Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Arrived in Abbotsford

[MS]

Was going to argue that Nichushkin is one of those guys who "figured it out" late , but as much as he did on the ice...off the ice, not so much. lol

Yeah, he's a weird one. But he was still basically an NHL player right from 18 aside from when he voluntarily left the NHL for two years.

It wasn't a case where he was drafted high, spent 3 years treading water in the AHL, and then blew up which is more what I was talking about.

 

[MS]

IIRC, you thought Shinkaruk had substantial trade value at the time we traded him but Shinkaruk had 16 goals 31 points in 74 games as a 20 year old which if those were Lekkerimaki's numbers you would surely declare that he was tracking 80%+ to be a bust?

A 3rd round pick also has an 80% bust rate and I'd have taken that in a heartbeat over the gigantic turd that was Markus Granlund.

 

[Vector]

Yeah, he's a weird one. But he was still basically an NHL player right from 18 aside from when he voluntarily left the NHL for two years.

It wasn't a case where he was drafted high, spent 3 years treading water in the AHL, and then blew up which is more what I was talking about.

That's even the same as Daniel Cleary. He was a consistent NHler at 21 years old, just hadn't figure out his role.

 

[MS]

We've both made our points.

I just want to respond that it's interesting that both of us saw Giroux in Petan. We agree a lot more often than we disagree (though I don't always post my opinions if I feel they have been sufficiently covered), so perhaps that indicates that there was something there at the time that just didn't work out. Or at the very least, he had a non-translatable Giroux quality to his game.

I will say that I wanted Shinkaruk with that pick and my assessment of Petan didn't come until his Memorial Cup year and then the WJC (can't remember if mem cup was pre or post draft. I think it was post?)

Petan was a monstrous junior talent who also had lots of compete and bite in his game for a little guy at that point. I liked him a lot more than Shinkaruk but he was a bit smaller and a bit slower than Giroux and it just didn't end up translating.

Your timeline might be messed up since the Memorial Cup year was 2013 which was his draft year.

That's even the same as Daniel Cleary. He was a consistent NHler at 21 years old, just hadn't figure out his role.

Yeah, true.

At the time, Riley Nash was really the only recent player I could find who was a 1st round pick who then lingered in the minors and didn't become an NHL regular until age 24-25. There might be more since, I don't know.

Edit : in more recent drafts Michael McCarron and Noah Juulsen are 1st rounders who look to have stuck in the NHL late, although both are obviously very marginal depth players.

As far as I can tell, it's been literally decades since a 1st round pick hit the end of their ELC as an AHLer and then went on to become a top-6/top-4 type player.

 

[credulous]

most of the "late bloomers" discussed here didn't get opportunity either because of bias, an obvious flaw (usually skating or effort) or because they just weren't the right kind of player for the league at the time

if lekkerimaki busts it won't be because he doesn't get opportunity. he'll get every chance to prove he belongs

 

[ChilliBilly]

Made the mistake of reading a lot of this thread.

It put me in mind of a great quote: "he put the most words into the smallest idea of any man I ever met."

My take on JL? I think he's going to be a good player for the Canucks, but lets wait and see how the next few years go.

 

[arttk]

So got curious and took a look at the top scorer from last season and see how they performed in the AHL.

So large majority of stars simply skip the AHL and go straight to the NHL roster. For those who went to AHL, seems like the only one that didn't do PPG in the AHL is Robertson, Kempe, Trochek, JT (D+2), Fiala, Verhaegae, Brock Nelson. Skipped the ones that spent only like a handful of games in the AHL. Keep in mind, very few players that is like top50 in scoring last season went to AHL in general

Anyway, just reporting what I see, not adding any type of commentary beyond that.

 

[Vector]

Edit : in more recent drafts Michael McCarron and Noah Juulsen are 1st rounders who look to have stuck in the NHL late, although both are obviously very marginal depth players.

As far as I can tell, it's been literally decades since a 1st round pick hit the end of their ELC as an AHLer and then went on to become a top-6/top-4 type player.

Jankowski is on track in the same vein as McCarron and Juulsen.

Podkolzin is also part of this conversation and is more proof of this.

 

[MS]

Jankowski is on track in the same vein as McCarron and Juulsen.

Podkolzin is also part of this conversation and is more proof of this.

Jankowski arrived in the AHL late but he only played 78 games and scored 70 points so he's still a guy who blew through the AHL quickly at close to a PPG even though he basically projected as a depth C by that point.

 

[RobsonStreet]

If Lekk scores 30 next year with only 15 assists, that puts him at ~0.7 ppg. That kind of output and I would say he's still on track as a top6 Cy Young type player.

Some more points of comparison:

Aatu Raty and his similarly uneven year-over year development just had his draft+3 year: 52 in 72 (.7 per 82). Were we having this same conversation about him last summer? How do we feel now?

