Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, #15 Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[MS]

the thing I find hilarious about it is that people just become attached to these players the moment they are drafted, and it doesn’t even matter who the player is! Like if we had drafted someone different, then you’d be attached to that player instead, you know?

And I guess I get it? Because I sort of operated that way when I was, like, 11, but then, you know …

And just to expand on that, like, I liked this pick at the time. At the time it seemed like a very good pick to me. But, that was six months ago. I have received new information since then. And the new information is bad. And if you’re not adjusting your opinion continuously based on new information, you’re just setting yourself up to be a sucker, and that’s true in general in life.

I think part of the fun of following prospects is getting attached to them and being happy when they do well and hoping they get selected to the WJC where we can cheer for 'our guy' and all that stuff.

But if you're letting the fun side of following prospects cloud your rational judgement, then yeah - you are absolutely setting yourself up to be a sucker. Almost all of these guys amount to nothing outside of first round picks and the odd 2nd/3rd rounder. If you're bullish on more than 2-3 guys in an entire system at any given time, you're probably looking at the world through rose-coloured glasses.

Prospect-following is like an entirely separate aspect of fandom that can be really fun but is also almost completely meaningless outside of those top picks. Like, the last Canuck draft pick from outside the top 3 rounds to actually move the needle was Jannik Hansen who was drafted almost 20 years ago. But I can still enjoy cheering for Costmars and Plaseks and Utunens at the WJC because it's fun to have a bit of skin in the game even though I know that those guys making the WJC is basically the pinnacle of their career and the entire reward for following their careers.

The central problem people have - in perpetuity - is this thing where any prospect that is actually doing well is 'OMG LET'S JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS THAT THIS IS THE BIGGEST STEAL EVER!' while any prospect that isn't doing well is 'Wait and see! Stop jumping to conclusions that this guy isn't going to make it!' And when you have this mindset, everyone is great! And then you end up baffled and angry when a Schroeder or Lind or whatever doesn't make the jump when he's 23 even though that's the way it's been tracking for 4 years.

And yeah : new information. This isn't the NHL where ignoring 5 seasons of performance and then jumping on 25-game sample sizes leads to bad/rash takes. Prospect development is incredibly erratic and unpredictable and the most recent information is by far the most valuable. It's funny how so many people are like 'LOL Benning only trades for guys he liked in junior' - and correct, terrible scouting! - but then also are like 'OMG Tolvanen should be an auto-claim but the Canucks are stupid!' not realizing that they're doing basically exactly the same thing.

The guys to watch for are always the ones with sharp development curves who quickly adapt to new levels. A few of us were pointing at Matias Maccelli last year when he stepped into the AHL as a 4th rounder nobody had heard of and torched that league as a rookie, and now he's one of the leading rookie NHL scorers a year later. I talked repeatedly last year about a guy named Nick Cicek who was an undrafted nobody on an AHL deal who was suddenly the best defender on SJ's AHL team as a rookie and a year later he's in the NHL, too. Watch for a kid named Ryker Evans to be a Calder contender next year for Seattle.

 

[arttk]

I think part of the fun of following prospects is getting attached to them and being happy when they do well and hoping they get selected to the WJC where we can cheer for 'our guy' and all that stuff.

But if you're letting the fun side of following prospects cloud your rational judgement, then yeah - you are absolutely setting yourself up to be a sucker. Almost all of these guys amount to nothing outside of first round picks and the odd 2nd/3rd rounder. If you're bullish on more than 2-3 guys in an entire system at any given time, you're probably looking at the world through rose-coloured glasses.

Prospect-following is like an entirely separate aspect of fandom that can be really fun but is also almost completely meaningless outside of those top picks. Like, the last Canuck draft pick from outside the top 3 rounds to actually move the needle was Jannik Hansen who was drafted almost 20 years ago. But I can still enjoy cheering for Costmars and Plaseks and Utunens at the WJC because it's fun to have a bit of skin in the game even though I know that those guys making the WJC is basically the pinnacle of their career and the entire reward for following their careers.

