Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Orebro, SHL

[WTG]

Rookie pre injury Boeser is a completely different player athletically.

If you are trying to project how Boeser will do based on his performance in his rookie year then you are essentially praying that things will work out.

In the years after his rookie season,
26 goals in 69 games, nice
16 g in 57
23 g in 56
23 in 71
18 in 74
And then this year.
So essentially he’s been on pace for 30 goals like twice after his rookie season and this season is a major outlier. Sorry but it’s hard to be confident based on that history. If we are staring at 7-8 M a year for the next 6-7 years, we need more than oh he is good locker room guy and has chemistry with Miller.

If you take out the outliers where he performs well, and don't take out the outliers where he performs poorly (his dad died), then, of course, you are going to make a player look bad. IDK what your point is at all, it seems like you've already come to the conclusion that Boeser is bad and just work the numbers to make him seem bad.

Out of all the players you listed, I would take anyone of them over Boeser. Taking their career goals/game and points/game without context is meaningless. For example, Forsberg was playing for a defensive team without any top end talent; Larkin was all by himself in Detroit for a long time; Landeskog has other intangibles than just points; Ehlers been buried on L2 and PP2 his whole career, Zibby had a rough start in Ottawa, etc.

On top of that, I think every players mentioned above should/will age better than BB6 simply because they are better skaters and/or better 2-way players. Some are obviously play-driver, which Boeser is not.

I would definitely take those players on a comparable contract over Boeser. I don't feel comfortable committing high cap hit (over $6m AAV) at all to him, unless it is short-ish term.

I'm not arguing you on the fact that some of those players drive play more. But to circle on the point of the post, removing Boeser does not mean you can suddenly replace him. He does score at rates higher than those players minus Forsberg. Where are you going to find that replacement? In UFA for Guentzel and pay even more UFA money?

The Canucks have 1 bonafide top 6 right winger, that's Boeser. If you are going to trade him, who is coming in to replace him? Who is on the 2nd line RW?

 

[logan5]

Bold prediction... Lekk makes the Canucks next year. A 19 year old leading an SHL team is a pretty good indicator that this guy is close to NHL ready, so maybe not so bold.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

If you take out the outliers where he performs well, and don't take out the outliers where he performs poorly (his dad died), then, of course, you are going to make a player look bad. IDK what your point is at all, it seems like you've already come to the conclusion that Boeser is bad and just work the numbers to make him seem bad.

I'm not arguing you on the fact that some of those players drive play more. But to circle on the point of the post, removing Boeser does not mean you can suddenly replace him. He does score at rates higher than those players minus Forsberg. Where are you going to find that replacement? In UFA for Guentzel and pay even more UFA money?

The Canucks have 1 bonafide top 6 right winger, that's Boeser. If you are going to trade him, who is coming in to replace him? Who is on the 2nd line RW?

I think a good manager has to balance the "now" and the "future". In the immediate term, as in next 2 season, it is going to be hard to replace Boeser's offense completely, and nobody expect a rookie JL to come in and do so at like 15% of the cost. HOWEVER, if the alternative is to overpay him to a long term contract that could immediately becomes an anchor? I would rather let him walk. Same rationale for Lindholm, if he wants something like 7 x $7m, he is gone.

Letting Boeser go doesn't mean we just plug a bottom 6 guy in his spot. We have cap space and assets to fill that hole. One-dimensional scoring winger are not hard to find and doesn't have to cost a lot. Bjorkstrand went for a mid pick and his production on offensively-challenged teams are quite respectable. And he doesn't have an excessively high cap hit for very long term. Sam Reinhart as a prime 25 years old was traded for a prospect and a 1st. Patrick Kane and Giroux signed as a free agents. I'm not saying target these guys specifically, but scoring wingers, young to old, cheap to expensive, are always available. You don't have to commit huge AAV and term to get them. We shouldn't feel like we have to keep Boeser at all cost, he isn't irreplaceable.

