Player Discussion Joel Eriksson Ek: The 2nd Act

[Dr Jan Itor]

What conclusion have you come to now after that post?

Which post, my original one?

 

[AKL]

Which post, my original one?

Yeah, after doing the deep dive and seeing what you posted for yourself, I'm genuinely curious if your stance has changed at all.

Whether you still think we should move Dumba for Danault, whether you think Eriksson Ek can be that level of player. Any of it.

For the record, especially now with Staal gone, I could be on board with a trade for Danault depending on the value. But I wouldn't move Dumba for him.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, after doing the deep dive and seeing what you posted for yourself, I'm genuinely curious if your stance has changed at all.

Whether you still think we should move Dumba for Danault, whether you think Eriksson Ek can be that level of player. Any of it.

For the record, especially now with Staal gone, I could be on board with a trade for Danault depending on the value. But I wouldn't move Dumba for him.

Haven't fully formed an opinion yet, but I think it could possibly be a legit path to my zig/zag theory with the center position. I never bought, and still don't, the idea that Danault would've been a worse player with us than with Montreal, because quite frankly I thought that you were overrating Tatar quite a bit.

Just thinking of it like a math equation, starting at ~36 points. I mean, 5 for playing with better offensive players + 5 for playing ~2 minutes more at ES per game + 5 for getting 1 minute per game on the PP; none of that seems too unreasonable, and that's not really counting the basic internal improvement as a player.

If we still had Staal, or if we had a hot-shot center prospect on the cusp, it might. Now that there are two top 6 center spots open immediately, I think that I'm still on the Danault train (or any center of that type of ilk, i.e. Cirelli).

 

[Bazeek]

Haven't fully formed an opinion yet, but I think it could possibly be a legit path to my zig/zag theory with the center position. I never bought, and still don't, the idea that Danault would've been a worse player with us than with Montreal, because quite frankly I thought that you were overrating Tatar quite a bit.

Just thinking of it like a math equation, starting at ~36 points. I mean, 5 for playing with better offensive players + 5 for playing ~2 minutes more at ES per game + 5 for getting 1 minute per game on the PP; none of that seems too unreasonable, and that's not really counting the basic internal improvement as a player.

If we still had Staal, or if we had a hot-shot center prospect on the cusp, it might. Now that there are two top 6 center spots open immediately, I think that I'm still on the Danault train (or any center of that type of ilk, i.e. Cirelli).

Yeah, I think even if we get lucky and Ek's production approaches Danault's, I'd love to have two of those guys.

 

[AKL]

Yeah, I think even if we get lucky and Ek's production approaches Danault's, I'd love to have two of those guys.

At this point, I don't think trading for Danault could hurt if he's our best option, but if you assume their value is equal right now, we'd be selling low on Dumba and buying high on Danault, and then giving him a UFA contract. There would have to be a reasonable extension in place and additional value coming back for me to want to do it.

Montreal needs wingers with size, add on to Greenway as the centerpiece before you move Dumba for him.

 

[Bazeek]

At this point, I don't think trading for Danault could hurt if he's our best option, but if you assume their value is equal right now, we'd be selling low on Dumba and buying high on Danault, and then giving him a UFA contract. There would have to be a reasonable extension in place and additional value coming back for me to want to do it.

Montreal needs wingers with size, add on to Greenway as the centerpiece before you move Dumba for him.

I'm not necessarily gunning for a Dumba/Danault deal specifically. If we take a step back from the trade board talk we're talking about a guy that's 1 year from UFA and doesn't seem enamored with the role he'd be signing up for in Montreal. I like him a lot as a target, but a player in that situation doesn't usually cost someone like Dumba.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Danault doesn't make sense either age wise.

As much as I like Ek, and wanted him to get more time, this seems like a terrible way to do it.

 

[Bazeek]

Danault doesn't make sense either age wise.

As much as I like Ek, and wanted him to get more time, this seems like a terrible way to do it.

27 doesn't make sense age-wise?

 

[thestonedkoala]

27 doesn't make sense age-wise?

I'm thinking of a center in their early 20s. Fiala is only 24, Ek , Kaprizov, Kunin are in their early 20s. Then you have guys like Boldy that's 19 and our rookie this year and next year.

By the time this team is ready to compete Danault is going to be in his 30s.

 

[Bazeek]

I'm thinking of a center in their early 20s. Fiala is only 24, Ek , Kaprizov, Kunin are in their early 20s. Then you have guys like Boldy that's 19 and our rookie this year and next year.

By the time this team is ready to compete Danault is going to be in his 30s.

Yeah, I disagree. Having a spread of ages across the roster is usually a plus, and we don't have much in that 25-30 range at forward. And I don't think we're going to spin our wheels for 3 years.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Yeah, I disagree. Having a spread of ages across the roster is usually a plus, and we don't have much in that 25-30 range at forward. And I don't think we're going to spin our wheels for 3 years.

That's fine; I'm just not enamored with Danault, especially on a team that is trying to find a center solution.

 

[2Pair]

So with Staal gone, and external center options beaten to death, I decided to take a medium-sized dive into Eriksson Ek's numbers to see if there might be anything more there.

