Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, #15 Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[thefeebster]

One thing I’m coming to realize is that if you constantly identify the BPA as a talented smallish one-dimensional scoring winger, you’re going to get a very unbalanced team and system. And it’s easy to say ‘trade from strength’ but these types of player don’t carry value well and quality young C and D are virtually impossible to acquire without drafting them. Meanwhile decent scoring wingers are pretty easy to acquire via trade or relatively cheaply in UFA.

I’d argue it might be better to draft C and D in the first round every year and have 50% bust than hit 100% of the time on smallish skill wingers, when you look at the actual value proposition involved.

That is disingenuous and absurd. Every year will not be talented "smallish one-dimensional scoring wingers", even based on randomized draft position.

If that is your strategy, then i don't want to hear another complaint about Juolevi. He would fit your strategy of drafting for need and accounting for busting. Everything just went according to plan.

 

[MS]

That is disingenuous and absurd. Every year will not be talented "smallish one-dimensional scoring wingers", even based on randomized draft position.

If that is your strategy, then i don't want to hear another complaint about Juolevi. He would fit your strategy of drafting for need and accounting for busting. Everything just went according to plan.

It was a generalization to make a point about asset value. Obviously that would not be the player that comes up every year. The point was that a higher bust risk might be justified to add players at higher-value positions.

If we’d drafted for need in 2016 and our scouts had done a better job of evaluating the best defenders, that choice would have been fine.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I would have tried to trade down (and it sounds like there were options for the team to do that).

They ended up in this place where they were right at the start of this huge run on relatively equal smallish skill forwards. A guy like Jagger Firkus who has a very similar skillset to Lekkerimaki hasn’t even been taken yet.

I don’t hate this pick. But it doesn’t seem like a great extraction of value from our situation and doesn’t solve a positional need.



I was never down on the Pettersson pick. At all. My take was that it seemed reasonable but I didn’t know a lot about him.

I didn’t hate Hughes but I preferred Dobson.



My beef is that it’s framing a binary choice that in most cases simply doesn’t exist.

Guess that is a way to understand it if you really ignore the context the term comes from.. Oh well.

 

[MS]

Guesd that is a way to understand it if you really ignore the context the term comes from.. Oh well.

Please explain.

 

[valkynax]

DnD asked Craig Button about his mock draft putting Pickering with the Orcas, he proceeds to immediately go on a rambling rant of "oh it's just a mock draft it doesn't mean anything blah blah blah", then went on and on about how Van should've drafted a defenseman.

For God's sake Craig, what are you, a chihuahua?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Huh, that’s twice today the Canucks have deleted and re posted a tweet seconds later.

Here:

the shot is nice, but tbh i am more excited about his sweet hands in tight

 

[sting101]

People talk about ‘BPA’ like it’s this concrete thing when it’s actually an artificial construct that is totally meaningless.

yes Moritz Seider BPA right?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

That is disingenuous and absurd. Every year will not be talented "smallish one-dimensional scoring wingers", even based on randomized draft position.

If that is your strategy, then i don't want to hear another complaint about Juolevi. He would fit your strategy of drafting for need and accounting for busting. Everything just went according to plan.

he does have a point though. your most likely fallers are big centers and d with the tools but not the toolbox, or small skill wingers and centers who will likely be moved to the wing at the next level.

the same goes for the trade market. small skill wingers, like garland for ex, are the most undervalued asset other than goalies. look at chicago with panarin, teravainen, and now debrindcat.

part of this is thinking back to how schroeder and shinkaruk were considered steals at the time. the other is, how many hoglanders, garlands, kuzmenkos, and lekkermakis can hit? and even if they all do, what kind of value do they realistically have on the market if you want to flip them for players at positions of need?

that said, in a vacuum i like this kid.

 

[bossram]

It was a generalization to make a point about asset value. Obviously that would not be the player that comes up every year. The point was that a higher bust risk might be justified to add players at higher-value positions.

If we’d drafted for need in 2016 and our scouts had done a better job of evaluating the best defenders, that choice would have been fine.

This is basically just saying, "if your scouts are good, you'll have better prospects". Which I agree with, but isn't actionable advice.

It's more to do with accurately forecasting who will be the actual BPA. Is it the small/soft faller? Or is it actually someone else. It's a player evaluation question, not a philosophical one about player types.

I personally don't think Lekkerimaki was the best pick there. Not because he's "soft and skilled", but I think there were other players available who will be better NHLers.

 

[StreetHawk]

I would have tried to trade down (and it sounds like there were options for the team to do that).

They ended up in this place where they were right at the start of this huge run on relatively equal smallish skill forwards. A guy like Jagger Firkus who has a very similar skillset to Lekkerimaki hasn’t even been taken yet.

I don’t hate this pick. But it doesn’t seem like a great extraction of value from our situation and doesn’t solve a positional need.



I was never down on the Pettersson pick. At all. My take was that it seemed reasonable but I didn’t know a lot about him.

I didn’t hate Hughes but I preferred Dobson.



My beef is that it’s framing a binary choice that in most cases simply doesn’t exist.

