Friedman: JT Miller to get the Zibanejad contract?

[majormajor]

I think $9m x 5 years would be more appropriate. 8 years is a bad idea for the Canucks.

 

[Strangelove]

Friedman's navel-gazing is worthless...

 

[Guardian452]

Any term beyond a player’s age 33 year is almost guaranteed to be a mistake, unless that player is named Ovechkin, Chara or Jagr.

 

[themelkman]

I think $9m x 5 years would be more appropriate. 8 years is a bad idea for the Canucks.

Of course it is, but thats what the player will want

 

[PettersonHughes]

If we can get him for $8.5 years for 6 years or less, I hope they sign him.
Drive Boeser to the airport, but Miller's basically been the play driver for the team lately, and I wouldn't be surprised if his play is sustainable for a couple years into the next contract.

 

[Mal Reynolds]

I appear to be in the minority with my take but I actually see his game aging decently. His game isn't necessarily based on speed, he's strong as an ox and a fairly smart player (y'know, when he isn't being a bozo )

Not every mid 30s player is a worthless cap anchor

That being said, I think you lean hard for certain concessions if you give him the 8 years (ie limited trade protection in the back end of the contract, try and structure the deal so most money is paid out 5/6 years in, etc etc) so you have options when the wheels do start to fall off

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

$6.5-7M for 3-4 years would be ideal.

 

[smoneil]

As good as Miller's been this year, I have a strong feeling that Vancouver is going to regret a deal like that a lot sooner than they think.

Zibanejad is a year younger than Miller will be when he begins his deal. He's put up the big numbers for a little longer than Miller has, and I think he plays a style likely to age a little better than Miller.

Zibanejad is also a center 100% of the time. Miller seems to line up at wing far more often. Not a knock. Just wondering if part-time centers get the same "position bump" on the contract as full-time centers.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Seems about right. Good for him.

 

[BB88]

$6.5-7M for 3-4 years would be ideal.

No kidding, but zero chance the player agrees

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

No kidding, but zero chance the player agrees

That's why I said, "ideal".

 

[StickShift]

The dilemma for the Canucks is would you rather:

(A) let go of a 1C and begin a search for a new one.​

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or​

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(B) accept a greater than likely risk that his play will drop below his contracted values in only a few years.​

​

On one hand—some teams go 10+ years without having a 1C like JT Miller.
On the other hand—the buyout terms on such a contract look downright scary.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Ooof, that is steep. I just don’t get why gms keep doing this to themselves. There is a good chance he might not be worth that contract for the whole duration of it. You’re not buying his best years, his best years may in fact been the last couple of seasons. Sometimes these guys have very short peaks. It is a gamble for sure.

Because by the time that matters they probably won't have the job.

 

[kcunac]

Friedman didn't actually say 8 years - did he?.

8.5 is fine for JT, but depends on term. If they do give him 8 years then yeah bad deal. 5 is ok. Honestly should probably trade him but difficult when he is so good. He's in getting into the top 5 players we've ever had for our franchise (in terms of peak, not career).

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

$6.5-7M for 3-4 years would be ideal.

Yeah thats not happening.

 

[Lays]

8.5 x 8 is fair for Miller imo

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

$8.5m is 10% of the cap, and is the equivalent to a $4.067m/yr deal back in 2005/2006 when the cap was introduced.
For reference at that time, Todd Bertuzzi made $5.269m, Naslund made $6m, and Brendan Morrison made $3.2m.

yeah but nobody wanted any of those three players at basically any number by 2009

can you imagine trying to extend the sedins, luongo, and kesler with naslund and morrison still on the books? let alone adding mitchell/hamhuis, ehrhoff, malhotra, etc?

 

[kanucks25]

$6.5-7M for 3-4 years would be ideal.

That's why I said, "ideal".

I mean using that logic, 8 x league minimum would be "ideal".

 

[UrbanImpact]

8 years is definitely not ideal for the Canucks but I wouldnt be so quick to walk away from that.

-Miller is legit a top 10 forward in the NHL.
- I Don't expect his body to break down as fast as someone like Jamie Benn or Milan Lucic etc.... There is NOT alot of "mileage" on him as before he came to Vancouver, he was a complimentary player playing 10-14 min a night.
- The cap continues to rise, who knows what it will be by the time he is in year 5,6,7 of his deal, would make it easier to move.
- Canucks have a Franchise all world goalie in Demko signed at a ridiculous contract for the next 5 years, they have Quinn for 6, and Petey for X amount of years once he signs new contract. Having a prime and productive Miller for the next 3-4 years will be able to take advantage of those contracts of their core players.
- We see bad contracts get moved every year...there will always be teams like Arizona etc that will eat bad contracts as long as you attach assets with them. If Miller's contract is an anchor in year 5,6,7 then just bite the bullet and move him with assets and rebuild.
- There is also LTIR if Miller's play goes significantly down due to injury.
- You can front load the contract which would make it much much easier to trade him at the tail end of the contract as he wouldnt be owed that much real money.
- I dont think Miller gets 8years but I think its possible he gets 6 or 7.


MY prediction is 7 years 8.75 mil per year.

 

[AcerComputer]

Leafs dump the last 2 years of the JT contract and pay new JT $9M x 7 years.

 

[Szechwan]

Dollar value aside, I'm just not convinced Miller wants to be in Van long term. I would not be shocked at all to see him sign with an up and coming American team. I think he'd be a great fit on the Devils to be honest, although he may want someone more ready to compete.

 

[Shocker]

I think $9m x 5 years would be more appropriate. 8 years is a bad idea for the Canucks.

Yeah, 5 years or even 4 would be optimal for the Canucks, but Miller might push hard for 8.

Would never give him the rumored 8.5mx8, money is fine, term is terrible.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

No shit. This has been known for awhile.

Top notch work Friedman.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Zibanejad is also a center 100% of the time. Miller seems to line up at wing far more often. Not a knock. Just wondering if part-time centers get the same "position bump" on the contract as full-time centers.

This is not true at all.

 

[nergish]

I appear to be in the minority with my take but I actually see his game aging decently. His game isn't necessarily based on speed, he's strong as an ox and a fairly smart player (y'know, when he isn't being a bozo )

Not every mid 30s player is a worthless cap anchor

That being said, I think you lean hard for certain concessions if you give him the 8 years (ie limited trade protection in the back end of the contract, try and structure the deal so most money is paid out 5/6 years in, etc etc) so you have options when the wheels do start to fall off

JT Miller has been great for three straight seasons, but he is clearly peaking right now.
Which also likely means he's actually a bit of a late-bloomer.

I see him being this good for at least two more seasons, slight drop off for the next two. That's still four years of having an elite talent on your roster, from a guy that does absolutely everything you could expect a key player to do.

Blake Wheeler is a pretty decent comparable, and he's still a near-PPG player at 35.
I have no doubt JT Miller will be right there too - he might be an even more impactful player than Wheeler overall.


If we can somehow fit JT in on a "team-friendly" deal, then it needs to be done. If not, we need to get a haul of picks and prospects back to restock the cupboards. Either way, he's not going to be an anchor for whichever team he's playing for, longterm. Even a slightly overpaid 35 year-old JT Miller is the kind of scrappy, veteran-type player that teams win with.