Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3
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- Jan 22, 2010
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DylanSensFan
BEESHIP: NBH
I think this is a bit much, don't you? If he's doesn't have 60 to 70 points by the end of the season, then you can call him overpaid. But he is not VASTLY overpaid.
Tuna99
Registered User
- Sep 26, 2009
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Agree, Norris is easily $7 million on the open marketer so he’s overpaid by about 900K
- Jan 22, 2010
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He's on pace for like 48 which is low-2nd / high-3rd line production among centers last year. The problem is he's paid like a good (not great) 1st liner. Last year, guys like Max Domi, Philip Danault, Adam Henrique, and Tommy Novak were around that just with less goals. Even if you add a 'goalscorer premium', he's still not worth anywhere near 7.950
If he gets close to 70 I'll eat crow and be happy to do it.
FTR: I think he's about 2 million (~25%) overpaid.
Do Make Say Think
& Yet & Yet
- Jun 26, 2007
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Chandler Stephenson, as a UFA, got a 7 year deal at $6.25M AAV last summer. Career high of 65 points, but the year before signing, scored 51 points in 75 games. More of a playmaker, not much goal scoring (career high of 21 goals).
If Norris rounds out as a 50-55 point guy (~30 goals), he's probably getting a bit more than Stephenson considering his age, faceoff ability, goals being worth more than assists, etc.
I think FMV would be $6.5M-6.75M for Norris, so he's about $1.25-1.5M overpaid.
If he ups his production to 60-70 points, he's a $7M guy. So we'd be paying market value + the cold weather tax. Not terrible.
Personally I'd still try him on Stützle's wing since I think he can be a 35-40 goal triggerman, but I'm not to coach.
I thought this was interesting:
Honestly we’re probably a better team with Norris at centre because when everyone’s going it allows us to run 4 decent lines, but during one of the cold streaks they really should try Norris on Stützle’s wing. Feels like that would be a game changer if they ended up having great chemistry.
Honestly we’re probably a better team with Norris at centre because when everyone’s going it allows us to run 4 decent lines, but during one of the cold streaks they really should try Norris on Stützle’s wing. Feels like that would be a game changer if they ended up having great chemistry.
Agent Zuuuub
Registered User
- Jan 2, 2015
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that could be so good.
Stutzle is shy about shooting but has creativity up the wazoo.
Norris is a shooter but lacks creativity to take the next step.
And together I think they could also be part of one of the better defensive lines in hockey too.
Stutzle-Norris
Brady-Pinto
Greig-Batherson
as three lines we could roll. and just move Batherson up when a spark is needed.
Stutzle is shy about shooting but has creativity up the wazoo.
Norris is a shooter but lacks creativity to take the next step.
And together I think they could also be part of one of the better defensive lines in hockey too.
Stutzle-Norris
Brady-Pinto
Greig-Batherson
as three lines we could roll. and just move Batherson up when a spark is needed.
I think it'd be an easier switch to make if Pinto was producing well and was busting his way into the top 6... but while he's gotten better recently, he's still not putting up all that much offense.
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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I actually think him on the wing could be really good,
- he could take the draws for Stutzle,
- Adds a shooters mentality to Stu
- Gets Greig playing center on the third line
With a healthy lineup, we have some good options
Norris-Stutzle-Giroux
Tkachuk-Pinto-Batherson
Perron-Greig-Amadio
Cousins-Ostapchuk-Gaudette/Gregor
What's nice about the above setup, is the top 6 lines each have a LH and RH guy that is good at the dot, so we could always be taking the draw on our strong side. Even the 4th line would have a guy for each side if we opt for Gaudette and Ostapchuk.
That said, until we get some bodies back though, our bottom six would look more like this:
Cousins-Greig-Gaudette
Highmore-Ostapchuk-MacEwen
I don't think that third line cuts it, maybe with just Amadio back it would be ok,
Pinto has 11 points in 15 games since his two goal game in Carolina.
I’d probably switch Giroux and Perron, I think Greig would need the faceoff help. But otherwise I like it.
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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Greig is over 52% at the dot, he's actually been pretty good at the dot this year, basically everyone but Stutzle has been good.
He doesn’t take a lot of them though, and my thinking is that if you put Norris with Stützle they’ll probably take less d-zone draws (although maybe not, I just assume they’ll want to maximize their offensive output). If you have Giroux with Greig you can probably give them more of that workload.
