

To be fair, the Leafs do have a few "expiring" assets for whom it may make sense to do a JT Miller deal, especially if you get a guy on a ~$2.6m contract for next year.

Realistically, the Leafs need to ask themselves if they're going to give Nick Robertson a legitimate chance to make this team. They gave him a shot in the Columbus series and he looked decent. They filled the roster with "projects" who were not waiver-exempt in fall 2020, and did the same thing this year with Mikheyev, Engvall, Ritchie, Bunting & Kase.

If they're not going to give him a realistic shot, move him to somewhere that is. Furthermore, if you sub-out Kerfoot for JT Miller and save a much needed $850k in doing so, you've made a pretty substantial upgrade in terms of line driving and physicality in your top 6.

If all that upgrade costs you is a player you're not going to give a shot to anyways, and maybe a 2nd round pick, it really might not be the worst possible idea. Toronto doesn't have a ton of cap flexibility. It's going to be very hard to upgrade if you're trying to keep the spends similar to a guy like Mikheyev.

 

[seanlinden]

This is not a good offer at all. Kerfoot or Dermott are fine as salary dumps. Vancouver has no interest in giving up value from the rest of the trade to get them. We would rather take what the Wild have already offered for Miller over that. If you feel like you can get a 2nd for Kerfoot, then go ahead and do that.

The trade would have to be one of Robertson, Amirov, or maybe Sandin plus a 2022 1st for Miller. Then add a 2nd rounder or something equivalent that we would want for the 50% retention. Whatever contracts are needed to make the salary work can be added.

Call me crazy, but I don't believe Miller gets 2 1sts. Sandin's untouchable, and realistically, both Robertson & Amirov are valued like 1sts.

More likely, a first and 2 seconds... which is essentially what Kerfoot/Robertson or Amirov/2nd Rounder boils down to.

Want the optics of a first and a top prospect? Honestly, I can see the Leafs doing that because of their confidence in their scouting ability and woeful shortage of picks this year. The problem is, Vancouver isn't exactly flush with draft picks this year either.

They don't have their 2nd, and the 3rd they do have is Winnipeg's. Not much in the way of UFAs / Rentals to help accumulate more picks either. MAYBE Toronto does Kerfoot/Robertson/1st, but I'd imagine that at the very least, Winnipeg's 3rd rounder is coming along with Miller.

 

[elitepete]

Call me crazy, but I don't believe Miller gets 2 1sts. Sandin's untouchable, and realistically, both Robertson & Amirov are valued like 1sts.

More likely, a first and 2 seconds... which is essentially what Kerfoot/Robertson or Amirov/2nd Rounder boils down to.

Blake Coleman who is a worse player and has been vastly outproduced by Miller the last few years got 2 firsts. Miller will get 2 firsts.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Leafs should just stand pat. How many assets have they already burned only for this core to shit the bed repeatedly in the playoffs? I am not wasting any more assets till these guys show they can actually win in the playoffs. Giving up a ludicrous package for JT Miller is insanity when it might not move the needle at all at the end of the day.

As of my writing this post they are tied for 1st in the NHL surely You don't expect them to stand pat

 

[34]

Leafs should just stand pat. How many assets have they already burned only for this core to shit the bed repeatedly in the playoffs? I am not wasting any more assets till these guys show they can actually win in the playoffs. Giving up a ludicrous package for JT Miller is insanity when it might not move the needle at all at the end of the day.

I fully agree with this. Miller is not worth anything close to the obnoxious proposals in this thread. Leave it the way it is, this Toronto team is rolling!