Value of: John Tavares, is there a Market?

[Captain Mountain]

You cannot pretend that Tavares would waive his NMC when asking if there is a market for Tavares. Its the major basis for determining the market. So there is no market for Tavares because Tavares doesn't want there to be a market for Tavares.

That said, a lot of these takes of his relative value are frankly absurd. Even if his game has been slipping and he's a big money player, he is still high caliber center with manageable term and not a ton of real money on his contract.

 

[AcerComputer]

To Vancouver: Tavares (15% retained), Robertson, 2023 3rd

To Toronto: OEL, Palmu, 2025 5th

Next year roll this assuming Miller is traded:

Podkolzin Pettersson Brock Boeser
Tavares Horvat Garland
Pearson Lammikko Hoglander
HighMore Dickinson Lockwood

Leafs give up a top prospect while retaining salary on Tavares, who only has 3 years left, and is still a PPG player.... for someone VAN regrets trading for in OEL, who has 5 years left at $7.26M. If this was a real trade, VAN would be making a significant add to unload that brutal contract, no one will trade for OEL unless a 5 year boat anchor was going back the other way, yet alone a #1/b centre.

You cannot pretend that Tavares would waive his NMC when asking if there is a market for Tavares. Its the major basis for determining the market. So there is no market for Tavares because Tavares doesn't want there to be a market for Tavares.

That said, a lot of these takes of his relative value are frankly absurd. Even if his game has been slipping and he's a big money player, he is still high caliber center with manageable term and not a ton of real money on his contract.

I totally agree. He signed here as a UFA for a reason, and his contract is buyout proof, along with the fact he has a NMC. We're stuck with him.

 

[HighPlainsDrifter]

If he waived. Carlson/Eller for Tavares. Who says no?

 

[Guffman]

That said, a lot of these takes of his relative value are frankly absurd. Even if his game has been slipping and he's a big money player, he is still high caliber center with manageable term and not a ton of real money on his contract.

What’s absurd is how you conveniently neglect to mention his very high salary cap number. THAT is the major reason why his trade value is negligible.

 

[Captain Mountain]

What’s absurd is how you conveniently neglect to mention his very high salary cap number. THAT is the major reason why his trade value is negligible.

If Tavares was free agent, teams would offer him 3 year deals at the cap hit he's making. Probably without the NMC, but his contract is justified. He's still a ppg play driving center. Would he return a lot in a trade? Probably not. Would Toronto need to retain or take on an actually bad contract? No.

But again, he's got a NMC and chose to be in Toronto. He's got no market on that basis.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The problem as I see it with a lot of these proposals is that Tavares has a NM clause. So he’s only going to waive to go to a contender as he’s never won anything and wants a shot at a Cup. That knocks the list of teams down to a handful. Every contender likely spends close to the cap so the $11 million cap hit is the critical number. Maybe if Toronto can retain on his cap hit to bring it down to $7.5 million there’s a deal or maybe if they take back another overpaid cap hit or include other assets or some combination of the above 3 options.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

We are stuck with John unless Boston comes knocking, I think. He seemed to be very interested in joining them, had the money been equal.

Problem for Boston is 1) how much cap will Toronto be willing to eat 2) can John even play C at a high level now.

I strongly believe he should have been moved to the wing this year, and I would be shocked if he plays next season as a full time C.

 

[Guffman]

If Tavares was free agent, teams would offer him 3 year deals at the cap hit he's making. Probably without the NMC, but his contract is justified. He's still a ppg play driving center. Would he return a lot in a trade? Probably not. Would Toronto need to retain or take on an actually bad contract? No.

But again, he's got a NMC and chose to be in Toronto. He's got no market on that basis.

You think Tavares fair market value as a hypothetical free agent would be a 3 year, 33M contract? Laughing My Fat Arse Off!!

Just delusional.

 

[John Mandalorian]

The problem as I see it with a lot of these proposals is that Tavares has a NM clause. So he’s only going to waive to go to a contender as he’s never won anything and wants a shot at a Cup. That knocks the list of teams down to a handful. Every contender likely spends close to the cap so the $11 million cap hit is the critical number. Maybe if Toronto can retain on his cap hit to bring it down to $7.5 million there’s a deal or maybe if they take back another overpaid cap hit or include other assets.

Indeed the premise is problematic. Even if he's open to being traded, you'd expect restrictions such as geography or contender status. If it's to a contender, retention would likely be required.

 

[SyZyGY]

Leafs shouldn't move him as they'll need him to be their 1st line C in two years

 

[Debrincat93]

no one wants that contract.
horrible signing then and still is now.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

What’s absurd is how you conveniently neglect to mention his very high salary cap number. THAT is the major reason why his trade value is negligible.

Agreed. On the open market he gets probably $8 to $8.5 million tops on a 3 year deal. No one is paying $11 million for a player aged 32 who will be 35 when the contract ends.

 

[John Mandalorian]

We are stuck with John unless Boston comes knocking, I think. He seemed to be very interested in joining them, had the money been equal.

Problem for Boston is 1) how much cap will Toronto be willing to eat 2) can John even play C at a high level now.

I strongly believe he should have been moved to the wing this year, and I would be shocked if he plays next season as a full time C.

Who plays 2C?

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Who plays 2C?

Probably Kerfoot Team's got issues, yo.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Probably Kerfoot Team's got issues, yo.

