Speculation: JT Miller, Part III

[zcaptain]

Miller had developed in an even better player since coming to Vancouver. I don’t think you can oversell Miller? He’s captain material, is a goal scorer, he’s a playmaker, penalty killer, 1st tier power play guy. Hard worker, shows up every night. He’s a top 10 player in the NHL right now. Has been for a couple years and probably will be for a couple more. I think you’re under selling him a little?

I think this is a fools discussion, in regards to who is better, and trying to justify Miller's value....................

I would say any of the top 30 have similar values..........any for the most part, alot of differences is in style and in who he plays with. (excluding maybe 3 or 4 .....aka McD, Drais, McKinnon, etc)

It is not to say, Point is a worse player, or that Nylander is better, they are all good players, and IMO, a player that is top 30 over the past 3 yearsis not trending, he is. IMO, again, Miller is a top type player this year, and that is where he is at.....no smoke and mirrors, he is there, and he hasdone it. He most definitely does not play on a team that is so deep that the opposition has to spread out their checking forwards, as in Toronto,where their offensive depth forces their opposition to do that. He plays in Vancouver, where he is exactly, what you say he is. A driver of play.

Whether he has a good game or a bad game, it is his overall work that puts him in that discussion.

There is no argument he is less flashy than Panarin, Kane, jack Hughes or or even young Zegras, but would you exclude

McKinnon, Barkov, or Landeskog as anything less. Miller is in that conversation, even though, in some cases they have less points.

Again, it is not about any argument of who is better, but an argument of value of all of them. Again, Miller is in that conversation.

Yes, some are better, yet some are worse, but value wise, most are similar out side of the top 5ish....................when defensive play, position, strength of team-mate, ES/PP/PK, are all put into the mix. All of these players have substantial value. There should be no argument.

 

[zcaptain]

I am just wondering what New York Ranger fans feel Zibanejad value is worth in a trade with St. Louis would be?

Asking as a Canuck fan............any Ranger fans care to answer that?

 

[zcaptain]

I stumble onto some very convincing info.

The basis of my comments are based on a comparison between JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad, so here we go! (Over the last 3 years)

Mika Zibanejad.........
168 GP 181 pts 1.08 G/GP EVP 106 PPP 63 SHP 12 GWG 14 SH% 16.0 TOI 20:34 FO% 49.2 DOB Apr 18, 1993

JT Miller....................
176 GP 179 pts 1.02 G/GP EVP 106 PPP 69 SHP 4 GWG 12 SH% 15.6 TOI 20:36 FF% 55.3 DOB Mar 14, 1993

These guys are identical in their stats, except in FO%, which favors Miller, and plus minus where Zib +29, is greater to Miller's +11, although, it would be an easy argument, that Millers quality of line-mate is greater than Millers, and on a better overall team. In summary of stats, they for all intents and purposes, are close enough to be the be considered of equal quality.



.

 

[AslanRH]

Miller had developed in an even better player since coming to Vancouver. I don’t think you can oversell Miller? He’s captain material, is a goal scorer, he’s a playmaker, penalty killer, 1st tier power play guy. Hard worker, shows up every night. He’s a top 10 player in the NHL right now. Has been for a couple years and probably will be for a couple more. I think you’re under selling him a little?

Seems like a player who doesn't get traded to me. A guy franchises are built around.

Surprised there aren't more rumors of Vancouver locking him up on a new deal that is already on the table, first thing on July 1st.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

Seems like a player who doesn't get traded to me. A guy franchises are built around.

Surprised there aren't more rumors of Vancouver locking him up on a new deal that is already on the table, first thing on July 1st.

It’s a 2-way street… he has to want to resign. So far all indications point to him wanting to go back to US.

 

[jay from jersey]

I am just wondering what New York Ranger fans feel Zibanejad value is worth in a trade with St. Louis would be?

Asking as a Canuck fan............any Ranger fans care to answer that?