 

[WTG]

I think a good manager has to balance the "now" and the "future". In the immediate term, as in next 2 season, it is going to be hard to replace Boeser's offense completely, and nobody expect a rookie JL to come in and do so at like 15% of the cost. HOWEVER, if the alternative is to overpay him to a long term contract that could immediately becomes an anchor? I would rather let him walk. Same rationale for Lindholm, if he wants something like 7 x $7m, he is gone.

Letting Boeser go doesn't mean we just plug a bottom 6 guy in his spot. We have cap space and assets to fill that hole. One-dimensional scoring winger are not hard to find and doesn't have to cost a lot. Bjorkstrand went for a mid pick and his production on offensively-challenged teams are quite respectable. And he doesn't have an excessively high cap hit for very long term. Sam Reinhart as a prime 25 years old was traded for a prospect and a 1st. Patrick Kane and Giroux signed as a free agents. I'm not saying target these guys specifically, but scoring wingers, young to old, cheap to expensive, are always available. You don't have to commit huge AAV and term to get them. We shouldn't feel like we have to keep Boeser at all cost, he isn't irreplaceable.

7x7 is very respectable, and with the rate the cap goes up, it won't look that bad in a few years. You can reshuffle the deck and bring in someone else, but that seems like such a risk for what could end up being a ~2 mill cap savings. Why not move Mikheyev and Garland and get the cap savings there? I don't understand the priority of moving Boeser.

 

[arttk]

If you take out the outliers where he performs well, and don't take out the outliers where he performs poorly (his dad died), then, of course, you are going to make a player look bad. IDK what your point is at all, it seems like you've already come to the conclusion that Boeser is bad and just work the numbers to make him seem bad.

I'm not arguing you on the fact that some of those players drive play more. But to circle on the point of the post, removing Boeser does not mean you can suddenly replace him. He does score at rates higher than those players minus Forsberg. Where are you going to find that replacement? In UFA for Guentzel and pay even more UFA money?

The Canucks have 1 bonafide top 6 right winger, that's Boeser. If you are going to trade him, who is coming in to replace him? Who is on the 2nd line RW?

He has one outlier, this season. If you take that out he has not scored 30 goals ever.

If you take away all the seasons where he had personal tragedy, he still has zero seasons where he scored 30.

I am not saying he is bad, I am saying he is very high risk to extend if he is asking for 7+ with term. What part do you not understand about that.

finding a replacement is Alvin’s job, not mine. I just advocate for not extending Boeser if he wants a big contract and trade him at peak value for assets and free up the cap to find a replacement. I am not sure the concept of a RW matters as much in the system we play. 90% of our offense is dump the puck, forecheck the shit out of it and create chances from control. It’s not like we need wingers to create chances from rush chance where you want a natural RW LW setup.

 

[ChilliBilly]

General comment, and sorry this is the wrong thread for it.

People constantly talk about "moving" players like its taking back a product to Costco.

you are always going to have some number of players not living up to their contract. No one is going to step and say, Hey, I'll take him off your hands, and will throw in a player you want and a decent draft pick. (though Benning came close).

We are having a great season, and most of the players are at least earning their salaries ... stop whining about the 1 or 2 who are not.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Am I the only one who wants Lekkerimaki to become a top line player for the Canucks?

Also, who walks over a freaking bridge with a bone in their mouth??? Morans, that's who.

Yes. Just you.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

He has one outlier, this season. If you take that out he has not scored 30 goals ever.

If you take away all the seasons where he had personal tragedy, he still has zero seasons where he scored 30.

I am not saying he is bad, I am saying he is very high risk to extend if he is asking for 7+ with term. What part do you not understand about that.

finding a replacement is Alvin’s job, not mine. I just advocate for not extending Boeser if he wants a big contract and trade him at peak value for assets and free up the cap to find a replacement. I am not sure the concept of a RW matters as much in the system we play. 90% of our offense is dump the puck, forecheck the shit out of it and create chances from control. It’s not like we need wingers to create chances from rush chance where you want a natural RW LW setup.

You're having to use very precise language to make your argument, which is not a good sign for your argument. The counter-pedabtic argument is that Boeser has paced 30+ goals in 5 of 8 seasons with a career average of 30.75 goals per 82 games. Is a 464 game sample size sufficient to call him a 30 goal scorer? Yes, yes it is.

