Jonathan Lekkerimaki - Arrived in Abbotsford

[VanJack]

After re-watching that Lekkerimaki highlight reel, and then accessing some of the Connor Bedard highlights on YouTube, I'm going to make a controversial observation.

In my opinion, Lekkerimaki shoots the puck harder, and faster than Bedard, the NHL's reigning Calder winner. It's not just the release from Lek....it's the array of shots.

The one-timers along the half wall; his penchant for getting to the middle of the ice and unleashing a seeing-eye wrist shot into the top corner; and his ability to fire a bullet off his back foot, and even whilst skating backwards.

Obviously the rest of Lekkerimaki's game probably needs work. But based strictly on the shot, he's better than the NHL's top young star, at least at this point.

 

[Hoglander]

Unless he steps into camp and blows the doors off, he should be in Abbottsford getting XP and building confidence. He needs to play a complete game so that Tocchet will actually play him when he does arrive. Hopefully he can add some strength in the offseason, and get some callups this year.

When the time comes though, his shot will change the look of the PP and we will have legit dangerous 1-time options on both sides of the ice. Lekk or EP will be open for the 1-timer, and if not, that means Hughes will have a lane straight up the middle, with Miller/Boeser lurking around the net.

 

[Szechwan]

After re-watching that Lekkerimaki highlight reel, and then accessing some of the Connor Bedard highlights on YouTube, I'm going to make a controversial observation.

In my opinion, Lekkerimaki shoots the puck harder, and faster than Bedard, the NHL's reigning Calder winner. It's not just the release from Lek....it's the array of shots.

The one-timers along the half wall; his penchant for getting to the middle of the ice and unleashing a seeing-eye wrist shot into the top corner; and his ability to fire a bullet off his back foot, and even whilst skating backwards.

Obviously the rest of Lekkerimaki's game probably needs work. But based strictly on the shot, he's better than the NHL's top young star, at least at this point.

I would.. not take that one off the Nucks board

 

[Shareefruck]

if he earns a spot on the team out of camp that would be a huge bonus

but i don’t think it’s impossible

I'm crossing my fingers, personally. Would free up Hoglander to play in his ideal role-- Carrying the production of an excellent fourth line that fits him really well. Could legitimately have four outright dominant lines if the stars somehow align with that.

 

[settinguptheplay]

After re-watching that Lekkerimaki highlight reel, and then accessing some of the Connor Bedard highlights on YouTube, I'm going to make a controversial observation.

In my opinion, Lekkerimaki shoots the puck harder, and faster than Bedard, the NHL's reigning Calder winner. It's not just the release from Lek....it's the array of shots.

The one-timers along the half wall; his penchant for getting to the middle of the ice and unleashing a seeing-eye wrist shot into the top corner; and his ability to fire a bullet off his back foot, and even whilst skating backwards.

Obviously the rest of Lekkerimaki's game probably needs work. But based strictly on the shot, he's better than the NHL's top young star, at least at this point.

Bold take.

The biggest difference, and the one that sets Bedard apart, is how quick Bedard gets his shot off. Lekk may hang or even surpass in how hard the shot comes off but is not nearly as quick in its release. Also, Bedard has an ability to "hide" the direction the puck is being released right up until the puck has left the stick. Not something one might notice watching the game through the TV. But I suspect you know exactly what I mean. Bedard is an absolute master at it.

Love the bold positive take though. Hopefully Lekkerimaki continues his positive development curve and is a full time NHLer by seasons send!

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I'm crossing my fingers, personally. Would free up Hoglander to play in his ideal role-- Carrying the production of an excellent fourth line that fits him really well. Could legitimately have four outright dominant lines if the stars somehow align with that.

i think we are owed it

we have never had two generations align, which is how the ducks won (the niedermayer/pronger/selanne group plus getzlaf and perry ready to contribute) or new jersey when rafalski, madden, gomez, and white all came in as rookies. toffoli and pearson on the second kings cup. matt murray and jake guentzel. and on and on

but the sedins developed too slowly to help naslund and bert. and tanev wasn’t ready to really contribute in 2011, nor hodgson. the 94 team had bure but then he fell apart for the next three years and the guys who would have extended that core’s window were either gone (nedved, kron, ward, valk) or never developed (cullimore, tully, mike fountain, corey hirsch) or were too slow (aucoin, peca, ohlund, scatchard, walker).

one of these days the hockey gods are going to have to give us a real push from below.

lotta pressure on you little lek

 

[logan5]

Too much talent to not make the team out of training camp. I posted this before, but it's worth posting again, because very few U20 players have done what Lekk has done...