You're paying 11 million to a wing so you can end up with Kerfoot as 2C? Maybe it helps Tavares be more effective but does it really help Toronto?

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

You're paying 11 million to a wing so you can end up with Kerfoot as 2C? Maybe it helps Tavares be more effective but does it really help Toronto?

If it means the line can actually defend, then yes. Tavares line got buried all season, he's just too slow to anchor the middle of the ice.

For the record, I am not paying anyone, just a hopeful observer who thought the team wasn't ready to a Tavares level signing.

 

[BondraTime]

There is zero market, because the list of teams that would:
A. Want him at 11 million for 3 more years
B. Have the available Cap for him
C. Be able to get Tavares to waive to leave Toronto

Are almost nonexistent. Any team looking to take him as a dump will get veto’d by Tavares.

Toronto are stuck with him

 

[Crazy8oooo]

that ppg. Anchor! Lmfao!

Although he’s still a good player, he technically hasn’t been a ppg player for his last 3 seasons. 18/19 is the last time he was.

And while he’s still good, that contract probably does make him an anchor. He’s not 11 million dollars good.

 

[seanlinden]

Without retention, there absolutely is a market for John Tavares. He's still a premier player, a veteran leader, who will be owed $17m over the next 3 seasons once his bonus is paid on July 1.

That being said, the chances of him waiving to go to a team in the market for him are 0, IMO.

He, presumably, wants to win. Teams like Detroit, Buffalo, Anaheim, Columbus, Montreal, New Jersey, Seattle would probably all like to add a player like him (even at full cap hit) to take some pressure off a young core. He's not going to want to go to a situation like that though.

Now, if Tavares was offered a trade to say, Tampa, Colorado, or Pittsburgh, where he was being salary retained down to around $7-8m, then I'm sure he might consider it... that doesn't exactly help the Leafs though.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I don’t disagree with that. But of those 47, how many have been a ppg player the last 4 years? How about the last 13 years? That’s why he’s paid what he’s paid.

Of course I wish he was paid less. But star players get paid. That’s what happens. We whine about Tavares’ contract but don’t recognize that the leafs also have steals in Bunting and Kampf. It all evens out as long as the leafs are able to maintain that. Which thus far they have.

No, he's getting paid what he's paid because Dubas is an idiot.

"hE sCoReD pPg"

Cool story, scoring at 1 PPG is not close to being an $11m forward. $11m forwards should baseline at 100 pts a season. He only makes $1.5m less than McDavid

 

[Guffman]

Without retention, there absolutely is a market for John Tavares. He's still a premier player, a veteran leader, who will be owed $17m over the next 3 seasons once his bonus is paid on July 1.

That being said, the chances of him waiving to go to a team in the market for him are 0, IMO.

He, presumably, wants to win. Teams like Detroit, Buffalo, Anaheim, Columbus, Montreal, New Jersey, Seattle would probably all like to add a player like him (even at full cap hit) to take some pressure off a young core. He's not going to want to go to a situation like that though.

Now, if Tavares was offered a trade to say, Tampa, Colorado, or Pittsburgh, where he was being salary retained down to around $7-8m, then I'm sure he might consider it... that doesn't exactly help the Leafs though.

At $11M AAV but a cash outlay of $17M over three years (if dealt after next season’s signing bonus), yeah, I guess a non-cap budget team would be interested in Tavares so arguably, there is a market for him.

A young, up-and-coming team with cheap AAV players could trade for Tavares. Ottawa? Detroit? New Jersey?

Now, would Tavares waive? Honestly, maybe. If management says that the team is not working as is and they need to move out one of the big contracts, would Tavares stand in the way of this especially if he could be a big player for the acquiring team?

 

[John Mandalorian]

At $11M AAV but a cash outlay of $17M over three years (if dealt after next season’s signing bonus), yeah, I guess a non-cap budget team would be interested in Tavares so arguably, there is a market for him.

A young, up-and-coming team with cheap AAV players could trade for Tavares. Ottawa? Detroit? New Jersey?

Now, would Tavares waive? Honestly, maybe. If management says that the team is not working as is and they need to move out one of the big contracts, would Tavares stand in the way of this especially if he could be a big player for the acquiring team?

Are you angling at Boston with this?

 

[boredmale]

Three more years at $11M AAV… no market for that bloated contract.

You would have to eat at least $4M AAV to get it moving. Then, when you factor what you’re going to pay a replacement 2C, you’re not really saving anything.

I think you’re just stuck with this anchor.

If I am correct his contract was front loaded so a team who looks at salary before cap might be interested, but in that case Tavares probably wouldn't be so it's a moot point. lol

Now that being said maybe their is a chance you can use a team like that in a 3 way deal, where they eat some of his salary which can do a significant decrease to his caphit

 

[Junohockeyfan]

At $11M AAV but a cash outlay of $17M over three years (if dealt after next season’s signing bonus), yeah, I guess a non-cap budget team would be interested in Tavares so arguably, there is a market for him.

A young, up-and-coming team with cheap AAV players could trade for Tavares. Ottawa? Detroit? New Jersey?

Now, would Tavares waive? Honestly, maybe. If management says that the team is not working as is and they need to move out one of the big contracts, would Tavares stand in the way of this especially if he could be a big player for the acquiring team?

Tavares would not waive to a bottom feeder. He wants to win a cup. Dubas would not ask to waive. Not a chance…

 

[Guffman]

Are you angling at Boston with this?

Nah, Boston doesn’t have the cap.