From a pure numbers perspective, playing up till game 55 or so with a PPG center WAS a big deal. Bigger than the 16 PPP he got on an ineffective powerplay. He had 37 ES points last year, which is replacement level relative to his minutes and linemates but it's a large chunk of his totals regardless.
His ES production wasn't replacement level last season relative to his minutes and linemates. He played predominantly 2nd/3rd line minutes last year on Montreal's second or third best line. His ES P/60 comparables included Williams, RNH, Brown, Kadri, Ferland, Kotkaniemi, Miller, etc. His production might go down with fewer minutes at ES, but if Montreal just has below average PP instead of an atrocious on, his production should be pretty similar. And that's if Kotkaniemi plateaus.
The second point is exactly what I'm referring to. Drouin rode his way to a 50pt season largely off the back of Domi's insane streak in the first half. Somehow he's going to have the same ES numbers as last year with 3rd line minutes and linemates? Sorry I don't buy it mate.
Domi got lucky too (and benefited from Shaw).
No argument that Drouin sucks at ES. But by that virtue, his relative production isn't that hard to replicate, Domi or no.
The point is that his ES numbers were ok. Not great, but not bad. And they way Julien spreads minutes, its hard to think he'll be that much worse off in the 3rd line instead of the 2nd.
Unless the PP improves by alot, expect a dip in his season totals. A spot which he very well might not even hold a year from now, should Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Caufield come knocking.
Of those three, only Suzuki seems like he'd take Drouin's role on the PP. And even that is not a given.