I ranked SHL top goal scorers by their % of the teams total goals, and Lekkerimaki is 1st in the SHL by a pretty decent margin. He scored 16.5% of Orebro's total goals. The next best are David Tomasek - 14.2%, Marcus Sylvegård - 14.2%, Ty Rattie - 13.8%, Patrick Russell - 13.8%. Lekk also played less games, so he could have easily boosted that number to17.5% if he plays a full season like most of the other goal leaders.

 

[VanJack]

Seems more obvious all the time that there simply won't be any openings for Lekkerimaki in Vancouver this year, no matter how he performs in training camp.

But what are the predictions? One year in the AHL, before he's knocking on the door of the NHL? What's a realistic points projection for him in the AHL?

 

[MS]

Seems more obvious all the time that there simply won't be any openings for Lekkerimaki in Vancouver this year, no matter how he performs in training camp.

But what are the predictions? One year in the AHL, before he's knocking on the door of the NHL? What's a realistic points projection for him in the AHL?

Anything less than a point-per-game would be disappointing and would mean he probably isn't going to make it.

 

[SantosLHalpar]

Anything less than a point-per-game would be disappointing and would mean he probably isn't going to make it.

Absurd. You're basically saying if he isn't a top 10 AHL scorer in his first NA season, he won't make the NHL. There were something like 8ppg players in the top 40 AHL scorers last year. Oh well. Ridiculous totalizing declarations are a HF staple I suppose. Part of the fun.

 

[Vector]

Anything less than a point-per-game would be disappointing and would mean he probably isn't going to make it.

I think he’s going to start really slow. Look slow, weak, and not able to read/keep up with the play. Then after about 2-3 months it will click with him. He’s kind of done that at every time he moves up a level. Needs time to figure out that level and how to attack it then the confidence builds. Probably finishes with something like 60 points and almost all of them are in the second half.

He doesn’t seem to have the same developmental trajectory as most prospects.

 

[MS]

Absurd. You're basically saying if he isn't a top 10 AHL scorer in his first NA season, he won't make the NHL. There were something like 8ppg players in the top 40 AHL scorers last year. Oh well. Ridiculous totalizing declarations are a HF staple I suppose. Part of the fun.

He's a pure top-6/bust guy.

Most of those guys who make it are in the NHL in their draft +3. If he isn't around a PPG in the AHL this year, he's probably tracking 80%+ to be a bust. People don't like hearing this, but it's how it works *especially* for this type of player.

If he comes out and scores 41 points in 65 games or something at this level at this age ... he's probably toast.

 

[pitseleh]

He's a pure top-6/bust guy.

Most of those guys who make it are in the NHL in their draft +3. If he isn't around a PPG in the AHL this year, he's probably tracking 80%+ to be a bust. People don't like hearing this, but it's how it works *especially* for this type of player.

If he comes out and scores 41 points in 65 games or something at this level at this age ... he's probably toast.

While I agree generally, Lekkerimaki is a late birthday so he should have a bit more runway if he doesn’t come out the gate strongly.

 

[LemonSauceD]

I expect anywhere between 0.90-1.00ppg. The higher the better and anything less I’d have to agree with MS.

Personally I think he does well. Seems like a sure bet to score 10-15 goals on the top PP alone

 

[arttk]

He's a pure top-6/bust guy.

Most of those guys who make it are in the NHL in their draft +3. If he isn't around a PPG in the AHL this year, he's probably tracking 80%+ to be a bust. People don't like hearing this, but it's how it works *especially* for this type of player.

If he comes out and scores 41 points in 65 games or something at this level at this age ... he's probably toast.

Is there enough quality on the AHL roster for him to be like a PPG guy? Like to be PPG you need the guys on his line to be able to finish.

 

[RobertKron]

Is there enough quality on the AHL roster for him to be like a PPG guy? Like to be PPG you need the guys on his line to be able to finish.

I have it on good authority that he's a better scorer than Connor Bedard, so you'd imagine he ought to make quick work of the AHL regardless.

 

[RobertKron]

Absurd. You're basically saying if he isn't a top 10 AHL scorer in his first NA season, he won't make the NHL. There were something like 8ppg players in the top 40 AHL scorers last year. Oh well. Ridiculous totalizing declarations are a HF staple I suppose. Part of the fun.

Like, there are obviously always going to be outliers, but for a pure pure offensive player that's a reasonably safe bet. Like, part of the reason there aren't typically a ton of full-season PPG+ players in the AHL is because if you're still in the AHL and you've been scoring like that all year, then there's usually something else really wrong with you.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

He's a pure top-6/bust guy.

Most of those guys who make it are in the NHL in their draft +3. If he isn't around a PPG in the AHL this year, he's probably tracking 80%+ to be a bust. People don't like hearing this, but it's how it works *especially* for this type of player.

If he comes out and scores 41 points in 65 games or something at this level at this age ... he's probably toast.

