Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Arrived in Abbotsford

[Bleach Clean]

I think you either need to look up the definition of likely and probably, or just a refresher on probability. Very likely and absolutely are two drastically different things. If I get a stage 4 cancer diagnosis I am very likely to die but by no means am I absolutely or already dead. You can't lump in very likely with an absolute, it's impossible to talk about projections or hypotheticals otherwise

'Very likely' and 'absolutely' were never lumped together. MS wouldn't be dumb enough to say if Lekk is sub PPG he will absolutely bust as a prospect (a lock). Instead, he says very likely (or akin to) because it's a projection at best. (By everyone, either way)

That statement still has the same effect as all but condemning Lekk though, and that is the reason it was challenged.

 

[VanJack]

Regardless of how it all turns out with Lekerimaki, as a Canucks fan you can't help but be excited for the upcoming training camp.

Coming off their best regular season and playoff run in more than a decade, they've added six new players and actually improved their team over what it was a year ago.

And there's a lot of young guys knocking down the door for NHL employment. Chances are guys like Bains, Karlsson, Raty, Sasson, McWard and even the aforementioned Lekkerimaki, will end up back in Abbotsford.

But they'll definitely be pushing hard on some of the Canucks bottom six players--and that's the kind of internal competition you want.

 

[arttk]

How dare you state with absolute certainty exactly when the skate will start

Turns out it starts a month ahead

 

[Hodgy]

What an inane post by you.

How is it a stupid or silly post? I am just appropriately interpreting the words MS is using.

Arguing for the 20% exit clause doesn't change MS' position in a meaningful way.

When did I argue this? I’m not even sure what point you are making. MS originally said he “probably” (I.e., 51% or more likelihood) would bust if he didn’t get a PPG. He then elaborated later that he thought the chances of a bust were 80%. You then threw up a strawman by arguing that he wouldn’t be a bust if he didn’t hit a PPG.

Very likely to bust and absolutely bust are still all but condemning Lekk if he puts up a sub PPG total.

Can you honestly not appreciate the difference an 80% chance of busting and a 100% certainty of busting? I don’t know if you are intentionally being obtuse or just can’t grasp the distinction. An 80% chance (I.e. a 1 in 5 success rate) isn’t all but condemning Lekkerimaki especially when you consider that Lekkermaki probably had like a 50% bust outcome when he was drafted.

He adds the percentages after the initial post too. Are you taking this into account?

Ya. 80% bust rate, which isn’t terribly unreasonable, and isn’t at all the same as saying a 100% certainty that he will bust.

If by probably he meant 99%, does that change the way his statement is to be taken in a significant way? It's still technically, probably....

Probably just means 51% or more likelihood. No one is stupid enough to think that probably = 99% or anywhere close to that. It just means a probable event, which is more likely than not to occur. But debating what probably means is irrelevant since MS clarified his initial statement which a more specific percentage in 80%.

 

[Hodgy]

'Very likely' and 'absolutely' were never lumped together. MS wouldn't be dumb enough to say if Lekk is sub PPG he will absolutely bust as a prospect (a lock). Instead, he says very likely (or akin to) because it's a projection at best. (By everyone, either way)

That statement still has the same effect as all but condemning Lekk though, and that is the reason it was challenged.

So a 1/5 chance of making it as a top six winger in the NHL after a statistically underwhelming season in the AHL is all but condemning him as a bust.

Not sure that you have a firm grasp on basic prospect probabilities.

 

[biturbo19]

And what we consistently see from fans here is that a prospect is sitting at the 5th pool after 8 weeks and people are saying 'that's OK!' and making excuses and not understanding the reality of the situation.

And yes, a fish that is seemingly about to make it can still get eaten by a bear/have a serious injury. Cody Hodgson got eaten by a bear. Bad luck.

I enjoyed this post.

But this part gave me a strong sense of, "Caulk the Wagons!" and "your prospect has died of dysentery".

 

[F A N]

So a 1/5 chance of making it as a top six winger in the NHL after a statistically underwhelming season in the AHL is all but condemning him as a bust.

Not sure that you have a firm grasp on basic prospect probabilities.

I think that given MS' past posts where he draws conclusions based performance vs age/draft+years, he is "all but condemning him as a bust" if he has a statistically underwhelming season in the AHL. Of course MS isn't saying that an underwhelming AHL season by Lekkerimaki means he's going to bust with 100% absolute certainty, but we really don't need to find other meaning when there is none. MS made it clear himself in reminding us:

It's actually incredible I'm still needing to have these arguments. I've been having them back to when Nathan Smith and Jordan Schroeder flopped when they hit the AHL and I've been right pretty nearly every time ... and people still don't get how it works.

 

[F A N]

A 3rd round pick also has an 80% bust rate and I'd have taken that in a heartbeat over the gigantic turd that was Markus Granlund.

