Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Bob E]

2023 5th Jacob Julien 1A (primary)
2024 5th Markus Loponen 2G
2023 1st Brayden Yager 0
2023 7th Conor Levis 1G

Didn’t look like Yager played either game on weekend. Hurt? Sick?

 

[ps241]

The Moose results are odd. I don't watch the games but having our top prospects all put up modest numbers (Salomonsson notwithstanding) is a bit concerning. How much of it is team effects, how much of it is low quality support pieces? Is this a coaching issue?

Prospects that want to get to the next level (NHL) usually find a way to assert themselves in the AHL. Both Lambert and Chibby had decent results last season but there is some heavy regression going on pretty much team wide this season.

 

[Huffer]

Apparently it was cancelled because not every team in it could commit next year. Vancouver could have, but I think the suspect is Edmonton. Edmonton must have the least amount of prospects in the NHL. Jets have the same amount of draft picks as them in the last 4 years, 20, but have probably kept more of them. Oilers have less already this year ahead of the trade deadline and the draft. Jets would probably have to rely on a bunch of AHL tryout guys for their defense, even last year had 25 year old Anhorn and 24 year old Barteaux in the tourney.

Maybe one team couldn't commit because they wanted to host their own tourney. I suspect Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg still go through with some kind of tournament.

Hopefully the Jets can find some other teams and try something similar. Seemed like an interesting opportunity for the young prospects to have a few games together.

 

[Whileee]

The Moose results are odd. I don't watch the games but having our top prospects all put up modest numbers (Salomonsson notwithstanding) is a bit concerning. How much of it is team effects, how much of it is low quality support pieces? Is this a coaching issue?

Prospects that want to get to the next level (NHL) usually find a way to assert themselves in the AHL. Both Lambert and Chibby had decent results last season but there is some heavy regression going on pretty much team wide this season.

This Moose team is really woeful, especially on defense. They don't get much going offensively and are defending too much. The veteran forwards have been really under-performing... Toninato, Shaw, Ford, AJF are all well below their usual production.

Salomonsson will help.

 

[Romang67]

Walton's highlights really make him seem like a high IQ player, much more than someone who is overly reliant on physical tools. He's finding high quality spots on the ice both with his passing and his positioning very often in these clips.

 

[Romang67]

Only related to Jets prospects in that Mews went to play with Walton in Sudbury, but CHL trades crack me up:

 

[Buffdog]

Walton's highlights really make him seem like a high IQ player, much more than someone who is overly reliant on physical tools. He's finding high quality spots on the ice both with his passing and his positioning very often in these clips.

Agreed. He's big and uses his body to protect the puck but it's not like he's using his size to manhandle smaller guys to get his points

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Walton's highlights really make him seem like a high IQ player, much more than someone who is overly reliant on physical tools. He's finding high quality spots on the ice both with his passing and his positioning very often in these clips.

Is Walton a candidate to get traded to contender at the trade deadline or will Sudbury trade to get some secondary scoring?

Edit: looks like Sudbury is going all in .

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Only related to Jets prospects in that Mews went to play with Walton in Sudbury, but CHL trades crack me up:

If the news is to be believed, Mews is likely going NCAA after this season.

 

[voyageur]

This Moose team is really woeful, especially on defense. They don't get much going offensively and are defending too much. The veteran forwards have been really under-performing... Toninato, Shaw, Ford, AJF are all well below their usual production.

Salomonsson will help.

I'm not sure if you meant JAD instead of Ford because Parker Ford is only in his 2nd full season, age wise rookie Dylan Anhorn would be more veteran than him. And his first full season he was on the Moose's best line down the stretch, with Reichel and Viel, both gone. This year it's Conley and Suess. You see him in the right places all the time in the highlights. In front of the net on PP1. On the PK. I think he's a legit prospect, but at 24 years old probably ready for the next step.

