Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Arrived in Abbotsford

[RobertKron]

This is another angle the same dumb argument that gets whipped up every time the team signs some Anton Cederholm, Mackenze Stewart type, and I cannot understand why people are able to get so bent out of shape over the idea of applying the overwhelmingly common trend to their team’s prospects.

 

[MS]

This is another angle the same dumb argument that gets whipped up every time the team signs some Anton Cederholm, Mackenze Stewart type, and I cannot understand why people are able to get so bent out of shape over the idea of applying the overwhelmingly common trend to their team’s prospects.

It's been the same forever. People set their expectations too low for the bar needed to make the NHL and then are surprised/confused when a player who is meeting these expectations doesn't make the NHL.

Like, my 'crazy' or 'unfair' expectations for Lekkermaki this year would put him 13th or 14th out of 18 2019 1st round forwards in terms of where he would be at in his development.

Lekkerimaki is a 1st round pick who has had 3 years of playing against men and a taste of the AHL to close out last season. If he wants to maintain his status as a guy tracking at better than 50% to be an NHL forward, he needs to walk into the AHL this year and blow the doors off it and be a dynamic first line player.

If he comes in and puts up 0.6 or 0.7 points/game, his stock has fallen. His odds of making the NHL have fallen considerably. It's a disappointing result. I don't know how this is even arguable.

 

[credulous]

It's been the same forever. People set their expectations too low for the bar needed to make the NHL and then are surprised/confused when a player who is meeting these expectations doesn't make the NHL.

Like, my 'crazy' or 'unfair' expectations for Lekkermaki this year would put him 13th or 14th out of 18 2019 1st round forwards in terms of where he would be at in his development.

Lekkerimaki is a 1st round pick who has had 3 years of playing against men and a taste of the AHL to close out last season. If he wants to maintain his status as a guy tracking at better than 50% to be an NHL forward, he needs to walk into the AHL this year and blow the doors off it and be a dynamic first line player.

If he comes in and puts up 0.6 or 0.7 points/game, his stock has fallen. His odds of making the NHL have fallen considerably. It's a disappointing result. I don't know how this is even arguable.

people way overestimate prospects. here's the top 100 from pronman from 2018. half the guys on the list aren't in the nhl currently or are very marginal players: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/50...00-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2018-19-season/

there's only ~750ish nhl jobs available and even if there's 10% turnover most of it is at the bottom of the roster where a player may only last a few years in the league. of the 20 top prospects in any nhl teams system on average 2-3 of them will have any kind of meaningful nhl career and another 2-3 might eke out a few years as a depth player

 

[MS]

people way overestimate prospects. here's the top 100 from pronman from 2018. half the guys on the list aren't in the nhl currently or are very marginal players: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/50...00-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2018-19-season/

there's only ~750ish nhl jobs available and even if there's 10% turnover most of it is at the bottom of the roster where a player may only last a few years in the league. of the 20 top prospects in any nhl teams system on average 2-3 of them will have any kind of meaningful nhl career and another 2-3 might eke out a few years as a depth player

Totally.

I've posted the numbers here before but for picks in the 20-30 range of the 1st round *maybe* 30% ever develop into an asset with actual value.

It's very hard to make the NHL, only a small percentage of prospects do make the NHL (especially once you get beyond top-10 picks), and those guys who do make the NHL (especially when it comes to top-6/top-4 types with actual value) consistently dominate and move up levels quickly.

I've been having these arguments here for 20+ years from Nathan Smith through Jordan Schroeder through Niklas Jensen through Kole Lind. If guys linger in the AHL without dominating, they're generally f***ed especially if they're top-6/bust sort of players.

 

[Vector]

people way overestimate prospects. here's the top 100 from pronman from 2018. half the guys on the list aren't in the nhl currently or are very marginal players: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/50...00-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2018-19-season/

Thanks for posting this. It's fascinating to read through it. Of the 100 prospects named here 33 are in-arguably busts. Another 16 are fringe AHL/NHL tweeners. Then two more are out of the league due to sexual assault. So, yeah, it's exactly what you said. 51 players from this list aren't currently in the NHL or are very marginal players.