Jason Robertson, mentioned above, similarly in tough to crack a good NHL roster in his draft+3, goes to the AHL and had 47 in 60. (.8)

The whole “what do we have in player X?” category, that bounces around teams and succeeds elsewhere-

Eeli Tolvanen 36 in 63 (.6)
Jared McCann 25 in 42 (.6)
Alex Tuch 37 in 57 (.6)
Carter Verhaege 15 in 30 (.5)

Finally, our new pal Daniel Sprong, who has a similar offensive profile and had 65 points in 65 AHL games in his draft+3.

 

[MS]

In the case of Jason Robertson, he was 'only' at about 0.8 points/game but was on an absolutely stinky offensive team that he led in scoring by a healthy margin.

Texas Stars 2019-20 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2019-20 Texas Stars playing in the AHL.

www.hockeydb.com

He was also on a heater after a slow start when that season got ended by COVID and probably would have crept up close to a PPG if it continued.

Obviously if Lekkerimaki had that same season if Abbotsford sucks next year, that's totally a solid result.

 

[Hodgy]

The parameters by which Lekk will be deemed toast are being argued. Nobody has stated that MS has already made that determination.

You absolutely have thrown up a strawman by painting @MS as arguing that Lekkerimaki would be a bust if he didn't put up a PPG next year. This is what you stated:

Someone like Fabian Lysell is only now getting his first full time shot at the NHL in his 22 year old season while scoring at a .68 pace in his first full AHL season. He's not toast. Nor will Lekkerimaki be if he does the same/similar.

You brought up Lysell to show that a player would not be a bust or be toast just because they failed to put up a PPG in their first NHL season. But that's a strawman because @MS never said a player would be a bust or toast in that event. He very clearly stated that the probability of a player being a bust would be like 80%, not that a player would definitely be a bust or toast. That's a clear strawman.

MS: If he comes out and scores 41 points in 65 games or something at this level at this age ... he's probably toast.

Me: He's not toast. Nor will Lekkerimaki be if he does the same/similar.

Ya, that's a classic strawman because your retort to @MS implies that his initial position was that if he came out and scored 41 points in 65 games he would be toast when @MS never took that position.

 

[VanJack]

The only possibility that Lekkerimaki gets some NHL games this year is strictly his shot. He's a 'volume shooter' something the Canucks desperately need on their forward lines.

It's one of the big reasons they signed DeBrusk and took a flyer on Sprong. They generate shots.

One of the major deficiencies on this Canuck roster is the lack of shots on goal. In the playoffs last season the Canucks had one of the lowest totals of shots generated than any team entering the post-season. And that trend continued in the actual playoff games.

To quote the Great One: "You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take". More shots also translates into more deflection goals and rebound chances.

So if Lekkerimaki continues to fire the puck from everywhere and anywhere, not only will he light it up in the AHL; but could be an early injury callup to the NHL.

 

[Hodgy]

You're aware that someone arguing dogmatically isn't going to get the benefit of nuance, right?

You think its somehow nuance to not ignore the word "probably" in a retort to a poster?

That's not nuance. That's just bad reading comprehension and/or a strawman.

 

[Kickassguy]

...my head hurts.

 

[RobertKron]

This thread is probably hilarious.

 

[MS]

You think its somehow nuance to not ignore the word "probably" in a retort to a poster?

That's not nuance. That's just bad reading comprehension and/or a strawman.

This has been such a weird discussion because I keep getting accused of a) criticizing Lekkerimaki and b) not having a nuanced argument and neither of those are true.

____________

For the record, in a general sense I think of prospects as 'pools' of players with similar percentage chances of making the NHL. Think of it like salmon returning to spawn who have 10 weeks to cross 10 rapids (incrementally harder developmental steps) to reach their home stream. There will be some Bedardfish who are huge and strong that reach the stream in like 2 days, and there will be tons of fish that barely make it into the river. A fish might have a 50% chance of making it all the way based on its attributes when it starts ... but if after 8 weeks it's only cleared 2 rapids, it's now probably in a 'pool' of fish that only have a 10% chance of reaching their goal. Conversely, if a seemingly weaker fish that was at 20% at the start has now crossed 8 rapids after 5 weeks, it's probably now in a pool of fish with a 60% chance of making it.

Right now we're about 6 weeks in and Lekkerimaki is at the 6th rapid. He's doing pretty well, especially considering he was only at the 3rd rapid after 5 weeks. He's probably in a pool of guys who are 50-60% to make it. But if he drops 40 points in 65 games this year, unless there's a huge mitigating circumstance, he's now still at the 6th rapid after 8 weeks in a pool of fish that are only 20% or 30% to make it. Maybe he still will! But the odds have dropped, and a whole bunch of fish will have passed him up the river while a crucial amount of time will have elapsed.

And yes, sometimes there's a Kuzmenko who was at the first rapid after 9 weeks in a 2% pool of fish who hits turbo and somehow makes it. But that's an outlier.