This is so myopic and needlessly rigid. Is this ego-protection due to your bad take about him being worth like a 3rd when he had a tough post draft year while dealing with concussion, other injuries, and mono? Like are you wishcasting his failure?

Because suggesting that the youngest player of the 2022 draft NEEDS to tear apart the AHL in his first season there or he's a bust is just...video game thinking.

He takes a bit of time to figure the leagues he plays in out, he's still young. And people are people. Maybe he comes here and he's home sick for two months and struggles before finding his stride, or maybe he takes a month to adjust to the smaller ice surface.

I really feel like Lekkerimaki is a player type (Boeser too) that you have some blindspots around, because they seem to be at the root of a lot of your worst takes.

This sort of rigid thinking is how you trade someone who turns into like Filip Forsberg (not comparing them directly as players, but the idea of dumping a 20 year old for stupid reasons), for peanuts.

 

[Bleach Clean]

This is so myopic and needlessly rigid. Is this ego-protection due to your bad take about him being worth like a 3rd when he had a tough post draft year while dealing with concussion, other injuries, and mono? Like are you wishcasting his failure?

Because suggesting that the youngest player of the 2022 draft NEEDS to tear apart the AHL in his first season there or he's a bust is just...video game thinking.

He takes a bit of time to figure the leagues he plays in out, he's still young. And people are people. Maybe he comes here and he's home sick for two months and struggles before finding his stride, or maybe he takes a month to adjust to the smaller ice surface.

I really feel like Lekkerimaki is a player type (Boeser too) that you have some blindspots around, because they seem to be at the root of a lot of your worst takes.

This sort of rigid thinking is how you trade someone who turns into like Filip Forsberg (not comparing them directly as players, but the idea of dumping a 20 year old for stupid reasons), for peanuts.

Filip Forsberg's progression actually makes sense to bear in mind here. He didn't graduate to the NHL until his D+4 season (iirc). Different type of player of course, but development isn't linear and AHL supporting casts aren't the same.

As long as Lekkerimaki adjusts to the speed and wall work of the AHL, the points will come for him.

 

[strattonius]

This is so myopic and needlessly rigid. Is this ego-protection due to your bad take about him being worth like a 3rd when he had a tough post draft year while dealing with concussion, other injuries, and mono? Like are you wishcasting his failure?

Because suggesting that the youngest player of the 2022 draft NEEDS to tear apart the AHL in his first season there or he's a bust is just...video game thinking.

He takes a bit of time to figure the leagues he plays in out, he's still young. And people are people. Maybe he comes here and he's home sick for two months and struggles before finding his stride, or maybe he takes a month to adjust to the smaller ice surface.

I really feel like Lekkerimaki is a player type (Boeser too) that you have some blindspots around, because they seem to be at the root of a lot of your worst takes.

This sort of rigid thinking is how you trade someone who turns into like Filip Forsberg (not comparing them directly as players, but the idea of dumping a 20 year old for stupid reasons), for peanuts.

Marco Rossi comes to mind as a comparable. Didn't blow the doors off the AHL had 53 pts in 63 games. Then came to the NHL for a bunch of games and looked lost. Last year he turned a corner at 22 years old.

We will need to see Lekkerimaki producing. Doesn't have to be a point per game but he will need to be around .75ppg in the AHL to realistically traject to an NHL'er.

I'm giving Lekkerimaki a couple FULL years. So a regular NHL'er by year 3 from now. And that still means he's producing in the AHL. No idea why some people insist he should be cracking a deep Canucks forward roster next year- completely unrealistic regardless of his talent.

 

[MS]

This is so myopic and needlessly rigid. Is this ego-protection due to your bad take about him being worth like a 3rd when he had a tough post draft year while dealing with concussion, other injuries, and mono? Like are you wishcasting his failure?

Because suggesting that the youngest player of the 2022 draft NEEDS to tear apart the AHL in his first season there or he's a bust is just...video game thinking.

He takes a bit of time to figure the leagues he plays in out, he's still young. And people are people. Maybe he comes here and he's home sick for two months and struggles before finding his stride, or maybe he takes a month to adjust to the smaller ice surface.

I really feel like Lekkerimaki is a player type (Boeser too) that you have some blindspots around, because they seem to be at the root of a lot of your worst takes.

This sort of rigid thinking is how you trade someone who turns into like Filip Forsberg (not comparing them directly as players, but the idea of dumping a 20 year old for stupid reasons), for peanuts.

It's actually incredible I'm still needing to have these arguments. I've been having them back to when Nathan Smith and Jordan Schroeder flopped when they hit the AHL and I've been right pretty nearly every time ... and people still don't get how it works.