It's still a mystery to me how the team announces Toninato as captain and midseason Jets recall him, proceeded by the Moose going on a winning streak. What's really going on with this team? I'd say not only the vets aren't performing, but Zhilkin, Wagner, Kuzmin and Bauer as prospects aren't taking the next step.

You'd have to say that the current AHL vets that the team is relying on: Shaw, AJF, JAD, who form one line, and Suess, Empey and Sauntner, are on the underwhelming side.

Anhorn has stepped up of late, it looks like he is the guy the Jets wanted to replace Capobianco, with his skating. Salomonsson is needed .

I just wonder if it's trying to find some chemistry out of all these new faces, and some returning ones.

And having goalies that struggled to make saves, trying to bounce back.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

The release on both the wrister and the snapper looked pretty elite by Barlow!

 

[BoneDocUK]

The release on both the wrister and the snapper looked pretty elite by Barlow!

Yep, the kid can shoot. I wonder about his passing game a bit -- maybe he can work on a more KGC-esque playmaking element as he continues to (starts to?) develop.

 

[Whileee]

I think it's too early to write off Barlow. I think he peaked earlier in his OHL career and then ran into some injury and team issues that sapped him over the past year or so. In the past, he's been more than a pure shooter, showing a lot of energy and smarts with good work on the PK. I still think he needs to develop himself physically to improve his quickness and endurance and to improve his skating agility a bit. But I think he has puck skills and some vision and has had a good work rate in the past, to go along with his outstanding shot. I'm hoping he'll find his stride on a contender this season and then have a very good summer preparing for his transition to pro hockey next year.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think it's too early to write off Barlow. I think he peaked earlier in his OHL career and then ran into some injury and team issues that sapped him over the past year or so. In the past, he's been more than a pure shooter, showing a lot of energy and smarts with good work on the PK. I still think he needs to develop himself physically to improve his quickness and endurance and to improve his skating agility a bit. But I think he has puck skills and some vision and has had a good work rate in the past, to go along with his outstanding shot. I'm hoping he'll find his stride on a contender this season and then have a very good summer preparing for his transition to pro hockey next year.

That's totally fair. Hoping for the best for him.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think it's too early to write off Barlow. I think he peaked earlier in his OHL career and then ran into some injury and team issues that sapped him over the past year or so. In the past, he's been more than a pure shooter, showing a lot of energy and smarts with good work on the PK. I still think he needs to develop himself physically to improve his quickness and endurance and to improve his skating agility a bit. But I think he has puck skills and some vision and has had a good work rate in the past, to go along with his outstanding shot. I'm hoping he'll find his stride on a contender this season and then have a very good summer preparing for his transition to pro hockey next year.

Too early to write him off, but not too early for some legit concerns.

Year	Goals/Game	Assists/Game	Total Points/Game
D -1	0.51	0.29	0.80
Draft Year	0.78	0.56	1.34
D +1	0.80	0.36	1.16
D +2 (current)	0.55	0.34	0.89
D +2 (minus slow start)	0.71	0.39	1.10

It looks like his assists/game and points/game may have been outliers in his draft year. His goals/game is solid, but he's kind of plateaued. And the goalscoring seems heavily power play dependent.

Even ignoring his slow star, he's not showing improvement. His D+2, he should be ripping it up. It's not encouraging.

 

[AtomicJets]

Too early to write him off, but not too early for some legit concerns.

Year	Goals/Game	Assists/Game	Total Points/Game
D -1	0.51	0.29	0.80
Draft Year	0.78	0.56	1.34
D +1	0.80	0.36	1.16
D +2 (current)	0.55	0.34	0.89
D +2 (minus slow start)	0.71	0.39	1.10

It looks like his assists/game and points/game may have been outliers in his draft year. His goals/game is solid, but he's kind of plateaued. And the goalscoring seems heavily power play dependent.

Even ignoring his slow star, he's not showing improvement. His D+2, he should be ripping it up. It's not encouraging.