The central problem people have - in perpetuity - is this thing where any prospect that is actually doing well is 'OMG LET'S JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS THAT THIS IS THE BIGGEST STEAL EVER!' while any prospect that isn't doing well is 'Wait and see! Stop jumping to conclusions that this guy isn't going to make it!' And when you have this mindset, everyone is great! And then you end up baffled and angry when a Schroeder or Lind or whatever doesn't make the jump when he's 23 even though that's the way it's been tracking for 4 years.

And yeah : new information. This isn't the NHL where ignoring 5 seasons of performance and then jumping on 25-game sample sizes leads to bad/rash takes. Prospect development is incredibly erratic and unpredictable and the most recent information is by far the most valuable. It's funny how so many people are like 'LOL Benning only trades for guys he liked in junior' - and correct, terrible scouting! - but then also are like 'OMG Tolvanen should be an auto-claim but the Canucks are stupid!' not realizing that they're doing basically exactly the same thing.

The guys to watch for are always the ones with sharp development curves who quickly adapt to new levels. A few of us were pointing at Matias Maccelli last year when he stepped into the AHL as a 4th rounder nobody had heard of and torched that league as a rookie, and now he's one of the leading rookie NHL scorers a year later. I talked repeatedly last year about a guy named Nick Cicek who was an undrafted nobody on an AHL deal who was suddenly the best defender on SJ's AHL team as a rookie and a year later he's in the NHL, too. Watch for a kid named Ryker Evans to be a Calder contender next year for Seattle.

I guess with Lekkerimaki, he did show well in the SHL last season so it’s more comforting for fans us to think that there are other reasons that contribute to his bad season. I guess looking at it from the outside, it’s easy for us to rationalize that Djurgarden is more focused on getting promoted than developing kids.
I mean yeah things aren’t looking great but I guess people do want to be hopeful.

 

[MS]

I guess with Lekkerimaki, he did show well in the SHL last season so it’s more comforting for fans us to think that there are other reasons that contribute to his bad season. I guess looking at it from the outside, it’s easy for us to rationalize that Djurgarden is more focused on getting promoted than developing kids.
I mean yeah things aren’t looking great but I guess people do want to be hopeful.

The problem is that that is not a very good league and an NHL first round pick should be ripping it up and one of the engines driving the promotion attempt. If that's not the case, it's problematic.

Pretty much every quality NHL player that was in the league at that age torched it - Pettersson, Pastrnak, Filip Forsberg, Kopitar, etc. Even Jonathan Dahlen ripped it up in that league at this age. A player with his experience and draft position should have been expected to be a PPG player or close to it this year if his development was on track.

The other problem is that he also looked very bad at the summer WJCs with a different group of younger players.

Now, he obviously has talent to do what he did last year and may turn it around completely in the 2nd half. But any concern is very legitimate.

 

[arttk]

The problem is that that is not a very good league and an NHL first round pick should be ripping it up and one of the engines driving the promotion attempt. If that's not the case, it's problematic.

Pretty much every quality NHL player that was in the league at that age torched it - Pettersson, Pastrnak, Filip Forsberg, Kopitar, etc. Even Jonathan Dahlen ripped it up in that league at this age. A player with his experience and draft position should have been expected to be a PPG player or close to it this year if his development was on track.

The other problem is that he also looked very bad at the summer WJCs with a different group of younger players.

Now, he obviously has talent to do what he did last year and may turn it around completely in the 2nd half. But any concern is very legitimate.

Yeah all the stuff you are mentioning are definite flags. Like I said, we hope there are other circumstances that are leading to this, like Djurgarden’s priorities affecting all their prospects and perhaps losing a summer due to mono.
They keywords are we hope and the reasons for it is because our cupboard is pretty damn empty.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i can't imagine why anyone would think putting this undersized kid in the ahl would do anything good. he might perhaps do ok in the chl in the right situation but the only place reliably better than where he is for a player like that would be the ncaa. i'd like to see some swedish dudes go to the ncaa at some point.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

There’s a reason he fell.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

There’s a reason he fell.