He might be overpaid by a $1 million or so, he isn't afraid to block shots, is a beast on the dot, and can still score goals. As he gets more reps in, I think the offence will come.
If he can get going on Stu's wing, it'd be so dope. A shooter who doesn't have the best handles with a fantastic playmaker who doens't use his shot more, could be the perfect blend
If he can get going on Stu's wing, it'd be so dope. A shooter who doesn't have the best handles with a fantastic playmaker who doens't use his shot more, could be the perfect blend
- Jan 22, 2010
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Chandler Stephenson is considered overpaid by most, and some of Norris's contract was RFA years. I do agree Norris is a better player and would probably get ~7.000 as a UFA on the open market by someone willing to overpay what he's actually worth.
Either way - there's clearly two sides of the fence and we are on different sides. It's not a big deal or worth arguing about. I want the team to win and I was on the 'put him on the wing' camp well before they tried it - so I'm hoping that works out. The Sens making the playoffs is all I really care about. Norris could get 1 or 100 points for all I care If we make the playoffs.
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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If Norris is a 30g, 50 pts 2-way center going forward, he's overpaid by as much as 2-3 mil.
That said, he's 25, and has missed a lot of hockey, and is playing in a very low scoring system in a 2nd line role.
You look at guys like JT Miller, he exploded at 26, Hertl was a 50 pts player at 24 yrs old before exploding into a point per game guy, Kreider was a 50 pts guy until he turned 30 and became a close to pt per game guy (there's some ups and downs with him), Zibanejad took off at 25 yrs old,
There's still some room for Norris to find his next gear, particularly since he missed so much hockey.
That said, he's 25, and has missed a lot of hockey, and is playing in a very low scoring system in a 2nd line role.
You look at guys like JT Miller, he exploded at 26, Hertl was a 50 pts player at 24 yrs old before exploding into a point per game guy, Kreider was a 50 pts guy until he turned 30 and became a close to pt per game guy (there's some ups and downs with him), Zibanejad took off at 25 yrs old,
There's still some room for Norris to find his next gear, particularly since he missed so much hockey.
A 25 year old C who scores 30 goals, is good defensively and can play 19-20 minutes a night against top lines is getting more than 4.95-5.95M from every team in the league, except for potentially Florida and Tampa for tax reasons. Maybe 5 years ago that's what he would've gotten.
Owen Tippet is a winger and he just got 8x6.2M for scoring 28 goals and 50 points, and he does nothing for a hockey team other than shoot.
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ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
We paid Norris for his potential. He has the ability to be an 8 mil+ guy.
I entirely agree with the Hertl/JT Miller talk. I'd even say Sam Reinhart/Nico Hischier etc.
There's so much untapped potential there. This is a guy who dominated the AHL finishing 3rd in points as a rookie and 30 goals. 10 goals in 17 games in NCAA before injury. One of the best on his WJC team. He has shown to be among the leaders in skill and performance on whatever team he is on.
The only concern is injuries. Otherwise, I see several 65-70+ point seasons with great 2 way play.
I entirely agree with the Hertl/JT Miller talk. I'd even say Sam Reinhart/Nico Hischier etc.
There's so much untapped potential there. This is a guy who dominated the AHL finishing 3rd in points as a rookie and 30 goals. 10 goals in 17 games in NCAA before injury. One of the best on his WJC team. He has shown to be among the leaders in skill and performance on whatever team he is on.
The only concern is injuries. Otherwise, I see several 65-70+ point seasons with great 2 way play.
I see parallels with Turris: pre-shoulder injury Norris was like pre-gumby Turris, had a terrific shot, was very dynamic, could handle a pass, could do some nifty tic-tac-toe plays with Tkachuk and Batherson (like Turris used to do with Stone and MacArthur). Post-shoulder injury Norris can't handle a pass, can't make passes, doesn't shoot as often, and his shots don't look as scary as they used to. Still, he somehow manages to score at a high rate on the few shots he does take, but I think he's adjusted his play to his new (real or perceived) limitations. He uses his body a lot more (hits, battles along the board, shot blocks), his positioning is more sound.
Pre-injury No-Tu-rris deserved the contract he got. Post-injury No-Tu-rris is overpaid but can still be useful. And who knows, Norris is much younger than Turris was when he got injured, so he might still be able to fully recover and get even better.
Pre-injury No-Tu-rris deserved the contract he got. Post-injury No-Tu-rris is overpaid but can still be useful. And who knows, Norris is much younger than Turris was when he got injured, so he might still be able to fully recover and get even better.
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