It we got eichel, we would have likely self rented Zibby for the playoffs this season....
If not a 1+good prospect would probably have been the ask as he would have been going to UFA status and the team likely trading for him would have resigned him...
You can’t really compare the 2.. Miller has an extra season, and Zibby also had a NMC.

if he’s that important to Van, they should just give him a raise and extend him....
No team is going to give 3-4 A pieces for 1.5 years of miller.
It will likely be like the other trades we’ve seen in the past. 1+ 2 good prospects+ roster player ( short term cap purposes for the trading team) that may work out with a change of scenery..
Playoff teams don’t trade 2-3 guys from their active roster for 1 coming back on a shorter term.
It’s not how it’s done and kind of defeats the purpose....
That’s why they call it TDL additions.....
Any deal is largely futures based of picks and prospects not on the big club currently...

McDonaugh is absolutely a good comp. similar salaries/term. 1C/wing vs 1st pair D being the main difference.. both have a good playoff history and similar age when dealt.
Just ironic that miller was in that deal. At the time NY wasn’t going to extend him to his current contract, they were focused on kreider and Buch.

It’s crazy the way things change in 3-4 years. Anyone planning the team for 5 seasons plus is impossible.... things are too crazy to predict

 

[Cogburn]

I am just wondering what New York Ranger fans feel Zibanejad value is worth in a trade with St. Louis would be?

Asking as a Canuck fan............any Ranger fans care to answer that?

I have posted all the stats and opinions of hockey writers and all that, Rangers fans will not like you for this very close and apt comparison.

 

[Anthony5967]

I have posted all the stats and opinions of hockey writers and all that, Rangers fans will not like you for this very close and apt comparison.

I have no issue with the comparison. Miller has been outstanding. Problem is the Rangers aren’t going to want to move Schneider. The thing is, if Lundkvist was 6-1 or 6-2, as well, they’d probably be comfortable moving Schneider, but the game Braden brings is desired throughout the organization at this stage. Miller is a guy I really want, but can they afford him after two runs? If so, trade Schneider. If not, no. Rangers window isn’t two years. It’s just opening.

 

[nergish]

Seems like a player who doesn't get traded to me. A guy franchises are built around.

Surprised there aren't more rumors of Vancouver locking him up on a new deal that is already on the table, first thing on July 1st.

You're not wrong (even if you are being sardonic).

However, the reality is Skinny Pete and Mighty Mite Hughes are exceptional talents - they're just not physically mature enough to lead this team. They need more time.
They will get there.

Miller, though, is peaking everywhere right now. He is legitimately one of the most well-rounded all star forwards in the game today.

We need younger talent that better lines up with our franchise-level youngsters.

Our team is simply not good enough now, and locking up Miller means we can't really make a lot of changes.
We're grooming Hoglander and Podkolzin to be longterm top 6 forwards, but need similar talent on the backend. Right now there is just nobody in the pipeline for that.

It truly is a strange predicament, one that fans in other markets won't really understand. We have Demko playing exceptional hockey, a nice core, and we're not going to "rebuild". But we do need to make some really bold moves to get younger, and a build a more dynamic team. Miller is simply the player with the most value, so he's being dangled. There absolutely is a world where he re-signs, but we can make this team better overall if moving him for the right package, so it needs to be explored.

 

[Cogburn]

I have no issue with the comparison. Miller has been outstanding. Problem is the Rangers aren’t going to want to move Schneider. The thing is, if Lundkvist was 6-1 or 6-2, as well, they’d probably be comfortable moving Schneider, but the game Braden brings is desired throughout the organization at this stage. Miller is a guy I really want, but can they afford him after two runs? If so, trade Schneider. If not, no. Rangers window isn’t two years. It’s just opening.

Valid points, but it doesn't address the question that was posed. Would Rangers fans accept these kinds of offers for Zibanejad, were they four or five games further behind? Or say this time last year?

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Just potted his 22nd. 9 game point streak.

I don't think he's getting dealt unless it's an overpayment.

 

[beachcomber]

Just potted his 22nd. 9 game point streak.

I don't think he's getting dealt unless it's an overpayment.

Leafs figure they’ll get Miller for a bunch of spare parts.

 

[JohnHodgson]

Leafs figure they’ll get Miller for a bunch of spare parts.

Miller’s arguably the second best forward on the Leafs.

leaf fans: here take Robertson + 1st

 

[Anthony5967]

Valid points, but it doesn't address the question that was posed. Would Rangers fans accept these kinds of offers for Zibanejad, were they four or five games further behind? Or say this time last year?