Spoiler: Busts

5) Borgstrom
6) Zadina
17) Kravtsov
21) Bokk
22) Elvenes
28) Merkley
31) Gusev
33) Myers
38) Ylonen
39) Smith
46) Bellows
47) Brown
48) Vesalainen
53) Iskhakov
57) Wilde
59) Andersson
61) Merkley
63) Kuokkanen
67) Chlapik
69) Sikura
71) Volkov
72) Bellerive
74) Heponiemi
79) Gaudette
84) Lind
85) Kamenev
87) Johnsson
90) Chmelevski
93) Juolevi
97) Guhle
98) Niku
99) Abramov
100) Davidsson

Spoiler: Marginal

13) Wahlstrom
18) Kupari
25) Boqvist
35) Denisenko
37) Yamamoto
40) Kostin
42) Brannstrom
49) Nylander
54) Boqvist
65) Clague
66) Berggren
77) Studnicka
83) Katchouk
88) Juulsen
94) Lindblom
95) Anderson-Dolan

Spoiler: Sexual Assault

62) Formenton
78) Foote

 

[RobertKron]

Also, the players who move up slowly and still go on to have fruitful NHL careers as offensive producers almost universally do it by getting their foot in the door with other areas of their game that endear them to coaches and afford them the opportunity to figure it out.

 

[sting101]

Anything less than a point-per-game would be disappointing and would mean he probably isn't going to make it.

i think this rigid claim though is what triggered the response MS and also the 3rd rd pick valuation that didn't account for mono and and a couple injuries and neglected his elite talents.

To be fair i was down on the pick also D+1 as the traits i didn't like were magnified and the results were trending as a bust but i didnt realize the impact of his health issues fully and D+2 showed just how elite a shooter and thinker he is and why Allvin/scouts had him at 7

If he's adjusting (which in fairness he will need to do given smaller rinks, higher competition chemistry etc) and at .7ppg 30-40 games in (say 40-15-13-28) then it's not a big deal but if he's being used as he should in PP and scoring situations (which would be another red flag if he wasn't) and isn't building off that by the seasons end becoming a dynamic impact AHLer then your point would be completely valid.

JL is certainly value in scoring not being a defensive or physical force so he will be easy to evaluate. We should have a lot of answers by the end of next season in terms of busting vs impact player as most of what you said after is spot on for high picks.

Some are thrust into NHL lineups quickly due to being shit teams also so as a contender with depth we can stand to be a little patient

 

[sandwichbird2023]

2 points in 6 games in his first taste in the AHL last season was a little disappointing. Although you have to cut him some slack for adjusting to a new league, different rink size, and a new country/continent. Definitely hoping for something close to a PPG season for him next year, I think anything 0.85 or above is acceptable based on Abby's roster. The top 2 scorer from last season are both wingers (Karlsson and Bains), I'm not sure JL plays with either. The C depth is pretty weak, I don't think Raty even play C regularly down there? It would make it tough for JL putting up points, but if he is a legit top 6 NHL'er in the future, he'll have to find a way to make it work.

 

[sting101]

I think he’s going to start really slow. Look slow, weak, and not able to read/keep up with the play. Then after about 2-3 months it will click with him. He’s kind of done that at every time he moves up a level. Needs time to figure out that level and how to attack it then the confidence builds. Probably finishes with something like 60 points and almost all of them are in the second half.

He doesn’t seem to have the same developmental trajectory as most prospects.

Why would he look slow. He's a fast skater. His U20 top speed was top3 and it's not like he has slow feet like Boeser. Are you thinking he will get pinched off a lot due to the smaller ice maybe?

The weak part and needing adjustment time i agree with. As a elite sniper he will need to find the timing and areas of a smaller to rink that he can get his shot off.

 

[MS]

Also, the players who move up slowly and still go on to have fruitful NHL careers as offensive producers almost universally do it by getting their foot in the door with other areas of their game that endear them to coaches and afford them the opportunity to figure it out.

Absolutely.

If you look at the top-6 forwards around the league the substantial majority are guys who blew through to the NHL quickly by age 20-21 and then most of the rest are your Blake Colemans who made the NHL because of speed/size/physicality/defense and then managed to eventually work their way into more prominent roles with the leeway the rest of their game provided them.