I’m sure that there was talk about dropping down but since there were no trade downs after 11 don’t get the sense that the offers or the drop made sense. Or the other team didn’t value the option to trade up enough to pull the trigger.

I’m of the mindset that if you covet a player go get him. Pay the 3rd or in this case a second if you truly value the guy.

I recall watching a segment about the Seahawks called waiting for Wilson. Where the Hawks ranked him as the 2nd best QB behind Luck but just kept waiting for him in round 3 despite them fearing a couple of teams that were picking within 10 spots ahead of them possibly taking Wilson. After watching it I was like guys, all it would have taken was your 4th rounder who turned out to be a DT named Howard who played 1 year for the Hawks and was cut. You wouldn’t risk that to get a guy you want? If you are concerned about other clubs go get the guy and give up the extra pick.

 

[DonnyNucker]

I would have tried to trade down (and it sounds like there were options for the team to do that).

They ended up in this place where they were right at the start of this huge run on relatively equal smallish skill forwards. A guy like Jagger Firkus who has a very similar skillset to Lekkerimaki hasn’t even been taken yet.

I don’t hate this pick. But it doesn’t seem like a great extraction of value from our situation and doesn’t solve a positional need.



I was never down on the Pettersson pick. At all. My take was that it seemed reasonable but I didn’t know a lot about him.

I didn’t hate Hughes but I preferred Dobson.



My beef is that it’s framing a binary choice that in most cases simply doesn’t exist.

Who would you select if they couldn’t trade down?

 

[VancouverJagger]

Seeing some of these comments I'm getting heavy EP vibes...........A lot of people were complaining about his size and the fact he was a twig........he turned out ok.

This has all the makings of me to be an absolute steal. I think anyone saying he's slow or with a low IQ are out to lunch. Year 3 and this guy is in the NHL. He's gonna be a stud...........watch

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

My questions with Lekkerimaki's hockey sense have less to do with playmaking ability and more with just processing the game. The EP rinkside scouting reports aren't flattering.

David St. Louis: "The doubts about Lekkerimäki's hockey sense are back. He rarely makes the best play unless it is evident and that's problematic. Thinking on the fly, IDing on the fly, and recognizing where his advantages are...These elements are not strengths of his game."

JD Burke: "You watch a game like this one, though, and the questions about his overall sense and ability to read the game cast a shadow over the rest of his game that his tools can’t escape. He missed at least two or three obvious breakout reads as a passer in this contest that resulted in his team defending far longer than they should’ve had to in either instance."

Etc ... Just not optimistic, but I guess we'll see.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

From Bob McKenzies notes on this years draft...It appears that there were not any obvious superstars in it..

“It’s a peculiar draft year,” said one NHL team head scout. “Neither one of them [Slafkovsky or Wright] are locks to be first-line players in the NHL. I’m not saying one or the other couldn’t become first liners, they’re both good prospects, but unlike a lot of years, this draft doesn’t have any great prospects. There are no slam dunks. There are things I like about both guys, but I have some reservations, too.”

 

[RutherPlan]

Seeing some of these comments I'm getting heavy EP vibes...........A lot of people were complaining about his size and the fact he was a twig........he turned out ok.

This has all the makings of me to be an absolute steal. I think anyone saying he's slow or with a low IQ are out to lunch. Year 3 and this guy is in the NHL. He's gonna be a stud...........watch

I personally get David Pastrnak vibes,

Pastrnak was drafted at 6 feet, 165lbs and was deemed a slight winger with potential. Bruins immediately put him in the AHL, he performed well and became a full tiime NHL player.

I'm hoping Canucks can convince Lekkerimaki to do the same, play in Abbotsford and develop rather than go back to Sweden. The kld's shot is Boeser's rookie year shot but on steroids.

 

[VancouverJagger]

I personally get David Pastrnak vibes,

Pastrnak was drafted at 6 feet, 165lbs and was deemed a slight winger with potential. Bruins immediately put him in the AHL, he performed well and became a full tiime NHL player.

I'm hoping Canucks can convince Lekkerimaki to do the same, play in Abbotsford and develop rather than go back to Sweden. The kld's shot is Boeser's rookie year shot but on steroids.

Already said he's going back to Sweden next year. It's the following year this might be a consideration (the AHL).

He's actually a good 5-10 lbs heavier then EP was and while his stride isn't perfect he's by no means slow.

I would much rather have a guy with 1st line superstar potential then some guy who caps out at a 3rd line player who we selected cus he's big or fits an organizational need.

 

[sting101]

Jeesh im surprised there is so much push back here on MS

2 picks in the top50 in 3yrs and both are wingers

2019 the last time we had a normal draft Podkolzin and Hoglander

At some point you have to draft C's and D.

This narrative of BPA is rich. The only issue is when you draft a inferior player like Virtanen needing shoulder surgery because he gives you Cam Neely vibes meanwhile Ehlers and Nylander are better skaters better IQ better scoring rates, better hands and vision and in the case of Juolevi you passed on a guy who had the best hands below the circles in the draft and was 2pts per game with bloodlines NHL ready and considered a 1st line talent for a guy that they were convinced would be a top4. Not exactly a good reason to pass on Tkachuk and it smashed us in the face both times.