 

[F A N]

Prob won’t be convinced until it actually happen huh

I want to and I certainly hope he's a home run pick.

 

[arttk]

You're having to use very precise language to make your argument, which is not a good sign for your argument. The counter-pedabtic argument is that Boeser has paced 30+ goals in 5 of 8 seasons with a career average of 30.75 goals per 82 games. Is a 464 game sample size sufficient to call him a 30 goal scorer? Yes, yes it is.

Being precise matters when you are making big money decisions.
Also you know you are being disingenuous when you include Boeser’s rookie season as part of the history. Rookie Boeser is a different player everyone knows that.

Even this season, he has slowed down pretty dramatically around Feb and looks more like previous seasons Boeser than early season Boeser. The thing about extending him is he will get slower, and we all know what he is like when he slows down a bit.

You guys are too damn sentimental about this. Yeah GMs usually don’t treat the NHL like a video game but we are talking about PA and JR here. We had rumors about Limdholm on the block at TDL and they didn’t even bother refuting that and only said, oh I feel bad for the player for those rumors. JR basically refreshed his whole roster at Pens and got them a cup.

Why are you guys so sentimental? Feels more important than winning? Giving Boeser term into the 30’s is like such an obvious trap. It’s like we all know what he’s like when he plays slow. Well we know he is already bloody slow and will definitely get slower real soon, wtf makes you guys think nah, he’s going to figure out how to score with less speed.

 

[arttk]

General comment, and sorry this is the wrong thread for it.

People constantly talk about "moving" players like its taking back a product to Costco.

you are always going to have some number of players not living up to their contract. No one is going to step and say, Hey, I'll take him off your hands, and will throw in a player you want and a decent draft pick. (though Benning came close).

We are having a great season, and most of the players are at least earning their salaries ... stop whining about the 1 or 2 who are not.

Missing the point

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Am I the only one who wants Lekkerimaki to become a top line player for the Canucks?

Also, who walks over a freaking bridge with a bone in their mouth??? Morans, that's who.

Yes. You are the only person who wants our top prospect to become a star player.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Missing the point

You seem to think I was aiming this at your post. I was not. Boeser has been overpaid for years, but he is earning his salary this year. I don't want him back if he is $7M+.

The intangible part of this is that we have no idea of the dynamics of the dressing room. They all seem to be gelling this year. Great. Is Boeser a minor part of that? A major part of that? He sure seems to be a class act.

It is part of the job of the GM and coach to put together a working team. They have done one hell of a job.

Whether or not Lekkerimaki can step in and be a top level sniper is a separate issue. We are all hoping that he, Willy, EP2 and pods turn out to be great players for the Canucks.

 

[HighAndTight]

I really don't think a lot of people seem to understand how well Beoser plays his role.

There are so many times a game he's the one that keeps a play alive in the O zone but won't get an assist as the play continues on with an eventual goal.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

I really don't think a lot of people seem to understand how well Beoser plays his role.

There are so many times a game he's the one that keeps a play alive in the O zone but won't get an assist as the play continues on with an eventual goal.

He's a great player. The question is if it's a good fit on this team given the cap constraints.

 

[sting101]

I really don't think a lot of people seem to understand how well Beoser plays his role.

There are so many times a game he's the one that keeps a play alive in the O zone but won't get an assist as the play continues on with an eventual goal.

yes im pretty much convinced that Sam Reinhart Mark Stone and anyone who doesn't skate around fast would never get respect in this city. It's like the Caps should have never won with
TJ Oshie or Avs with Landeskog or Ducks with Corey Perry because they skate too slow

Boeser is a key piece in linking things together with this core. His possession game and playmaking has become really good and he can finish. Net front he's done a excellent job at screening and having a well placed body and strong stick to clean things up. He's also really good at moving pucks around the walls to keep his line or the PP in possession

Nobody on the Canucks roster is readily available to replace what he does without a big set back. It's working so well that we're in a Presidents trophy race yet people are constantly trying to project him off the roster. He is extremely important in his role loves this city and gutted through a tough era and off ice challenges to emerge happy and successful. I'm not sure why it's so hard to understand or at least be respectful and mindful of his importance. He is a core piece.