Of course there was. And there’s reasons why Hughes and EP fell too. And guys like McAvoy and others.
All these guys outside of the top two or three picks (and sometimes even them) have weaknesses in their games. It’s a matter of projecting whether a 17 year old kid can overcome those weaknesses. Which is why so many draft lists vary by so much.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

I'm going to put more emphasis on his second half. Mono is a horrible thing that if it goes badly can take months and in rare cases, years to overcome. A good WJC would be a nice way to turn things around.

 

[arttk]

feels like the only times I hear about mono is with hockey players…

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

feels like the only times I hear about mono is with hockey players…

And when they suck

Of course there was. And there’s reasons why Hughes and EP fell too. And guys like McAvoy and others.
All these guys outside of the top two or three picks (and sometimes even them) have weaknesses in their games. It’s a matter of projecting whether a 17 year old kid can overcome those weaknesses. Which is why so many draft lists vary by so much.

Or he’s a small one dimensional wing who does not provide much else besides his shot.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

And when they suck


Or he’s a small one dimensional wing who does not provide much else besides his shot.

Could be. We will have to see.

 

[Bgav]

Hopefully he turns it around.

 

[DFAC]

Brutal giveaway leading to a goal

 

[Szechwan]

Was a bit surprised to see him used net-front on the PP.

Not a great period from Re-Petey either.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Brutal giveaway leading to a goal

Following Miller’s lead I see

 

[Wandering Cynic]

Brutal giveaway leading to a goal

Extremely common Lekkerimaki L

 

[Deeds26]

This Swedish team just has 0 chemistry it seems, like something about this batch of Swedish prospects playing together just does not work.

Last year was abysmal, and this pre-tournament game is showing more of the same. Obviously, it is one game, and they could turn it on for the actual tournament, but right now, it does not look good for the Swedes.

 

[Canucks LB]

I really want to just get really upset about the pick, but honestly, it was a swing for the fences pick, it was definitely 1/2 best players available at that spot.

So it’s hard to really get angry, that being said, every time I watch him play, it’s pretty incredible at how unbelievably disappointing he looks, there’s literally nothing going on for him atm

 

[DFAC]

I really want to just get really upset about the pick, but honestly, it was a swing for the fences pick, it was definitely 1/2 best players available at that spot.

So it’s hard to really get angry, that being said, every time I watch him play, it’s pretty incredible at how unbelievably disappointing he looks, there’s literally nothing going on for him atm

Its looking more and more like other teams knew this and thats why he dropped like a rock on draft day

 

[wonton15]

Not a single positive thing since he got drafted

Looking like he dropped for a clear reason

 

[bossram]

I really was not a fan of the Lekkerimaki selection. EP had him rated pretty low, and his profile read like a very limited, one-dimensional player. He needs to be fed chances, and then he can finish. A Mike Hoffman-esque player if he reaches the NHL, which is IMO not a very valuable player.

A player of his draft position needs to be dictating play at lower levels (especially now that he's at Allsvenskan).

 

[DFAC]

I really was not a fan of the Lekkerimaki selection. EP had him rated pretty low, and his profile read like a very limited, one-dimensional player. He needs to be fed chances, and then he can finish. A Mike Hoffman-esque player if he reaches the NHL, which is IMO not a very valuable player.

A player of his draft position needs to be dictating play at lower levels (especially now that he's at Allsvenskan).

To be fair, it seems like all of Ostlund and Ohgren are struggling too… could be a team/coaching thing?

 

[Breakers]

Following Miller’s lead I see

LOLOL
I was like toe drag at the offensive blue line with zero support………


That’s JT MILLER’s trademark move.

 

[VanJack]

Last season, Lekkerimaki was considered a 'draft day faller' after appearing in the top-10 rankings for most of the season. As we all know, he fell all the way to the Canucks at #15. Maybe there was a reason.

Could be he's just having a bad year. But looking back at past drafts at some of the other guys who've fallen in the first round doesn't inspire confidence. There's usually a reason a lot of scouts cool on them,

 

[Hoglander]

It isn't just that he's doing nothing this year, he is actually worse than last year. Showed more promise in a tougher league, then the team gets relegated to a weaker league, and he shits the bed.

Remember, our scouts were "pounding the table" for this guy...