Value of: John Gibson for PIT 2023 1st and Jeff Carter

[StephenPeat]

Pittsburgh should go after him or Saros.

I’m pretty sure the Pens don’t have the available, necessary trade capital for either, especially Saros.

 

[biturbo19]

Our GM, at a recent season ticket holder event came out and said he sat down with Gibson and told him he wouldn't be moved, he has no interest in moving Gibson and cited his history with the Lightning and struggling to find a #1 goalie for years until they developed Vasilevsky as his reason for not wanting to open that hole up on this team. So most of us don't believe a trade will happen at all, and are perfectly ok with that

While i don't fully agree with this approach, given Gibson's age and the number of years left before Anaheim are likely to really turn it around...I do understand what he's getting at.


Essentially, if you're gonna deal Gibson...it'd have to be for something that's worth risking that demoralizing state where your young, developing team and defence corps, don't even have reliable backstopping behind them. So they don't trust the netminder, they cheat, they play scared, they learn bad habits and just overall end up really demoralized and demotivated when pucks keep ending up in the back of their net even when they haven't really made a big mistake.

So the trade value for Gibson has to offset that. Which is probably a staggeringly high pricetag compared to what he's actually really "worth" to other teams.



So unless Gibson changes his tune and decides that he doesn't want to be there anymore...it's hard to see him traded. There's just too much of a gulf in his value to ANA vs his value to the rest of the league at large.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I mean maybe that's just because Anaheim fans comically overrate Gibson and 99% of other fans don't want him.

One fan asking for Gibson doesn't mean that all fans of that team want him.

Idk the only reason we almost didn’t end up last place was gibson. I think he’d be really good on a better coached team/ better roster.

We got rid of Eakins, and should take steps forward this season…. I’d rather hold on to him and see him with new system/better roster.

Hate on him if you want but you rarely see duck fans trying to move him, no duck fans blame gibson for his stats and understand Eakins isn’t a nhl coach and the defense wasn’t nhl defense…. It’s always other fans hoping they can get a goalie they think still has something that they think they can get for nothing.

While i don't fully agree with this approach, given Gibson's age and the number of years left before Anaheim are likely to really turn it around...I do understand what he's getting at.


Essentially, if you're gonna deal Gibson...it'd have to be for something that's worth risking that demoralizing state where your young, developing team and defence corps, don't even have reliable backstopping behind them. So they don't trust the netminder, they cheat, they play scared, they learn bad habits and just overall end up really demoralized and demotivated when pucks keep ending up in the back of their net even when they haven't really made a big mistake.

So the trade value for Gibson has to offset that. Which is probably a staggeringly high pricetag compared to what he's actually really "worth" to other teams.



So unless Gibson changes his tune and decides that he doesn't want to be there anymore...it's hard to see him traded. There's just too much of a gulf in his value to ANA vs his value to the rest of the league at large.

Pretty much, if we trade gibson we prob lose in terms of value at this point.

I’m fine keeping gibson unless we can get a 1st back, and letting dostal learn behind him

 

[TS Quint]

Yo, brosephs I looked at stats and he's straight up dog shit, bro.

What ?

Did I look at the team he plays for ?

Nah, bro, just the stats that back up my point, bro.

You'd be lucky to get Carter for him, bro.

Then treat it as apples to apples. How does he do Vs his back ups? Hes about as good as Stolarz and Dostal. But you don’t have the pleasure of paying $6.4m for the next (oh my god) 4 years for a guy who hasn’t been good for the last 4 seasons.

 

[Yemeth]

Then treat it as apples to apples. How does he do Vs his back ups? Hes about as good as Stolarz and Dostal. But you don’t have the pleasure of paying $6.4m for the next (oh my god) 4 years for a guy who hasn’t been good for the last 4 seasons.

Almost about as good as Stolarz and Dostal? Hasn't been good for 4 seasons? Same as with several ex-players in Anaheim, underrated because of the average/below average Anaheim roster in the last few years. Under other circumstances their quality shines (e.g. Hampus Lindholm). I think Gibson best years are behind him, but in my opinion he is easily a NHL starter goaltender, not some backup who plays starting goaltender because of the rebuild.