Sorry if this is weird. But I think it's a relatively instructive framework to look at things and set expectations. Players that move up levels quickly reach their goal. Players that linger in lower pools generally do not. The quicker you move, the more your odds increase. The slower you move, the more you end up dropping down into a group that is statistically unlikely to make it.

And what we consistently see from fans here is that a prospect is sitting at the 5th pool after 8 weeks and people are saying 'that's OK!' and making excuses and not understanding the reality of the situation.

And yes, a fish that is seemingly about to make it can still get eaten by a bear/have a serious injury. Cody Hodgson got eaten by a bear. Bad luck.

This thread is probably hilarious.

I hope you enjoy the above contribution, then ^^^.

 

[Vector]

I greatly appreciate Bedardfish. Also very relevant: Lekkerimaki

 

[StreetHawk]

if he earns a spot on the team out of camp that would be a huge bonus

but i don’t think it’s impossible

Camp is like 4 days or something now and it’s 6 pre season games so he’d play in 3-4 of those. Not much time to make an impression not with line juggling for each game to ice a roster.

If he started like Boldy in the A and warrants a call up around Cmas that would be good. Probably more likely than making the team out of camp and pre season with the sheer number of bodies and contracts they have.

 

[arttk]

Camp is like 4 days or something now and it’s 6 pre season games so he’d play in 3-4 of those. Not much time to make an impression not with line juggling for each game to ice a roster.

If he started like Boldy in the A and warrants a call up around Cmas that would be good. Probably more likely than making the team out of camp and pre season with the sheer number of bodies and contracts they have.

I wonder if he will join the captains skate which should start like 2 weeks before camp.

 

[Bleach Clean]

You absolutely have thrown up a strawman by painting @MS as arguing that Lekkerimaki would be a bust if he didn't put up a PPG next year. This is what you stated:

You brought up Lysell to show that a player would not be a bust or be toast just because they failed to put up a PPG in their first NHL season. But that's a strawman because @MS never said a player would be a bust or toast in that event. He very clearly stated that the probability of a player being a bust would be like 80%, not that a player would definitely be a bust or toast. That's a clear strawman.

Ya, that's a classic strawman because your retort to @MS implies that his initial position was that if he came out and scored 41 points in 65 games he would be toast when @MS never took that position.

What an inane post by you.

Arguing for the 20% exit clause doesn't change MS' position in a meaningful way. Very likely to bust and absolutely bust are still all but condemning Lekk if he puts up a sub PPG total.

He adds the percentages after the initial post too. Are you taking this into account? If by probably he meant 99%, does that change the way his statement is to be taken in a significant way? It's still technically, probably....

 

[MS]

What an inane post by you.

Arguing for the 20% exit clause doesn't change MS' position in a meaningful way. Very likely to bust and absolutely bust are still all but condemning Lekk if he puts up a sub PPG total.

He adds the percentages after the initial post too. Are you taking this into account? If by probably he meant 99%, does that change the way his statement is to be taken in a significant way? It's still technically, probably....

What on earth?

Those things are entirely different. Like, not even close to the same.

I mentioned percentages in my 2nd post on the subject, well before you responded to anything in the thread.

You realize that Lekkerimaki had like a 50% bust probably at the second he was drafted, right?

Getting offended by a 20% number shows a very limited understanding of prospect development and expectations.

 

[iRageWin]

What an inane post by you.

Arguing for the 20% exit clause doesn't change MS' position in a meaningful way. Very likely to bust and absolutely bust are still all but condemning Lekk if he puts up a sub PPG total.

He adds the percentages after the initial post too. Are you taking this into account? If by probably he meant 99%, does that change the way his statement is to be taken in a significant way? It's still technically, probably....

I think you either need to look up the definition of likely and probably, or just a refresher on probability. Very likely and absolutely are two drastically different things. If I get a stage 4 cancer diagnosis I am very likely to die but by no means am I absolutely or already dead. You can't lump in very likely with an absolute, it's impossible to talk about projections or hypotheticals otherwise

 

[Bleach Clean]

What on earth?

Those things are entirely different. Like, not even close to the same.

I mentioned percentages in my 2nd post on the subject, well before you responded to anything in the thread.

You realize that Lekkerimaki had like a 50% bust probably at the second he was drafted, right?

Getting offended by a 20% number shows a very limited understanding of prospect development and expectations.

Or you're just making statements that are ultimately meaningless.

The impetus to this discussion is that you are conveying a significant, relative to all prospects, downturn in conversion rate should Lekk score less than a PPG next year. That's how your initial statement was taken and it was interpreted correctly in that vein per Shareefruck's later clarification. The later 20% marker only served to muddy the matter as my question to you and Shareefruck's comment should indicate.

The offense/contention is the 80% (absolute number) bust chance sans PPG performance that Hodgy outlines. That's not 20% of the 50% (a drop to 40% relative to starting chance) you're indicating now.

 

[RobertKron]

I wonder if he will join the captains skate which should start like 2 weeks before camp.

How dare you state with absolute certainty exactly when the skate will start