The amount of small/skill guys who cooked unremarkably in the AHL for 100+ games and then somehow made the jump to NHL scorer is very, very low. There's the odd Conor Garland unicorn but it's a very rare thing and most guys who do the Jordan Schroeder/Niklas Jensen thing end up turning out like Schroeder and Jensen did.

i think this rigid claim though is what triggered the response MS and also the 3rd rd pick valuation that didn't account for mono and and a couple injuries and neglected his elite talents.

To be fair i was down on the pick also D+1 as the traits i didn't like were magnified and the results were trending as a bust but i didnt realize the impact of his health issues fully and D+2 showed just how elite a shooter and thinker he is and why Allvin/scouts had him at 7

To be clear, it wasn't a '3rd round pick valuation'. The question was where JL would go in the 2023 draft if he had been born a month later. The 2023 draft was considered the strongest in ages and the 2022 draft was considered a terrible one, and even the 2022 version of Lekkerimaki is probably a borderline first rounder in that better draft. I said that Lekkerimaki would probably be a mid-late 2nd in a 2022 re-draft which I think was totally fair and probably correct.

And again, this isn't some sort of positive/negative opinion thing on Lekkerimaki. It's just saying where I think a player with the season he had would probably have gone.

If he's adjusting (which in fairness he will need to do given smaller rinks, higher competition chemistry etc) and at .7ppg 30-40 games in (say 40-15-13-28) then it's not a big deal but if he's being used as he should in PP and scoring situations (which would be another red flag if he wasn't) and isn't building off that by the seasons end becoming a dynamic impact AHLer then your point would be completely valid.

JL is certainly value in scoring not being a defensive or physical force so he will be easy to evaluate. We should have a lot of answers by the end of next season in terms of busting vs impact player as most of what you said after is spot on for high picks.

Some are thrust into NHL lineups quickly due to being shit teams also so as a contender with depth we can stand to be a little patient

There's nothing wrong with being patient and letting him cook if he's doing the Stankoven/Bourque thing from last season.

But again, given this player's draft position and history, we should be expecting an impact player at the AHL level immediately. This isn't unfair. It would put him somewhere in the middle of the forwards taken in the first round of the 2022 draft.

 

[Raistlin]

I think its because hes not going to be used to the physicality in N.america at first and will play timid, it took him a while to learn how to hang onto the puck longer and play in traffic in his D+2, once he did, he was able to display his myriad of shots in his arsenal. I believe he will need a period of adjustment time, so if I am to forecast his chances of making the Canucks, I will pick the latter 40 games in his AHL season and judge based on that. He is the type that will need time to "flip the switch" coming from SHL.

 

[sting101]

2 points in 6 games in his first taste in the AHL last season was a little disappointing. Although you have to cut him some slack for adjusting to a new league, different rink size, and a new country/continent. Definitely hoping for something close to a PPG season for him next year, I think anything 0.85 or above is acceptable based on Abby's roster. The top 2 scorer from last season are both wingers (Karlsson and Bains), I'm not sure JL plays with either. The C depth is pretty weak, I don't think Raty even play C regularly down there? It would make it tough for JL putting up points, but if he is a legit top 6 NHL'er in the future, he'll have to find a way to make it work.

6 games is nothing.

Yes if he's a legit top6 NHLer it wont matter he will be David Pastrnak like at the AHL level by 2025. Sasson Smith Raty whoever as long as they are a good AHL C.

I kinda like the possibility of Bains Raty Lekkerimaki

To be clear, it wasn't a '3rd round pick valuation'. The question was where JL would go in the 2023 draft if he had been born a month later. The 2023 draft was considered the strongest in ages and the 2022 draft was considered a terrible one, and even the 2022 version of Lekkerimaki is probably a borderline first rounder in that better draft. I said that Lekkerimaki would probably be a mid-late 2nd in a 2022 re-draft which I think was totally fair and probably correct.

And again, this isn't some sort of positive/negative opinion thing on Lekkerimaki. It's just saying where I think a player with the season he had would probably have gone.

Late 2nd round then....point still stands and 22 vs 23 isn't that much of a gulf...mostly just the top of the draft which is where some people get thrown off when they hear scouts describe drafts. Said the same about 2017 as it turns out it was better than 2016.