As much as I like Stolarz and have very high hopes for Dostal, Gibson is currently much better than both of them. Even if you are only "stat watching", things like number of played games, quality of opposition etc. should be something you should take into account.

His save percentage of this year is something to behold when you look at what "defense" was played in front of him.

A couple of years ago the Ducks had some problems with power plays, Teemu coined the term "power kill", we should find some new word that describes our defense this year.

"Suicidal goalie thoughts"?
"How about a new shot on goal record"?

Is all too long and not catchy enough, maybe someone else has some better ideas.

 

[SEALBound]

Not to get too controversial here, but looking at Gibson's recent stats, what possible value do Ducks fans thinks he really has at the moment?

Performance plus contract make this is a high-risk acquisition for any team. The only thing the other team gets to do is "hope".

You HOPE it's that the Ducks team in front of him is bad, you HOPE he picks it up with the better team in front of him, and you HOPE he's worth the assets you pay.

I don't see a scenario for the Ducks where they don't take back a major contract in the deal. From the Penguins, Carter (if he waives) or Granlund at the absolute least.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk the only reason we almost didn’t end up last place was gibson. I think he’d be really good on a better coached team/ better roster.

We got rid of Eakins, and should take steps forward this season…. I’d rather hold on to him and see him with new system/better roster.

Hate on him if you want but you rarely see duck fans trying to move him, no duck fans blame gibson for his stats and understand Eakins isn’t a nhl coach and the defense wasn’t nhl defense…. It’s always other fans hoping they can get a goalie they think still has something that they think they can get for nothing.


Pretty much, if we trade gibson we prob lose in terms of value at this point.

I’m fine keeping gibson unless we can get a 1st back, and letting dostal learn behind him

I mean, what fans want is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that Gibson hasn’t had a .905 save% since before COVID and has consistently ranked in the negatives among goalie analytics.

Ducks fans can say that a 1st and Carter is “bad” for Gibson all they want, but the reality is that Gibson won’t be traded for nearly that kind of return if he was actually traded. He’s either not getting traded because the Ducks overvalue him or he gets traded for a fraction of what Ducks fans on here think he’ll go for.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I mean, what fans want is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that Gibson hasn’t had a .905 save% since before COVID and has consistently ranked in the negatives among goalie analytics.

Ducks fans can say that a 1st and Carter is “bad” for Gibson all they want, but the reality is that Gibson won’t be traded for nearly that kind of return if he was actually traded. He’s either not getting traded because the Ducks overvalue him or he gets traded for a fraction of what Ducks fans on here think he’ll go for.

And I think most duck fans are in the not being traded wagon… cause he’s worth more to us than trade value.

No one that watches anahiem consistently thinks gibson is the issue

 

[DavidBL]

Not to get too controversial here, but looking at Gibson's recent stats, what possible value do Ducks fans thinks he really has at the moment?

Performance plus contract make this is a high-risk acquisition for any team. The only thing the other team gets to do is "hope".

You HOPE it's that the Ducks team in front of him is bad, you HOPE he picks it up with the better team in front of him, and you HOPE he's worth the assets you pay.

I don't see a scenario for the Ducks where they don't take back a major contract in the deal. From the Penguins, Carter (if he waives) or Granlund at the absolute least.

Pretty sure Ducks fans know the risks but we're not the ones trying to trade him either. Ducks fans firmly believe that those numbers are more of a reflection if the team in front of him than a repression of him as a goalie. Pretty sure the same phenomena happened in Edm when Eakins was there too.

 

[Big Muddy]

and just like that, the thread is full of other teams fans saying Gibson sucks, he's a cap dump, ducks would have to pay to get rid of him. yet no ducks fan is wanting to move him at all lol

That's what the majority of trade proposal threads are like in here unless its for a bonafide star player.

 

[Boondock]

Nashville owes us for Granlund. Let's start wishing for Saros since he's better anyway.

Or Hellebuyck.

Honest question - Why would the Jets be interested in moving Hellebuyck? And if for some reason the decision is to move on from Hellebuyck it would be for a rebuild and what futures do the Pens have that would land them a perennial Vezina candidate? I feel that Saros is in the same boat. If the Pens want to maximize their few remaining years with Crosby/Letang/Malkin - I think both Saros and Hellebuyck would cost a premium. Gibson might not be the answer either, just wondering why Saros and Hellebuyck would be considered available and what you think would be the ask for players like them.

