Player Discussion Joel Eriksson Ek: The 2nd Act

[AKL]

It's small marginals, a faceoff won can be important. If a won faceoff means ~1min of puck possession, it would be 21*1min = 21 min difference in puck possesssion. It's still 15 seconds more with the puck per every single game.

It looks almost not negligible if we operate under the assumption that all 21 of those faceoffs wins translate to an entire minute of puck possession.

We're probably assuming that those 21 minutes lead to 21 goals, and that those 21 goals are all scored when the team is tied or down by 1-2 as well, right?

 

[Aurinko]

It looks almost not negligible if we operate under the assumption that all 21 of those faceoffs wins translate to an entire minute of puck possession.

We're probably assuming that those 21 minutes lead to 21 goals, and that those 21 goals are all scored when the team is tied or down by 1-2 as well, right?

Well if you have better knowledge, it would be nice to hear. 1minute might be too much, but faceoff win must mean some puck possession. Maybe it's 30 seconds per faceoff and 7,5 seconds per game then. It's still time where your opponent does not score.

 

[57special]

I think when people say faceoffs are overrated, what they're referring to is the fact that, 49.7% FO% = bad faceoff guy, 51% = good faceoff guy, despite the fact that for Ek, who took the third most faceoffs in the leauge last year, that's a difference of 21 total faceoffs won over the course of an entire season. So ~1 every 4 games. It's negligible.

The thing is that in key moments, especially playoffs, JEE(and others) are not going against just any FO guy, but the best that the other team can put out there. Those FO %'s are against the average FO guy in the league. If he went against an elite FO guy his numbers would be more like 40%.

When you win a FO on special teams it's a big deal. Means a clear for the PK, and control of the puck for the PP. In final moments of big games, i.e. when the goalie is pulled, it's an even bigger deal. I don't think it's a coincidence that FLA won the Cup with Barkov winning over 57% of his FO's.

The FO's in the neutral zone and at 5 v 5 are less important. A smart coach knows this - Lemaire sure as hell knew the difference as he was a Center playing under Bowman who always had at least one C who was terrific on draws.

 

[AKL]

The thing is that in key moments, especially playoffs, JEE(and others) are not going against just any FO guy, but the best that the other team can put out there. Those FO %'s are against the average FO guy in the league. If he went against an elite FO guy his numbers would be more like 40%.

When you win a FO on special teams it's a big deal. Means a clear for the PK, and control of the puck for the PP. In final moments of big games, i.e. when the goalie is pulled, it's an even bigger deal. I don't think it's a coincidence that FLA won the Cup with Barkov winning over 57% of his FO's.

The FO's in the neutral zone and at 5 v 5 are less important. A smart coach knows this - Lemaire sure as hell knew the difference as he was a Center playing under Bowman who always had at least one C who was terrific on draws.

I don't disagree with any of this, but that's not really the same as "he needs to go from 49.7% to 51% to be considered good". Comparing what he did last year to what McDavid did, the difference there is negligible.

Like I said, that's 21 additional wins over the season. Maybe five neutral zone, eight offensive, eight defensive, the chances any of those would have led directly to goals for or against is real low too. It's just not a meaningful difference there.

Going from 49.7 to 57? That's a bigger difference. That's 117 more faceoff wins.

It was never a post about how faceoffs don't matter at all or that he shouldn't try to improve. It was specifically the idea that 49.7 is bad and McDavid's 51 is notably better, and harping on the difference between those two figures is overrated.

I also took exception to the idea that 21 faceoffs leads to 21 more minutes of possession because, even if we don't have real numbers for what those faceoffs translate too, it's pretty unreasonable to expect it to lead to 21 minutes of possession, and that shouldn't be a controversial thing to say.

 

[TaLoN]

I think when people say faceoffs are overrated, what they're referring to is the fact that, 49.7% FO% = bad faceoff guy, 51% = good faceoff guy, despite the fact that for Ek, who took the third most faceoffs in the leauge last year, that's a difference of 21 total faceoffs won over the course of an entire season. So ~1 every 4 games. It's negligible.

Just a few faceoffs in any given game turn out to be important, winning those important faceoffs can be huge. Koivu had a tenancy to win the key draws. The current Wild lineup loses almost all of them.

That's why people want those numbers higher, it increases the odds of any given draw. That said, 51% while still losing the key draws still isn't good enough, but that can only really be assessed game by game.

 

[AKL]

Just a few faceoffs in any given game turn out to be important, winning those important faceoffs can be huge. Koivu had a tenancy to win the key draws. The current Wild lineup loses almost all of them.

That's why people want those numbers higher, it increases the odds of any given draw. That said, 51% while still losing the key draws still isn't good enough, but that can only really be assessed game by game.

I get that, that's still not really where I was going with that post.

He took 21 faceoffs per game, 84 every four games. Winning one more of those 84 every four games technically makes it more likely he wins a big one. Realistically it's a negligible difference over the course of a season. That's all.

Again, it wasn't a "we don't ever need to win faceoffs" post. It was a "the difference between what he did and what you're comparing him to is negligible" post.

 

[Wabit]

I get that, that's still not really where I was going with that post.

He took 21 faceoffs per game, 84 every four games. Winning one more of those 84 every four games technically makes it more likely he wins a big one. Realistically it's a negligible difference over the course of a season. That's all.

Again, it wasn't a "we don't ever need to win faceoffs" post. It was a "the difference between what he did and what you're comparing him to is negligible" post.

FO importance has been beat into out heads by the booth crew over the years. From talking about how that's why Koivu was out there in every late game scenario to now Walz whining about it multiple times every game.

Just watching other teams' feeds it isn't mentioned nearly as much on average. VAN was the one I noticed FO talk the most from, but they weren't a good team (prior to last season) and Horvat and Miller being good on the dot was a highlight for them to talk about.

FOs are something that need to be practiced as a team not jsut the center. Really there aren't a lot of clean FOs wins and most are contested pucks. It's up to the other 4 skaters to win those contested pucks. MN isn't good at that. They are half a beat slow on puck drop and if you watch the d-men their first move is a step back. To put it in baseball terms, it's like a a runner getting picked off 1st because he was leaning towards 2nd.

I'd say that a MN lost, what should have been a clean win back, because the other team's winger got the jump on the Wild d-men (flat-footed, leaning, stepping back, call it what you want). This happened more than 16 times all of last season. So there is your 1% difference.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I only really notice when it's >55% or <45%.

 

[Wabit]

I only really notice when it's >55% or <45%.

I'm in the 47%-53% range for not really notice/care

 

[AKL]

I'm in the 47%-53% range for not really notice/care

This is where I'm at too

 

[Digitalbooya]

I'd just like one of our guys to be over 50%

 

[Aurinko]

I only really notice when it's >55% or <45%.

Devils lost a 58%+ faceoff guy in Michael Mcleod, who had a decent 64% faceoffs overall (and 68% in d-zone) going on in 2023-2024 season before getting pulled out.

It wasn't much talked anywhere, maybe because of the touchy subject he was involved in, but the lack of such elite talent was devastating imo.


I'm not an EK hater either, he is top 5 defensive center in the league, but 50% faceoffs isn't enough. His trend has been upward, but I feel like he and the Wild should focus on it even more.

 

[57special]

There was an interesting article on the NYR's having a coach who had them turn around their grip when they were in the O or D zone so they always had a strong grip. In other words, a LHs would become a RHS for those FO's.

Their FO % went up by quite a bit compared to previous years.