Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure, but my point is that tanking is a very uncertain process, and can actually damage a franchise for an extended period of time, without assurance of a long-term payoff.

I think it's reasonable to explore other models for building a contender, including through the draft. My preference is for the Jets to add an extra 1st round pick (or equivalent) every couple or 3 years as they cycle out RFAs that don't want to stay long-term (e.g. Copp, PLD, Trouba) and try to hit on top players that way. Vilardi likely slots ahead of Glass (#6) and Patrick (#2) in his draft class. Lambert might end up top 15 from last year.

I guess my thinking is that when the rest of the NHL zigs, sometimes the best approach is to "zag". With so many teams tanking, maybe there is value in scooping up young talent depth from capped out contenders that tanking teams don't want to add.

Sure there is value in scooping up depth and other small game measures to improve. That's how you rise to the mushy middle and how you stay there.

Vilardi is not going to pass Glass and Patrick because he is so good but because they have disappointed. And yes, high picks disappointing supports your point. There will always be the Yakupovs and Patricks. But you don't get the top talents without drafting high. And timing matters.

I guess there is a question of just how high does your talent need to rank in order for your team to truly contend. I don't think you need to have a McDavid or a Bedard to do it and having them doesn't guarantee a Cup either. But you do need a higher level of talent than what you get outside the top 15 or so picks.

What was the last team to win the Cup without a top 5 drafted player on their roster?

 

[Weezeric]

Sure there is value in scooping up depth and other small game measures to improve. That's how you rise to the mushy middle and how you stay there.

Vilardi is not going to pass Glass and Patrick because he is so good but because they have disappointed. And yes, high picks disappointing supports your point. There will always be the Yakupovs and Patricks. But you don't get the top talents without drafting high. And timing matters.

I guess there is a question of just how high does your talent need to rank in order for your team to truly contend. I don't think you need to have a McDavid or a Bedard to do it and having them doesn't guarantee a Cup either. But you do need a higher level of talent than what you get outside the top 15 or so picks.

What was the last team to win the Cup without a top 5 drafted player on their roster?

Who did Vegas draft in the top 5 again?….

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Sure there is value in scooping up depth and other small game measures to improve. That's how you rise to the mushy middle and how you stay there.

Vilardi is not going to pass Glass and Patrick because he is so good but because they have disappointed. And yes, high picks disappointing supports your point. There will always be the Yakupovs and Patricks. But you don't get the top talents without drafting high. And timing matters.

I guess there is a question of just how high does your talent need to rank in order for your team to truly contend. I don't think you need to have a McDavid or a Bedard to do it and having them doesn't guarantee a Cup either. But you do need a higher level of talent than what you get outside the top 15 or so picks.

What was the last team to win the Cup without a top 5 drafted player on their roster?

I think a better question is How many teams with a top 5 player never win the cup

 

[Whileee]

Sure there is value in scooping up depth and other small game measures to improve. That's how you rise to the mushy middle and how you stay there.

Vilardi is not going to pass Glass and Patrick because he is so good but because they have disappointed. And yes, high picks disappointing supports your point. There will always be the Yakupovs and Patricks. But you don't get the top talents without drafting high. And timing matters.

I guess there is a question of just how high does your talent need to rank in order for your team to truly contend. I don't think you need to have a McDavid or a Bedard to do it and having them doesn't guarantee a Cup either. But you do need a higher level of talent than what you get outside the top 15 or so picks.

What was the last team to win the Cup without a top 5 drafted player on their roster?

You don't need to draft one, if you can trade for one. Vegas traded lower picks / prospects for Stone (Brannstrom) and Eichel (Krebs). Pietrangelo was a UFA signing.

Lots of teams with multiple top-5 picks are still spinning their wheels, and other teams that have tanked ended up with meh prospects.

My point is that if you are one of 10-12 teams trying to use the same "tank" strategy, you can easily end up in the "mushy middle", because the other teams that have been tanking still have other advantages that the Jets might not have.

I think the Jets might need to try a somewhat different strategy to differentiate themselves, and maybe it starts with a faster cycling of players through their contractual phases, benefiting from cheap RFA contracts and trading for players / prospects / picks before UFA (like PLD). If the Jets can build very good affordable depth, then if they hit on a couple of picks (like Dallas did with Robertson and Hintz), then they could move into contender status.