I trust this management to make a smart decision with the term of his next contract. Like Horvat he will have to decide team or max money and that is fine as he is the most replaceable of our core players even if it wont be as easy as most seem to think

Lekkerimaki (after this year) i'm pretty convinced has star potential. Thing is the NHL doesn't take kindly to young players and he will go through a development phase especially not being naturally a player who gets stuck in. Would be amazing if he could jump on board and have immediate impact but i certainly do not see the Lekkerimaki replaces Boeser scenario unfolding by the end of BB6's contract.

 

[Nick Lang]

7x7 is very respectable, and with the rate the cap goes up, it won't look that bad in a few years. You can reshuffle the deck and bring in someone else, but that seems like such a risk for what could end up being a ~2 mill cap savings. Why not move Mikheyev and Garland and get the cap savings there? I don't understand the priority of moving Boeser.

Mikheyev needs to be moved already just to ice a half decent team next year. Same with Garland if we want to afford a half ass bottom 6, especially as the OEL penalty increases. Our lineup is already littered with holes and big ufa decisions. I think the biggest thing is a lot of us already see the holes in our top 6 as it pertains to playoff hockey. We probably need to address that as we've all seen the winger carousel surrounding Petey, Miller, and Boeser this season. Petey needs a more permanent winger to play with as well. It's not that he needs to be moved as a priority but his upcoming contract really needs to be carefully considered and weighed against the many other facets this team needs, and how to best obtain that.

Why are you guys so sentimental? Feels more important than winning? Giving Boeser term into the 30’s is like such an obvious trap. It’s like we all know what he’s like when he plays slow. Well we know he is already bloody slow and will definitely get slower real soon, wtf makes you guys think nah, he’s going to figure out how to score with less speed.

This is the sense I get to. It's not that Boeser has to go because he's a bad player or something, it's that he might be looking for a huge contract. It's something to strongly evaluate, if we want to improve the top 6 configuration. That's going to be almost impossible to do if we re-sign Boeser to a big deal. Then it's just more of the same going forward. I personally feel we're still a couple players away from being a serious contender.

Lucky for all of us, fans and management, we get the perfect environment coming up in the playoffs up to see exactly how our players perform before making final decisions. Gotta trust Allvin and JR here.

You seem to think I was aiming this at your post. I was not. Boeser has been overpaid for years, but he is earning his salary this year. I don't want him back if he is $7M+.

The intangible part of this is that we have no idea of the dynamics of the dressing room. They all seem to be gelling this year. Great. Is Boeser a minor part of that? A major part of that? He sure seems to be a class act.

Yeah a big $7-$8 mil deal with term is likely. He could easily be coming off of back to back 35+ goal campaigns if he continues scoring in his contract year. We have very few places where we can make significant changes. Mik, Garland, and Boeser, are basically it.

I think the dressing room thing is a non-starter. You can't carry a $7+ mil contracts simply because he's a popular guy in the room.

He's a great player. The question is if it's a good fit on this team given the cap constraints.

Exactly this. The margins are so tight. It's going to be hard to surround our elite core with the pieces needed to be a winner. Is this how we want to spend the rest of our top 6 money for the next 3/4 of a decade.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

yes im pretty much convinced that Sam Reinhart Mark Stone and anyone who doesn't skate around fast would never get respect in this city. It's like the Caps should have never won with
TJ Oshie or Avs with Landeskog or Ducks with Corey Perry because they skate too slow

Boeser is a key piece in linking things together with this core. His possession game and playmaking has become really good and he can finish. Net front he's done a excellent job at screening and having a well placed body and strong stick to clean things up. He's also really good at moving pucks around the walls to keep his line or the PP in possession

Nobody on the Canucks roster is readily available to replace what he does without a big set back. It's working so well that we're in a Presidents trophy race yet people are constantly trying to project him off the roster. He is extremely important in his role loves this city and gutted through a tough era and off ice challenges to emerge happy and successful. I'm not sure why it's so hard to understand or at least be respectful and mindful of his importance. He is a core piece.