Lekkerimaki's skill set would be a massive overlook if so...but lets not get bogged in semantics i just read a lot of people's responses who were triggered by that claim is all...i had devil eyes in his D+1 too so i'm not going after you for it. Our pool looked disgusting and everything was going poorly.

There's nothing wrong with being patient and letting him cook if he's doing the Stankoven/Bourque thing from last season.

But again, given this player's draft position and history, we should be expecting an impact player at the AHL level immediately. This isn't unfair. It would put him somewhere in the middle of the forwards taken in the first round of the 2022 draft.

I think you have to build in some time to adjust. Plenty of studs have been at .5-.6 ppg after 10-20 games before taking flight in the AHL.

In fact as Vector said it's kinda how he's found his way previously and he literally just turned 20 so expecting a PPG impact player the first 10 games will probably lead to disappointment and mean little when he turns a corner at the 20-30 game mark.

Hopefully its a moot point and he forces Tocchet and Allvin to plan for a quick arrival but i think they are gonna let him cook for awhile. If the name is Sprong Heinen and Hoglander they should be looking over their shoulder by February/March or we have a problem.

 

[MS]

I think its because hes not going to be used to the physicality in N.america at first and will play timid, it took him a while to learn how to hang onto the puck longer and play in traffic in his D+2, once he did, he was able to display his myriad of shots in his arsenal. I believe he will need a period of adjustment time, so if I am to forecast his chances of making the Canucks, I will pick the latter 40 games in his AHL season and judge based on that. He is the type that will need time to "flip the switch" coming from SHL.

This is the sort of take that sounds totally reasonable and logical ... but just isn't how things actually usually work.

The guys who make the NHL don't generally need 'adjustment periods'. If you need adjustment periods at lower levels, it generally means you aren't very good.

I posted the 2019 1st round forwards on the last page. 13 of them played in the AHL at or before the age Lekkerimaki is now. 8 of them immediately trashed that league as star-level players and 7 of those guys are now NHL regulars. Of the 5 that didn't, only 2 are in the NHL and both are bottom-6 guys with limited upside.

I'd also strongly argue that the fact that Lekkerimaki has played 3 seasons against men in a nearly-AHL calibre league, trained with the Swedish National Team before being a late cut for last year's WCs, has already had a taste of the AHL, etc. should mean his adjustment period (if any) should be much less than for guys coming from the CHL/NCAA, even given the rink/physicality difference.

 

[Hodgy]

This is so myopic and needlessly rigid. Is this ego-protection due to your bad take about him being worth like a 3rd when he had a tough post draft year while dealing with concussion, other injuries, and mono? Like are you wishcasting his failure?

Because suggesting that the youngest player of the 2022 draft NEEDS to tear apart the AHL in his first season there or he's a bust is just...video game thinking.

He takes a bit of time to figure the leagues he plays in out, he's still young. And people are people. Maybe he comes here and he's home sick for two months and struggles before finding his stride, or maybe he takes a month to adjust to the smaller ice surface.

I really feel like Lekkerimaki is a player type (Boeser too) that you have some blindspots around, because they seem to be at the root of a lot of your worst takes.

This sort of rigid thinking is how you trade someone who turns into like Filip Forsberg (not comparing them directly as players, but the idea of dumping a 20 year old for stupid reasons), for peanuts.

I don't really get why you think its "needlessly rigid" when MS is stating he's got like an 80% bust rate if he doesn't hit around a PPG? He's not saying he's 100% a bust or anything, and currently, one would think Lekkerimaki has like a 50% bust rate anyway. So going up 30% after what would be a disappointing season isn't overly unreasonable.

 

[Hodgy]

Totally.

I've posted the numbers here before but for picks in the 20-30 range of the 1st round *maybe* 30% ever develop into an asset with actual value.

It's very hard to make the NHL, only a small percentage of prospects do make the NHL (especially once you get beyond top-10 picks), and those guys who do make the NHL (especially when it comes to top-6/top-4 types with actual value) consistently dominate and move up levels quickly.

I've been having these arguments here for 20+ years from Nathan Smith through Jordan Schroeder through Niklas Jensen through Kole Lind. If guys linger in the AHL without dominating, they're generally f***ed especially if they're top-6/bust sort of players.