 

[North Cole]

Almost about as good as Stolarz and Dostal? Hasn't been good for 4 seasons? Same as with several ex-players in Anaheim, underrated because of the average/below average Anaheim roster in the last few years. Under other circumstances their quality shines (e.g. Hampus Lindholm). I think Gibson best years are behind him, but in my opinion he is easily a NHL starter goaltender, not some backup who plays starting goaltender because of the rebuild.

As much as I like Stolarz and have very high hopes for Dostal, Gibson is currently much better than both of them. Even if you are only "stat watching", things like number of played games, quality of opposition etc. should be something you should take into account.

His save percentage of this year is something to behold when you look at what "defense" was played in front of him.

A couple of years ago the Ducks had some problems with power plays, Teemu coined the term "power kill", we should find some new word that describes our defense this year.

"Suicidal goalie thoughts"?
"How about a new shot on goal record"?

Is all too long and not catchy enough, maybe someone else has some better ideas.

It's almost like... birds of a feather, do not defend together.

 

[MMC]

Not to get too controversial here, but looking at Gibson's recent stats, what possible value do Ducks fans thinks he really has at the moment?

Performance plus contract make this is a high-risk acquisition for any team. The only thing the other team gets to do is "hope".

You HOPE it's that the Ducks team in front of him is bad, you HOPE he picks it up with the better team in front of him, and you HOPE he's worth the assets you pay.

I don't see a scenario for the Ducks where they don't take back a major contract in the deal. From the Penguins, Carter (if he waives) or Granlund at the absolute least.

Your mistake is equating Ducks fans saying "we don't want to trade Gibson for a cap dump" to "we expect to trade Gibson for value". We are all aware that a Gibson trade would be a tough thing to make happen in this environment given his cap hit relative to production, which is why you don't see us creating threads shopping him.

 

[lwvs84]

Then treat it as apples to apples. How does he do Vs his back ups? Hes about as good as Stolarz and Dostal. But you don’t have the pleasure of paying $6.4m for the next (oh my god) 4 years for a guy who hasn’t been good for the last 4 seasons.

Backup goalies have done well under Eakins, no starter ever has. This includes Dubnyk who went on to have several great seasons. Gibson is the only starter to put up over .900 under Eakins. A lot of people that watch the stats of the goalies make this argument. Think of it like working 70 hour work weeks. As the week/month/year goes on, your work suffers due to the increased workload and lack of rest. The backups get a start here or there, it's like getting one 14 hour day periodically as opposed to constantly getting them. Gibson has usually started the seasons strong, he was even an all-star... last year? The problem is, having all of these shots against constantly and quality shots against too wears him out.

The Ducks will NOT pay to get rid of him, I understand why his value is low, but Anaheim is better off just holding on to him instead of paying to get rid of him or taking on a bad contract. If the defense just improves to being below average rather than historically bad, that will bump up his numbers significantly. If the defense improves next year but his numbers don't, then I think there will be reason to be concerned (as a Ducks fan), but seeing how other goalies improved away from Eakins (even when going to other bad teams), I'd risk keeping Gibby and seeing what he can do.

 

[66-30-33]

I’m pretty sure the Pens don’t have the available, necessary trade capital for either, especially Saros.

Huh? Gibson is not even worth the 14th overall.

 

[Extra Texture]

No, please no.

Forget about moving an asset to get rid of Carter. Any new GM worth his salt, that isnt just a yes man for Sullivan, should just bury him. Have him sat in the press box for a year and eat the money. That, or strong arm him into an "injury". It's one more year. We ate 2M this year alone for JJ's buyout.

As far as giving up moar futures for Gibson: not in a summer where Korpisalo, Raanta, Freddy Andersen, Varlamov, Talbot, Brossiot or Adin Hill are are all potentially available. I'd rather hope one of those guys lands our way. And not when the Pens have MANY roster issues to fix. We're going to need that first and start getting creative to improve a lot of other areas.