These are the 18 forwards from the 2019 draft, as an example, and where they were in their draft +3:

1. Jack Hughes - 3rd full NHL season.
2. Kaapo Kakko - 3rd full NHL season.
3. Kirby Dach - 3rd full NHL season.
5. Alex Turcotte - 0.67 PPG in the AHL.
7. Dylan Cozens - 2nd full NHL season.
9. Trevor Zegras - 1st full NHL season (1.2 PPG in the AHL the previous year).
10. Vasily Podkolzin - 1st full NHL season.
11. Matt Boldy - 1st (mostly) full NHL season, (1.2 PPG in brief AHL stint).
15. Cole Caufield - 1st full NHL season (1.1 PPG in brief AHL stint).
16. Alex Newhook- 1st full NHL season (1.1 PPG in brief AHL stint).
17. Peyton Krebs - 1st (mostly) full NHL season (1.0 PPG in brief AHL stint)
21. Samuel Poulin - 0.5 PPG in the AHL.
23. Simon Holmstrom - 0.65 PPG in the AHL.
24. Philip Tomasino - 1st full NHL season (1.1 PPG in brief AHL stint).
25. Connor McMichael - 1st full NHL season (close to PPG in brief AHL stint as a teenager).
26. Jacob Pelletier - 0.93 PPG in the AHL.
28. Ryan Suzuki - 0.41 PPG in the AHL.
29. John Beecher - still in NCAA, 0.55 PPG in late-season AHL stint.

12 of the 18 guys were already NHL regulars by their draft+3 season. To even be in the AHL at this point means you're behind the curve.

Moreover, of those 12 guys 7 spent a bit of time in the AHL and *all 7* were over a PPG or very close to it.

Of the remaining 6, it looks like 2 will stick in the NHL and both of those were big defensive players (Holmstrom and Beecher) with totally different offensive expectations who basically profiled as bottom-6 guys.

And it's always like this. The guys that make the NHL move up quickly through levels and dominate/barely touch the AHL. If you're spending 100+ games in the AHL, you're in a pool of very questionable guys and most of the guys that make it out of that pool are depth defensive players.

And people just never understand this, and when some 1st round pick is sitting at 0.6 PPG in the AHL they think everything is just fine, and then are utterly confused when the player is on waivers 2 years later.

__________

Nothing in my takes on Lekkerimaki so far has been unreasonable/incorrect.

And again, people don't grasp how prospect valuations fluctuate. A guy like Lekkerimaki flew way up in the draft based on a 7-game U18 sample and people can't grasp that he might have gone significantly the other way based on a 50-game sample of poor play. Or that saying this isn't saying he's a bust, and he could rebound and improve his stock again. Fans also LOVE to think their 3rd round pick would go in the first round in a re-draft when they have a massive season, but god forbid you say the opposite about a high pick who has a terrible season.

And I loved Boeser as a prospect, for the record. I thought he could have been signed and stepped straight into the NHL in the summer of 2016 based on what I'd seen from him.

 

[MS]

Filip Forsberg's progression actually makes sense to bear in mind here. He didn't graduate to the NHL until his D+4 season (iirc). Different type of player of course, but development isn't linear and AHL supporting casts aren't the same.

As long as Lekkerimaki adjusts to the speed and wall work of the AHL, the points will come for him.

Filip Forsberg scored about 0.7 PPG in the AHL as a teenager in his draft+2 and then scored 63 points in the NHL in his draft+3.

 

[MS]

Marco Rossi comes to mind as a comparable. Didn't blow the doors off the AHL had 53 pts in 63 games. Then came to the NHL for a bunch of games and looked lost. Last year he turned a corner at 22 years old.

We will need to see Lekkerimaki producing. Doesn't have to be a point per game but he will need to be around .75ppg in the AHL to realistically traject to an NHL'er.

I'm giving Lekkerimaki a couple FULL years. So a regular NHL'er by year 3 from now. And that still means he's producing in the AHL. No idea why some people insist he should be cracking a deep Canucks forward roster next year- completely unrealistic regardless of his talent.

Rossi missed the entire 20-21 season with long COVID so there was a different dynamic there. He also came out and *was* over a PPG for most of that season before his lack of conditioning caught up with him and he slumped in the last month or so.

 

[Vector]

 

[bandwagonesque]

After re-watching that Lekkerimaki highlight reel, and then accessing some of the Connor Bedard highlights on YouTube, I'm going to make a controversial observation.

In my opinion, Lekkerimaki shoots the puck harder, and faster than Bedard, the NHL's reigning Calder winner. It's not just the release from Lek....it's the array of shots.

The one-timers along the half wall; his penchant for getting to the middle of the ice and unleashing a seeing-eye wrist shot into the top corner; and his ability to fire a bullet off his back foot, and even whilst skating backwards.

Obviously the rest of Lekkerimaki's game probably needs work. But based strictly on the shot, he's better than the NHL's top young star, at least at this point.

Based on my own needlessly specific scouting criteria, Ron Jeremy is far ahead of both of them developmentally.