Ya, the one thing that is basically guaranteed on this site, is that a ton of posters on here will fall in love with first round prospects and have an absolutely unrealistic view in terms of the statistical scoring progression that is likely necessary for that prospect to become an NHL player.

I remember people on this site legitimately counting the posts Schroeder was hitting in the AHL and basically adding that to his point totals in an attempt to suggest he was actually tracking better than thought.

 

[MS]

Late 2nd round then....point still stands and 22 vs 23 isn't that much of a gulf...mostly just the top of the draft which is where some people get thrown off when they hear scouts describe drafts. Said the same about 2017 as it turns out it was better than 2016.

Lekkerimaki's skill set would be a massive overlook if so...but lets not get bogged in semantics i just read a lot of people's responses who were triggered by that claim is all...i had devil eyes in his D+1 too so i'm not going after you for it. Our pool looked disgusting and everything was going poorly.

You're acting like my posts about draft position/re-drafts/expectations on Lekkerimaki are an editorialization of my views on the player. They aren't.

Prospect stuck fluctuates wildly. Aatu Raty is an example I've given here before - at the start of his draft year, he was a consensus top-5 pick. Then he went 52nd. Then in the next 18 months he put himself in the position where he'd probably go 1st round in a re-draft. Now he's probably dropped a bit again. People saying he'd go top-5 in 2020 or late 2nd in 2021 or late first in 2023 aren't really voicing an opinion on the player, they're voicing an opinion on how the league likely values the player based on his most recent performance. And none of those takes would have been 'wrong' at the given point even though the fluctuations were massive.

Lekkerimaki was no different. His stock flew up with a great U18s and you're in total denial if you think it didn't drop in a huge way when he had a terrible draft+1. And then it rebounded when he had a much better draft+2.

I love Willander as a prospect but my expectations for him would be the same - if he doesn't step straight onto our roster at the end of this season or at worst dominate the AHL and be pushing for a job by 20-30 games into his first AHL season ... that's disappointing and he won't be tracking well relative to his draft position.

I'm not voicing an opinion on Lekkerimaki in any of the posts I've just made about him. All I'm doing is saying what he needs to do to maintain his status as a top prospect, and what would qualify as successful vs. disappointing. My views on the chances of him meeting those expectations (vs. Willander meeting his as an example) are another discussion entirely.

I think you have to build in some time to adjust. Plenty of studs have been at .5-.6 ppg after 10-20 games before taking flight in the AHL.

In fact as Vector said it's kinda how he's found his way previously and he literally just turned 20 so expecting a PPG impact player the first 10 games will probably lead to disappointment and mean little when he turns a corner at the 20-30 game mark.

Hopefully its a moot point and he forces Tocchet and Allvin to plan for a quick arrival but i think they are gonna let him cook for awhile. If the name is Sprong Heinen and Hoglander they should be looking over their shoulder by February/March or we have a problem.

Again, the guys who make the NHL with his skillset usually do blow the AHL away in their first 10-20 games. I provided a bunch of examples on the last page.

 

[sting101]

Remember when Horvat looked so good in the AHL right away...blew the doors off if i remember correctly. And Miller too that big 23pts in 42 games -12 must have made it apparent he was gonna be a 100pt scorer down the road. Of course they were 19 not 20 so it only matters at 20
that they be impact AHLers even if they were physical beasts. Maybe the mind changes between 19 and 20 to make everything change?

And does it matter that the AHL has gotten stronger with the influx of quality skilled depth in the NHL? No well i guess the kids can stop telling me the NHL is better and deeper than it's ever been then

I think most people understand that a half ppg season in the AHL would be a death nail for a quality NHL scorer at 20

And my rant aside absofuxxinlutely he doesn't have to arrive and be dominant like you guys keep hinting at to still be an excellent scoring top6 winger for us as soon as 25/26.

Draw your line in the sand time i guess

 

[Vector]

Remember when Horvat looked so good in the AHL right away...blew the doors off if i remember correctly. And Miller too that big 23pts in 42 games -12 must have made it apparent he was gonna be a 100pt scorer down the road. Of course they were 19 not 20 so it only matters at 20
that they be impact AHLers even if they were physical beasts. Maybe the mind changes between 19 and 20 to make everything change?