I trust this management to make a smart decision with the term of his next contract. Like Horvat he will have to decide team or max money and that is fine as he is the most replaceable of our core players even if it wont be as easy as most seem to think

Lekkerimaki (after this year) i'm pretty convinced has star potential. Thing is the NHL doesn't take kindly to young players and he will go through a development phase especially not being naturally a player who gets stuck in. Would be amazing if he could jump on board and have immediate impact but i certainly do not see the Lekkerimaki replaces Boeser scenario unfolding by the end of BB6's contract.

I don't think you are saying anything that contradicts what the other side is saying.

Let's be perfectly clear, nobody is saying Boeser is a bad player, or that he doesn't play a key role on offense or the PP, or that he is not an important piece in the locker room, or that we should completely discount his personal tragedy when evaluating his past performance. And certainly nobody is actively projecting to have him off the team.

What we are saying is 1) Boeser is not without flaws, and his flaws limits him as a player and will likely get more prominent as he ages, 2) he is definitely not the first player we should move (Mikheyev and maybe Garland should be top of the lost) but if the right deal comes along we have to at least look into it, 3) committing big money on a long term contract to him is extremely risky due to the above mentioned flaws, and 4) his trade value is likely never going to be higher, so if extending him is not in the long term plans then moving him could make sense.

You seem to also acknowledge the benefit of moving on from previous core player with your Horvat example, Boeser is the exact same situation. If he wants to come back at a number that make sense and work for us, more than happy to have him. If not, he isn't irreplaceable, just like Horvat wasn't irreplaceable.

Hope that clears things up.

 

[hefsbeaver]

Glad I came here to read about Lek, read 2 full pages on BROCK. Can we start a BB thread and use this one for Lek please.

Here's hoping he has a great playoffs and drags his team as far as possible

 

[Tables of Stats]

He has one outlier, this season. If you take that out he has not scored 30 goals ever.

If you take away all the seasons where he had personal tragedy, he still has zero seasons where he scored 30.

I am not saying he is bad, I am saying he is very high risk to extend if he is asking for 7+ with term. What part do you not understand about that.

finding a replacement is Alvin’s job, not mine. I just advocate for not extending Boeser if he wants a big contract and trade him at peak value for assets and free up the cap to find a replacement. I am not sure the concept of a RW matters as much in the system we play. 90% of our offense is dump the puck, forecheck the shit out of it and create chances from control. It’s not like we need wingers to create chances from rush chance where you want a natural RW LW setup.

The shortened 56 game season had him on pace for 34 goals in an 82 game season. Unlike other injury shortened seasons where it's fair to count that as a limitation of Boeser himself the shortened season shouldn't be so discounted. So with that included he's had peak goal scoring seasons of 35+ (This season), 34 (Pro Rated), and 29, with some of his injury shortened seasons showing around 30 goal pace as well. If we discount the seasons impacted by his father's illness and death he's pretty consistently a high 20s to low 30s goal scorer with under rated playmaking ability.

It's fair to lower his value by pointing out his injury history and his poor foot speed, but I'm not sure it's fair to claim he's never shown the ability to score 30 goals.

We also don't know what his asking price will be. If there's a player on this roster likely to take a discount to stay it feels like it would be him.

------

As for Lekkerimaki, I'm hoping he continues to drag his team with him through the SHL playoffs.

 

[hefsbeaver]

^^^^^^ I guess not. Lol

 

[Toss it to Tanti]

The management was willing to give him away for free..?...First time I've heard about that..Do you have a source ?

It was widely reported that he was going to be a cap casualty, and that the only way that they were going to be able to trade him was if salary retention was made available; which this group didn't want to do.

They gave his agent permission to talk to other teams to seek a trade as they couldn't find a dance partner, and couldn't find a package that they were happy with. If someone offered a first or any prospect of relevance they would have made the deal.

This is not new information PoM.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

It was widely reported that he was going to be a cap casualty, and that the only way that they were going to be able to trade him was if salary retention was made available; which this group didn't want to do.

