Post-Game Talk: Jets Rollercoaster is now going up. Jets win 4-2

[King Woodballs]

Maybe teams look at things other than sv% when deciding who to start?

I liked the way Montoya played last night and I'm all for riding the hot hand. I think Pavelec's contract right now dictates that he's number one, rightly or wrongly. He's also been with the organization longer, has more NHL experience. These are all reasons that go into the decision making process. He's certainly not the future, but he's the right now, for the moment at least.

There is obviously a reason why he has been in only 67 games with 4 organizations in 10 years.

 

[leer2006]

I agree with this! While his offense has been a bit hit and miss, he's been very good in his own end. He really has the makings of being a very good all around forward.

I actually think if you go back to the game against Chicago you can see that it seem's that they have freed the reins on him. Totally different player when allowed to play more offensively. Makes me wonder how may points he would have right know if he wasn't asked to play so defensively for the first chunk of the season. Also like to point out that they really didn't seem to miss Kane on the ice.

 

[SensibleGuy]

So what your saying is, we don't have a starter, just two backups?

Huzzah! Now you're getting it! And we need to play whichever of our backups is best.

I'd be interested to know who were the other goalies on teams Monty has played for. I mean he could certainly have been the victim of simply having better goalies above him on the roster. He's also had injury problems that have hindered his opportunities over the years. I really don't think 60 or so games over several years in the league is necessarily a conclusive look at what a guy might be able to do.

 

[peg]

Last night they could have been in one of those cartoon bears using toilet paper commercials.

Except for a couple of Tootoo's shifts it was a very soft game by the Wings, Are you telling me it wasn't?

Please don't use the meaningless fight by the sideshow entertainment as a reason it wasn't.

How do you measure a soft game? Winnipeg out hit Detroit 22 - 18. Two nights earlier Winnipeg out hit Chicago 29 - 10. Does that mean Chicago was even softer

 

[theamazingchris]

AFAIC, if you're being out-hit, it means you have the puck more than the other team. Which is fine by me. Not to mention how terrible the NHL is at tracking what a "hit" really is.

 

[garret9]

Ya the reasons are, as much as scouts, coaches and GMs are professionals, they have been historically real ****** in evaluating & selecting talent and terrible in predicting in future success *for goalies* (edit: forgot to put for goalies). Look at players pts/gp vs $$ and then compare that to goalies career sv% vs $$. Its easy to see where GMs and company are better.

And to be frank statistical guys are only so much better. There's a lot of variance in sv% and even a dece amount of chance in one season worth of sv%.
Career numbers or even strength with 2000+ shots are pretty predictive but pretty isn't far from perfect.

In the end, when it comes to goal prevention, Montoya and Pavelec are not that different. Either has a pretty equal chance in being good or ****** this year.

 

[garret9]

AFAIC, if you're being out-hit, it means you have the puck more than the other team. Which is fine by me. Not to mention how terrible the NHL is at tracking what a "hit" really is.

Mhmm

Chicago was one of the most out hit teams in the league last season.

 

[veganhunter]

Wings fan stopping in to say great game. You dominated us on all four lines.

I also wanted to add over on the trade boards I've seen a few threads with Bogosian included and couldn't believe your homerism on the value you put on this guy. I stand corrected. This was the first game I've really focused on him and he is everything you guys praise him about. Was trying to think what it would take from the Wings because he is the exact player we need. After thinking hard I don't see a trade as we would get depleted pretty quickly of our prospect pool and NHL players.

Again great game and heck of a Dman.

906 save % over 67 games. And people are saying he's had enough of a look over the years from several teams to prove that Al Montoya just isn't starter material.

Ondrej has a 906 save % over 244 games and people here are still saying he's our best chance in net. He's the anointed #1. Something about this picture doesn't make sense.

Love this post.

 

[Potrzebie]

I've noticed a fair amount of our players "blowing a tire" (in Beyak's words) this season... Buff last night being the most high profile. Who looks after the skates? Maybe Zinger needs to get down there and show 'em how it's done.

 

[peg]

Huzzah! Now you're getting it! And we need to play whichever of our backups is best.

I'd be interested to know who were the other goalies on teams Monty has played for. I mean he could certainly have been the victim of simply having better goalies above him on the roster. He's also had injury problems that have hindered his opportunities over the years. I really don't think 60 or so games over several years in the league is necessarily a conclusive look at what a guy might be able to do.

Agreed. I think there is an argument to be made that Montoya could be a capable starter. Small sample size but over the past two years Montoya is 5 wins 2 losses and 2 shut outs with a .914 save percentage on a team that is essentially .500 over that period. Even Noel said that Montoya needs to play more to get into a rhythm, implying if he played more the results may be even better

 

[leer2006]

I've noticed a fair amount of our players "blowing a tire" (in Beyak's words) this season... Buff last night being the most high profile. Who looks after the skates? Maybe Zinger needs to get down there and show 'em how it's done.

They were pointing out on TSNJETS, They had a small delay to the 2nd period due to water in Howards crease. I have heard they are have ice issues especially on the northside behind the goalline.