I think a better question is How many teams with a top 5 player never win the cup

The large majority of them don't win. Buffalo drafted a "generational" talent in Eichel and he won the cup with a different team.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

You don't need to draft one, if you can trade for one. Vegas traded lower picks / prospects for Stone (Brannstrom) and Eichel (Krebs). Pietrangelo was a UFA signing.

Lots of teams with multiple top-5 picks are still spinning their wheels, and other teams that have tanked ended up with meh prospects.

My point is that if you are one of 10-12 teams trying to use the same "tank" strategy, you can easily end up in the "mushy middle", because the other teams that have been tanking still have other advantages that the Jets might not have.

I think the Jets might need to try a somewhat different strategy to differentiate themselves, and maybe it starts with a faster cycling of players through their contractual phases, benefiting from cheap RFA contracts and trading for players / prospects / picks before UFA (like PLD). If the Jets can build very good affordable depth, then if they hit on a couple of picks (like Dallas did with Robertson and Hintz), then they could move into contender status.


The large majority of them don't win. Buffalo drafted a "generational" talent in Eichel and he won the cup with a different team.

We had 2 top 5 players and never won the cup. Don't get me wrong though they certainly help but you can also acquire talent when the time is right as well.

Look at the Oilers they probably got a 2 year window to win because I think Leon is going to walk into free agency and become a rich man and choose where he wants to live

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Who did Vegas draft in the top 5 again?….

I didn't say they had to have been drafted by the team. The point is that you need high end talent that is very rarely drafted later. And no, having some # of highly drafted players does not automatically get you a Cup, or even come close.
They had Eichel, 2 OA
Pietrangelo, 4 OA
Kessel, 5 OA

We had Scheifele, 7 OA
Dubois, 3 OA
Wheeler, 5 OA
Ehlers, 9 OA
Perfetti, 10 OA
Gagner, 6 OA (a long time ago )
Nino, 5
3 of those are gone already and a couple are beyond being core pieces. I just made this list for comparison.
I didn't look past top 5 for Vegas because that is the question I asked.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think a better question is How many teams with a top 5 player never win the cup

Nope. That is a different question altogether.
There are plenty of those. Getting high picks is no guarantee of winning the Cup, or even a Conference. That is conceded. The question is, is it necessary to have some # of top 5(ish) players to win. The statement is that you can't win without highly drafted players.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Nope. That is a different question altogether.
There are plenty of those. Getting high picks is no guarantee of winning the Cup, or even a Conference. That is conceded. The question is, is it necessary to have some # of top 5(ish) players to win. The statement is that you can't win without highly drafted players.

I think your D is more important then your forwards. That is what I believe. When we were really good I would put our D group up against anyone. I think the last few Stanley cup winners D corps were fantastic.

That and some decent forward depth and solid goaltending wins you cups

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You don't need to draft one, if you can trade for one. Vegas traded lower picks / prospects for Stone (Brannstrom) and Eichel (Krebs). Pietrangelo was a UFA signing.

Lots of teams with multiple top-5 picks are still spinning their wheels, and other teams that have tanked ended up with meh prospects.

My point is that if you are one of 10-12 teams trying to use the same "tank" strategy, you can easily end up in the "mushy middle", because the other teams that have been tanking still have other advantages that the Jets might not have.

I think the Jets might need to try a somewhat different strategy to differentiate themselves, and maybe it starts with a faster cycling of players through their contractual phases, benefiting from cheap RFA contracts and trading for players / prospects / picks before UFA (like PLD). If the Jets can build very good affordable depth, then if they hit on a couple of picks (like Dallas did with Robertson and Hintz), then they could move into contender status.


The large majority of them don't win. Buffalo drafted a "generational" talent in Eichel and he won the cup with a different team.

I'm not insisting that a tank is the only way. In fact I'm not proposing it in any way at the moment. I'm only saying that you need some top end talent. Get it any way you can.

The ideas for optimizing what the Jets have available are fine. I agree. But building depth alone won't do it. And I don't think that counting on hitting big on a couple of later picks is a viable strategy.

Trading quantity for quality can happen occasionally. We keep doing the opposite of that. It would be nice to be on the other end some time. But first you need to accumulate the quantity.

This is not a tank vs no tank discussion. It is a mid to late drafted talent vs early drafted talent discussion.

Buffalo didn't win a cup but Eichel did, and that is my point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think your D is more important then your forwards. That is what I believe. When we were really good I would put our D group up against anyone. I think the last few Stanley cup winners D corps were fantastic.