As far as Lekkerimaki. I like watching this player. He's deceptive has excellent hands and scoring instincts. He changes angles is precise and has the IQ and vision of a potential front line player. My issue is that i dont see the skating to be able to back teams off and he's smallish and given the weight of this draft he's not being seen as a front line player by almost all scouting agencies. I'm happy to be proven wrong

So for example BPA huh......Elite Prospects had Kemell Ohgren Lambert Odelius and Pickering as BPA over JL.

I'm not gonna go on and on here because i like the upside but we have essentially just drafted wingers for 4yrs and our weaknesses are speed defense and some skilled size that can win battles. and have nothing in the pipeline at C with Miller about to be moved and Horvat turning 27

i'm not thrilled about it.

 

[RutherPlan]

Already said he's going back to Sweden next year. It's the following year this might be a consideration (the AHL).

He's actually a good 5-10 lbs heavier then EP was and while his stride isn't perfect he's by no means slow.

I would much rather have a guy with 1st line superstar potential then some guy who caps out at a 3rd line player who we selected cus he's big or fits an organizational need.

He might say that he's going back to Sweden next year, but Allvin and co. can convince him to play in Abbotsford if they try.

 

[beachcomber]

My questions with Lekkerimaki's hockey sense have less to do with playmaking ability and more with just processing the game. The EP rinkside scouting reports aren't flattering.

David St. Louis: "The doubts about Lekkerimäki's hockey sense are back. He rarely makes the best play unless it is evident and that's problematic. Thinking on the fly, IDing on the fly, and recognizing where his advantages are...These elements are not strengths of his game."

JD Burke: "You watch a game like this one, though, and the questions about his overall sense and ability to read the game cast a shadow over the rest of his game that his tools can’t escape. He missed at least two or three obvious breakout reads as a passer in this contest that resulted in his team defending far longer than they should’ve had to in either instance."

Etc ... Just not optimistic, but I guess we'll see.

JD Burke? Lol, what the hell would he know about assessing a hockey player?

 

[Scorvat]

Is it really that hard to understand?

The Canucks valued Lekkerimaki more because even with a positional surplus they rated him higher then other players. That's what BPA means. If a player is better in your internal rankings then you select the player even if the depth charts are full at that position. It shouldn't be an echo chamber though. Most of your internal rankings should be based on external sources and any time it deviates you should have an explanation that doesn't include posistional needs or surpluses. The only issue is when there is a major faller, but I assume NHL teams know why somebody is falling on draft day

The Canucks might have been the team that ranked him 4th.

 

[Fatass]

Then you dont understand what people mean when they say it.



Marner thinks the game at an elite level and is a fantastic passer.

So does this kid. U18 WC he had 10 assists in 6 games. He was on the ice defending the lead and scored the empty net goal to seal the Gold. This after suffering through Mono.

He might say that he's going back to Sweden next year, but Allvin and co. can convince him to play in Abbotsford if they try.

Or with the Vancouver Giants.

 

[Luck 6]

This guy was pegged around 8 in most mock drafts, so it’s nice to get him at 15. He wasn’t a player I did a lot of research on prior to the draft, but based on what I see the guys primary talent is scoring goals, and he seems to have been extremely successful at that at every level.

To those saying it isn’t an organizational need, it may be just that in a couple of years when he’s ready for the NHL. Maybe we are able to trade Garland for assets when this guy is ready to make it, for example. Top 6 forward on ELC should always be an organizational need if you ask me.

 

[Tomatoes11]

Need, Need, Need... have we learned nothing from 2016?

In theory, scouts should always pick the best player, regardless of position. Mgmt is supposed to address needs via signings and trades (moving areas of surplus to address deficits). I don't see a reason to deviate from that.

In theory this is right. But in practice it’s far from it.

The issues are the following.

-Certain positions like C and RHD seem to be available only through the draft
-Take the oilers for example, they go bpa and by the time they move a hall or eberle the best they can get back is a Larsson or spooner. Huge value deficit going bpa and then trading for needs. Unless you trade the bpa right away like at the draft but that would just be the same as trading down basically.
- we are the fricking Canucks. We can’t even trade Boeser, Horvat, or miller for deficits. We just seem to overpay to keep our surplus at all costs. So if we go this route we will never address deficits. Ever.

I think the best way to do it is go BPA if they are in another tier entirely. Sure take the winger then.

If they are close enough, same tier give or take a spot or 5, Go C and RHD.

Usually a balance is always the best approach and stay flexible or liquid. This is where your instincts would factor in.

 

[TryamkinPleaseReturn]

MS, you say Firkus is a similar quality prospect for you (I also like Firkus a lot), and you would have traded back in the draft to pick him up. If there were no reasonable offers to trade back, would you have drafted Firkus at 15?

 

[Quinning]

So does this kid. U18 WC he had 10 assists in 6 games. He was on the ice defending the lead and scored the empty net goal to seal the Gold. This after suffering through Mono.


Or with the Vancouver Giants.

This kid would absolutely torch the Dub lol