And does it matter that the AHL has gotten stronger with the influx of quality skilled depth in the NHL? No well i guess the kids can stop telling me the NHL is better and deeper than it's ever been then

I think most people understand that a half ppg season in the AHL would be a death nail for a quality NHL scorer at 20

And my rant aside absofuxxinlutely he doesn't have to arrive and be dominant like you guys keep hinting at to still be an excellent scoring top6 winger for us as soon as 25/26.

Draw your line in the sand time i guess

Horvat played 5 games in the AHL and didn't score a point.

 

[RobertKron]

Remember when Horvat looked so good in the AHL right away...blew the doors off if i remember correctly. And Miller too that big 23pts in 42 games -12 must have made it apparent he was gonna be a 100pt scorer down the road. Of course they were 19 not 20 so it only matters at 20
that they be impact AHLers even if they were physical beasts. Maybe the mind changes between 19 and 20 to make everything change?

This is embarrassing.

 

[MS]

Remember when Horvat looked so good in the AHL right away...blew the doors off if i remember correctly. And Miller too that big 23pts in 42 games -12 must have made it apparent he was gonna be a 100pt scorer down the road. Of course they were 19 not 20 so it only matters at 20
that they be impact AHLers even if they were physical beasts. Maybe the mind changes between 19 and 20 to make everything change?

And does it matter that the AHL has gotten stronger with the influx of quality skilled depth in the NHL? No well i guess the kids can stop telling me the NHL is better and deeper than it's ever been then

I think most people understand that a half ppg season in the AHL would be a death nail for a quality NHL scorer at 20

And my rant aside absofuxxinlutely he doesn't have to arrive and be dominant like you guys keep hinting at to still be an excellent scoring top6 winger for us as soon as 25/26.

Draw your line in the sand time i guess

Horvat and Miller both played in the AHL at age 19, and Horvat was a very small sample size rehabbing an injury.

When they were the same age that Lekkerimaki is this season, Horvat scored 40 points in the NHL and Miller was a PPG AHLer who forced his way to the NHL mid-season.

 

[sting101]

You're acting like my posts about draft position/re-drafts/expectations on Lekkerimaki are an editorialization of my views on the player. They aren't.

Prospect stuck fluctuates wildly. Aatu Raty is an example I've given here before - at the start of his draft year, he was a consensus top-5 pick. Then he went 52nd. Then in the next 18 months he put himself in the position where he'd probably go 1st round in a re-draft. Now he's probably dropped a bit again. People saying he'd go top-5 in 2020 or late 2nd in 2021 or late first in 2023 aren't really voicing an opinion on the player, they're voicing an opinion on how the league likely values the player based on his most recent performance. And none of those takes would have been 'wrong' at the given point even though the fluctuations were massive.

Lekkerimaki was no different. His stock flew up with a great U18s and you're in total denial if you think it didn't drop in a huge way when he had a terrible draft+1. And then it rebounded when he had a much better draft+2.

I love Willander as a prospect but my expectations for him would be the same - if he doesn't step straight onto our roster at the end of this season or at worst dominate the AHL and be pushing for a job by 20-30 games into his first AHL season ... that's disappointing and he won't be tracking well relative to his draft position.

I'm not voicing an opinion on Lekkerimaki in any of the posts I've just made about him. All I'm doing is saying what he needs to do to maintain his status as a top prospect, and what would qualify as successful vs. disappointing. My views on the chances of him meeting those expectations (vs. Willander meeting his as an example) are another discussion entirely.





Again, the guys who make the NHL with his skillset usually do blow the AHL away in their first 10-20 games. I provided a bunch of examples on the last page.

None of this has context it's all just subjective based on your opinion. Like how could you prove that Lekkerimaki would have returned just a mid to late 2nd rounder if shopped.



The context you provided is in conclusion not allowing for adjustment periods which is the crux of what were discussing.

For example looking at some now top6 wingers at 20 in the AHL first 10-15 games i've tracked a lot of .5-.6 ppg numbers vs the .8-1.0 ppg final end of year figures.