That and some decent forward depth and solid goaltending wins you cups

I don't know that it is as simple as that. Both are important. An outstanding D corps can carry a flawed F corps, as long as that F corps has some talent. But you could reverse that too. I think solid D is more consistent than F. Scorers are streaky and an entire F corps of good players can go dry for streches. And you can draft top end Dmen a lot later than top end F. Carolina's Pesce was 66th and Slavin was 120th. Buff was 245th. But it is easier to find them higher in the draft.

You hear it in all sports, defense wins championships. But no one wins a 0-0 game. Defense is more reliable and predictable but you need to score to win. OTOH, a 2-1 win counts exactly the same as a 5-1 win.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I am off next week have to take in a day or two there if I can escape the wife

 

[Gil Fisher]

I am off next week have to take in a day or two there if I can escape the wife

Plenty of interest.

Lambert
Lucius
McGroarty
Barlow
Chibrikov
Zhilkin
Wagner
Salmonsson
Kuzmin

and the rest of the 2023 class

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

I'll be stuck at work, but thanks in advance to whoever makes it out there and gives the rest of us a report! There's been some great stuff posted in the past, glad the dev camp is back!

 

[Atoyot]

Surprised Johannesson is making the trip.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Good to see they snagged both Carson Golders. Don't want another Sebastian Aho situation. You know, wondering did we get the right one?

 

[GJF]

For the first time in years (I know technically there wasn't a Tournament Last year anyway) I'm excited about the Prospect Camp.

 

[ennsjd07]

Is it just me or does it seem like behind Salomonsson is basically… no one… in the defensive prospect pool (now that Heinola, Samberg, and Chisholm don’t count…)

 

[lanky]

Is it just me or does it seem like behind Salomonsson is basically… no one… in the defensive prospect pool (now that Heinola, Samberg, and Chisholm don’t count…)

Lundmark could be a player.

 

[Sweech]

I so wish we had found a way to get Rashevsky to have crossed over.

 

[None]

Is it just me or does it seem like behind Salomonsson is basically… no one… in the defensive prospect pool (now that Heinola, Samberg, and Chisholm don’t count…)

Kuzmin could eventually be a Pionk/Gostisbehere/Barrie type offensive defenseman.

 

[Flair Hay]

They might be trying to weaponize cap space so they can take on contracts with draft picks like Chicago just did with Bailey. They also need to keep cash to slightly overpay the RFA’s they want to keep and UFA’s they want to attract. Winnipeg as a city doesn’t have much to offer, so paying more than market value might be inevitable.

I'd say they've shown a hesitancy towards doing this as well

They've never been open to buying draft picks for millions of dollars or retaining money on outgoing players

I imagine cost/value is one of the KPI's TNSE uses to evaluate performance and not just buy value at any cost like some other organizations (TOR CHI PHI NYR MON) do

I so wish we had found a way to get Rashevsky to have crossed over.

I imagine after this KHL deal he will give it a go for a year

 

[Flair Hay]

Also, why not for fun

Lucius
McGroarty
Barlow
Lambert
Salmonsson
Heinola
DiVicentis
Chibrikov
Rashevsky

Not sure anyone else play an NHL game

I hate putting Ville there, but as far as NHL value... tell me I'm wrong

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Plenty of interest.

Lambert
Lucius
McGroarty
Barlow
Chibrikov
Zhilkin
Wagner
Salmonsson
Kuzmin

and the rest of the 2023 class

Despite how excited I am about the first 5 especially, I'm really looking forward to hearing about Milic and DiVincentiis and how they stack up against each other through the week. I hope someone gets a mic in front of Flats at the end.

**Edit** oops, nvm
DiVincentiis is doomed to failure. Named OHL Goaltender of the Year, a pure kiss of death for a goaltending prospect. Jordan Binnington is (a massive outlier and) the all-time greatest recipient, followed by Andrew Raycroft. I'm not even going to look for comparables to Milic because after what I just found out, it seems I can't handle the truth.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Despite how excited I am about the first 5 especially, I'm really looking forward to hearing about Milic and DiVincentiis and how they stack up against each other through the week. I hope someone gets a mic in front of Flats at the end.

**Edit** oops, nvm
DiVincentiis is doomed to failure. Named OHL Goaltender of the Year, a pure kiss of death for a goaltending prospect. Jordan Binnington is (a massive outlier and) the all-time greatest recipient, followed by Andrew Raycroft. I'm not even going to look for comparables to Milic because after what I just found out, it seems I can't handle the truth.

Yeah. I don't believe in goaltenders until they're thirty and then I want them traded for futures.