What's the bust rate of a late 1st round pick? I seem to recall you believing that Shinkaruk was worth more than a 3rd at the time of the trade.

The point is that Shinakruk had an underwhelming first AHL season which under your logic you surely would have declared Shinkaruk a bust yet you believed Shinkaruk had substantial trade value when Shinkaruk was reportedly shopped all season long (an action which you surely would have supported).

Of cousre you're going to say that GMs are stupid whenever the market/GM contradict your assessment right? Like some team should have swooped in and offered a high 2nd round pick for him.

 

[Vector]

We’re getting to the point we’re Lekkerimaki isn’t part of the discussion anymore. Move it to a different thread.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

'Very likely' and 'absolutely' were never lumped together. MS wouldn't be dumb enough to say if Lekk is sub PPG he will absolutely bust as a prospect (a lock). Instead, he says very likely (or akin to) because it's a projection at best. (By everyone, either way)

That statement still has the same effect as all but condemning Lekk though, and that is the reason it was challenged.

Its a very reasonable statetment to make.

We’re getting to the point we’re Lekkerimaki isn’t part of the discussion anymore. Move it to a different thread.

Aawww shoot. I just got here.

 

[Vector]

Its a very reasonable statetment to make.


Aawww shoot. I just got here.

The overall discussion is...fine. It's just veering wildly away from Lekkerimaki.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

The overall discussion is...fine. It's just veering wildly away from Lekkerimaki.

I would probably make it less fine.

 

[RobertKron]

So I didn’t watch dude much at all last year, and like not at all in Abbotsford, and I’d like to get a better sense of the player: is the expectation that he’s a PP specialist “perimeter scorer” (for lack of a better term)?

I watched some long highlight package to try to brush up a bit, and I think I could count on both hands the number of times dude was within 15’ of the net. I think the only time in the entire video that he was below the goal line might have been him doing a Michigan. Obviously there’s huge contextual difference in play style going on, but when he was in Abbotsford, was he going to the areas where ES NHL plays happen?

 

[Hodgy]

I think that given MS' past posts where he draws conclusions based performance vs age/draft+years, he is "all but condemning him as a bust" if he has a statistically underwhelming season in the AHL. Of course MS isn't saying that an underwhelming AHL season by Lekkerimaki means he's going to bust with 100% absolute certainty, but we really don't need to find other meaning when there is none. MS made it clear himself in reminding us:

Personally, I think @MS has generally been very reasonable when assessing prospect chances on here and I think the pushback we typically see on here comes from posters who a) have a real emotional attachment to the prospects; b) don't understand historical bust rates of prospects based on their draft position and year to year performances; and/or c) strawman MS' position by asserting that he thinks the prospect in questions will absolutely bust.

And in these particular circumstances its outright lunacy to assert that he has "all but condemned him as a bust" if he doesn't score a PPG, notwithstanding that MS has been extremely clear and prescriptive in outlining his view as to Lekkerimaki's bust rate if he doesn't score at around a PPG.

So I didn’t watch dude much at all last year, and like not at all in Abbotsford, and I’d like to get a better sense of the player: is the expectation that he’s a PP specialist “perimeter scorer” (for lack of a better term)?

I watched some long highlight package to try to brush up a bit, and I think I could count on both hands the number of times dude was within 15’ of the net. I think the only time in the entire video that he was below the goal line might have been him doing a Michigan. Obviously there’s huge contextual difference in play style going on, but when he was in Abbotsford, was he going to the areas where ES NHL plays happen?

Are you saying he's a bust!?!

 

[Vector]

So I didn’t watch dude much at all last year, and like not at all in Abbotsford, and I’d like to get a better sense of the player: is the expectation that he’s a PP specialist “perimeter scorer” (for lack of a better term)?

I watched some long highlight package to try to brush up a bit, and I think I could count on both hands the number of times dude was within 15’ of the net. I think the only time in the entire video that he was below the goal line might have been him doing a Michigan. Obviously there’s huge contextual difference in play style going on, but when he was in Abbotsford, was he going to the areas where ES NHL plays happen?

I also didn't watch him in Abbotsford and really only saw a couple of abbreviated Swedish games and his world juniors. From what I saw, and the numerous reports on his progress, the biggest thing he's done since getting healthy has been attack in the middle of the ice at even strength. The second most noticeable improvement has been his board work/aggressiveness.

So his NHL projection really depends on whether he keeps getting to the middle of the ice and continues that willingness to engage along the boards. He's never going to be a good forechecker but not shying away from it and learning how to take contact will be paramount. On the powerplay, he's a pure shooter. So good that teams craft their entire PK around taking away his ability to shoot. That's one adjustment he really hasn't had to make yet. Will be very interesting to see if he can find ways to get his shot away on the powerplay when AHL PKs are zoning in on him.