No, but i think the thought was that Zibanejad was always going to be the best they could do at 1C, and that’s more than fine. He’s a very good player, hence why they re-signed him. I’m thinking Vancouver may do the same. It probably comes down to him or Horvat.

 

[Donuts]

Boeser/garland likely gets dealt before miller unless canucks like the offers

Top prospect, good roster player, 1st to get talks started for miller

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Just potted his 22nd. 9 game point streak.

I don't think he's getting dealt unless it's an overpayment.

It would probably be their best option. There’s too much talent on the Canucks for them to go into a rebuild.

They’re four points out of a playoff spot and even if they don’t make it, they could retool in the off-season and just keep Miller.

 

[Cogburn]

No, but i think the thought was that Zibanejad was always going to be the best they could do at 1C, and that’s more than fine. He’s a very good player, hence why they re-signed him. I’m thinking Vancouver may do the same. It probably comes down to him or Horvat.

With Pettersson playing well at wing, and all the buzz and chatter around Boeser and Garland, I think we're trying to keep Miller. After all, nothing that's been offered will have the impact on our team the way he's looking to.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Seems like a player who doesn't get traded to me. A guy franchises are built around.

Surprised there aren't more rumors of Vancouver locking him up on a new deal that is already on the table, first thing on July 1st.

hes going to be expensive. His age doesn’t exactly mesh with the time frame Canucks will likely take to really compete. There’s rumours he’s not exactly dedicated to being in Vancouver. (Home in Tampa, has stated he wants to win.)

there’s a lot of rationale to trading him

 

[smoneil]

I stumble onto some very convincing info.

The basis of my comments are based on a comparison between JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad, so here we go! (Over the last 3 years)

Mika Zibanejad.........
168 GP 181 pts 1.08 G/GP EVP 106 PPP 63 SHP 12 GWG 14 SH% 16.0 TOI 20:34 FO% 49.2 DOB Apr 18, 1993

JT Miller....................
176 GP 179 pts 1.02 G/GP EVP 106 PPP 69 SHP 4 GWG 12 SH% 15.6 TOI 20:36 FF% 55.3 DOB Mar 14, 1993

These guys are identical in their stats, except in FO%, which favors Miller, and plus minus where Zib +29, is greater to Miller's +11, although, it would be an easy argument, that Millers quality of line-mate is greater than Millers, and on a better overall team. In summary of stats, they for all intents and purposes, are close enough to be the be considered of equal quality.



.

The number you list as "G/GP" is not their goals per game played. It's their points per game played. Zibanejad is the better goal scorer by a significant margin, putting up 86 goals in this stretch to Miller's 63. So Zib's G/GP would be .51, and Miller's would be .36.

Miller does have the advantage in faceoffs, but that is not, as you claimed, the only difference between them. Zibanejad has scored 3x as many SH points and doesn't rely quite as much on PP production for his points. Zib also, as mentioned above, has scored 23 more goals in 8 fewer games than Miller. Both of those are a bit more important than FO% (particularly when Zib's number is dragged down by his miserable year last season when he had Covid. Miller is still better at the dot, but this year, for example, Zib is 52.7% to Miller's 53.4%).

There's also the bit that if you go back a 4th year, Zibanejad adds 82 games, 30G, 44A, and 74 points, while Miller adds 75 games, 13 goals, 34 assists, and 47 points. Before this season, both Miller and Zib have been in the league for 9 seasons. Zib has outscored Miller in 7 of those 9. In both years where Miller had more points, Zibanejad missed games (playing 10 fewer games than Miller in 2017/18 and 26 fewer games than Miller in 2016/2017).

They are not identical. Zib is also signed long-term, so he has that going for him.

 

[smoneil]

Valid points, but it doesn't address the question that was posed. Would Rangers fans accept these kinds of offers for Zibanejad, were they four or five games further behind? Or say this time last year?

The question that was posed presumes that value exists in a vacuum. It doesn't. The Rangers would likely pay more than the has been offered here if we were trading for current Miller two years from now. The team isn't a JT Miller away, and by the time the team WOULD be ready to be a serious threat, Miller will have walked due to cap issues. It's not a "value" problem. It's a "timing" problem.