They gave his agent permission to talk to other teams to seek a trade as they couldn't find a dance partner, and couldn't find a package that they were happy with. If someone offered a first or any prospect of relevance they would have made the deal.

This is not new information PoM.

You'd find a suitor now I'd imagine, with those numbers compared to last year.

 

[arttk]

The shortened 56 game season had him on pace for 34 goals in an 82 game season. Unlike other injury shortened seasons where it's fair to count that as a limitation of Boeser himself the shortened season shouldn't be so discounted. So with that included he's had peak goal scoring seasons of 35+ (This season), 34 (Pro Rated), and 29, with some of his injury shortened seasons showing around 30 goal pace as well. If we discount the seasons impacted by his father's illness and death he's pretty consistently a high 20s to low 30s goal scorer with under rated playmaking ability.

It's fair to lower his value by pointing out his injury history and his poor foot speed, but I'm not sure it's fair to claim he's never shown the ability to score 30 goals.

We also don't know what his asking price will be. If there's a player on this roster likely to take a discount to stay it feels like it would be him.

------

As for Lekkerimaki, I'm hoping he continues to drag his team with him through the SHL playoffs.

The point is with this year as a platform year, he can ask for a lot, like 7+ or more likely 7.5+ and if he scores 40 then yeah, that is a reasonable ask. Problem is the risk of doing that. If we extend him based on the platform year, how likely will he live up to his contract as he gets slower and i think there is high confidence that he will get slower and also high confidence that speed will negatively impact his production more than other players because he is already pretty damn slow.
If we don't extend him, his NTC will kick in and there are basically several scenarios. He plays well, as well as this year and that will solidify his case to make more money and that will make the extension decision either easier or more challenging. He plays not as well but maybe like between 25-low 30 goal range and that decreases his ask but also the risk of extension is even bigger because now you have evidence of decline or regression. He plays like crap and you end up with a distress asset that is not helping you much when you are trying to contend.

everything about Boeser should be look through the lens of risk management. It's not about do you like him or not, it's about short term and long term risk.

 

[sting101]

Glad I came here to read about Lek, read 2 full pages on BROCK. Can we start a BB thread and use this one for Lek please.

Here's hoping he has a great playoffs and drags his team as far as possible

It's because people were projecting to replace a Boeser extension with Lekkerimaki and the viability of that so it has relevance. Of course anything related to BB6 gets into an argument as he's a polarizing player for many.

I don't think you are saying anything that contradicts what the other side is saying.

Let's be perfectly clear, nobody is saying Boeser is a bad player, or that he doesn't play a key role on offense or the PP, or that he is not an important piece in the locker room, or that we should completely discount his personal tragedy when evaluating his past performance. And certainly nobody is actively projecting to have him off the team.

What we are saying is 1) Boeser is not without flaws, and his flaws limits him as a player and will likely get more prominent as he ages, 2) he is definitely not the first player we should move (Mikheyev and maybe Garland should be top of the lost) but if the right deal comes along we have to at least look into it, 3) committing big money on a long term contract to him is extremely risky due to the above mentioned flaws, and 4) his trade value is likely never going to be higher, so if extending him is not in the long term plans then moving him could make sense.

You seem to also acknowledge the benefit of moving on from previous core player with your Horvat example, Boeser is the exact same situation. If he wants to come back at a number that make sense and work for us, more than happy to have him. If not, he isn't irreplaceable, just like Horvat wasn't irreplaceable.

Hope that clears things up.

The Bjorkstand comp is not that great if you want to compete with heavy teams in the Pacific come playoff time and a lot of those deals that were made during the flat cap wont be a thing anymore plus what you are saying is not what others are who keep using his name as the guy they are looking to toss out with the bath water

It's important to not become slow and stale. A 28yr old Boeser if he stays healthy and shows consistency the rest of this season and next is not something we should have on a list of high priority players to get out from within.

It can all change with a change in play or contract but that's all players so it's worth monitoring. I agree with most of what your saying it just seems endless the amount of attacks on a damn good hockey player but in the context of this discussion your point is well taken.