Landing Gibson at this stage in the Pens competitive cycle puts Gibson back on a lottery team in no time. From the romantic's perspective, it would be the saddest thing in the world to see him finally switch teams and just end up getting shelled again every night for the rest of his career.

 

[Extra Texture]

Honest question - Why would the Jets be interested in moving Hellebuyck? And if for some reason the decision is to move on from Hellebuyck it would be for a rebuild and what futures do the Pens have that would land them a perennial Vezina candidate? I feel that Saros is in the same boat. If the Pens want to maximize their few remaining years with Crosby/Letang/Malkin - I think both Saros and Hellebuyck would cost a premium. Gibson might not be the answer either, just wondering why Saros and Hellebuyck would be considered available and what you think would be the ask for players like them.

But once word is out there that either of those two players are available, I'm sure a real contender with a much fuller cupboard/more draft capital tries to swoop in and nab them ahead of the Pens, who cannot compete when it comes to giving up assets anymore.

Helle and Saros are two players with whom any budding contenders could lock down their net for years. And would probably pay accordingly.

 

[Emerald Duck]

At the end of the day the Ducks will happily keep their overpriced #1 goalie and continue to develop his replacement rather than take back someone's cap dump.

Pittsburgh will keep looking for another #1 goalie to acquire with magic beans and a bag of used pucks and sticks.

 

[Daz28]

What do all the goaltenders ranked 1-16 in SV% have in common, excluding Saros? bUt HiS StAtZ

 

[biturbo19]

Pretty sure Ducks fans know the risks but we're not the ones trying to trade him either. Ducks fans firmly believe that those numbers are more of a reflection if the team in front of him than a repression of him as a goalie. Pretty sure the same phenomena happened in Edm when Eakins was there too.

There are all sorts of weird things that swirl around Gibson these days in terms of fan-perceived "value". He's a really polarizing netminder.


It's funny to me that a lot of the most vocal "anti-Gibson" haters who believe he's regressed to a replacement level or below netminder, also typically seem to be among the "goalies are voodoo" crowd. The "missing piece" to make goaltending make more sense and look like less of a random scatterplot is staring them right in the face with other fans endlessly squawking about "context" and "team performance" in front of them. But they're not interested. Gibson is washed.

Whereas there's also a clear contingent of fans who do still recognize that contextual factor and value Gibson in trade proposals whenever they go out hunting for a quality starting goaltender. Yet still generally seem inclined to try to "lowball" the Ducks, belying the value that obviously underpins their interest in Gibson in the first place.



All of this creates some weird dissonance around his "value". When the reality is...no matter what, his "value" to the Ducks in providing stable reliable goaltending to backstop a young developing team is probably far in excess of what he'd even actually be worth to a contending team. He probably isn't an Elite goaltender anymore. But the value of a really good solid starter who used to be elite is still really high for a young team like the Ducks.

Teams always talk about "culture carriers" and "veteran mentors and leadership" with young rebuilding teams. That's precisely where Gibson's value gets inflated for the Ducks. That element where it's hard to put a price on stability and a calming presence in net for young players who are going to make big mistakes.

 

[StephenPeat]

Huh? Gibson is not even worth the 14th overall.

You missed the critical context. Is the 14th overall pick available? For a team in the Pens position it shouldn’t be. If it’s not, I don’t see a single tradable asset the Pens have that would entice the Ducks to trade Gibson.

 

[66-30-33]

You missed the critical context. Is the 14th overall pick available? For a team in the Pens position it shouldn’t be. If it’s not, I don’t see a single tradable asset the Pens have that would entice the Ducks to trade Gibson.

I’d trade it if I was the GM, pick won’t help us until after Crosby is retired.

 

[cheesymc]

I’d trade it if I was the GM, pick won’t help us until after Crosby is retired.

That would make sense to give your hall of famer some shot at winning unless they want him to retire earlier.

 

[Rafafouille]

I sure would hope Penguins GM would say no. Maybe they think about it if Pittsburgh gets the first instead of Anaheim but even then, 4 more years at 6.4m for a goalie that's barely NHL caliber is tough to swallow. Some people here still seem to think it's 2019. John Gibson sucks.

 

[dracom]

whoops wrong thread lol