I mean what do you expect....? It's kinda funny to look at the most consistent goal scorer in the OHL over the last 4 years and say, oh that means he's plateaued. He'll almost certainly go over 30 for the fourth straight year and that is unheard of at the junior level. It's not a bad thing.

He's on the ice a lot less this season than he was on Owen Sound where he was THE GUY, compared to Oshawa who is loaded with star players. He accepted a lesser role to play for a better team.

And I know stats guys hate to hear it, but being a cheat code on the power play is not a bad thing. It's actually an in-demand skill on 32 NHL teams.

I beg you, sit down and watch a few of his games rather than just looking at goals and assists. He's a stud, Oshawa fans love him and there's a reason for that. He scored when he came up to play with the Moose, he scored for the Jets in preseason. It's not a coincidence. He's got a nose for the net that is extremely rare to find and can't be taught. That's what's so exciting about him.

 

[Gm0ney]

I mean what do you expect....? It's kinda funny to look at the most consistent goal scorer in the OHL over the last 4 years and say, oh that means he's plateaued. He'll almost certainly go over 30 for the fourth straight year and that is unheard of at the junior level. It's not a bad thing.

He's on the ice a lot less this season than he was on Owen Sound where he was THE GUY, compared to Oshawa who is loaded with star players. He accepted a lesser role to play for a better team.

And I know stats guys hate to hear it, but being a cheat code on the power play is not a bad thing. It's actually an in-demand skill on 32 NHL teams.

I beg you, sit down and watch a few of his games rather than just looking at goals and assists. He's a stud, Oshawa fans love him and there's a reason for that. He scored when he came up to play with the Moose, he scored for the Jets in preseason. It's not a coincidence. He's got a nose for the net that is extremely rare to find and can't be taught. That's what's so exciting about him.

I expect to see improvement and not deterioration. I'm just saying his statistical path is a bit of a red flag.

I did note that his goalscoring, at least, is consistent. I'm not sure if consistency over 4 years in Junior is really a marker of a bright future in the NHL though. At least his goal scoring doesn't seem to be an outlier, but he hasn't improved since his draft year...which is the issue.

It also seems a bit concerning that he's taking a back seat to other (better?) players as well. "Oh he's accepted a lesser role - he's not THE GUY anymore" doesn't seem like a particularly good indicator of future success.

Anyway, we'll see what happens, eventually...

 

[AtomicJets]

I expect to see improvement and not deterioration. I'm just saying his statistical path is a bit of a red flag.

I did note that his goalscoring, at least, is consistent. I'm not sure if consistency over 4 years in Junior is really a marker of a bright future in the NHL though. At least his goal scoring doesn't seem to be an outlier, but he hasn't improved since his draft year...which is the issue.

It also seems a bit concerning that he's taking a back seat to other (better?) players as well. "Oh he's accepted a lesser role - he's not THE GUY anymore" doesn't seem like a particularly good indicator of future success.

Anyway, we'll see what happens, eventually...

What a load of bunk. Zero analysis here. Just box score watching.

 

[Gm0ney]

What a load of bunk. Zero analysis here. Just box score watching.

I'm not just making this up off the top of my head. There's a real correlation between points/game in D+0, D+1 and D+2 and making it to the NHL. You want to see those numbers improve every year and if they don't, it's a red flag.

Jets CHL prospects taken in the 1st or 2nd since 2011:

	D+0	D+1	D+2
Scheifele	1.14	1.34	1.76
Lowry	0.68	1.02	1.22
Sutter	0.84	0.33	0.51
Morrissey	0.56	0.67	1.24
Petan	1.69	1.79	1.64
Ehlers	1.65	1.98	NHL
Harkins	1.13	0.83	1.12
Stanley	0.27	0.49	0.69
Barlow	1.34	1.16	0.89 (so far)

It's not a guarantee or anything, but in this sample, the ones who improved each year have had far more success (Scheifele, Lowry, Morrissey, Ehlers, Stanley) than the ones who dropped off or stagnated (Sutter, Petan, Harkins...).