Is that not an adjustment period or am i off track here? Perhaps someone wants to do more leg work as ive only tracked a small group of players but i'm just gonna bow out here as i got work to do and say i disagree with such stringent small statistical perameters

Horvat played 5 games in the AHL and didn't score a point.

exactly...so much for impact player

 

[Vector]

None of this has context it's all just subjective based on your opinion. Like how could you prove that Lekkerimaki would have returned just a mid to late 2nd rounder if shopped.



The context you provided is in conclusion not allowing for adjustment periods which is the crux of what were discussing.

For example looking at some now top6 wingers at 20 in the AHL first 10-15 games i've tracked a lot of .5-.6 ppg numbers vs the .8-1.0 ppg final end of year figures.

Is that not an adjustment period or am i off track here? Perhaps someone wants to do more leg work as ive only tracked a small group of players but i'm just gonna bow out here as i got work to do and say i disagree with such stringent small statistical perameters


exactly...so much for impact player

I'm not going to lie, I have no idea what argument you are trying to make anymore.

 

[MS]

None of this has context it's all just subjective based on your opinion. Like how could you prove that Lekkerimaki would have returned just a mid to late 2nd rounder if shopped.

Of course we don't actually know, but as illustrated by my Raty example it's very clear that prospect valuation by NHL teams changes WILDLY based on most recent performance. People acted like what I was saying was crazy and impossible and it simply wasn't.

And again, it's this endless thing where the same people who were freaking out about that post about Lekkerimaki were turning around the next minute and posting OMG HUNTER BRZ WAS A STEAL IN THE 3RD, WOULD GO FIRST ROUND IN A RE-DRAFT!

The context you provided is in conclusion not allowing for adjustment periods which is the crux of what were discussing.

For example looking at some now top6 wingers at 20 in the AHL first 10-15 games i've tracked a lot of .5-.6 ppg numbers vs the .8-1.0 ppg final end of year figures.

Is that not an adjustment period or am i off track here? Perhaps someone wants to do more leg work as ive only tracked a small group of players but i'm just gonna bow out here as i got work to do and say i disagree with such stringent small statistical perameters

There are obviously exceptions (I'll toss you a Conor Garland) but, again, I've tracked this stuff for years and spent more time than I'd be willing to admit on it ... and guys who make the NHL as scoring line players blow apart the AHL. Quickly. Consistently. And most never even play a shift in that league.

exactly...so much for impact player

Again, completely different situation - younger player, rehabbing an injury. Also a guy who could do bottom-6 sort of stuff to stick in the NHL.

Like, a guy like Filip Bystedt probably doesn't need to have quite as high of offensive expectations next year as Lekkerimaki because he's a big defensive guy who projects as a middle-6 forward. Lekkerimaki is pure top-6/bust who will need to be a dynamic scorer to stick in the NHL.

 

[RobertKron]

Horvat played 5 games in the AHL and didn't score a point.

Also, that was IIRC a conditioning stint in the midst of a D+2 year where he also scored 13 goals in the NHL and then co-lead the team in playoff scoring. AND Horvat is exactly the type of “brings other things than pure offensive production” player that has been pretty explicitly stated not to be what we’re talking about here.

Aside from using Horvat as an example just being like, really stupid, it is also quite telling that OP didn’t cite examples of players remotely similar to Lekkerimaki in their outburst.

 

[MS]

And I'll repeat this since it seems like a difficult concept to grasp :

Setting out high expectations for what Lekkerimaki needs to do to be successful is NOT criticizing Lekkerimaki.

There are 12 2022 first-round forwards who are going into their first season of NA pro hockey next year (Gauthier, Savoie, Geekie, Nazar, McGroarty (if he signs), Lekkerimaki, Ostlund, Ohgren, Snuggerud (if signed), Yurov, Mesar, Bystedt) and I'd say literally the same thing about all of them. They should all be expected to torch that league, and quickly, if they want to be NHL players. 3 or 4 more were already in the AHL as underage guys, and they should be expected to rip up that league, too, at probably an even greater level.

And I will absolutely guarantee that if we bump this thread in 5 years there will be a *massive* correlation between the guys in that group who made the NHL and the guys who adapted the quickest to the AHL.