 

[Aavco Cup]

@ShawnChurchill: Evander Kane is not on ice for jets. Status unclear vs Blackhawks #jets

@CJOBSports: #NHLJets HC Noel says Evander Kane will travel with team to Chicago and will be re-evaluated before game vs. #Blackhawks @JimTothCJOB

 

[Gm0ney]

There is obviously a reason why he has been in only 67 games with 4 organizations in 10 years.

I think injuries had a lot to do with it. If you look at HF's analysis from a few years back, he had some major trouble in 2005-06, a few little things in 06-07, hurt his back in 07-08... http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/alvaro_montoya/

Then in 2011 Kane put him out for a month with a concussion. He was hurt for a few weeks last season too - which cost him some starts.

 

[theamazingchris]

Ya the reasons are, as much as scouts, coaches and GMs are professionals, they have been historically real ****** in evaluating & selecting talent and terrible in predicting in future success *for goalies* (edit: forgot to put for goalies). Look at players pts/gp vs $$ and then compare that to goalies career sv% vs $$. Its easy to see where GMs and company are better.

Check the drafting record, too, if you want more evidence of that.

 

[Huffer]

They were pointing out on TSNJETS, They had a small delay to the 2nd period due to water in Howards crease. I have heard they are have ice issues especially on the northside behind the goalline.

I really hope that TNSE invests heavily in their Ice Machines. I know it hasn't been cold out, and last night could have been a unforeseen breakdown or something, but I seem to remember other nights this year where the ice didn't seem great.

With the type of players we have and their speed, having great ice to play on for 42 nights a year would be a nice thing to have.

 

[Huffer]

@ShawnChurchill: Evander Kane is not on ice for jets. Status unclear vs Blackhawks #jets

@CJOBSports: #NHLJets HC Noel says Evander Kane will travel with team to Chicago and will be re-evaluated before game vs. #Blackhawks @JimTothCJOB

Get well soon Kane!

 

[garret9]

Check the drafting record, too, if you want more evidence of that.

Have you seen Matt Pfeffier's (never spell his last name right) huge draft database of every pick and their career value (maximus linked it in the prospect thread).

Shows that the value of goalies is almost completely random relative to draft position.

 

[buggs]

They were pointing out on TSNJETS, They had a small delay to the 2nd period due to water in Howards crease. I have heard they are have ice issues especially on the northside behind the goalline.

Exactly where Bogo served up the pizza against the Ducks? Hmmm.

 

[theamazingchris]

Have you seen Matt Pfeffier's (never spell his last name right) huge draft database of every pick and their career value (maximus linked it in the prospect thread).

Shows that the value of goalies is almost completely random relative to draft position.

I saw it on reddit, actually. Yeah, it's a pretty sweet tool, I love creative info visualizations like that. shiftchart.com is probably my favourite, so thanks to you for that one.

 

[King Woodballs]

I think injuries had a lot to do with it. If you look at HF's analysis from a few years back, he had some major trouble in 2005-06, a few little things in 06-07, hurt his back in 07-08... http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/alvaro_montoya/

Then in 2011 Kane put him out for a month with a concussion. He was hurt for a few weeks last season too - which cost him some starts.

Injuries or not.
If someone thought he was worth it, they would have kept him as far as I am concerned.

 

[garret9]

Injuries or not.
If someone thought he was worth it, they would have kept him as far as I am concerned.

The question then falls to if those peoples opinions are flawless in being an appropriate evaluator.

Historically they are not.

 

[King Woodballs]

The question then falls to if those peoples opinions are flawless in being an appropriate evaluator.

Historically they are not.

4 teams?
How many would it take then?
6? 10?
There has to be a line drawn somewhere.

Yes, everyone has an opinion, and yes they are wrong on occasions.
People that work for NHL teams know far and away more than anyone else around. That is why they do what they do.
Except Mike Milbury that is.

 

[White Out 403*]

Injuries or not.
If someone thought he was worth it, they would have kept him as far as I am concerned.

This is akin to voodoo economics. "other people have passed on him =he isn't good " is not an intelligent way to run your club. If anything this begs the question why have others passed on monty and we haven't passed on Pavs yet. He has the same mediocre stats over a much larger sample size.

You say how many teams passing before a line is drawn, I then ask you woodballs how many seasons will it take for us to pass on Pavs? 4?6?

 

[King Woodballs]

This is akin to voodoo economics. "other people have passed on him =he isn't good " is not an intelligent way to run your club. If anything this begs the question why have others passed on monty and we haven't passed on Pavs yet. He has the same mediocre stats over a much larger sample size.

You say how many teams passing before a line is drawn, I then ask you woodballs how many seasons will it take for us to pass on Pavs? 4?6?

Pass on him tomorrow for what it matters to me.

 

[peg]

I had an interesting stroll through the Red Wings GDT to see if they thought that the Jets played that good or the Wings played that bad. While a few were surprised by the Jets speed, general consensus was to chalk this one up to a less than motivated Wing team playing 3 games in 4 nights. There were comments that the Jets looked like a team playing game 7 in the Stanley Cup finals, but those were the exception.

Lots of comments about how horrific our ice was and they didn't just point out Buff's trips.

Surprising how much hate their was for Babcock and how he couldn't see which players should be benched and how the lines should be assembled. I guess its tough to keep everyone happy. If they ever want to make a swap..................