So yeah, that's what I expect.

Here's Walton and He's D+0 and D+1 so far, if anyone's interested:

	D+0	D+1 (so far)	D+2
Walton	0.66	1.77	TBD
He	0.83	1.38	TBD

Walton going from 0.66 to 1.77 in one year is something else. Even if he plays the rest of the season and doesn't score another point, that would leave him at 1.01 p/gp.

 

[Whis]

Haven't watched a Barlow game since his time with Moose last year, but as long as his skating is average - that shot will get him a long look in the NHL.

 

[Jets]

I'm not just making this up off the top of my head. There's a real correlation between points/game in D+0, D+1 and D+2 and making it to the NHL. You want to see those numbers improve every year and if they don't, it's a red flag.

Jets CHL prospects taken in the 1st or 2nd since 2011:

	D+0	D+1	D+2
Scheifele	1.14	1.34	1.76
Lowry	0.68	1.02	1.22
Sutter	0.84	0.33	0.51
Morrissey	0.56	0.67	1.24
Petan	1.69	1.79	1.64
Ehlers	1.65	1.98	NHL
Harkins	1.13	0.83	1.12
Stanley	0.27	0.49	0.69
Barlow	1.34	1.16	0.89 (so far)

It's not a guarantee or anything, but in this sample, the ones who improved each year have had far more success (Scheifele, Lowry, Morrissey, Ehlers, Stanley) than the ones who dropped off or stagnated (Sutter, Petan, Harkins...).

So yeah, that's what I expect.

Here's Walton and He's D+0 and D+1 so far, if anyone's interested:

	D+0	D+1 (so far)	D+2
Walton	0.66	1.77	TBD
He	0.83	1.38	TBD

Walton going from 0.66 to 1.77 in one year is something else. Even if he plays the rest of the season and doesn't score another point, that would leave him at 1.01 p/gp.

Yeah idk why we're all so focused on Ovechkin vs Gretzky for the NHL goal scoring title. It should be Gretzky vs Walton.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Yeah idk why we're all so focused on Ovechkin vs Gretzky for the NHL goal scoring title. It should be Gretzky vs Walton.

Or Gretzky vs Barlow.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

Or Gretzky vs Barlow. V

Barlow’s one-timer is comparable to OV . He needs to make it to the moose first though

 

[flin flon bombers]

No doubt he's winning out on plays because of his physical advantages, but 6'6" is still a physical advantage in the AHL/ NHL, and unlike some big fellas Walton seems to have skating, hands and shooting that are tracking well also. Haven't seen enough of him to add anything useful firsthand but several who do have noted his playmaking and vision as positives, and his engagement when not scoring as a past negative. I guess we'll see over the next few years but watching prospects grow into their games is a key part of fandom for me, and I'm genuinely uninterested in trotting out negatives at this point. Jets fans have been short on great prospects for a while now, and I'm here for the ride up the rollercoaster.

He also an intriguing prospect -- skill, physicality, speed and a relentless motor make him potentially a very useful prospect for a Jets team and fanbase that have been wanting a scoring superpest for years, Pionk notwithstanding.

If the chips fall perfectly, the next 2-4 years might being a solid 2C with defence and some offence in Yager, a strong top 4 all-situations RHD in Salmo, a physically dominant forward with offence in Walton and a quick, demon forechecker who can transition, defend and pot greasy goals and be a netfront presence also in He.

Given how few picks the Jets have had in the last 3-4 years, and with none in the highest end, this would be a pretty great haul. Not as much pedigree and overall eliteness as in the glory years of Schief, JMo, Laine, Ehlers and KFC, but hopefully a solid impact and triple shot of energy into an aging lineup.

Yeah one or all could bust. But until they do, we should dare to dream. And dream big. There ain't no harm in it, and plenty of hope and adrenaline along the way.

I wouldn't call walton physically dominant,he is more middleton than keith primaue in the physicality department,but he has talent