 

[F A N]

Personally, I think @MS has generally been very reasonable when assessing prospect chances on here and I think the pushback we typically see on here comes from posters who a) have a real emotional attachment to the prospects; b) don't understand historical bust rates of prospects based on their draft position and year to year performances; and/or c) strawman MS' position by asserting that he thinks the prospect in questions will absolutely bust.

And in these particular circumstances its outright lunacy to assert that he has "all but condemned him as a bust" if he doesn't score a PPG, notwithstanding that MS has been extremely clear and prescriptive in outlining his view as to Lekkerimaki's bust rate if he doesn't score at around a PPG.

I don't really take issue with MS's assessment of a prospect's chances unless it's something like Hughes will be a 3rd pairing PP specialist that needs to be sheltered. Like I said many times, I can say every late round pick as likely to bust and be right most of the time. It's good for discussions but not really something to get upset about.

I do disagree with your interpretation. I think "all but condemned him as a bust" means exactly that. It certainly doesn't mean absolute. I would think that most people wouldn't react like Jim Carey's character in Dumb and Dumber when told he has a one in one million of a chance. We can all interpret how we want and at the end of the day MS is just a poster on HF boards. He's a nobody who has zero influence on an NHL GM's assessment of a Lekkerimaki just like you and I.

 

[VanJack]

Hearing that Patrik Allvin interview, it seems apparent that both Lekkerimaki and Wilander won't spend much time in Abbotsford. Both kids fill a glaring need on this roster.

So the arrival for both might not be any later than March, 2025.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Hearing that Patrik Allvin interview, it seems apparent that both Lekkerimaki and Wilander won't spend much time in Abbotsford. Both kids fill a glaring need on this roster.

So the arrival for both might not be any later than March, 2025.

Trying to understand what you mean by this.

They won't spend much time in Abbotsford but they will spend Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb in the AHL and then win a spot on the main roster?

What glaring need does Lekkermaki fill that he might be capable of? We have Brock and the new guy to fill the net. After that they have Joshua, Garland, Heinen, Doggy and maybe Sherwood to fill top 8 spots

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The overall discussion is...fine. It's just veering wildly away from Lekkerimaki.

Well it's 80% veered away from Lekki, but that leaves a 20% that it's really all about him. I'm just not sure whether that's good or not.
This thread is only 13 (pages)though, so i'm not ready to call it a bust yet....

 

[sting101]

Well it's at less than a page per day and even Vanjack getting paid to drum up interest can't stop this thread from probably busting

 

[ziploc]

I would probably make it less fine.

 

[VanJack]

Trying to understand what you mean by this.

They won't spend much time in Abbotsford but they will spend Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb in the AHL and then win a spot on the main roster?

What glaring need does Lekkermaki fill that he might be capable of? We have Brock and the new guy to fill the net. After that they have Joshua, Garland, Heinen, Doggy and maybe Sherwood to fill top 8 spots

The 'glaring need' is a top-six scoring winger, particularly on the PP; and a mobile, puck moving d-man. Up front, Boeser is heading into free agency; and Hoglander is a bit of a mystery. And as nice as the additions, of Heinen, DeBrusk, Sherwood and Sprong are, it's a fact that none of these guys even hit the 20-goal mark a year ago.

Meantime on the blueline, once you get past Hughes and Hronek, the mobility and offense basically falls of a cliff. And the hole is even deeper on the r ight side of the blueline.

I suppose there's a chance you can address these needs at the TDL or via free agency, but it's going to cost you dearly. Having rookies on ELC's fill those those roles is an immense advantage under the salary cap.

 

[logan5]

Excited to have this player hopefully make the team out of training camp (I predict he will). He will be a game changer for our power play because he can one time the puck from the left side much better (imo) than Boeser or Miller, who play in that spot on the PP. Once Lekk starts sniping from the left side, the PK will have to start defending more of that area, which will mean more room for Pettersson to unleash his deadly one timer.

 

[John Garretts KD]

Excited to have this player hopefully make the team out of training camp (I predict he will). He will be a game changer for our power play because he can one time the puck from the left side much better (imo) than Boeser or Miller, who play in that spot on the PP. Once Lekk starts sniping from the left side, the PK will have to start defending more of that area, which will mean more room for Pettersson to unleash his deadly one timer.

Who would he replace on our top unit? I imagine they role Miller, Boeser, Pettersson, DeBrusk, and Hughes. Maybe substitute Hronek in over DeBrusk if they struggle.

 

[RobertKron]

LMAO at taking the position that Lekkerimaki is a better shooter than Bedard, is coming off a better season than Pettersson's 2017-18 SHL campaign, but also maybe won't make the NHL until March 2025.