2017-18 season
20/21 years old
75 games
6 ES goals (7 per 82)
16 ES points (17 per 82)
12:45 total TOI/game
11:21 ES TOI/game
0:05 PP TOI/game
4.24% shooting %
Winnik and Foligno most common linemates

2018-19 season
21/22 years old
58 games
7 ES goals (10 per 82)
14 ES points (20 per 82)
13:30 total TOI/game
11:39 ES TOI/game
0:06 PP TOI/game
6.54% shooting %
Greenway, Foligno and Kunin most common linemates

2019-20 season
22/23 years old
62 games
7 goals (9 per 82)
27 points (36 per 82)
15:43 total TOI/game
12:49 ES TOI/game
0:10 PP TOI/game
7.61% shooting %
Greenway, Kunin and Foligno most common linemates

Marginal improvement from 2017-18 to 2019 in basically everything. Larger improvement from 2018-19 to 2019-20 with fairly sizeable jumps in every thing (production, ice time, linemates).

What if Eriksson Ek got 15 minutes ES TOI/game + 1 minute PP TOI/game + Fiala/Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Boldy as most common linemates? Where would you honestly think that 9 goals per 82 and 36 points per 82 would go? We're also talking about 24-28 years old vs. 22/23.

Your ice-times are off. Ek played closer to 14 minutes per at even strength.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Your ice-times are off. Ek played closer to 14 minutes per at even strength.

Those are supposed to say 5v5. My bad.

 

[BagHead]

So with Staal gone, and external center options beaten to death, I decided to take a medium-sized dive into Eriksson Ek's numbers to see if there might be anything more there.

2017-18 season
20/21 years old
75 games
6 ES goals (7 per 82)
16 ES points (17 per 82)
12:45 total TOI/game
11:21 5v5 TOI/game
0:05 PP TOI/game
4.24% shooting %
Winnik and Foligno most common linemates

2018-19 season
21/22 years old
58 games
7 ES goals (10 per 82)
14 ES points (20 per 82)
13:30 total TOI/game
11:39 5v5 TOI/game
0:06 PP TOI/game
6.54% shooting %
Greenway, Foligno and Kunin most common linemates

2019-20 season
22/23 years old
62 games
7 goals (9 per 82)
27 points (36 per 82)
15:43 total TOI/game
12:49 5v5 TOI/game
0:10 PP TOI/game
7.61% shooting %
Greenway, Kunin and Foligno most common linemates

Marginal improvement from 2017-18 to 2019 in basically everything. Larger improvement from 2018-19 to 2019-20 with fairly sizeable jumps in every thing (production, ice time, linemates).

What if Eriksson Ek got 15 minutes ES TOI/game + 1 minute PP TOI/game + Fiala/Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Boldy as most common linemates? Where would you honestly think that 9 goals per 82 and 36 points per 82 would go? We're also talking about 24-28 years old vs. 22/23.

Good post. It honestly wouldn't shock me if JEE became a bit of a Steve Rucchin type. A good defensive forward sandwiched between two all-star caliber wings, pushing him up into 55-65 point range in their peak years. A line with Fiala and Kaprizov both on it, if the coach decides to go that route, could probably really benefit from that type of center.

That may seem like good news, but I'll temper it by saying Steven Rucchin never won the Cup. Got within a game once, though.

 

[2Pair]

That's fine; I'm just not enamored with Danault, especially on a team that is trying to find a center solution.

Yeah, that makes sense

 

[nickschultzfan]

I think JEE is being put in deals with Dumba for a center.

Easier for a team to trade a center if they get a young one back.

 

[HotDish]

I think JEE is being put in deals with Dumba for a center.

Easier for a team to trade a center if they get a young one back.

Yesterday we had 2 centers, today we have one, now you propose we still only have one after our next trade?

can we please keep our young shutdown center please?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Yesterday we had 2 centers, today we have one, now you propose we still only have one after our next trade?

can we please keep our young shutdown center please?

If he is needed as a plus to get a proper 1C he can go then we draft Lundell and it’s all good.

 

[HotDish]

If he is needed as a plus to get a proper 1C he can go then we draft Lundell and it’s all good.

What 1C do we know that is available that JEE + Dumba + could we get? As far as I know there are not anything I would be willing to move that package for.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

What 1C do we know that is available that JEE + Dumba + could we get? As far as I know there are not anything I would be willing to move that package for.

I don’t have the slightest idea but I’m open to reading him for the right piece

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What 1C do we know that is available that JEE + Dumba + could we get? As far as I know there are not anything I would be willing to move that package for.

Monahan comes to mind right away, but I don't know if adding Dumba messes up their expansion draft plans though.

 

[Bazeek]

What 1C do we know that is available that JEE + Dumba + could we get? As far as I know there are not anything I would be willing to move that package for.

I'm not so much on the Cirelli hype train but that'd give Tampa a RD and an affordable young defensive center.

 

[AKL]

Cirelli and Monahan would both have to have significant additions to get both Dumba and Ek.

My hope is that Guerin wants to use this year to explore Ek as a potential top 6 center before the expansion draft to see if he's worth using one of the protection slots on. Then again I don't think Dumba will be around anyway so we're probably going 7-3-1.

If Dumba+Ek can get a real nice top 6 center, do it. Otherwise, figure out another way to bridge the value gap between Dumba and Monahan/Cirelli/whoever, if there is one.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I'm not so much on the Cirelli hype train but that'd give Tampa a RD and an affordable young defensive center.

Too much money going to Tampa.

 

[chchelseII]

Nobody’s been a bigger proponent of JEE over the past few years than me, but you guys have gone way overboard on his potential. JEE is a very good 3rd line center and a low end 2nd line center. If you’re expecting more than that you’re going to be very disappointed IMO.