For most Rangers fans, it's not a question of how good Miller is. It's a question of whether, in 15 months, we want no Cup (plus assets like Schneider+) or no Cup (and no assets like Schneider+). If you don't see the team being a real threat right now, then it's really just throwing away resources for the chance at maybe another round or two of the playoffs (and there are cheaper options we could target that would give the same benefit).

 

[zcaptain]

The number you list as "G/GP" is not their goals per game played. It's their points per game played. Zibanejad is the better goal scorer by a significant margin, putting up 86 goals in this stretch to Miller's 63. So Zib's G/GP would be .51, and Miller's would be .36.

Miller does have the advantage in faceoffs, but that is not, as you claimed, the only difference between them. Zibanejad has scored 3x as many SH points and doesn't rely quite as much on PP production for his points. Zib also, as mentioned above, has scored 23 more goals in 8 fewer games than Miller. Both of those are a bit more important than FO% (particularly when Zib's number is dragged down by his miserable year last season when he had Covid. Miller is still better at the dot, but this year, for example, Zib is 52.7% to Miller's 53.4%).

There's also the bit that if you go back a 4th year, Zibanejad adds 82 games, 30G, 44A, and 74 points, while Miller adds 75 games, 13 goals, 34 assists, and 47 points. Before this season, both Miller and Zib have been in the league for 9 seasons. Zib has outscored Miller in 7 of those 9. In both years where Miller had more points, Zibanejad missed games (playing 10 fewer games than Miller in 2017/18 and 26 fewer games than Miller in 2016/2017).

They are not identical. Zib is also signed long-term, so he has that going for him.

You are right about the G/PG and Pts/PG..........that aside

My comparison was for Millers future contract for the most part....................but these 2 players are very much alike...........in comparison

As most NYR and Vancouver fans would and have agreed.......................Zib is 13 in scoring in the last 3 years, Miller 15th.......................

It is actually funny how close they are

I am not in any way, trying to say one is better than the other, but keep in mind, the NYR, are a more complete team and that helps stats......

I would not mind Miller playing with Panarin............we do not have a Panarin............................

Just consider it, that is all.................no need to be measuring anything, they are very similar, that is all..........not identical (I may have said almost identical)

Anyways..............

 

[Cogburn]

The question that was posed presumes that value exists in a vacuum. It doesn't. The Rangers would likely pay more than the has been offered here if we were trading for current Miller two years from now. The team isn't a JT Miller away, and by the time the team WOULD be ready to be a serious threat, Miller will have walked due to cap issues. It's not a "value" problem. It's a "timing" problem.

For most Rangers fans, it's not a question of how good Miller is. It's a question of whether, in 15 months, we want no Cup (plus assets like Schneider+) or no Cup (and no assets like Schneider+). If you don't see the team being a real threat right now, then it's really just throwing away resources for the chance at maybe another round or two of the playoffs (and there are cheaper options we could target that would give the same benefit).

I agree, value isn't fixed across the board. This is why offers centering around wingers and LHD and other prospects are also being soundly rejected on our side. I'd argue Miller is a player a team should make room for, which I am feeling more and more that we should do.

31 teams are going to have no cup to show for their progression as well, though. That doesn't stop deals and attempts at improving enough from being made. Hell, the Canucks are about to probably make a run along those lines now...

 

[StickShift]

Whether it is Vancouver re-signing Miller, or another team acquiring and re-signing him, or him reaching UFA status…

What do people think JT Miller’s next contract will look like? As a top-10 scorer and all-situation player—surely he is sniffing around the $10m AAV mark, right?

 

[Anthony5967]

Whether it is Vancouver re-signing Miller, or another team acquiring and re-signing him, or him reaching UFA status…

What do people think JT Miller’s next contract will look like? As a top-10 scorer and all-situation player—surely he is sniffing around the $10m AAV mark, right?

No way. I can see $8M-9M, though.

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

I don't see Miller being moved until next year's deadline as a rental, and that's only if Canucks management is certain that Miller either doesn't want to stay or is looking for money and term we can't afford. Bruce B just gave Miller a huge endorsement after yesterday's win against the Leafs. Called him the team's leader on and off the ice.

As far as the Rags go, if Schneider isn't up for grabs, then there's no deal to be made.